502
ACUS02 KWNS 080602
SWODY2
SPC AC 080600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Wed May 08 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Very large hail with multiple supercells appears probable across
parts of north-central into central Texas Thursday afternoon and
evening. A broader corridor of severe hail and damaging wind
potential remains evident from the lower Mississippi
Valley/Southeast into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic.

...Central/East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
With steep mid-level lapse rates present atop a very moist low-level
airmass, strong to extreme instability is anticipated across parts
of north-central and central TX, along/south of a cold front, and to
the east of a dryline. A weak mid-level perturbation emanating from
northern Mexico should support convective initiation across
central/east TX by late Thursday afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear
will support organized convection, including scattered supercells
posing a threat for very large hail. Due to increased confidence in
this very large hail threat occurring, an Enhanced Risk has been
included for parts of north-central into central TX. This convection
may spread eastward Thursday evening/night across the lower MS
Valley/Southeast in the form of a small cluster/bow, while still
posing a threat for damaging winds and hail given a favorably
unstable airmass along/south of the front.

...Deep South into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic...
Across the Southeast, one or more clusters may be ongoing Thursday
morning along the southward-sagging cold front. An MCS posing a
threat for mainly damaging winds may eventually strengthen through
the late morning and early afternoon, and spread
east-southeastward across parts of GA/SC while posing a threat for
mainly damaging winds. The potential for additional strong to severe
storms across AL/MS through the day remains uncertain. Farther north
into NC and Mid-Atlantic, the severe potential remains a bit more
uncertain due to possible convective contamination/overturning with
thunderstorms in the Day 1 (Wednesday) period. Still, weak to
moderate instability may develop ahead of the cold front with
daytime heating behind whatever morning convection may have
occurred. Mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear will increase
through the day with the eastward progression of an upper trough.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should gradually increase in
coverage and intensity through the afternoon, generally along/east
of the Blue Ridge and Appalachian Mountains. Hail and damaging winds
will be a concern with any clusters or supercells that can develop
and spread east-southeastward towards the Atlantic Coast through
Thursday evening.

..Gleason.. 05/08/2024

$$