Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 250259
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
859 PM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.UPDATE...

Cold front has stalled across the eastern Magic Valley into the
lower Snake Plain. Showers along the front have been slow to
diminish this evening. The 00z NAM and the HRRR even indicate that
we may not completely rid ourselves of showers late in the night.
Updated forecast to keep low chances of showers near the front
through the night.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 207 PM MDT Sun Mar 24 2024/

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night. Satellite imagery
shows deep trough over the Western US with trough axis neatly
overhead East Idaho early this afternoon, and shortwave axis
sliding south through the Idaho panhandle. Radar imagery shows
widespread shower activity across the region. Snow levels are
widely varying between 5500 and 6500 ft. Given the convective
element and mild snow levels, not expecting significant
accumulations through the remainder of the day. 90th percentile
snow amounts focus up to 6 inches of accumulation across a few
ranges in the southern highlands, but in general believe this to
be over done and expect amounts closer to the means up to 3
inches. Much of the lower and mid level cloud cover should
dissipate with the loss of daytime convective influence, leaving
just high cloud the concern for the overnight. Given the recent
upgrade to G4 magnetic storm levels by the Space Weather
Prediction Center, that could mean potential aurora viewing
overnight, if the clearing can be realized! Best chances appear to
be from Blackfoot to Island Park at this time.

As the panhandle shortwave drops through the state during the day
Monday, expect another round of showers. Temperatures should be a
few degrees colder, so more valley areas will be subject to seeing
snow. Similar to this afternoon, however, amounts are not expected
to be significant, so will continue to forego issuing any
headlines. DMH

LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Sunday.
The extended period will be an active one with rain/snow chances
almost daily and temperatures running within a few degrees of
normal. Lingering showers will continue on Tuesday as the departing
trough continues to lift across the central U.S. Snow levels will be
low enough to support snow to valley floors. A transient ridge will
move through on Wednesday, allowing for a break in the active
pattern with mostly dry conditions outside of slight chances for
showers over the central and eastern mountains. Heading into
Wednesday night, the next potent upper low will be advancing toward
the west coast with the National Blend carrying widespread PoPs of
60% to 95% again on Thursday. Models show the low rotating southward
along the coastline, reaching the southern CA coast by next weekend.
As it tracks south, southwest flow aloft will filter the bulk of
moisture into Southeast Idaho on Thursday. Warmer temperatures will
mean mostly rain for locations below 6,000 feet elevation throughout
the remainder of next week. NBM 24-hour snowfall probabilities of 3
inches Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning only runs 10% to
25% across the highest peaks of the central and eastern mountains
with up to 45% chance across the Bear River Range. Cropp

AVIATION...
Isolated rain and snow showers will continue throughout the period
with predominately VFR conditions forecast. However, heavy
rain/snow, degraded VIS and CIGs, gusty winds, and lightning could
accompany any convectively enhanced bands of precipitation. HREF
probability of thunder is highest near KBYI, KPIH, and KSUN, where
chances range around 5-35% this afternoon and evening. Cropp

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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