452
FXUS65 KFGZ 111238
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
538 AM MST Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Seasonal temperatures are expected today with isolated
to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms along and north
of I-40. Warmer temperatures arrive starting Sunday, with slight
chances for a few showers and storms each afternoon through
Thursday. Anticipate typical afternoon breezes through the
period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The upper low is centered over NW Arizona early this
morning, with clouds and a few light showers over northwest
Coconino County. This low will slide eastward through the day,
reaching 4 corners by sunset and then ejecting east into the
Plains states by Sunday. Instability associated with daytime
heating will lead to isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening with the highest
coverage along and north of I-40. This will be high-based activity
as low levels remain dry. So the main threats will be a few
lightning strikes and wind gusts 30-40 mph. Shower chances dwindle
by mid evening.

Sunday and Monday - brief ridging over the state will lead to
warmer daytime temperatures, finally reaching above normal after a
cool stretch over the past week. Warmer temperatures aloft will
diminish afternoon instability, but enough mid level moisture
remains to keep a slight chance (10-20%) of a shower or storm both
days along the higher terrain from the Mogollon Rim/White Mtns
northward. Daytime west to northwest wind 10-20 mph.

Tuesday through Thursday - a weak low from off the Pacific is
forecast to drift east over the state, as another trough dives
southeast through the Rocky Mountain states. Slight cooling aloft
and continued mid level moisture availability will lead to a
10-30% chance of light showers and a few thunderstorms each day,
with the better chances on Wednesday. Thursday`s forecast is more
uncertain as there are differences in the guidance regarding how
fast the trough moves east of the state. Temperatures will remain
near normal. Dry weather and a warming trend are favored for
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 11/12Z through Sunday 12/12Z...Mostly VFR
conditions. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA possible through 02Z Sunday. Some
FU producing VIS from 2-4SM possible near the KSEZ and KFLG. Sfc
winds light and variable overnight, with some NE drainage winds
just SW of higher terrain and at terminal KSEZ. Otherwise,
SW-W5-15g20kts AFT 18Z Saturday through 02Z Sunday.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 12/12Z through Tuesday 14/12Z...Expect mostly
VFR conditions. ISOLD afternoon -SHRA/-TSRA possible, mainly
north of a KFLG-KRQE line. Areas VIS 2-4SM with FU near prescribed
burns. Sfc winds light and variable in the overnight and early
morning hours, westerly 10-15g20kts each afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...An area of low pressure
moving over northern Arizona will bring a chance (20-50%) for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms from the Mogollon Rim northward,
especially today. Little if any precipitation is expected, however
gusty outflow winds are possible. Outside of showers, expect west to
northwest winds 10-25 mph.

Monday through Wednesday...Temperatures will warm near to above
normal. A low chance (10-30%) for mountain showers or thunderstorms
will continue each day through the week. Very little precipitation
is expected. Generally west winds of 10-20 mph are forecast through
the week.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff