Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGXX40 KNHC 281849
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
149 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A NE-SW RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS SHIFTING E AS A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY FROM THE SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST TO THE MEXICO
COAST NEAR 23N98W CONTINUES EASTWARD. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE BASIN IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FRONT AS WELL AS PATCHY FOG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE POST
FRONTAL NORTHERLY FLOW IS CURRENTLY 20-25 KT...AND EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 25-30 KT WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM
22-27N DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. THESE NW WINDS W OF THE
FRONT WILL DIMINISH TO 10-20 KT LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT REACHES
FROM MOBILE BAY TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. CURRENT GUIDANCE
STILL SUGGESTS THE FRONT TO STALL FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE
EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ON TUE...WITH REMNANTS OF THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FRONT DISSIPATING THROUGH WED. MOISTURE GUIDANCE
HOLDS ONTO THE REMNANTS OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL DRIFT W AND WEAKEN TO A NW-SE TROUGH OVER THE SW GULF
ON WED...BUT ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A 5-10 KT WIND SHIFT. BY THEN THE
GRADIENT WILL FURTHER TIGHTEN ACROSS THE NW AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF
WITH NE 15-20 KT CONDITIONS ON TUE NIGHT INCREASING TO NE 20-25
KT OVER THE NW GULF ON WED. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND
ACROSS MEXICO ON THU NIGHT AS 15-20 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF ON FRI.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA ANCHORED NEAR BERMUDA WILL MAINTAIN NE
25-30 KT CONDITIONS ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH THU NIGHT
SURROUNDED BY NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM
GENERALLY 10N-17N BETWEEN 69W-82W. THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
RELAX EARLY THIS WEEK INTO MID WEEK WITH THIS SURROUNDING AREA
SHRINKING TO THE S OF 15N BETWEEN 71W-80W ON TUE-THU. GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING A MUCH LARGER AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS OVER THE WATERS S
OF 14N BETWEEN 72W-79W ON THU NIGHT...BUT THIS MAY CHANGE IN
FUTURE MODEL RUNS. A SMALL AREA OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA TONIGHT. NE SWELLS ARE
CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS E OF 68W WITH
COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT REACHING THE NE AND E CARIBBEAN PASSAGES
TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. THE NE SWELL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
PROPAGATE S ACROSS THE WATERS E OF THE WINDWARDS REACHING THE N
COAST OF S AMERICA BETWEEN 55W-61W TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
WED.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MED-HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A COLD FRONT IS WEAKENING FROM 18N55W TO PUERTO RICO TO 20N71W.
THE REMNANTS WILL GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY AS A SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS SE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N65W TODAY WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING WSW TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. NE-E 15-20 KT
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 23N E OF
70W AND EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUE. EXPECT SOUTHERLY 10-15
KT FLOW N OF THE RIDGE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EMERGING OFF THE SE
U.S. COAST MON NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON WED WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT
STALLING FROM 27N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON THU INTO THU NIGHT.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE DISSIPATED ON FRI. EXPECT ONLY
NORTHERLY 10-15 KT CONDITIONS W OF THE FRONT.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.


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