Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS48 KWNS 190838
SWOD48
SPC AC 190838

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0338 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VALID 221200Z - 271200Z

...DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIABILITY EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS
WELL AS SINGLE MODEL RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES.  EVEN SO THERE APPEARS
TO BE SUPPORT FOR A WELL ESTABLISHED LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE BY MID WEEK
AS SUBSTANTIAL SWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS OVERSPREADS THE HIGH PLAINS.
CURRENT PATTERN FAVORS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM NWRN TX...NWD INTO CNTRL NEB.  WHILE
DETAILS OF SHORT WAVE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SPEED MAXIMUM DIFFER
AMONG THE MODELS...40KT+ SWLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION.  IF A BROADER AND MORE
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR CAN ESTABLISH ITSELF THEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE EVENT...POSSIBLY OVER MULTIPLE DAYS...COULD ENSUE.
HOWEVER...MODEL VARIABILITY WILL PRECLUDE DELINEATING A SEVERE
THREAT BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

..DARROW.. 04/19/2014


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