Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGNT40 KWNM 051928
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
328 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.


MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
MAINLY LGT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WEAK STNRY NR 36-37N
OVER THE OFFSHR WATERS WILL RMN STNRY INTO MON WHILE RMNG CONTG TO
WEAKEN...LEAVING BROAD HIGH PRES OVR THR WRN ATLC AND LGT SRLY
WINDS OVR THE WATERS BY LGT MON.

NEXT FTR TO AFFECT THE WATERS IS THE APPRCHNG COLD FRNT FCST TO
MOVE SE PAST THE ST LRNC RVR TUE NGT. WL STAY WITH THE GFS 10M
WINDS WHICH ARE SMLT TO EMCWF/UKMET WINDS OF 20 KT KT MAX. FRONT
IS FCST TO SLOWLY PUSH SE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NGT. THE
GFS IS A SLOW OUTLIER...BEING SLGTLY SLOWER THEN THE ECMWF AND
MORE SO COMPARED TO THE UKMET/GEM.

BY LATE THU...THE ECMWF/UKMET/GEM PUSH THE WKNG FRONT S PAST THE
SRN NEW ENGLAND WATERS WHILE THE GFS HANGS THE FRONT W TO E ACROSS
THE NEW ENGLAND WATERS. WIND DRTCN IS THE DFFRC HERE AS WINDS WL
RMN LGT. BY LATE FRI...MODELS AGREE ON FRONT FLOATING S TO NR BALT
CNYN. TIMING S WK LOWS FCST TO SLIDE SE AND E ALONG THE FRONT THU
NGT AND FRI AND ARE DFFCT TO PIN DWN. THE GFS SOLUTIO N RMNS
FAIRLY INOCULOUS...SO WL STAY WITH IT. FOR FRI AND FRI NGT...THE
GLOABL MODELS DVRGE WITH EACH FCSTG A UNIQUE SOLUTION. THE WPC
MANUAL PROG LEAN TWDS THE ECMWF...SO WL BLEND THE GFS WITH THE
ECMWF FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT.


.SEAS...THE NOAA WAVEWATCH III MODEL INITLZD WELL...AS DID THE
ECMWF WAM. THE NEW ECMWF WAM IS NOT AVBL PAST 12 HOUR FCST WILL
CONTINUE ALONG WITH THE WAVEWATCH...AS IT WAS USED IN THE PRVS
FCST.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER PROSISE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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