Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS02 KWNS 241713
SWODY2
SPC AC 241712

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST.

...MIDWEST...

MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY2 PERIOD AS
STRONG 500MB SPEED MAX DIGS INTO MN AFTER DARK.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS
DIGGING SPEED MAX...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL INFLUENCE FORCING FOR
ASCENT ACROSS THE MIDWEST SUCH THAT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND FOCUS ALONG A SURGING COLD FRONT.

HIGH PW AIR MASS WILL EXTEND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE SRN
PLAINS...ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL
CONVECTION AS INHIBITION WILL BE WEAK DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS/PRECIP.  LATEST SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST
BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE ARKLATEX
INTO NRN IL.  AS 70F SFC DEW POINTS RETURN TO THIS REGION IT APPEARS
1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE COULD BE IN PLACE PRIOR TO TSTM INITIATION.
SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25-30KT SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR
ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FORCED WIND
SHIFT.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE THE
PRIMARY RISKS.

..DARROW.. 09/24/2016

$$



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