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000
FXUS64 KOHX 260521
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1221 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 904 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

As of 9 PM CDT...skies across Middle Tennessee are overcast,
mainly due to high clouds moving in from the west/northwest.
Temperatures have fallen some this evening with readings mainly in
the low 60s at this hour. Winds are light and variable across the
region. Latest WSR-88D radar trends show the band of showers,
located along the Tennessee River as of the last update at 6 pm,
has diminished in coverage. This was anticipated as a result of
the substantial layer of dry air in the lower portions of the
atmosphere, specifically around 800 mb.

For the rest of tonight, anticipate this band of showers to
continue weakening as it spreads east, eventually becoming an area
of scattered showers as it heads toward the Plateau. Precipitation
amounts will be quite light, with many locals receiving only a few
hundredths of an inch. Amounts diminish as showers spread east.
Mild temperatures are forecast tonight as the overcast conditions
should prevent temperatures from falling much. For tomorrow,
expect warmer temperatures behind the passage of a warm front and
as warm air advection returns from the south/southeast. Was
pondering lowering afternoon temperatures as there may be some
lingering cloud cover, but left as is for now. Therefore,
afternoon highs could approach the mid 80s for some locations,
especially along the Tennessee River where more breaks in the
clouds can be expected. Going into tomorrow night, with south
winds persisting overnight and WAA continuing, we don`t anticipate
low temperatures to reach normal levels. In fact, we`ll be quite
warm with lows in the 60s, potentially upper 60s in the Nashville
metro.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1057 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

A beautiful day is shaping up with mostly sunny skies this
morning and temperatures well into the 60`s at this time. These
temperatures will continue to warm underneath plenty of sun, and
highs should reach into the mid-70`s. Cloud cover will return
though as a look at satellite shows abundant clouds associated
with a shortwave to our west. Meanwhile, surface observations
show a warm front to our south over central MS and AL. This
shortwave and warm front will move through the area tonight and
into Friday morning, resulting in scattered showers. Rain totals
should remain light with most likely not seeing more than a few
hundredths of an inch. With little instability, chances of
thunderstorms are low as well.

Rain should come to an end by late Friday morning or early
afternoon with the remainder of the day being nice as high
temperatures continue their warming trend into the upper-70`s to
low-80`s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1057 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

An overall quiet pattern for Middle TN looks to set up this
weekend as ridging builds overhead, allowing temperatures to warm
into the mid-80`s. A strong upper-level low over the Great Plains,
however, will make for a decent pressure gradient which will cause
breezy winds this weekend. Strongest winds are expected on
Saturday with gusts of 25 to 35 mph at times.

The upper-level ridge moves east early next week, allowing for a
weak front to move through the area Monday and into Tuesday.
Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase with this front. But the
severe weather threat still looks low with CAPE values less than
500 J/kg, weak mid-level lapse rates, and little shear.

Slight rain chances may persist into the middle of next week with
a few additional weak disturbances tracking through the area. But
the severe weather risk still looks low as we head into early May.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the TAF period. A few light
showers are moving through the area and working from west to east
through the morning. Cigs BKN to OVC 050-080 becoming SCT in the
afternoon. Light winds overnight picking up by 17z with gusts to
23 knots possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      83  67  84  65 /  20  10   0   0
Clarksville    82  66  84  65 /  20  10  10   0
Crossville     73  60  74  59 /  30  10   0   0
Columbia       84  66  83  64 /  10  10   0   0
Cookeville     76  63  78  62 /  30  10   0   0
Jamestown      74  61  76  60 /  40  10   0   0
Lawrenceburg   82  66  82  64 /  10  10   0   0
Murfreesboro   83  66  83  64 /  20  10   0   0
Waverly        84  66  84  65 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Husted
SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Mueller