Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 021047
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
347 AM MST MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM DELIVERS
WINDY...COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AZ LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL ACT ON RESIDING MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SNOW LEVELS TODAY WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE 8000 FEET WITH THE ONLY SNOW OVER THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAIN TOPS.

DRIER AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY WITH THE ONLY
CHANCE FOR A LINGERING SHOWER ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK MIDWEEK ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING 20
TO 25 DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW OVER THE WEEKEND.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO RETURN LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH IN THE LOW
IMPACTING THE SOUTHWEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH COOL, WINDY,
AND SHOWERY WEATHER MAKING A RETURN BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS
IS NOT AS HIGH. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF
THE LOW ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY MULTIPLE DAYS OF CONVECTIVE RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW OVER THE
WEEKEND. MORE PLEASANT SPRING WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT-BKN SC WITH BASES FROM
3-5KFT THROUGH 17Z-19Z. POCKETS OF VLIFR POSSIBLE...DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS/FOG...OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH 15Z. AFT 19Z...BKN-OVC
CU/SC WITH SCT -SHRA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-40
CORRIDOR. ALL AREAS BECMG VFR WITH CLEARING SKIES AFTER SUNSET.
LIGHT WINDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT
FOR LIGHT CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TUESDAY...BRINGING DRY AND MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS EACH DAY.
ANOTHER STRONG AND COLD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY. THIS
WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS
AVIATION...PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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