861
FXUS65 KBOI 061959
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
159 PM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night...The heat will
build through Tuesday as circulation around a closed low off the
CA increases southerly flow. Monday remains dry across the
region, though increasing mid-level moisture will reveal itself
along the NV border, and more so across western Harney County
with the development of afternoon cumulus. Any shower or
thunderstorm threat on Monday will remain across northern CA and
s-central Oregon. The heat peaks on Tuesday with highs around
100 through the Snake Plain and lower elevations in SE Oregon,
while mtn valleys approach 90. Models have trended a degree or
two lower with recent solutions and are borderline Advisory
level for the Lower Treasure Valley zone (Ontario area) and
portions of Baker County, while below criteria elsewhere.
Given the forecast trend, holding off on Advisory for
now. Moisture aloft will extend north and east on Tuesday,
introducing a 10-20% chance of afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms from northern Harney County, through Baker
County. With precipitable water values around 0.50 inches
(40-50th %tile) and hot/dry lower surface conditions, gusty
outflow winds would be the most likely shower/storm attribute.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...The closed low off the
CA coast, gets lifted north, than eastward on Wednesday,
tracking through SE Oregon and SW Idaho. This is a northward
shift from yesterday and is looking like a favorable track (and
timing) for shower and thunderstorm development. Have introduced
low chance of showers and thunderstorms (15-20%) for Wednesday
afternoon and evening across SE Oregon and portions of SW Idaho.
The best chance for activity will stretch from central Harney
and Malheur counties north and east into the w-central Idaho
mtns. The Treasure Valley looks to be on the eastern fringe for
development. Dry conditions return for the end of the week and
next weekend. The upper ridge is suppressed Thur/Fri by a
passing upper trough which will act to cool temperatures to
near normal or slightly below normal. The heat will return next
weekend (and likely into the following week) as an upper ridge
rebuilds over the western US.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR with a few high clouds over terrain. Surface
winds: W-NW 5-15 kt becoming variable less than 6 kt overnight.
Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: W-NW 7-12 kt becoming variable less
than 6 kt overnight.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....DG
AVIATION.....SA