Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 242343
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
643 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.AVIATION...
Uncertainty abounds with this forecast.  In the very near term, GUY
and DHT will have greatest likelihood of a direct impact from a
thunderstorm, based on current radar trends.  Will monitor all
convective developments closely and amend as necessary.  Other issue
is timing of frontal passage.  Will assume that surface winds at DHT
remain northeast and north tonight, with wind shift to north forecast
to occur at GUY around 06z.  Light rain showers forecast for all
terminals after 06z with the possibility of thunder addressed.

Have forecast MVFR ceilings at GUY before sunrise.  Timing of
development and dissipation of same is also uncertain.

Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible at all
terminals as cold front moves farther south.

Cockrell

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 323 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Tricky forecast over the next several days. The cold front that was
expected to push into the Panhandles is hung up over the Oklahoma
Panhandle and far northwest Texas Panhandle. The NAM is the only
model that pushes it further south, while all other models do not. It
is a reasonable scenario that the front will be held up as the short
wave moving in from New Mexico is not as strong and the upper ridge
to our east remains in place. For tonight, there are two focus
areas, one in the northwest near the frontal boundary and a second in
the southeast where a good moisture plume could produce some lift and
a marginal potential for severe weather. Otherwise, will blanket the
region with chance pops due to uncertainty in location and progress
of thunderstorms from west and south. Expect a repeat for decent
chances of moisture again on Thursday evening and night.

Appears we`ll have a reduction in shower and thunderstorm chances for
Friday, but the remainder of the weekend and into early next week
still look to be on the wetter side. Pacific moisture plume riding
along the western edge of the upper high will persist and model
soundings continue to indicate precipitable water values near the one
inch mark. A weak upper ridge is forecast to develop towards the
middle of next week allowing for drier air and warmer temperatures.

Garcia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                62  82  62  83  64 /  50  50  50  20  10
Beaver OK                  63  87  64  86  66 /  50  40  50  30  20
Boise City OK              57  79  60  81  61 /  60  40  40  30  30
Borger TX                  64  86  64  86  66 /  50  50  50  20  10
Boys Ranch TX              61  84  62  86  63 /  50  40  50  20  20
Canyon TX                  62  83  62  85  63 /  50  40  50  20  10
Clarendon TX               64  87  64  87  66 /  60  50  50  20  10
Dalhart TX                 60  82  61  84  62 /  60  40  50  20  20
Guymon OK                  62  84  63  85  65 /  50  40  40  20  20
Hereford TX                61  82  61  86  63 /  50  40  50  20  10
Lipscomb TX                66  89  64  86  67 /  50  50  50  20  10
Pampa TX                   63  82  63  85  65 /  50  50  50  20  10
Shamrock TX                66  90  65  88  68 /  60  50  40  10  10
Wellington TX              67  92  67  90  69 /  60  40  30  10  10

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

03/10


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