472
FXUS63 KMPX 061130
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
630 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unsettled weather this week with the focus on tonight into
  Tuesday morning and Wednesday afternoon to Wednesday night.

- Gusty winds today, especially in western Minnesota where a
  Wind Advisory is in effect.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Today and tomorrow... The high pressure responsible for the
great day yesterday will be off to our east over the Great
Lakes. Then to the west we will have the low for our next system
moving into the Northern Plains. With us in the center, this
will increase the pressure gradient and give us a classic signal
for gusty winds. This is only enhanced by the warm air
advection that we will get from the southerly winds today. This
advection will warm the lower atmosphere allowing for mixing,
further increasing confidence that today will be a windy day. As
mentioned in previous discussions, today will be the warmest
day of the week with temperatures in the lower 70s. Temperatures
won`t get much warmer than that thanks to cloud cover moving
west to east this morning through the afternoon as our next
round of rain moves in. As you would expect with our 100 PoPs,
rain is definite as all members in the LREF and HREF show a line
of showers passing through associated with the previously
mentioned system. Where there remains more spread through is in
QPF. The LREF remains higher with the previously mentioned quick
0.50-0.75" accumulations expected. HREF PMM show a more
widespread 0.25-0.50" accumulation with more localized totals of
0.5-1.0" accumulations. What is less certain is if the
precipitation rates will maintain as the line moves deeper into
Minnesota. This is where the difference is, as HREF PMM keeps
the higher totals more focused on southwestern Minnesota with a
notable decrease in rain rate as it progresses deeper into the
state. The risk for thunderstorms remains low as instability is
limited, largely thanks to the time of day it passes through.
However with high winds aloft we could still see some gusty
winds mix down in the showers. We will remain in the warm sector
on Tuesday and near the frontal boundary so additional activity
could occur. This is shown in the 06Z HRRR for example with
another line of thunderstorms feeding off of marginal
instability across eastern Minnesota and into western Wisconsin.
With limited shear it would be unlikely to see anything severe.

Wednesday through Sunday... The upper low will remain rooted
over the north central US until it finally starts to move out
Friday. This will give continued chances for unsettled weather.
Over the last few runs however ensembles have started to
converge on Wednesday afternoon to Wednesday night as the next best
chance for activity. As the upper low continues to churn over
us an embedded short wave in its circulation could have enough
PVA associated with it to bring with it some rain. Currently the
best chances here look to be along the I-90 corridor. There are
more chances for precipitation after this, but there are very
high spreads in the ensemble models so PoPs have been kept low.
Temperature wise, Wednesday will be similar to Tuesday in the
mid 60s to lower 70s before Thursday ends up our coolest day of
the week as we finally get to the cooler side of this system.
Temperatures still likely getting into the lower 60s though.
Temperatures will likely hold near normal Friday into the
weekend. There is another round of synoptic forcing late Friday
into early Saturday, but not much QPF in ensemble systems due
to questionable moisture.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

VFR through the day today with increasing winds. Winds will gust
from the southeast 25 to 35 knots by this afternoon. Winds will
continue to be elevated going into tonight. Rain will spread
from west to east across all terminals tonight into Tuesday
morning. Mainly MVFR during this rain with IFR possible in
thunderstorms. Thunderstorms are more likely farther west at AXN
and RWF as the chances for storms decrease as you head farther
east since that will be later at night.

KMSP... Also VFR and gusting from the southeast. Low VFR or high
MVFR tonight as a line of rain showers passes through. Chance
for thunderstorms, but these are more likely to the west than at
MSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE PM...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA. Wind SW 15G25 kts.
WED...Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR/-TSRA. Wind E 10-15 kts.
THU...VFR. Chance MVFR/-RA PM. Wind NE 10-20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM CDT this
     evening for Brown-Chippewa-Douglas-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui
     Parle-Martin-Pope-Redwood-Renville-Stevens-Swift-Watonwan-
     Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...NDC