452
FXUS61 KBTV 160747
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
347 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Stationary boundary remains over our region today with some
scattered light rain showers. The forecast trends drier to close
out the week. Areawide conditions turn drier Sunday onward,
with a pleasant end of the weekend and start to the week
expected with a gradual warming trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Thursday...Weak stationary boundary will
remain in place today, leading to some scattered light rain
showers possible for most of the day. Front will finally shift
south and east of the region tonight, and drier weather will
return for tonight and Friday. Some ridging begins to work into
the region today, therefore don`t expect as many showers today
as the past couple days. High temperatures today will range from
the upper 60s to mid 70s. Could see some fog development again
overnight, but shouldn`t be as widespread as this morning since
we`ll be a day removed from the heavier precipitation and
ridging will help us start to dry out. A dry and pleasant day is
expected for Friday with high temperatures a good 5 to 10
degrees above seasonal normals as maximum temperatures reach the
lower to upper 70s. Will have increasing chances for showers
late in the day in our far western zones with next approaching
system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 AM EDT Thursday...Deterministic guidance continues to
be split in regard to precipitation chances for Friday night
through Saturday with notable differences seen in the track of a
mid-level shortwave trough. Drier solutions track this feature
north of the international border, while the wetter ones dip the
track across northern portions of the North Country and
Vermont. Ensemble members seem to lean more towards the wetter
solutions so have bumped PoPs a bit into the 40- 60% range
across the North Country with lower chances of 20-30% across
northern VT. A few rumbles of thunder additionally can`t be
ruled out Friday night, though mainly in the St. Lawrence
Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 325 AM EDT Thursday...A significant warming trend is then
expected for the latter half of the weekend through at least
Tuesday as guidance continues to trend towards a stronger
mid/upper level ridge building across the Northeast. Ensemble
probabilities of max temps greater than 75 degrees increase each
day from 60-80% of the members on Sunday, to 70-90% for Monday
and Tuesday with 2/3rds of members showing potential for highs
greater than 80 degrees in the wider valleys. The good news is
that dewpoints don`t look to be particularly high, only in the
50s, so humidity should be relatively comfortable. The next
chance for showers and thunderstorms comes Wednesday with the
potential for a strong frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 06Z Friday...Saturated ground, copious low level
moisture and light winds is leading to fog formation similar to
last night. After 13z, southeast to east flow will develop over
Vermont, except northwest at KBTV, and then east to northeast
over New York. Winds speeds should generally stay 5 to 9 knots.
A few showers will develop, mainly near the international border
about 15z to 23z. Will need to monitor potential for fog
formation once again tonight.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Neiles
SHORT TERM...Lahiff
LONG TERM...Lahiff
AVIATION...Neiles