Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 312100

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
300 PM MDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday...Heat builds on Wednesday
warming temperatures 8-10 degrees from today/s highs. Moisture
and a weak disturbance embedded in the flow will deliver a slight
chance afternoon showers and thunderstorms in the mountains of
east-central Oregon, north and west of Baker City, and the west-
central Idaho mountains north of McCall. A trailing short wave
trough on Thursday flattens the flow aloft and pushes a weak
front into region. The result will be greater cloud cover and
slightly cooler temperatures (about 5 degrees) north of the front,
which stalls across southern Harney and Malheur counties and
lower Snake River Plain. Areas south of the front, to include the
Western Magic Valley will see little change in conditions on

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through Tuesday...A strong upper level
ridge over the Intermountain Region will keep temperatures 10 to 20
degrees above normal. The ridge will reach its peak amplitude on
Saturday, but Sunday is expected to be the warmest day, as the
surface thermal trough centers on our area, and record highs are
possible. The ridge will lose much of its amplitude Monday and
Tuesday as a weak upper level trough from off the central California
coast moves over Nevada. The trough will bring increasing moisture,
but time-height cross sections show that it will stay above 400 mb
through the weekend, too high for convective development. Mid-level
moisture does not appear over our area until Sunday evening at the
earliest. Both the GFS and ECMWF show modest CAPE over the higher
terrain starting late Sunday, but buffer soundings indicate any
thunderstorms will be high-based. So chances of measurable
precipitation will be low.


.AVIATION...VFR. A few high clouds. Surface winds: variable less
than 10 kts through Wednesday morning, then mainly southwest 5-15
kts Wednesday afternoon. Winds aloft: northwest 10-15 kts up to 10k
ft msl.





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