258
FXUS63 KICT 111115
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
615 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet and dry weather today

- Region wide rain Sunday afternoon and into the start of next week

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday night and
into Thursday looking likely

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Weak ridging behind a weak cool front will keep winds light and
variable today.  Temperatures are expected to remain near or a
little above normal for this time of year today.  This will make
today the nicest day of the next seven days.  Sunday, the next
weather system will be encroaching on the region during the
afternoon.  Winds will turn to the south and moisture advection will
return to the region.  Rain chances will increase rapidly during the
night Sunday and into Monday.  Orientation of this system is not
conducive to severe weather and as such, severe thunderstorms are
not expected.  PW values are expected to approach the 1 inch mark
which is on the higher end of normal for this time of year.  This
higher level PW supports period of moderate to even heavy rainfall
over the region which could allow some areas to rainfall over an
inch during this period.  The main "fly in the ointment" here is the
moisture advection depicted between the main ensemble families is
not uniform and neither is the 500mb vorticity field.  This strongly
indicates the ensembles do not have a good handle on the potential
rainfall amounts as of yet.  As such, confidence in most areas
receiving over an inch of rain is rather low (20%) at this time. For
this forecast cycle, have a higher confidence (60%) that most areas
will be get rainfall in the 1/2 inch range with locally higher
amounts depending on where the main 500mb low tracks.

Monday afternoon and into Tuesday, the rain will come to an end as
an area of ridging will build into the CWA.  Temperatures will
remain near normal for Tuesday as the system that will bring the
rain on Sunday night and Monday will not bring much if any cooler
air with it.  By Wednesday and into Thursday, the next weather
system will approach the CWA.  Ensembles are still having difficulty
resolving this next system but most agree this next system is likely
to bring another round of rain. Orientation of this system presented
on this forecast cycle is not conducive to severe weather and may
inhibit thunderstorm development.  At this point, it appears more
wide spread shower with embedded thunderstorm event. Confidence in
this solution remains low (30%) and will need to see further
forecast cycles before confidence can improve.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 611 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions will continue with light and variable winds
through the first 12 hours of the TAF period. Winds will pick
up some and come out of the south after about 22Z this
afternoon. After 06Z, the chances for showers will pick up with
KRSl and KGBD the most likely terminals to see any kind of
precipitation. There is also a chance at KHUT and KICT during
this time but chances are not high enough to place in the TAF at
this time. The chances for thunderstorms will increase
significant after this TAF period.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ELM
AVIATION...ELM