Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
FXAK69 PAFG 061207
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
307 AM AKST Tue Dec 6 2016
Models...Doing well with the big picture scenario, but lacking
quite a bit in the microclimate areas. Completely missed the winds
coming out of the some of the drainages yesterday that kept
temperatures 20+ degrees warmer than guidance. Short term
solutions look reasonable today so will lean on a blend of the
solutions for the most areas. Will need to make some adjustments
for some of the those microclimate areas today to keep the
temperatures up a bit as localized winds persist out of some of
Aloft...At 500 hpa...A 550 dam closed high over Point Barrow will
merge with a ridge building over the eastern Bering Sea and
Chukchi Sea. A 560 dam high center will develop over the Chukotsk
Peninsula Wednesday evening and move north over the western arctic
Thursday morning and becomes stationary. This will create a
pseudo omega blocking pattern with several lows moving around
over the Gulf of Alaska and Bristol Bay. This pattern will
continue into the weekend with the high eventually drifting south
and east Sunday. At 850 hpa...The Fairbanks upper air sounding had
-17.3 celsius at 3 pm. This was around 6 degrees cooler than the
previous day. Temperatures will remain about the same through
Friday, then warm a couple more degrees.
Surface...A 1052 mb high center sits over the Northwest
Territories with ridging extending west and south over the
forecast area, and will persist into the weekend. A 1012 mb low
over Kodiak Island will move east in to the Gulf of Alaska then
drift slowly south before merging with a low moving to the British
Columbia coast Friday. Locally, tight pressure gradients in some
valleys producing mixing and warmer temperatures.
Arctic Coast and Brooks Range...Not much change the next few days.
Mostly clear skies will continue. Winds generally east to
southeast at 5 to 15 mph. Low temperatures will range from around
20 below along the coast to around 45 below in some of the coastal
plains locations, while highs will range from around 10 below to
around 30 below.
West Coast and Western Interior...Mostly clear conditions next
couple days. Winds along the coast northeast to southeast at 5 to
15 mph, inland winds will generally be light. Temperatures a bit
warmer in the windier locations. Coldest temperatures will be in
the middle Yukon Valley at around 30 below.
Central and Eastern Interior...The forecast challenges in the
interior again today will be the temperatures. The gradient winds
that developed coming out of some of the valleys yesterday made
temperatures about 20 degrees warmer than forecast, and today will
be just as hard to figure out. Models indicate the gradient is
still in place and some observation points indicate winds gusting
to around 25 mph over the hills to the north and west of
Fairbanks. Will forecast worst scenario, but temperatures in some
areas could be 20 degrees warmer than forecast again today.
Otherwise, mostly clear conditions will prevail.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.
Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ220-PKZ225.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ245.
SDB DEC 16