Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS48 KWNS 020822
SWOD48
SPC AC 020820

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 AM CDT MON MAY 02 2016

VALID 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
LATEST MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE
THE MID SECTION OF THE CONUS UNTIL LATER THIS WEEKEND.  BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOP AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. WHICH COULD
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE HIGH PLAINS REGION AS EARLY AS FRIDAY...BUT MORE
LIKELY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.  BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL
INITIALLY BE POOR ACROSS THE PLAINS AS DEEP FRONTAL PENETRATION INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD RETARD NWD ADVANCE OF QUALITY MOISTURE.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THE BREAK DOWN OF
THE CNTRL U.S. RIDGE WILL PRECLUDE SEVERE PROBS THIS PERIOD.

..DARROW.. 05/02/2016


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