Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
000
ACUS02 KWNS 260629
SWODY2
SPC AC 260628

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF SERN TX AND THE
LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ON SATURDAY FROM EASTERN
PORTIONS OF TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  A FEW OF THE
STRONGER STORMS MAY POSE AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THREAT.

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEB/KS WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NEWD TO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY.  MEANWHILE FARTHER SW...THE SRN
EXTENSION OF A LARGER-SCALE CNTRL U.S. MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AS
A DISTURBANCE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER NRN MEXICO.  A WEAK
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO ONTARIO IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE N-CNTRL U.S. MID-LEVEL FEATURE.  AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND PUSH THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND ERN TX DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD.

...SERN TX AND PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN SELY RETURN FLOW FROM THE WRN
GULF INTO COASTAL TX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF
A SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT.  CONSIDERABLE AIR MASS MODIFICATION WILL
LIKELY OCCUR IN THE MEANTIME OVER THE NWRN GULF BASIN AND INTO
IMMEDIATE AREAS COASTAL AREAS OF THE UPPER TX COAST AND FAR SWRN LA
WHERE MODELS SHOW DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S DURING THE
MORNING.  A LOW-LEVEL VEERING AND STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILE WITH
HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR UPDRAFTS TO ORGANIZE BUT
SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO TEMPER DESTABILIZATION.  A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY POSE
MAINLY AN ISOLD WIND DAMAGE RISK AND THIS APPEARS MAXIMIZED S OF AN
EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT MOVING INTO SRN LA AND SERN TX.

..SMITH.. 12/26/2014



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.