Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 312310
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
410 PM MST FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ON SATURDAY...WINDY AND COLDER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ARIZONA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON SATURDAY. BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND SNOW ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
SNOW LEVELS WILL FALL BELOW 7000 FEET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS A SLOW WARMING TREND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DEEP AND COLD TROUGH CENTERED ALONG 132W WILL MOVE
ONSHORE TONIGHT AND WILL AFFECT OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME
DEEPER SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO FAR
EASTERN ARIZONA...WHERE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.

ASIDE FROM THAT...THE MAIN EFFECTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL AT FIRST
BE WIND. SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES STRENGTHENING TONIGHT AND THEN
STAYS STRONG THROUGH SATURDAY. FLOW WILL THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST ON SUNDAY. SFC WINDS INTO THE EVENING WILL STAY BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SOME LEE SIDE LOCATIONS
LATER TONIGHT. MANY AREAS ON SATURDAY WILL HAVE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
40MPH...AND A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND...HIGHER PW VALUES TO OUR SOUTH FROM A
DECAYING TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE IMPORTED NORTHWARD AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD FORMATION IS LIKELY ON SATURDAY AND
A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH THE SURFACE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BY
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FRONTAL DYNAMICS AND COLDER AIR
MOVE INTO THE STATE AND SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE QPF WILL DEVELOP AS A
RESULT. THE BEST CHANCE SEEMS TO BE THROUGH THE I-17 CORRIDOR AND
WESTWARD. SNOW LEVELS WITH THIS FRONT WILL REACH BELOW 7000 FEET AND
THE FIRST SNOW OF THE SEASON IS PROBABLE FROM FLAGSTAFF WEST. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH DRYING FLOW AND RIDGING
DEVELOPING AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...A FEW -SHRA/-TSRA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS. -SHRA POSSIBLE NEAR KGCN/KFLG/KSEZ/KPRC
ON SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THERE MAY BE AREAS OF MVFR
CEILINGS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM MST SATURDAY FOR AZ PUBLIC ZONES
004-006-007-009-011>017-039-040.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....PETERSON
AVIATION...AT

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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