Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 262241

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
441 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

VFR conditions and light winds to prevail for the first half of
the 00Z TAF issuance. Winds will increase out of the southwest
as mixing increases in the late afternoon hours. Winds of 15kt to
20kt with gusts up to 30kt will be possible at all terminals with
the strongest being at KDHT. These strong winds will persist
until the last hour of this TAF cycle before diminishing.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 303 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017/

A busy forecast with Fire Weather continuing to be the issue for
the short term and even into the extended. West flow will continue
today and shift to a more southwesterly flow on Monday. This will
bring temperatures back up to near the 70 degree mark for the
entire CWA. Breezy winds will accompany it and fairly clear skies
due to drier air will lead to low humidities with this wind. See
Fire Weather Discussion.

A frontal system will approach the area on Tuesday, but ahead of
that front will be a strong 500H oriented southwest to northeast
with an 850H thermal ridge over the eastern Panhandles and OK
area. This will allow for very warm temperatures on Tuesday with
some of the southeast counties possibly toying with 80 degrees for
their highs, low to mid 70s expected elsewhere. Winds will be of
great concern on Tuesday as a High Wind Watch has been issued for
the southern Texas Panhandle counties. Expect daytime mixing to
mix as high as 10-15kft. This deep boundary-layer mixing combined
with deep cyclogenesis from the upper level trough approaching
supports strong southwest winds that could be sustained 30-40 mph
and gusts up to 65 mph. Again minimum humidities will be below 20
percent, so this will make for another Fire Weather Day.

Tuesday night the front will move through and then winds will
shift out of the north bringing in cooler air with overnight lows
in the mid to upper 20s for the OK Panhandle and upper 20s to
near freezing for the TX Panhandle. A surface low just east of the
Panhandles will tighten up and aid in stronger north winds to
accompany the cold air advection from the frontal system on
Wednesday. Highs will only be in the 50s but the air will be very
dry and yet again due to winds and low humidities, elevated Fire
Weather could be of concern for the eastern TX/OK counties.

By Thursday the upper level trough should be far enough east that
zonal flow will take place and gradual warming is expected, with
highs trying to reach 60. Expect this to continue through the
weekend with temperatures back into the 70s by Sunday. And surface
winds will be very close to the 15mph range that will keep
elevated Fire Weather in the forecast for quite some time.

No significant precipitation expected for the next 7 days, however
there might be just enough moisture with Tuesdays frontal system
for a brief sprinkle or shower across the Panhandles.


Elevated to critical Fire Weather conditions expected Monday and
some areas might see very critical conditions on Tuesday. Winds
will be 20 to 25 mph with Humidities around 15 percent, mainly
over the western portions of the CWA and for that a Fire Weather
Watch is in effect for Monday afternoon.

Tuesday will be another story, as we have the winds covered pretty
well, yet the afternoon humidities are still up for debate. Right
now the southeast portion of the TX Panhandle look to be the most
critical. The southwest isn`t far behind. They may be a few
percent higher than the east but the winds are expected to be just
as strong if not stronger. And with winds sustained 30 to 40 mph,
any fires that start are not going to have trouble spreading.

A cold front on Tuesday night will shift flow out of the north.
And although it will be a cooler day, it`s still expected to be
quite dry, so yet again we could see elevated Fire Weather
conditions this Wednesday with northerly winds in play.

Will continue to monitor the extended, but guidance has a warming
and continued drying trend, with winds right around the elevated
criteria for Fire Weather.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...
     Collingsworth...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Donley...Gray...

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for the following zones: Dallam...Deaf Smith...Hartley...

     High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
     the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...
     Deaf Smith...Donley...Gray...Oldham...Potter...Randall...

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening
     for the following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.



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