Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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FXAK69 PAFG 220934
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
134 AM AKDT MON SEP 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS...INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUE TO PERFORM WELL IN THE
SHORT TERM HOWEVER THEY CONTINUE TO DISPLAY CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN
THE MID RANGE AND ARE PERFORMING POORLY IN THE LONG RANGE WITH
THE 22ND AT 00Z ECMWF AND 22ND AT 00Z GFS NEARLY COMPLETELY OUT
OF PHASE PAST DAY 7. WILL RELY ON A HIGH DEGREE OF CONTINUITY
WHICH WAS BASED HEAVILY ON WPC GUIDANCE IN THE MID AND LONG RANGE.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA A 521 DAM LOW JUST NORTH OF WRANGELL ISLAND
CONTINUES TO ANCHOR A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING STRAIT. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALONG WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTH AND EAST TO BE 522 DAM OVER JUST NORTH OF BARROW TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH EAST
AND WILL BE ALONG A BARROW TO PAGA TO PAMC LINE TUESDAY AN ALONG A
PASC TO PFYU TO PAFA LINE TUESDAY EVENING. THE TROUGH CONTINUES
EAST AND WILL BE ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER WEDNESDAY MORNING. ZONAL
FLOW SETS UP OVER NORTHERN ALASKA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA IS PRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS A SERIES OF
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA. TIMING OF THESE WAVES IS PROBLEMATIC THIS FAR OUT. WHAT
MODEL CONSENSUS THERE IS BY LATE IN THE WEEK INDICATES DEEP
CYCLOGENISIS IN THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THURSDAY.

ON THE SURFACE...A 1003 MB LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR POINT
THOMPSON CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN BEAUFORT
SEA AS A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH TO NEAR OLD CROW AND THEN
SOUTHWEST TO EAGLE AND THE TOK CUTOFF CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE
EAST. LINGERING SHOWERS EAST OF FAIRBANKS ARE MIXING WITH SNOW.
EXPECT MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE. A 995
MB LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED AROUND 100 NM NORTHWEST OF POINT LAY WILL
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST TO
BE LOCATED NEAR BARROW AS A 997 MB LOW THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTH OF THE LOW AND WILL SLICE THROUGH THE WESTERN BROOKS
RANGE AND KOTZEBUE SOUND TODAY. EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE TODAY IN WESTERN ALASKA AND A TRANSITION
TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TUESDAY.
EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR INCLUDING THE FAIRBANKS
AREA. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO CANADA WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

ARCTIC COAST AND PLAIN...THE MESSY WEATHER CONTINUES WITH RAIN
NEAR THE NORTHWEST COAST SOUTH OF ICY CAPE AND A RAIN AND SNOW
MIX TODAY MOVING EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH SLOPE
THIS EVENING. MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE INLAND AND
IN THE BROOKS RANGE.

WEST COAST AND INTERIOR...THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
EASTERN BERING SEA WILL BE DISPLACED SOUTHWARD AS A FRONT SWEEPS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
SWEEPS INTO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. THE FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR TUESDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.



COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...SMALL RISES NOTED ON INTERIOR STREAMS AND RIVERS WITH
RECENT RAINFALL...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES ARE
EXPECTED.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225.
&&

$$

CCC SEP 14



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