Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS48 KWNS 050949
SWOD48
SPC AC 050948

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

VALID 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH AN ASSOCIATED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY. THE MODELS MOVE
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE SERN U.S. FROM MONDAY/DAY 4 INTO
TUESDAY/DAY 5 AND ESTABLISH NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE NRN PLAINS SEWD
INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS PATTERN PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY/DAY
6. FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY/DAY 7...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC AS WEST TO NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
IN PLACE FROM THE NCNTRL STATES TO THE ERN SEABOARD. OVERALL...THE
NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE DAY 4 TO 8
PERIOD WILL KEEP A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
MAKING CONDITIONS UNFAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

..BROYLES.. 02/05/2016


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