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000
FXUS64 KFWD 161837
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
137 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Tomorrow Night/

A weak front pushing east across North and Central Texas is
currently crossing the I-35 corridor. The parent low responsible
for this front is well north of our region, moving across Iowa.
Given the large spatial difference between the front and the
parent system, little forward progress is expected from the front
this afternoon. Given a lack of cold air behind the front, minimal
to no impact is expected to today`s expected high temperatures.
In fact, the drier airmass in place will help our region warm into
the mid to upper 80s along and west of I-35, where westerly to
southwesterly winds are expected this afternoon and evening.

Tonight, the strengthening of the low-level jet should push the
front back to the north/northwest, ushering in cloudy conditions
for much of the night. Tonight`s temperatures are likely to remain
in the 70s given the thick blanket of clouds in place.

Cloud cover will continue into the day on Wednesday with deep
southerly flow in place. The aforementioned boundary will likely
be draped from north to south just west of our region by tomorrow
afternoon. With sufficient daytime heating, an isolated
thunderstorm or two will be possible along the leading edge of the
front. If a storm does develop, it would likely be sub-severe, be
short-lived and not reach the I-35 corridor.

Storm chances will quickly dwindle after 9pm as instability
diminishes areawide. Temperatures Wednesday night should stay in
the upper 60s to around 70 degrees with continued southerly winds.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 326 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024/

/Wednesday night through Monday/

Zonal flow aloft will set up the second half of the week,
resulting in a deepening surface lee trough across the Central
High Plains. An influx of Gulf moisture, coupled with the passing
of a few shortwaves, may produce a few showers Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. Better storm chances will arrive when a
dryline and cold front move into North Texas Thursday
afternoon/night. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s ahead of
these surface features and very warm temperatures (highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s) will yield plenty of instability in the
warm sector. Models are also indicating there will be enough shear
to sustain updrafts likely resulting in strong to severe storms.
Right now it appears the biggest threat for storms will be north
of the I-20 corridor but this is all dependent on just how far the
dryline mixes east and how far south the cold front moves. Storm
chances will temporarily end Thursday night/Friday morning with
the arrival of slightly drier air. However, models continue to
point towards an overrunning pattern setting up Friday night
through the weekend which will produce numerous showers and
thunderstorms and a potential for heavy rainfall. We will keep
high PoPs through Saturday and decrease them Sunday when the
shortwave trough axis passes to the east. The start of the work
week should be rain-free but it does look like more rain will
return by the middle of next week.

Temperatures will be warm Wednesday night and Thursday with lows
in the 60s to around 70 and highs from the mid 80s to the lower
90s. Temperatures will be cooler on the weekend due to cloud
cover, cold air advection behind the front, and plenty of rain-
cooled air. The coolest day will be Sunday with highs staying in
the 60s and lows Sunday night falling into the 40s and lower 50s.

79

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

After a morning with light rain and areawide low ceilings,
improvements are ongoing as much drier air filters in from the
west. Gusty westerly winds are expected this afternoon along with
VFR conditions through sunset.

Overnight, the stalled boundary that brought in this morning`s
rain will retreat west/northwest. This will allow for low clouds
to once again make their way into the region with VFR
transitioning to MVFR after 08Z. Guidance has continued to hint
at a period of widespread IFR impacting the I-35 corridor and
areas east beginning around sunrise, continuing through the late
morning hours. Several hours of IFR have been added to all TAF
sites tomorrow morning.

Improvements will commence by the afternoon as low-level mixing
leads to a gradual increase in cloud height. VFR conditions are
expected to return to the region by 19Z tomorrow with high clouds
continuing to cover much of the sky.

*There is a low potential of thunderstorms west of the D10
 airspace tomorrow afternoon. If the storms develop, they are not
 expected to reach the I-35 corridor, however, increased
 cloudiness will be possible late tomorrow afternoon. Any west
 incoming/outgoing traffic should see minimal impacts given
 coverage is expected to remain sparse.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    69  87  70  89  62 /   0   5   5  40  40
Waco                70  84  70  88  65 /   5  10  10  40  30
Paris               67  82  67  84  62 /   5   0   5  40  50
Denton              64  87  68  88  58 /   0   0   5  40  40
McKinney            68  84  69  86  61 /   0   0   5  40  40
Dallas              69  87  70  89  64 /   0   5   5  40  40
Terrell             69  83  69  85  63 /   5   5   5  40  50
Corsicana           71  85  71  87  66 /   5  10   5  40  40
Temple              69  84  69  88  65 /   5  10  10  40  30
Mineral Wells       62  89  67  91  57 /   0  10   5  40  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$