Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 031202
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
502 AM MST FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE MONSOON WILL REMAIN ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A SLIGHT DRYING
TREND WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN ZONES EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE
THE EASTERN ZONES REMAIN ACTIVE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES NW-SE THROUGH
EASTERN AZ THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF CONVECTION MOVED INTO CENTRAL
AZ OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, WITH ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY OVER
YAVAPAI COUNTY AND AROUND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST AZ COULD ROTATE UP INTO THE WHITE
MTNS/NRN GILA COUNTY THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR MOISTURE PROFILES EXIST TODAY COMPARED TO
THURSDAY AND EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT E-NE STEERING FLOW OVER EASTERN AZ COULD PUSH STORMS THAT
FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN DOWN INTO THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY. THE STEERING FLOW OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY WILL BE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST THOUGH MAINLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS FORECAST THERE. DUE
TO FAIRLY SLOW STORM MOTION, A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. GENERALLY SMALL, SUB-SEVERE HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS TODAY.

BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL REPOSITION INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL
TURN OUR FLOW AROUND TO THE S-SW SATURDAY/SUNDAY THEN WESTERLY FOR
NEXT WEEK. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL PERSIST FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF
SCATTERED STORMS, ESPECIALLY HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL/EASTERN
ARIZONA SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AREAS WEST OF FLAGSTAFF ARE
LIKELY TO SEE SOME DRYING WITH LOWER STORM COVERAGE. AS THE WEST
COAST TROUGH MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK, EVEN DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE
SOUTH OF A KCMR-KSJN LINE THROUGH 16Z...THEN SCT TSRA/SHRA WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS
IN THE STRONGER STORMS. STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AFTER 02Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP A
RELATIVELY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT WINDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A TYPICAL MONSOON WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY BRING SOME DRYING TO THE
AREA BY TUESDAY...DECREASING THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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