Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 181031
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 AM MST SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOOK FOR WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AS THE LATEST WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVES EASTWARD. FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
FOR A FEW AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING MILD DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS. A TURN
TOWARD COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER COLORADO DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...CONTINUING TO SLOWLY WOBBLE EASTWARD. FOR TODAY...ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LOW WILL RESULT
IN AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE, MAINLY FROM THE FOUR CORNER SOUTHWARD TO THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS OF FAR EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA. A SPRINKLE OR TWO COULD BE
SEEN AS FAR WEST AS FLAGSTAFF. A WARMER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN ALOFT
SO LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN ON FRIDAY.

ON SUNDAY...LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUD BUILDUPS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. A BIT OF ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST
AND COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING SO THAT ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS IN THE HUNDREDTHS RANGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL.

FROM MONDAY ONWARD...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA IS AFFECTED BY A
FAST MOVING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. DAYTIME BREEZES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHUTTLES EASTWARD INTO NEW
MEXICO. FOR LATER IN THE WEEK, MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE GENERALLY COME
TOGETHER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. IT NOW APPEARS THAT NORTHERN
ARIZONA WILL BE IN FOR A ROUND OF DECREASING TEMPERATURES AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER STARTING THURSDAY AS A SERIES WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVE
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE 24 HR FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED -SHRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM
TO THE FOUR CORNERS. WINDS W TO NW 10-20 KTS.  AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP A LINGERING CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND FAVORING HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM TO THE FOUR CORNERS. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM ABOVE NORMAL WITH A GENERAL DRYING TREND EXPECTED.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS
FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH WHICH BRINGS A RETURN OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......MCS
FIRE WEATHER...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




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