Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 152300
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
345 PM MST MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM. A STRONGER MOISTURE SURGE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 BOTH DAYS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE STRONG MOISTURE SURGE WEDNESDAY AND PATH
AND TIMING OF REMNANTS FROM ODILE ON THURSDAY.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
CONVECTION FOR THE THIRD DAY IN A ROW DEVELOPING OVER TERRAIN ABOVE
6000 FEET WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM. STORMS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING GREATER PRECIP AMOUNTS PER RADAR
WITH A FEW FLOOD ADVISORIES ISSUED.

AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE GOOD
AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON TUESDAY AND SCATTERED DAYTIME
STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA. AREAS NORTH OF THE RIM SHOULD HAVE
ISOLATED DAY STORM COVERAGE.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
VALID 11 AM MST WEDS THROUGH 6 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AREAS ROUGHLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. LATEST PROGS STILL SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INCREASE INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA LATE TUESDAY
EARLY WEDNESDAY AND MOVE IT SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY.

THIS IS AHEAD OF A WEAKENING TROPICAL DEPRESSION ODILE...WHOSE
CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE OVER ROCKY PT MEXICO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
IS MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN THE FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO...AND MODEL QPFS
NOW SUGGEST THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE MOGOLLON RIM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE TIME FRAME AND
PATH THAT THE REMNANTS FROM ODILE TAKE ON THURSDAY STILL A BIT
UNCLEAR AND ALL ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
WATCHES.

FRIDAY ONWARD...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON INTERACTION
BETWEEN LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM ODILE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING DOWN THE WEST COAST. WILL CONTINUE THE BROAD BRUSH SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...TIL 04Z EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA ALONG
D SOUTH OF A LINE KCMR/KFLG/KSOW. ELSEWHERE...ISOLD OR NO CELL
ACTIVITY. STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AND VARIABLE
WIND GUSTS TO 35KTS. AFTER 04Z TUE...STORM ACTIVITY DECREASING. AFT
18Z TUES...TSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SIMILAR AS TODAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH 11 AM MST WEDS THROUGH 6 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZ
ZONES AZZ007-008-012>018-037-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......DL / RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF







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