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000
FXUS61 KBUF 172333
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
733 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will track across the region tonight with more
showers and a few gusty thunderstorms, especially across western
New York this evening. High pressure will move into the region
Thursday and Thursday night. A secondary cold front will bring
scattered showers Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At 730 p.m. a line of showers and thunderstorms is entering far
western NY, with a few lone cells developing out ahead of it.
The strongest storms will pass by to our south, however there is
a risk these will clip the far Western Southern Tier this
evening. Storms will weaken this evening as they encounter a
more stable airmass, but still will have the potential to
produce localized heavy rainfall across Western NY. There is a
Marginal risk of Severe Weather across portions of Chautauqua
and Cattaraugus counties with the main concerns being strong
winds through around 9 p.m. Locally heavy rainfall could last
through midnight, extending to the Genesee Valley. Fog is
possible northeast of Lake Erie following the passage of the
cold front.

Surface boundary will finish pushing through the eastern half of the
area Thursday. A few lingering showers may remain through late
morning, before ridging makes its way into western New York bringing
improving conditions for the afternoon. Deeper moisture ahead of the
boundary will keep steadier showers going east of Lake Ontario
through the morning hours, before tapering off to more in the way of
scattered activity behind the boundary. Temperatures will run mainly
in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A weakening mid-level ridge across the Eastern Seaboard Thursday
night will give way to broad troughing overhead of the Great Lakes
by Friday where it will remain overhead into the weekend. Within
this troughing pattern a few shortwave troughs will round its base
creating on and off active weather.

Thursday night, an occluded front sprawled across the eastern Lake
Ontario region will continue to exit east, supporting lingering
light rain showers. In the wake of the frontal passage, a transient
ridge will slide east across the region providing a short period of
dry weather.

A shortwave will begin to round the base of the trough Friday and
Friday night, supporting a the low pressure system over northern
Ontario to strengthen and gradually move into central Quebec by
Friday night. This will introduce an associated strong cold front to
sweep across the region from west to east, supporting steady rain to
fall. Rainfall amounts will average between a tenth to a quarter of
an inch. By Friday evening, rain showers will be exiting the North
Country, while a dry air mass fills with the approaching surface
ridge.

The aforementioned potent shortwave will then round the base of mid-
level trough and cross the area Saturday. This will support a
secondary cold front to pass across the region starting Saturday
morning with an uptick in rain shower activity Saturday afternoon.
Broad surface high pressure over the Central Plains will begin to
work its way east Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure centered over the Plains States at the start of this
period will ridge eastward across our area through Monday...then
will drift east across New England Monday night. This will help to
keep any passing weak northern stream systems confined to Ontario
and Quebec...thereby resulting in fair dry weather for our region.
With broad/flat troughing aloft on Sunday giving way to more of a
zonal flow during Monday...initially below-normal highs in the mid
40s to lower 50s Sunday will be followed by a return to near-normal
readings in the mid 50s to lower 60s on Monday.

While the medium range guidance packages continue to differ in some
of the details...there remains general agreement that a low-
amplitude mid-level trough and its associated surface reflection
will push east and across our region between Tuesday and Wednesday.
This system will bring our next general chance of showers...with
slightly above normal temps (upper 50s-mid 60s) out ahead of it on
Tuesday giving way to slightly below normal readings (generally low-
mid 50s) following its passage on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR flight conditions at 23Z with showers across the Eastern
Lake Ontario region, but these are on the light side with now
vsby restrictions.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms will enter western
NY this evening. Thunderstorms and heavy showers may result in
IFR or lower at KIAG, KBUF, and KJHW through this evening.
Convection will move across the area through 04Z, although there
will be a weakening trend as it moves eastward into a more
stable air mass.

IFR/MVFR flight conditions develop late tonight, due to deeper
low moisture and areas of fog which will move in behind the cold
front. Fog may be briefly dense at KBUF. Low moisture will
gradually lift and diminish during Thursday morning. Cigs
improve further to mainly VFR by late Thursday afternoon as
drier air builds in from the west.

Outlook...

Thursday night...Mainly VFR. A chance of showers.
Friday and Saturday...MVFR/VFR with a chance of showers.
Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft conditions will remain through early tonight on the
western end of Lake Ontario of an approaching warm front. A
cold front will then cross the lakes tonight, with the
potential for strong thunderstorms and special marine warnings
on Lake Erie this evening. A southwest-west flow will develop
by Friday into Saturday and could approach 20 knots with a
period of small craft conditions possible on both lakes at some
period during this period. High pressure building into the lower
Great Lakes will bring weakening winds Sunday and Monday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LOZ042-043.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/HSK/TMA
NEAR TERM...Apffel/TMA
SHORT TERM...EAJ
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...Apffel/HSK/TMA
MARINE...Apffel/TMA