Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS02 KWNS 310544
SWODY2
SPC AC 310542

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1242 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN FL...SE GA
AND FAR SRN SC...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF FL...GA AND SC
OUTSIDE OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...

...SUMMARY...
A THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

...NRN FL/SE GA/FAR SRN SC...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS FORECASTING A TROPICAL STORM TO
DEVELOP IN THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE
TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE FL
PANHANDLE TODAY REACHING THE FL COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
TALLAHASSEE FL BY EARLY EVENING ON THURSDAY/DAY 2. THIS FORECAST
MOST CLOSELY AGREES WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION. ACCORDING TO THE
ECMWF...RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE INLAND ACROSS NRN FL ON THURSDAY AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR STEADILY
INCREASES. BY 00Z/FRI ACROSS NRN FL...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S F...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.50
INCHES...STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB AND 30 KT
OF 0-1 KM SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS AND A
FEW TORNADOES AS THE TROPICAL STORM MOVES INLAND ACROSS NRN FL AND
INTO SE GA THURSDAY EVENING. HAVE UPGRADED THIS OUTLOOK TO SLIGHT
RISK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTED TORNADO THREAT NOW THAT CONFIDENCE
HAS INCREASED CONCERNING THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE TROPICAL
STORM.

..BROYLES.. 08/31/2016

$$


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