Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 020250
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
850 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...WARM AIR AND LOW SURFACE PRESSURES OVER NV WILL
LIFT OVER SW IDAHO RESULTING IN AROUND 10 DEGREES OF WARMING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRE-FRONTAL GUSTY SW WINDS TO 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS JORDAN VALLEY. GUSTY SW TO W
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM MOUNTAIN HOME STARTING AROUND 2
AM...THROUGH THE WEST MAGIC VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS IS DUE TO
INCREASING WINDS AROUND A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MINOR UPDATE
FOR WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH HALF OF HARNEY COUNTY
THROUGH JORDAN VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE
WINDS THROUGH 21Z BECOMING WESTERLY 5-15KT AFTER 15Z. WINDS ALOFT
AT 10K FEET MSL...WSW 15-25KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE ON A WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST OREGON EARLY TUESDAY EVENING AND
SOUTHWEST IDAHO TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN EXIT TO THE EAST BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT...BUT UNLIKE THE LAST COLD FROPA WHICH HAD THE SUPPORT OF
CONVECTION...THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH LESS POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS. A VERY DRY AND MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY FOR 10-15 DEGREES LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES. BREEZY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE UPPER TREASURE AND WESTERN MAGIC
VALLEYS WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS AGREE THAT
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA. THURSDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING STARTING FRIDAY WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT COOLER AIR FROM WESTERN CANADA
WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER OUR AREA. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...VM
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...BW
PREV LONG TERM....JT/WH



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