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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 292234
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
334 PM MST TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH STORMS LIMITED TO THE AFTERNOONS
AND EARLY EVENINGS. STARTING FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD
SLOWLY RETURN TO THE AREA WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THERE HAS BEEN MUCH LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY AS COMPARED TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
IS LIKELY DUE A GENERAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
DRIER WESTERLY WIND FLOW FORECAST TO EFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA TILL
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...SOME MID-LEVEL WARMING LED TO A DECREASE
IN INSTABILITY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE
LEVELS DOWN AND REDUCE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS INDICATE SOUTHERLY FLOW MAY DEVELOP AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD ALONG THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER. BY SATURDAY...GOOD MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. SO...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS INCREASING CLOUD
COVER...BEGINNING FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL GFS FORECASTS A RETURN OF
DRY WESTERLY WIND FLOW...WHERE AS THE EUROPEAN MAINTAINS A MORE
MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA DISSIPATING IN THE
EVENING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30KTS PSBL IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........RR
AVIATION.......DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF