Marine Interpretation Message
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134
AGPN40 KWNM 270259
MIMPAC

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
759 PM PDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

I dont plan on making any changes to the current grids or
associated text forecast in the next package. The GFS is still
advertising the chance of gales south of Point Conception Monday
night.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

The satellite images still show most of the high clouds moving
inland east of the region with the lightning density map also
showing no lightning strikes across the region. The SREF model
still has PROB 0 for severe TSTMS over the region and that
remains the same through the short term. The latest observations
including scatterometer pass at 1750Z show highest winds in the
gale force range over the far northeast waters. Winds are still
generally from the south over the eastern parts of the north
waters and W to SW over the wester portion. Otherwise winds are W
to NW over the central and southern waters. At 1800Z the NCEP
map has complex low pressure with one center 987 MB near 50N140W
has its occluded front through the eastern portion of the
northern waters then continues as a warm front just east of the
forcast region while it cold front stretches southwest across the
central California waters. High pressure 1028 MB west of the
southern waters extends its ridge east into the southern waters
and that has maintained a slack pressure gradient south of 35N.

The models GFS/CMC/NOGAPS/UKMEHR/ECMWFHR/NAM have all generally
initialized well with the 12Z surface observations especially
with the pressure field. There are some differences on the wind
speed over the northern waters up to 15 kt. GFS seem to be the
most aggressive while UKMETHR and ECMWFHR are on the low side.
Otherwise the models agree on gales over the far north waters.
Will continue with GFS. In the short term, low pressure to the
west of the north waters will move east passing just north of the
region while the associated occluded and warm fronts move east
and cold front dipping southeast.

.SEAS...The largest seas are still over the northern waters with
peak at 11 ft. Seas are relatively large elsewhere ranging
between 7 and 9 ft with a secondary peak at 10 ft over the far
southern waters. The wave models NWW3 and ECMWFWAVE fit very well
with the observed 18Z seas pattern and both models have been
quite consistent in the previous runs and are also in good
agreement at least through the short term and so will not deviate
from the NWW3 solution for the seas.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...n/a.


.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
.PZZ800...Inner Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Gale Possible Wednesday.
.PZZ900...Outer Waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater...
     Gale Possible Wednesday.
.PZZ805...Inner Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale Possible Tuesday night into Wednesday.
.PZZ905...Outer Waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout...
     Gale Possible Wednesday.
.PZZ810...Inner Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale Possible Tuesday night.
.PZZ910...Outer Waters from Cape Lookout to Florence OR...
     Gale Possible Wednesday.
.PZZ915...Outer Waters from Florence OR to Point St. George...
     Gale Possible Wednesday.

.PZ6 California Waters...
.PZZ825...Inner Waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point...
     Gale Possible Thursday night.
.PZZ830...Inner Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas...
     Gale Possible Thursday night.
     Gale Possible Friday night.
.PZZ835...Inner Waters from Point Piedras Blancas to Santa Cruz Island, CA...
     Gale Possible Thursday night.
.PZZ840...Inner Waters from Santa Cruz Island, CA to San Clemente Island, CA...
     Gale Monday night into Tuesday.
     Gale Possible Thursday night.

$$

.Forecaster Shaw/Musonda. Ocean Prediction Center.



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