Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 270342
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
840 PM MST THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE SOUNDING FROM FLAGSTAFF
THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS STRONG WARMING BELOW 18000 FT MSL. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER SFC TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&
PREV DISCUSSION...255 PM. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE IN
PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR RECORDS AT SOME LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SEE THE TABLE BELOW FOR THE FORECAST AND RECORD HIGHS AT A FEW
SELECTED SITES.

LOCATION   DATE  FORECAST   RECORD
                   HIGH    HIGH/YEAR

FLAGSTAFF  3/27     68      70/1986
           3/28     69      68/1971
           3/29     66      70/1934

WINSLOW    3/27     77      81/1971
           3/28     81      80/1943
           3/29     78      80/1917

PRESCOTT   3/27     76      79/1986
           3/28     78      77/1986
           3/29     75      78/1971

SUNDAY ONWARD...MODELS INDICATE NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL BE AFFECTED
BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE
CANADIAN AND GFS MODELS FORECAST A DEEPER SHORTWAVE WITH VORTICITY
STAYING LARGELY TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE. THE ECMWF FORECASTS A
WEAKER...MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM. WOULD FAVOR THE GFS/GEM SOLUTION
GIVEN THEIR PRESENT AGREEMENT AND SIMILARITY TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN. OVERALL HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE UNDER
OCCASIONAL CIRRUS CLOUDS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL / RR
AVIATION.......DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF








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