Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGPN40 KWNM 241952
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
1252 PM PDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

ONCE AGAIN TODAY THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE 12Z GFS HAS
GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE 12Z NAM...ECMWF...UKMET...CANADIAN GEM MDLS
RIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS A RESULT WE WILL REMAIN CLOSE
TO THE 12Z GFS THROUGHOUT THE FCST PACKAGE...USING THE 10M WINDS
TONITE INTO THU...AND THE SOMEWHAT HIGHER 30M WINDS LATER THU
THRU SUN NITE. THIS WILL RESULT IN LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PAST
FEW OPC FCSTS FOR THE AFTN PACKAGE...AND KEEP THE GALES IN THE
SAME WTRS AS WAS NOTED IN THE PAST FEW OPC FCSTS.

THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE
TIMING AND EXTENT OF GALES FCST TO SPREAD FROM THE COASTAL WTRS
WEST INTO THE INNER NOCAL AND CENTRAL CAL OFF WTRS LTR THU AND
THU NITE...THEN CONTG INTO SAT NITE. THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS ALL
SUGGEST THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR GALES WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL
WTRS THU INTO SAT NITE...WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR THEM SPREADING
INTO THE ADJACENT OFFSHORE WTRS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. CONFDC
LVLS IN THE GALES OCCURRING IS NEAR AVERAGE...WITH THE GALES
COINCIDING WITH A SERIES OF UPR LVL LOW PRES AREAS MOVG SE FROM
SW CANADA...AND AN UPR LVL RIDGE PERSISTING ALONG 135-140W. THE
GALES WILL LKLY END SUN AND SUN NITE AS THE RIDGE SLIDES E AND
THE UPR LVL LOW TROF EXTENDING FROM WRN CANADA S INTO THE WRN
U.S. BEGINS TO SHIFT E AS WELL.

.SEAS...THE LATEST OBS AND ALTIMETER DATA FROM THE REGION INDICATE
THAT THE 12Z ENP WAVE WATCH III MDL OUTPUT IS RUNNING UP TO 2 FT
TOO LOW OVER THE OFFSHORE WTRS. WE WILL MAKE THE NEEDED
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FCST INITIALLY. OTW...WE PLAN TO REMAIN CLOSE
TO THE 12Z ENP WW3 MDL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE FCST PACKAGE. THE 12Z
ENP WW3 MDL GUID IS ALSO VERY SIMILAR TO THE 12Z ECMWF WAM MDL
GUID TONIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WKND.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
     NONE.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
.PZZ820...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ST. GEORGE TO POINT ARENA...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.
.PZZ825...INNER WATERS FROM POINT ARENA TO PIGEON POINT...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.PZZ830...INNER WATERS FROM PIGEON POINT TO POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS...
     GALE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER MILLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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