Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 041726
SWODY2
SPC AC 041725

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CST SUN DEC 04 2016

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF
STATES...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY NIGHT OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES.
DAMAGING WIND IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE
WITH ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

...GULF STATES...

LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A STRONG
SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ENEWD ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 06/00Z.  500MB SPEED MAX
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 80KT AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS NEGATIVELY TILTED
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING.  IN RESPONSE
TO THIS FEATURE...LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE GULF BASIN WILL
AID IN THE NWD ADVANCEMENT OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT...BUT TRUE
MARITIME AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE APPRECIABLY INLAND.  04/12Z NAM
SUGGESTS HIGHER THETA-E AIR SHOULD HOLD NEAR THE COAST AND FOR THIS
REASON HAVE SUPPRESSED THE SLGT RISK A BIT CLOSER TO THE GULF WHERE
BUOYANCY WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER.

LARGE-SCALE FORCING IN ASSOCIATION WITH EJECTING UPPER TROUGH WILL
INDUCE ELEVATED CONVECTION NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY BEGINNING EARLY IN
THE PERIOD.  APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD ONLY SKIRT THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY BE THE PRIMARY
INSTIGATOR IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SEVERE RISK REGION
MONDAY.  WHILE FORECAST SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...
IT APPEARS THE PRIMARY RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE NEAR/SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT WHERE NEAR-SFC BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS.  DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS AND HAIL IS MORE LIKELY WITH
ELEVATED CONVECTION.

..DARROW.. 12/04/2016

$$


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