Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGPN40 KWNM 270158
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
658 PM PDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. THE 18Z GFS/NAM ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR PREVIOUS 12Z RUNS...AND ALSO
MATCH UP WELL WITH 12Z ECMWF/UKMET/GEM THROUGH MOST OF THE FCST
PERIOD. THE 00Z SEA STATE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT OBSERVED SEAS
MATCHED UP WELL WITH THE MWW3 VALUES WITH SEAS WITHIN A FT OF THE
MODEL.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

12Z GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGRMT THRU MOST OF THE FCST
PERIOD...WITH A FEW MINOR DIFFERENCES NOTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FCST PERIOD. WILL POPULATE WIND GRIDS WITH 10M WINDS FROM THE 00Z
GFS THRU 00Z SUN...THEN SWITCH OVER TO THE 12Z ECMWF THEREAFTER.

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU THE FCST PERIOD AS
EPAC HIGH AND THE CSTL TROF OFF NRN AND CNTRL CALIF CONTINUE TO BE
THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYERS THRU MOST OF THE FCST PERIOD. LATEST
GLOBAL MODELS STILL SUGGEST A SMALL AREA OF HIGHER WINDS
CONCENTRATED JUST OFF PT ST GEORGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. WILL CAP WINDS TO 25 KT IN THE OFFSHR
WATERS...WITH HIGHER WINDS PSBL IN THE ADJACENT CSTL WATERS.

OTW...TROF OFF VANCOUVER ISLAND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THRU THU
NIGHT...WITH WINDS TO 25 KT PSBL IN THE NRN WASH WATERS. GFS DOES
CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME WINDS TO 30 KT ASSOC WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT
KEEP IT JUST N OF THE OFFSHR WATERS.

IN THE EXTENDED...RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN SAT AND SAT
NIGHT...ALLOWING A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES TO APPROACH THE WATERS
FROM THE W. SOME DISCREPENCIES AS TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW...WITH
THE PREFERRED ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTION BRINGING LOW INTO THE NRN CALIF
WATERS SUN NIGHT...A BIT FURTHER N THAN THE GFS SOLUTION.

.SEAS...12Z ENP VERSION OF WWIII WITHIN A FT OR TWO OF CURRENT
OBS. WILL POPULATE WAVE GRIDS FROM 12Z ENP THRU 00Z SUN...THEN
USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE ECMWF WAVE AND THE ENP FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FCST PERIOD AS BELIEVE ECMWF WAVE A BIT TOO HIGH DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN CALIF WATERS.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.



.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER KOSIER/ACHORN. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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