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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 261632
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
933 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SUB-TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY...
RESULTING IN CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
FAIR WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED NORTHWARD ACROSS MOST OF
ARIZONA THIS MORNING. WILL UPDATE GRIDS/FORECAST FOR EARLIER ONSET
TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN TO OUR NORTHWEST THE PAST FEW
DAYS WILL SHIFT INTO CO/NM LATER TODAY...GIVING NORTHERN ARIZONA
ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS THE RIDGE MOVES
EASTWARD...THIS WILL ALLOW A CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA COAST TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DEEP
MOISTURE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL BE PULLED UP INTO
ARIZONA...BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS...DEVELOPING FIRST OVER
YAVAPAI/GILA COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...THEN
SPREADING NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. SHOWER CHANCES DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE STATE. EXPECTED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY...GENERALLY 0.10-0.40
INCHES ALONG/SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...LIGHTER AMOUNTS TO THE
NORTH. SNOW LEVELS IN THIS MILD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN HIGH...
8500-9500 FEET WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

FAIR WEATHER RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AGAIN AS ANOTHER TROUGH SETS UP OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS
NEXT LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...THEN SHIFT GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE WEEKEND AS
RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN TO OUR NORTH. THIS LOW SHOULD HAVE A DECENT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SO WE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES
THURS NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE CLOSEST TO
OUR AREA. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERS INTO SATURDAY...THEN
DECREASES TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY BY SUNDAY AS THE LOW MOVES
SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE A BIT COLDER...WITH SNOW LEVELS
POSSIBLY DOWN TO THE 6500-7000 FOOT RANGE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
PATTERN IS LOW THIS FAR OUT...AS MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO
CHANGE...SO CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UNTIL 00Z...NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL
SEE VFR CONDITIONS UNDER INCREASING CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO
11 KFT MSL. AFTER 00Z...RAIN SHOWERS AND WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH SNOW LEVELS AT
OR ABOVE 9000 FEET. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY BECOMING EAST SOUTHEAST
5-15 KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.....MAS/JJ
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF