Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS02 KWNS 170545
SWODY2
SPC AC 170543

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE
OZARKS...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD.

...NRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
DEEPEN AS SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS ERN MT THURSDAY AS
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS NWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS. SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S F AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY HOLD OFF FOR MUCH OF THE DAY DUE
TO A CAPPING INVERSION. BY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND A WEAKENING CAP SHOULD
ALLOW FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WRN DAKOTAS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR MINOT AND DICKENSON ND AT 03Z/FRIDAY SHOW
SBCAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG WITH 0-6 K SHEAR IN THE 35 TO 40 KT RANGE
AND 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.0 C/KM. THIS SHOULD ENABLE
STORMS TO BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. WARM AIR ALOFT AND LIMITED
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ISOLATED AND MAY
HINDER UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION.

..BROYLES.. 09/17/2014



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