Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK

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193
FXAK69 PAFG 281233
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
433 AM AKDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery suggests that the ridge aloft that lay along
a line from Bethel to Kotzebue to Kotzebue Saturday afternoon
has weakened pretty much as earlier advertised, and that the
portion of the ridge northeast of Kotzebue has flopped over
and now lies through Umiat and Prudhoe Bay.

The models all have the ridge continuing to weaken today, and
flatten on top, under assault from the cold front moving east
over the Chukchi Sea. It has already been weakened by the series
of short waves associated with the low aloft over northwest
Canada. Satellite imagery also suggests that the cold front itself
weakening, but only in the sense that the boundary has become
poorly defined. Cooling in our arctic zones is a done deal. Expect
the cold front to move east over the arctic slope today through
Monday, ultimately to become stationary over the Books Range.

Support aloft for the cold front reaches south into the Bering
Sea and has entrained the remnants of the old low that has
been southwest of Saint Matthew Island for the past couple of
days. That low, now mostly aloft, has been moving north overnight
but will turn northeast then east today, passing south of Saint
Lawrence Island later this morning then turning southeast to
pass over the Yukon Delta late Sunday night, and continuing
southeast thereafter. Probably a bit of precipitation from the
thing, but not much.

The ridge aloft rebuilds somewhat late Sunday night and Monday.
It will remain a factor in the weather over northern Alaska
through mid-week, after which point the numerical models diverge
pretty sharply.

The surface high moving in behind the cold front is presently
at 1034 mb south of Wrangel Island. It will continue northeast
to be 1038 mb about midway between Wrangel Island and Cape
Lisburne at 4 PM this afternoon, and 1042 mb about 200 nm north
of Prudhoe Bay at 4 PM Monday afternoon. It looks like a pretty
strong pressure gradient will develop north-south over the Brooks
Range, and probably and a strong temperature gradient as well.
Expect some gusty northeast winds through the passes tonight and
Monday.

Our western interior remains convectively stable, though we may
see a little rain in zone 217. The eastern interior has stabilized
behind the short wave that triggered the thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon and evening. Not even any showers except in zones 223,
226, and in the upper Tanana Valley in zone 224, and no thunder
expected. Most of the interior will destabilize a bit on Monday,
but little activity is expected. Convection will likely be capped
in most areas.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No issues.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
High water continues on the Noatak and Kobuk rivers, but
apparently nothing is getting flooded except the gravel bars.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory for PKZ220-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ245.
&&

$$

AUG 16



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