225
FXUS61 KRLX 181559
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1159 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms this weekend could
cause localized high water, mainly this afternoon and evening.
High pressure surface and aloft builds through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1025 AM Saturday...

Fine-tuned timing and coverage of showers and thunderstorms
through this evening. Other than that, and shaking the stratus
the fog lifted into, the forecast is on track.

As of 155 AM Saturday...

An upper level disturbance will pull out of the area early this
morning, providing an end to the widespread rain. Moisture will
remain behind however, so some showers remain possible. Daytime
heating will work with the moisture left behind to provide
afternoon showers and thunderstorms. These will be more numerous
in eastern West Virginia and southwestern Virginia. While
precipitable water values will drop some compared to Friday, the
ground is now saturated in most locations. Am also concerned
with the slow moving nature of the storms today. Therefore can
not rule out some isolated flash flooding.

With all the recent rainfall and light winds tonight, expect
dense fog to form at most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Saturday...

The surface low responsible for the heavy rain will be out of our
area on Sunday, but remnant moisture will linger across the
area, mostly along the eastern mountains. This will only manifest
as afternoon showers or an isolated thunderstorm or two across
the higher elevations though. Thankfully, any additional
rainfall amounts look rather light.

Stark clearing will take place from west to east on Sunday as an
upper-level ridge moves in to bring most of us a bit of a dry spell
to end the weekend. Temperatures will be warm and above normal for
the season, with temperatures in the low to mid 80s being common
across the lowlands; 70s in the mountains.

On Monday, the ridge will continue to build, keeping us mostly
dry. A few shortwaves could move through the pattern to create
chances for diurnal convection, especially with a warming trend
in place. Confidence is low at this time for anything certain or
organized. Temperatures will be well above normal with mid to
upper 80s expected for the bulk of the lowlands; 70s and 80s in
the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1200 PM Saturday...

Low pressure will move northeast into Canada in the middle of next
week, eventually sweeping a cold front across the area on Thursday,
although there is uncertainty in its timing and how far southward
the front will move through our area. There could be a strong storm
Wednesday or Thursday during this period, with better chances at
this point looking to be to our west, but confidence in this is low
at this point due to uncertainty. Another wave looks to move into
the area for the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 543 AM Saturday...

After dense fog burns off this morning, expect a cumulus deck.
The cumulus deck could produce MVFR conditions this morning. Some
afternoon showers and thunderstorms can be expected to cause
restrictions, most numerous in eastern and southern West
Virginia and southwestern Virginia.

Dense fog is expected to form across much of the area tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog lifting this morning could
vary. Timing and intensity of showers and thunderstorms today
could vary.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR in dense fog expected Sunday morning. IFR possible in rain
showers and thunderstorms Sunday in eastern West Virginia and
southwestern Virginia.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...RPY/TRM
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY