Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 260333

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
833 PM MST SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and hot weather will remain over far western
Arizona through the weekend. Moisture will remain over central
and eastern Arizona...from about Flagstaff eastward...into early
next week. By Tuesday...the high pressure center will be in a
position to increase moisture over much of northern Arizona with
increasing shower and thunderstorm activity and more seasonable


Light showers are coming to a close this evening. Short-term
forecast looks good, with significant updates unlikely this


.PREV DISCUSSION /318 PM MST/...Mid level moisture increased over
northern Arizona today. Strong surface heating was able to break
the 500 mb inversion that was present on the morning sounding.
This allowed isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to
form. Moisture will continue increase from the southeast-south
this week. This will allow shower and thunderstorm coverage to
also increase. The high will also weaken some allowing high
temperatures to drop to near or below average for this time of
year by mid week.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms may redevelop mainly east of a KPAN-KPGA line
after 18Z Sunday. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions. Smoke downwind
of active wildfires may impact local visibility. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Monsoon moisture will slowly increase northward
each day. Expect deeper moisture with increasing coverage of
showers and thunderstorms starting on Monday. Erratic and gusty
outflow winds possible near showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday through Thursday...An active wet monsoon weather pattern
is forecast with good shower and thunderstorm coverage each day
across northern Arizona.






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