079
FXUS61 KBGM 101713
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
113 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread rain showers will impact the area today, before
decreasing in coverage tonight. Additional on-and-off showers are
anticipated for this weekend, along with below normal
temperatures. A gradual warm-up is expected next week, but
showers will remain in the forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
930 AM update...
No changes made to the previous forecast this update.

345 AM Update:

As a surface low passes to the south, a shortwave trough will be
pushing through the area today. This will set the stage for
widespread light to occasionally moderate rain showers. Despite
a prolonged period of rain, rates will be rather light. Flooding
is not a concern with this system due to the rather light
rainfall rates, combined with green-up underway or complete
across the area. With a cool airmass in place and the trough
moving through, temperatures will be cool for this time of the
year; mainly in the upper 40s to mid 50s. This will make it feel
more like late March or early April, rather than early-mid May.

There will be some lingering showers tonight, with perhaps some
dry time heading into early Saturday as the first shortwave
trough departs to the east. Lingering low-level moisture should
keep skies mostly cloudy, but some patches of partial clearing
will be possible. With this lingering moisture, patchy fog will
also be possible. Lows are expected to be in the upper 30s to
upper 40s. There is a low potential for some patchy frost in any
areas of partial clearing, but with marginal temperatures and
still mainly cloudy skies, the chances are that this will not
occur.

The mainly dry period will be short-lived as yet another wave
approaches the area by Saturday afternoon. This will bring a
renewed chance for some showers, with perhaps a rumble of
thunder across the Finger Lakes Region. The best chance of rain
showers will be for areas west of I-81 (especially the Finger
Lakes Region). Farther south and east (towards the Poconos-
Catskills), conditions may remain mainly dry until Saturday
evening with perhaps some partial sunshine during the day.
Temperatures will again be cooler than normal, with highs
expected to be in the mid 50s to near 60 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
115 PM update...

Main concerns in the short term are focused on the next couple
bouts of rain showers and some afternoon thunderstorms Sunday
and Monday.

The seasonably cooler air will remain in place on Sunday as a
stacked low pressure system rotates eastward through the
Northeast US. This system should have enough deep layer moisture
(around a half inch PW), and sufficient synoptic forcing to
trigger scattered rain showers across the region. The showers
should be hit and miss for the most part. The other area of
interest on Sunday will be the threat for pop-up thunderstorms.
Temperatures aloft are expected to be quite cold (500 mb T
around -25 deg C), which should trigger some isolated convection
as the system moves through during the day Mother`s Day. Severe
weather is not expected. The only threat will be for cloud to
ground lightning.

Afternoon high temperatures on Sunday will only reach into the
upper 50s to near 60, and overnight lows Sunday night will be
chilly once again...falling into the upper 30s to mid 40s.

The cool pattern will start to change on Monday as weak surface
ridging and a wedge of deep dry air moves through the region.
The cold air mass will shift to the east and warmer conditions
will start to push in from the southwest. Surface temperatures
will warm into the mid 60s to near 70 later in the day Monday
with mostly sunny skies early in the day. A weak cold front will
drop in from the northwest later in the day and allow cloud
cover to increase, along with the chances for showers and even a
few isolated thunderstorms as well. The increasing temperature
and moisture in the boundary layer will allow more potential
instability to be present Monday afternoon and early evening.
The forcing along the front and the steep low and mid level
lapse rates will lead to some convection scattered across the
region. At this time it appears the threat for severe weather is
very low.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
115 PM update...

A weak cold front dropping south across the eastern Great Lakes
and Northeast US will stall out Monday night into Tuesday and
become quasi-stationary, basically WSW-ENE across the area
through the day. The slow-moving nature of this front will keep
the threat of rain across the region in place potentially all
the way through Wednesday afternoon. There will also be a minor
threat of thunderstorms during the this time given the rich air
mass south of the front and relatively strong upper level
dynamics due to the presence of a couple upper level jet
structure over NY and PA. This time period is still quite far
out, but if this pattern holds, this could be something to pay
close attention to Tue into Wed.

Drier air starts to move in by Thursday along with a building
upper level ridge of high pressure from the west. This pattern
will allow conditions to dry out going into the latter half of
the week. Temperatures are expected to remain seasonal with
highs in the 60s and 70s...and lows in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly MVFR to Fuel Alternate ceiling restrictions are expected
for most of the day with rain showers. Restrictions will be
slower to move in at KSYR and KRME, where it may remain VFR
until this afternoon. Despite guidance hinting at IFR
conditions at some terminals today, this is not very likely and
therefore kept restrictions no worse than Fuel Alternate for
now.

Best chance for some IFR restrictions will actually be
tonight after the bulk of the rain moves out, as it is possible
that lingering low ceilings and/or patchy fog may be present.
Best chance for this will be at KBGM, KELM, and KITH.

Outlook...

Saturday through Tuesday...Occasional rain showers may
bring intermittent restrictions as multiple disturbances pass
through the region. Some periods of mainly VFR conditions
possible in between disturbances, but timing of this is
uncertain.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...AJG/BJG
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJG