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000
FXUS61 KBGM 161437
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1037 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure controls the weather pattern today, bringing
seasonable temperatures and dry conditions. The weather pattern
changes Wednesday as the next low pressure system moves into the
region, bringing rain showers to the area Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

1035 AM Update...

Forecast remains on-track today with high pressure in control
and mostly sunny skies across the entire region. No updates
needed at this time.

625 AM Update...

Clear skies and calm conditions remain across the area. No
changes were made to the forecast with this update.


215 AM Update...

Clear skies across the region tonight, should continue through
the day. Our area is sitting between a trough to our NE and a
ridge to our SW. This puts us in NW flow with cool, dry air from
Canada moving over the region today. Areas east of the Finger
Lakes and north of the Southern Tier should see temperatures
today in the mid 50s to low 60s. Warm air from the ridge is
expected to poke its way into the Finger Lakes and NEPA, pushing
afternoon highs into the low to upper 60s. The NW flow today
should also mix the lower atmosphere pretty well, pushing
dewpoints into the upper 20s during the afternoon hours.

Tuesday night, the surface high will slide eastward, bringing
low level ENE winds that will keep the colder air in place for
one more night. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid to
upper 30s across the area, with low 40s in the Wyoming Valley.

The weather pattern changes Wednesday as the high retreats to
the east and a shortwave moves into the Great Lakes. The surface
low associated with this shortwave will be very mature, pushing
a weakened warm and occluded front through the area. Rain
showers are expected to develop along this frontal system,
moving into the western Twin Tiers by late morning. Showers
should push to the NE as the day progresses, with much of the
area seeing rain by late afternoon. The modified airmass
associated with the frontal system combined with the clouds and
rain should keep temperatures for most of the area in the mid
50s. The Mohawk Valley and Tug Hill could see low 60s thanks to
more sunshine and the late arrival of rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
320 AM Update

This period will feature rather unsettled and showery weather, as
two frontal systems spin through the forecast area.

The first is overhead Wednesday night into the day on Thursday,
bringing widespread showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms to
the region. Overall, this system will keep conditions cloudy,
showery and cooler...especially over the eastern half of the area
(generally along and east of I-81). Rainfall amounts look to be up
to around a half an inch over the area, so nothing too heavy.
Southeast winds at 8-15 mph persist during this timeframe, and high
temperatures will only be 45 to 55 east of I-81 Thursday...milder in
the mid-50s to low 60s west where there could be a few breaks in the
clouds/showers later in the day. This first frontal system exits,
with generally dry conditions expected Thursday night, along with
seasonable overnight lows in the upper 30s to mid-40s.

The brief dry period doesn`t last, as yet another frontal system
quickly moves in from the west during the day on Friday. Exact
timing is uncertain, but chances for rain showers look to increase
up to high chance/low likely PoPs by afternoon over the area. If the
current timing holds, temperatures would rise up into the mid-50s to
lower 60s before the rain chances increase later in the day. Breezy
south winds at 10-20 mph are expected on Friday ahead of the cold
front. Rain showers are also likely Friday night as the actual cold
front slowly presses through. It will be cool, with lows in the low
to mid-40s. Rainfall amounts from this second system are looking
light as well, with up to a half inch once again. Overall, did not
stray far from the NBM on most parameters in the short term period,
as it seemed to have a good handle on these systems at this time range.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
320 AM Update

The weekend starts off with cool, partly sunny conditions and
perhaps some lingering scattered rain showers behind the departing
cold front on Saturday. Winds turn west-northwest and are forecast
to breezy, between 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. High pressure
begins to build into the area from the west Saturday night. This
should bring gradually clearing, and diminishing winds. It will be
seasonably chilly, with lows in the lower to mid-30s expected.

Sunday and Monday are looking dry at this time, under the large area
of high pressure. This should bring mostly sunny/clear
conditions...especially on Monday. Increased the diurnal
temperatures range by a few degrees each period, with it likely
being 1-3 degrees warmer during the day than the NBM suggested...and
perhaps a bit cooler at night in the lower to mid-30s again. This
looks to be a good setup for potential frost. At this point next
Tuesday is also looking mainly dry and mild, with highs in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions and clear skies will prevail at all terminals
through the TAF period as high pressure remains over the region.


Outlook...

Wednesday through Friday: Chance of showers each day with
restrictions possible.

Saturday...NW flow with some MVFR cigs possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC/MPK
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...JTC