Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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980
FXUS64 KAMA 050937
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
337 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A rather tranquil forecast as we go through the work week with some
light snow possible across the far northeastern Panhandles by mid
week. The big weather highlight of the forecast will be the large
swing in temperatures.

As we go into the day on Monday, we will edge out one day with well
above average temperatures for early December as south to southwest
flow will advect some warmer temperatures with highs ranging from
the lower to mid 60s. This will be followed by a cold front that will
move through the Panhandles late Monday night and clear south out of
the Panhandles by Tuesday morning. In the wake of the cold front,
temperatures will drop to below average. Latest 05/00Z model and
probabilistic data does show an upper level wave moving east from
the Rockies with an embedded elongated vort max can help to induce
some localized ascent. With limited surface and upper level moisture
in- conjunction with limited surface based lift, model trends have
been decreasing QPF associated with this synoptic feature. P-type
with this system will be cold enough for some snow showers in the far
northeastern Panhandles near the axis of the broad upper level
feature as it moves east across western Kansas during the day on
Wednesday.

Once this weak system exits the region, a large scale high pressure
system will dive south into the Panhandles advecting in some very
cold temperatures with lows on Wednesday and Thursday night in the
lower to mid teens with highs on Thursday at or below freezing for
most of the Panhandles. As we go towards Friday into the weekend, a
broad surface high pressure system will develop in the southeastern
states helping to reestablish a south to southwesterly flow allowing
temperatures to warm up back to near average.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                64  28  40  27  42 /   0   0   0  10  10
Beaver OK                  60  28  40  24  33 /   0   0   0  20  20
Boise City OK              63  21  36  22  31 /   0   0   5  10  10
Borger TX                  63  30  43  29  40 /   0   0   0  10  10
Boys Ranch TX              65  27  40  27  41 /   0   0   0  10  10
Canyon TX                  65  28  40  28  44 /   0   0   0  10  10
Clarendon TX               61  31  42  28  46 /   0   0   0  10  10
Dalhart TX                 64  25  38  25  38 /   0   0   0  10  10
Guymon OK                  62  26  39  26  34 /   0   0   0  10  20
Hereford TX                66  28  42  27  45 /   0   0   0  10  10
Lipscomb TX                60  30  42  25  37 /   0   0   5  10  10
Pampa TX                   60  28  38  26  40 /   0   0   5  10  10
Shamrock TX                57  32  43  27  43 /   0   0   5  10  10
Wellington TX              58  33  45  29  47 /   0   0   5  10  10

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

15/29



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