Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS
AGNT40 KWNM 230732
Marine Weather Discussion for N Atlantic Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
332 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017
.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Atlantic Ocean W of 50W from 30N to 50N.
Summary...The 00z ncep surface analysis shows a 999 mb low
centered over central nova scotia, with an associated cold front
arcing e of the nt1 and nrn nt2 waters. The analysis also shows
a strong high pres ridge building e and se into the offshore
waters. Latest available ascat hi-res and ascat passes from a few
hours ago show 25 to 35 kt winds over almost the entire offshore
waters forecast area, with the 35 kt winds concentrated over the
nt1 and nrn nt2 waters.
Models...The 00z medium range models are in good overall
agreement across the offshore waters for today into fri, so the
representative 00z gfs 10m/30m solution with the stability smart
tool will be used for the wind grids during this timeframe. The
gfs is 5 to 10 kt stronger than the other models with the sw flow
over the nt1 and nrn nt2 waters for later fri and fri night, and
also the 00z gfs is a little faster than most of the models with
the cold front sweeping over the nt1 waters for fri night
through sat night. So the more representative 00z ecmwf will be
used for late fri through the rest of the forecast period, but
with a small wind boost due to the low bias of the ecmwf winds.
Seas...Both the 00z wna wavewatch and 00z ecmwf wam initialized
well over the coastal/offshore waters. The models are in decent
agreement across the offshore waters during the forecast period,
although the 00z ecmwf wam trends a few feet higher with the
seas at times. Will go with a 50/50 blend of 00z wavewatch/wam
through the entire forecast period in order to resolve the model
.Extratropical Storm Surge Guidance...N/A.
.NT1 New England Waters...
.ANZ800...Gulf of Maine...
.NT2 Mid-Atlantic Waters...
.ANZ905...The Great South Channel to the Hague Line...
.Forecaster Scovil. Ocean Prediction Center.