Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ
FXUS65 KFGZ 231631
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
931 AM MST Sun Apr 23 2017
.SYNOPSIS...Expect dry and warm weather through Monday. Gusty
afternoon winds will return starting this afternoon and persist
through the week as a series of weather disturbances brush
Arizona. The stronger of these systems will bring a cooling trend
starting Tuesday along with a slight chance of showers.
.UPDATE...Satellite shows a wide and fairly thick band of cirrus
has crossed the western AZ border. This should bring partly to
mostly cloudy skies for a portion of today as it moves eastward.
Forecast updates have been sent.
.PREV DISCUSSION /402 AM MST/...A passing shortwave trough later
today will usher in a general pattern of troughing and west to
northwest flow across Arizona over the coming week.
For today...Pressure gradients will strengthen substantially with
this first trough resulting in afternoon southwest winds in the
20 to 30 mph range gusting to 35 mph across most of northern
Arizona. Even stronger afternoon gusts, in the 40 to 45 mph, are
expected from Flagstaff to across the northwest corner of Arizona.
A Wind Advisory is in effect later today across this portion of
Arizona. In addition, there will be very little moisture with this
first passing trough. The combination of strong winds and dry
conditions warrant the issuance of a Red Flag Warning for
locations along and north of the Mogollon Rim.
For Monday...Another approaching trough will produce even
stronger winds, with the focus shifting to northeast Arizona. Dry
conditions will remain through Monday afternoon with a Fire
Weather Watch in effect from the Mogollon Rim northward on Monday.
Wind gusts approaching 50 mph will be possible across northeast
Arizona on Monday.
From Tuesday onward...The general pattern of troughing will
persist. Models are now showing a bit of cooler air pushing in
from the north for Tuesday. In addition, there will be enough
upward motion and cooling for a slight chance of showers over far
northeast Arizona. Daytime temperatures will warm a bit on
Wednesday and Thursday as the second trough moves eastward. Behind
the trough, breezy afternoon conditions will continue with winds
shifting to a more northwesterly direction. The GFS and European
model forecasts show an even stronger trough and cold front by
Friday and Saturday bringing much cooler temperatures along with
a chance of showers. High temperatures could dip from 10 to 15
degrees below normal by Friday and Saturday. Still time for this
possibility to fade (as have many other such systems on day 7 this
spring) to stay tuned.
.AVIATION...For the 18Z Package...VFR conditions under variable high
clouds over the next 24 hours. Southwest wind gradually increasing
to 15-25KT with gusts 30-40KT by this afternoon, then decreasing to
5-15KT after 03Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
.FIRE WEATHER...A passing trough will cause strong southwest winds
with low humidity for most locations along and north of the Mogollon
Rim today, and a Red Flag Warning is in effect for many of these
areas. Strong winds will continue Monday for most areas along and
northeast of the Mogollon Rim where a Fire Weather Watch is in
Tuesday through Thursday...Occasionally windy conditions will
continue with a chance of showers across far northern Arizona.
Daytime humidity is forecast to remain above critical thresholds
through the period.
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ104-106-107-
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ004-006-007-015.
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