Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Juneau, AK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
000
FXAK67 PAJK 242302
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
302 PM AKDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.SHORT TERM...Quiet, dry weather ends tonight with a weak front
pushing in from the west. While mainly rain, some areas may see
some mixed precipitation type on the onset due to evaporative
cooling or higher elevations such as the Haines and Klondike
Highway. Ultimately, the main challenge with this weather front is
how much moisture will push against the dry air in place, and how
much will develop into rain. While it is likely that most areas
will see overcast skies by 10 pm tonight (sorry aurora hunters),
the amount of available moisture for anything beyond light
precipitation looks unimpressive.

For marine winds, main concern is winds along the outer coast,
with a barrier jet near Icy Bay having the potential for gale
force sustained winds for around six hours tonight. Otherwise,
winds along the front near the coastline look to maximize around
25-30 kts and up to 20 kts in the inner channels, particularly
around E-W facing channels.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday/ Upper level pattern is
actively changing during the mid and extended range. A pair of
upper lows (one over the Bering and the other over the NE Pacific)
defines the start of the mid range mid week. That pattern gives
way to a building ridge over the gulf of Alaska by late week, but
it does not last. Short wave energy from the Bering Sea upper low
will be battering the western reaches of the Gulf upper ridge
gradually pushing the ridge east through the weekend. This is not
much of a change from the previous forecast.

What this means for the forecast is little change over the
previous forecast with diminishing precipitation for Tuesday into
early Wednesday with a dry period for late week followed by a
return of wet weather into the weekend. Perhaps the most
significant change was a lowering of lows and raising of high
temperatures for late week as clearer skies allow for a larger
temperature difference due to sunny days and clear skies at night.
As for the incoming wet weather for the weekend, the initial front
seems to be well represented, but guidance differs on what storms
come after and how strong they will be. The general trend is still
toward a more active and wet pattern for next weekend though.

&&

.AVIATION...Clear, dry, VFR conditions for most of the panhandle
will be replaced by MVFR conditions for CIGs as the next weather
front moves in tonight. Areas long the coast are seeing some
remnants of a marine deck of MVFR conditions which will
transition into the aforementioned MVFR CIGs. HREF probabilities
do indicate some CIGs dropping to IFR conditions, particularly
along the coast late tonight. Essentially, along the coast,
expect lower ceilings to continue through tonight. Behind the
front tomorrow morning, the mainly stratiform precipitation
transitions into a shower pattern with CIGs bouncing between VFR
and MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ652-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ053-641>644-651-661>664-671.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM....EAL
AVIATION...NC

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/Juneau


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.