964
FXUS61 KBGM 111842
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
242 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
PoP up showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday and
Saturday. A low pressure system will bring more widespread
showers Sunday into Monday. Temperatures will remain quite warm
through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
305 AM Update...

An upper level trough slides east this morning as a ridge begins to
build over the eastern half of CONUS. Flow today will be mostly
zonal with multiple weak waves passing through. These waves will
take advantage of warm and muggy conditions and support another
round of pop up showers and thunderstorms. MLCAPE values will be at
least 1000 J/kg but 0-6 km bulk shear is weak with max values around
25 kts. While gusty winds and small hail will be possible with any
storms that can develop today, severe storms are not expected. This
lines up with SPC`s thinking as they have removed the Marginal Risk
and instead, blanket the region with General Thunder. PWATs will
only be around 1.5 to 1.7, but a couple of cells may be slow moving
and could lead to localized ponding. WPC has the south-eastern half
of the region in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall, which is
reasonable as soils are quite saturated in portions of the region.
Temperatures will mainly be in the mid to upper 80s but may just
reach the low 90s in some valley locations. Dewpoints will be in the
60s and low 70s. Peak heat indices will be below advisory criteria,
though some of the warmer valleys could see heat indices around 95.

The ridge continues to build over the region overnight tonight. Weak
waves will also continue to pass through the region with showers
continuing overnight. Some thunderstorms may be possible as well,
though the environment becomes more stable after sunset. Winds will
be light and skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy which sets
up conditions favorable for fog late tonight into early Saturday
morning. A warm front lifts north and southerly flow will keep
overnight temps quite mild with lows in the 60s, though a few
locations may not drop below 70.

The peak of the ridge will be over the Northeast by the start of
Saturday. Conditions will remain warm and muggy with temperatures
climbing back into the 80s and low 90s and dewpoints will be in the
upper 60s and low 70s. With higher dewpoints expected, heat indices
will be elevated and around advisory criteria for a few hours,
mainly for areas west and along I-81. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible from the late morning through the
evening hours. The environment becomes unstable but shear will be
weak, so strong storms are not expected. WPC has most of the region
in the Day 2 ERO. PWATs will be close to 2 inches which would be
favorable for brief periods of heavy rain. While concerns for flash
flooding are low at this time given the scattered coverage expected,
if areas see rain both today and Saturday, then chances will be
better for localized hydro issues.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

240 PM Update

Main concerns in this period will be the potential for heavy,
torrential downpours on Sunday, along with isolated severe storms.
Temperatures will be warm and it will be very humid as well, raising
apparent temperatures into the 90s...especially Sunday afternoon.

Sunday starts off with a deep southwesterly flow over the area,
pumping pseudo-tropical air mass into the region. Surface dew points
are progged to be in the low to perhaps mid-70s on Sunday, with
PWATs between 1.75 to 2"....this is close to 2 stdev above average
for mid-July. This deep moisture will combine with boundary layer
heating (highs in the 80s) to produce MLCAPE values around 1500 to
2000 J/kg...with MUCAPE potentially exceeding 3000-3500 J/kg at
times. Low level lapse rates of around 7.5C/km will allow convection
to develop over the region. Mid-level lapse rates are not as
impressive, mainly in the 5.5 to 6C/km range. The main trigger for
storm development will be a weak frontal boundary moving in from the
west, with differential moisture and heating evident, along with
modest surface convergence forecast. Overall weak flow will keep
shear down around 15-25kts in the 0-6km layer.

With all of this in mind, SPC has the area under a Marginal Risk for
isolated severe storms, with possible gusty to damaging winds being
the main severe threat. WPC has the area under a Marginal to Slight
Risk for Excessive Rainfall, which may lead to isolated to scattered
instances of flash flooding. Storm motions will be on the slower
side, considering the 850-500mb flow is only 10-20 kts out of the
SW, keeping MBE vectors short in the soundings. Warm cloud layer
depths increase above 10-12k ft by late afternoon into Sunday
evening, again supporting potentially very efficient rain processes.
Outside of the showers and storms Sunday will be partly sunny, warm
and humid with heat indices in the 90s for most locations.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms will lingering into Sunday
night, while likely gradually losing intensity as heating and
instability wane. It will be humid with lows between 65 to 70.

The slow moving front and upper level trough will still be over the
area on Monday providing another chance for scattered showers and
thunderstorms; especially for the eastern half of the area. This
will depend on the exact movement and timing of the front as it
slowly moves east. The setup looks similar to Sunday, especially
from Binghamton south and east, where PWATs of 1.8 to 1.9 inches are
expected, along with 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Shear values remain on the
lower side, close to 20 kts in the 0-6km layer. Thus, we will need
to monitor for isolated stronger storms and heavy rain producers.
Temperatures will be a few degrees lower on Monday, but still rather
humid with highs in the low to mid-80s expected.

The front moves east of the area Monday night, with conditions
drying out and becoming mainly clear. Temperatures will be
seasonable and slightly cooler, with lows in the low to mid-60s.
Patchy fog is certainly possible considering the light winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

240 PM Update

Upper level ridge moves over the region Tuesday into Wednesday,
providing mainly dry weather with just isolated diurnal t`storms
around. It will become hot and humid with highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s expected. Dew points will be in the upper 60s to lower
70s, with heat indices well into the 90s for the valley locations.
The upper level ridge is then expected to move east, with another
frontal system likely to push through the area Thursday into next
Friday. This front looks to bring rising moisture, PWATs and
instability once again. Official forecast sticks with the ensemble
blend (NBM) which brings high chance to low end likely PoPs for
t`storms in this period. Details remain uncertain this far out in
time, however temperatures remain summer-like in the mid-80s to
around 90 through the end of the work week.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Primarily VFR conditions are expected this afternoon and evening
with restrictions possible as pop up showers and thunderstorms
develop. Confidence is low on exact timing and coverage, so
tempo groups were added to AVP, ELM, BGM, and ITH. Brief
restrictions will be possible if a shower/storm passes directly
over a terminal. Most models keep showers south of SYR and RME.

Conditions will dry out by the late evening hours. Light winds
and clearing skies will be favorable for fog at ELM and possibly
BGM during the early morning hours on Saturday. There is some
uncertainty on timing.

Winds will be light and variable throughout this TAF period,
though could be gusty under showers/storms.

Outlook...

Saturday...Mainly VFR with patchy fog again Sat morning.
Scattered showers/thunderstorms from late Saturday morning
through early evening.

Sunday into Monday...Weak low pressure moving through, more
widespread showers and thunderstorms possible with associated
restrictions.

Tuesday into Wednesday... VFR conditions possible with high
pressure in control.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL/ES
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...BTL/ES