989
FXUS63 KICT 130848
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
348 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers/isolated storm chances lingering through tonight.

- Chance for storms Tuesday night through Thursday night.

- Trending warmer for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

Currently a shortwave trough is translating across the Plains while
upper ridging is noted over the western CONUS and Ohio/Tennessee
Valleys. Scattered showers and isolated storms will continue to
linger across the area today. A few storms late afternoon may
be strong with pea to dime sized hail possible across southeast
KS where 20kts of shear will combine with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE
during peak heating.

Late evening and tonight, showers will come to end across the area
as the shortwave trough axis moves into the Mid Mississippi Valley.
Brief shortwave ridging will move overhead tomorrow bringing quiet
weather and temps the mid to upper 70s for the daytime. By tomorrow
night, a compact subtle shortwave/500mb vort max will move ahead of
the next main trough bringing the potential to see an elevated
storm or two develop and/or move in from NW KS.

As mentioned in the previous discussion, there is a conditional
chance for severe storms developing along a cold front
Wednesday afternoon/evening. Mid 60s dewpoints are expected to
surge northward into the area ahead of the next trough to move
across the region, with 40 to 50 kts of bulk shear, steep
midlevel lapse rates, and MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg possible.
Surface convergence looks to be pretty minimal.

The long range forecast remains quite uncertain with models
differing widely after Thursday. Cluster analysis shows some of the
biggest differences for the weekend period are the degree of ridging
off the Pacific NW, and wavelength and amplitude of the trough
over south central Canada and the northern Plains. Therefore,
confidence in the forecast including temps in the upper 80s (and
even low 90s in SC SK) are of low confidence at this time. Will
remain with NBM for now, but even the 25-75th % range of NBM
MaxT differs by at least 10 degrees. Expect adjustments to the
these periods in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

A very messy TAF cycle this time around. A large areas of
showers is moving through the region which is bringing some MVFR
and IFR conditions across the region with KHUT, KICT and KSLN
the main terminals affected. The shower activity will be the
primary mode of weather with some embedded thunderstorm activity
as well. As such, only did TEMPO groups for TAFs this time
around as it is much more likely showers will persist with only
a few minutes of thunder with some of the stronger cells. The
shower activity is expected to abate some after 12Z but the
atmospheric conditions will keep the MVFR and IFR CIGs in the
region. There is also a chance for some drizzle this morning but
feel this will be restricted to the KRSL and KGBD area but
can`t rule it out elsewhere either. By 18Z to 20Z, daytime
heating will bring a chance for some showers and thunderstorms.
Areal coverage is expected to be limited and again, feel SHRA
will be the primary mode. This resulted in the PROB30s later in
the TAF period with either SHRA/TSRA depending on confidence.
This SHRA/TSRA activity will clear by the 00Z to 02Z time frame
but MVFR conditions may linger in a few areas.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KMB
AVIATION...ELM