310
FNUS73 KMQT 131458
FWSMQT

Spot Forecast for Fuji Rx...USDA Hiawatha NF
National Weather Service Marquette MI
1058 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on May 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Primary forecasting challenge at this spot location
will be wind direction. Winds are expected to be north, shifting to
northwest in the afternoon. But if a lake breeze develops within the
low pressure gradient Tuesday, the wind may shift to northeast.
Timing for when this would be most likely appears to be between 2 and
5pm local time. Otherwise, temperatures should climb through the
50s through the day, peaking in the upper 50s. This should yield
minimum RH values near 40%. Overnight, good RH recovery is expected.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........44 at ignition...Max 57.
RH..................73 percent at ignition...Min 42 percent.
Dewpoint............35.
33-foot winds.......Winds north at 8 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    North winds 8 to 13 mph.
20-foot winds.......North winds 6 to 10 mph. Becoming northwest in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......700 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 700-2600 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor (105) at ignition...max good (314.0).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.
Ceiling (kft).......24 early in the morning.

TIME (EDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........2      2      2      2      2
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1
Temp............40     47     52     55     56
Dewpoint........37     36     34     33     33
RH..............90     65     50     44     42
33 ft wind......N 8    N 10   NW 12  NW 12  NW 13
20 ft wind......N 6    N 8    NW 10  NW 10  NW 10
Wind gust.......10     11     13     13     14
Mix hgt (ft)....700    1700   2500   2600   2600
Haines index....3      4      4      4      4
VIndx kt-ft/100.11     23     30     31     31
Ceiling (kft)...24     24     25     25

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Min 38.
RH..................Max 92 percent.
Dewpoint............34.
33-foot winds.......North winds 5 to 13 mph shifting to the
                    northeast around 5 mph after 3 am.
20-foot winds.......North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the
                    northeast around 4 mph after 3 am.
Mixing height.......200-2100 ft AGL.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (17.0-246.0).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........1   1   1   4   7   10  10  11  11  12  13  14
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............54  52  50  47  44  42  41  41  41  40  38  38
Dewpoint........33  33  33  33  33  33  33  33  34  34  34  35
RH..............44  47  51  56  65  70  73  74  76  80  86  90
33 ft wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   NE  NE  NE
33 ft wind spd..13  13  13  12  12  12  7   7   7   5   5   5
20 ft wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   NE  NE  NE
20 ft wind spd..10  10  10  10  10  10  6   6   6   4   4   4
Wind gust.......16  16  16  14  14  14  7   7   7   6   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...2.1 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Haines index....4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VIndx kt-ft/100.25  20  15  10  5   3   2   2   3   3   3   3

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Temperature.........Max 60.
RH..................Min 46 percent.
Dewpoint............37.
33-foot winds.......Northeast winds 5 to 8 mph shifting to the
                    north around 8 mph late in the afternoon.
20-foot winds.......Northeast winds up to 6 mph shifting to the
                    north around 6 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......0-1300 ft AGL increasing to 2700-4200 ft AGL in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Ventilation index...Poor to fair (0.0-209.0).
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Rainfall amount.....0.00 inches.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........17     24     20     19     21     34
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............38     43     52     57     59     58
Dewpoint........36     38     38     38     38     38
RH..............92     82     60     49     46     47
33 ft wind......NE 5   NE 5   NE 6   N 8    N 8    N 8
20 ft wind......NE 4   NE 4   NE 5   N 6    N 6    N 6
Wind gust.......6      6      7      10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....100    300    2700   4200   3900   3300
Haines index....3      3      4      4      5      5
VIndx kt-ft/100.1      2      16     21     16     13
Ceiling (kft)...

$$
Forecaster...JTP
Requested by...Patty Carrick
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2413643.1/MQT
.DELDT 05/13/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Patricia.carrick@usda.gov