Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 241106

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
406 AM MST Fri Nov 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Strong high pressure will be parked over Arizona
through the holiday weekend with clear and dry weather. Daytime
temperatures will be near record warm levels through Sunday. Windy
and much cooler conditions are expected early next week with some
showers possible along the Utah border.


.DISCUSSION...Unseasonably strong high pressure centered off the
coast of Baja will shift gradually eastward through Sunday,
dominating Arizona`s weather. Daytime temperatures were near
record levels on Thanksgiving, and we expect that trend to
continue today through Sunday. Cloud cover will be minimal and
winds will remain generally light.

A trough approaching from the west will push a cold front through
the state early next week, with Monday afternoon and evening
looking like the most likely time for frontal passage in the
latest model runs. Winds ahead of the front will increase
significantly, with some gusts in the 30-45 mph. Moisture along
and just behind the front could affect areas mainly along the
AZ/UT border, and a chance of showers is included in the forecast
there. If the trough tracks a bit farther south, we will need to
spread precip chances to the Flagstaff area but will keep them out
for now. Daytime temperatures from around Flagstaff westward will
be 10-15 degrees cooler Monday, but east of Flagstaff look for
little change as these areas will be ahead of the front with deep
mixing in the southwest flow. By Tuesday behind the front, cool
northerly flow will keep daytime temperatures close to seasonal
averages. Wednesday and Thursday, model agreement is not as good,
but most guidance indicates a weak trough diving southeast through
the region which would keep temperatures cool, but provide little
to no moisture.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...VFR conditions will continue
under mostly clear skies. Light winds will become W to NW this
afternoon at 10-20 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Record setting temperatures and dry weather will
continue through the weekend as high pressure centers over the
region. Breezy west to northwest winds this afternoon will become
lighter on Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...An approaching trough will bring increasing
southwest winds by Sunday with the strongest winds expected on
Monday afternoon. A cold front will move through the area Monday
night leading to the possibility of a few light showers and winds
shifting to the north. Much cooler temperatures are in store Tuesday.






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