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000
FXUS65 KREV 141948
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
1248 PM PDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Chilly and showery conditions continue through tonight as a low
pressure moves eastward across the Great Basin. A drier weather
pattern then returns for this week, with temperatures returning
to near mid-April averages on Monday. The remainder of the week
will bring further warming with afternoon highs 10 to 15 degrees
above average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Key points:

* Cool and showery conditions continue this evening then wind down
  overnight.

* A drier weather pattern will return for this week, with a longer
  period of warmer spring conditions likely.

Satellite/radar imagery currently shows a diminishing area of
light showers across northeast CA and western NV mainly from I-80
northward. The high resolution guidance develops convection along
the NV/OR border that evolves into a band of steadier rain/snow
marching southward across northern Washoe County and northeast CA
through late afternoon. While high April sun angles will prevent
much snow accumulation on roads, there could be short periods of
slushy conditions during heavier snow rates on higher elevation
road segments such as Cedar Pass, US-395 in northeast Lassen
County, and several CA state highways north and west of
Susanville.

As we get closer to sunset, leftover showers from this precip
band move across the Tahoe basin and near I-80 in far western NV
but travel impacts will be minor with most shower activity ending
prior to midnight.

The upper low responsible for this precip will then exit to the
east across the Great Basin early Monday, giving way to a ridge
of high pressure near the west coast. This ridge will remain
rather flat across CA-NV in response to another trough moving
along the US-Canada border through midweek, before amplifying
slightly by late week/next weekend. Even with the flatter ridge,
we`ll still be in an overall dry pattern and be able to shake off
this recent chilly spell. By Monday, highs are expected to
rebound into the lower-mid 60s across most lower elevations, with
50s for Sierra communities and areas near the OR border. Further
warming is anticipated as the week progresses, although this will
be a slower process for areas well north of I-80, due to the
fringe effects of the trough along the US-Canada border.

For late week into next weekend, the majority of the ensemble
guidance favors daytime highs about 10-15 degrees above average,
well into the 70s and possibly reaching 80 for lower elevations,
with mainly 60s for most Sierra communities. This will bring
increased melting of the Sierra snowpack, with faster cold flows
on rivers and streams. Also with these warmer conditions, we could
see some PM cumulus buildups and possibly a couple of brief
showers if a weak upper disturbance moves overhead, but this
potential is only in the 5-10% range at this time. MJD

&&

.AVIATION...

* Isolated-scattered showers will continue into this evening,
  favoring the Sierra and northeast CA where occasional MVFR
  conditions and terrain obscurement will persist around showers.
  Thunder chances will remain low and mainly near the Oregon
  border (15% chance). Showers will gradually end overnight as the
  upper low begins to shift towards the eastern Great Basin.

* Breezy W-NW winds will continue, especially north of I-80 and
  along the eastern Sierra, with gusts mainly in the 20-25 kt
  range through 03Z then decrease overnight. FL100 winds will
  shift to more northerly at 25-35 kt tonight and Monday morning
  on the back side of the upper low, bringing areas of turbulence.

* Cloud cover will hang around through much of tonight but there
  is a 20% chance that enough breaks may occur for some patchy
  freezing fog 10-16Z at KTRK. The freezing fog potential at KTRK
  increases to above 70% for Tuesday AM, with skies and light
  winds producing conditions more favorable for fog formation.

* A drier and warmer pattern is setting up for the week ahead with
  shower chances very low and PM wind gusts generally 20 kts or
  less at the main terminals.

MJD

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$