Marine Interpretation Message
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AGPN40 KWNM 191454
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
654 AM PST FRI DEC 19 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

ATTM I DONT PLAN ON MAKING MANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT GRIDS AND
ASSOCIATED TEXT FCST. LATEST OBS RUNNING BLO WW3 GUIDANCE DUE TO
SWELL IN EPAC. CURRENT ECMWF GUID IS BETTER REPRESENTATION OF SEA
STATE.

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PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE CRNT GOES IR IMGRY AND THE LTST NCEP SFC ANALYS INDC A STG
LOW PRES SYS IN THE E PAC. WSAT FM 0145Z INDC 30 KT OVR THE WAS
WTRS...RSCAT FM 0415Z INDC 30 KT WITH SEVL 35 KT IN THE CSTL
ZONES...AND ASCAT FM 05Z UTC...ASCAT FM O520Z INDC GALES W OF THE
ARE IN THE CAA...AND MISSED THE MOST OF THE NRN OFSHR AND CSTL
WTRS. THE 00Z GFS WINDS ARE INIT OK WHEN COMPARED WITH THE
DATA...AND INDC THE WINDS AT 06Z DCRSD JUST BLO GALE FRC AS THE
FRNTL BNDRY MOVES INLAND...WHILE THE LOW CTR NW OF THE AREA MOVES
NW. THE MDLS ALL INDC THE GALES W OF THE AREA WLMOVE NE...AND
STEER CLEAR OF THE OFSHR WTRS. THE PREV FSCT KEPT THE WINDS BLO GL
FRC IN THE CAA...AND CONFDC IS LOW WITH THEM REACHING THE WAS
WTRS...SO WL CONT BLO GL FRC IN THE NEXT PKG WITH THIS LOW.

THE 00Z MDLS AGREE FAIRLY WELL IN THE SHORT TERM...AND INDC ANTHER
STG SYS WL MOV INTO THE WAS WTRS TNGT...INCRSG THE WNDS TO GL FRC
IN THE CHANNELING FLOW BTWN THE FRNT AND THE COAST. THE MDLS AGREE
ON THE TMG OF THE FRNT...AND ALL INDC A FAIRLY STG SYS. IN
ADDITION...THE GFS AND ECMWF INDC A WK DISTURBANCE WL MOV INTO THE
WAS WTRS BEHIND THE MAIN BNDRY...PROVIDING A SLGT BIT OF
FRCG...ALLOWING A BF INCRS IN THE WNDS LATE SAT NGT. THE GFS HAS
BEEN THE STGST WITH THE WINDS IN THE RECENT PAST WITH SIMILAR
SITUATIONS...AND HAS BEEN HANDLING THE CHANNELING FLOW A BIT
BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE GUID. AS A RESULT PLANNING ON FAVORING
00Z GFS 30M WNDS INTO SUN...TO ACCT FOR STGR WNDS XPCTD TO MIX DN.

THE 00Z MDLS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON MON...AND THE GFS INDC A STG LOW WILL PASS
JUST NW OF THE WAS WTRS MON INTO MON NGT. THE GFS HAS BEEN A BIT
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TMG OF THE LOW...AND IS SE OF THE UKMET/GEM
SOLNS. AS A RESULT...UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE
MDLS IN POOR AGRMT...SO PLANNING ON SWITCHING TO THE 00Z
ECWMF SOLN MON 12Z ONWARD...AS THE BEST MDL CONSENSUS IS CLOSEST
TO THE 00Z ECWMF SOLN.

SEAS...TO REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH PREFERRED WX MDL TRENDS...WL
FAVOR THE 00Z NWW3 SOLN INTO 12Z MON...THEN USE THE 00Z ECMWF WAM
THEREAFTER.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...NA.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ800...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO SAT.
.PZZ900...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FLATTERY TO CAPE SHOALWATER...
     GALE TODAY INTO SAT.
.PZZ805...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO SAT.
.PZZ905...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER TO CAPE LOOKOUT...
     GALE TODAY INTO SAT.
.PZZ810...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO SAT.
.PZZ910...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
     GALE TONIGHT.
.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE TONIGHT.
.PZZ915...OUTER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE TONIGHT.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER SHAW/KELLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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