Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 231133 CCA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
633 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

CORRECTED TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM INFORMATION

.AVIATION...
For the 12z TAFs...
Widespread stratus across forecast area being detected at this
time by satellite.  Expect to see LIFR ceilings with IFR
visibilities through around 15z at AMA and DHT, with only
occasional MVFR ceilings and visibilities at GUY through 15z.
Gradual improvement at AMA and DHT expected between 15z and 18z.
All terminals expected to return to VFR conditions by 18z with
good flying weather continuing well into Wednesday evening.
Expect to see another round of early morning ceilings and
visibilities at AMA and DHT develop before sunrise Thursday, as
post-frontal surface ridge extends southwest into Panhandles.
Threat for isolated thunderstorms today confined to southern and
western parts of forecast area, with likelihood of a direct impact at
any of the terminals too low to include in forecasts at this time.

Cockrell

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 411 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
An upper high over northern Mexico and the southern Rockies will
continue to provide the Panhandles with a northwest upper flow
pattern through the end of the week and into the weekend. A
shortwave trough will exit the forecast area this morning and may
allow for some drying later today and tonight as subsidence
prevails behind the departing upper trough. Another shortwave
trough is then forecast to approach the Panhandles by late
Thursday and bring additional chances for convection Thursday and
Thursday night. This shortwave trough will track slowly east
across the forecast area Friday night and Saturday allowing for
the chances for convection to continue into the weekend. A surface
ridge will build into the Panhandles through the weekend
maintaining a cool and moist upslope surface flow.

The upper high over northern Mexico and southern Rockies is
forecast to build over the Great Basin region by the weekend which
will result in the upper flow becoming more northerly. Compounding
this will be the remnants of the tropical system Harvey in the
Gulf which will cause the upper flow to transition to more
northerly and also allow for subsidence to spread north and west
into the Panhandles. As a result, should see decrease in
convection chances especially by late in the weekend and the
first half of next week. Drier and more seasonable conditions are
expected by Sunday night and Monday and continuing through
Tuesday. Northwesterly flow aloft could return to the Panhandles
by the middle of next week and bring convection chances once again
to the forecast area.

Schneider

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                80  63  81  63  80 /  20  20  30  60  50
Beaver OK                  86  62  87  65  84 /   5   5  20  40  40
Boise City OK              81  62  78  61  82 /  20  20  50  50  30
Borger TX                  83  66  83  66  82 /  20  10  30  60  40
Boys Ranch TX              82  65  82  64  84 /  20  20  40  70  40
Canyon TX                  80  63  81  63  81 /  30  20  30  70  50
Clarendon TX               80  65  81  65  80 /  30  10  30  50  40
Dalhart TX                 81  64  80  62  82 /  20  20  50  70  30
Guymon OK                  84  64  83  64  83 /  10  10  30  40  40
Hereford TX                80  64  81  63  81 /  20  20  50  70  50
Lipscomb TX                84  63  85  66  82 /   5   5  20  30  40
Pampa TX                   81  64  82  64  80 /  20   5  30  50  40
Shamrock TX                82  65  84  66  80 /  20  10  20  40  40
Wellington TX              83  67  84  67  81 /  30  10  20  40  40

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

03/11



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