Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 291539
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
939 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...A THUNDERSTORM OCCURRED IN PAYETTE COUNTY/ID AROUND
SUNRISE WITH KCBX RADAR STILL SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN PAYETTE...
WASHINGTON...AND ADAMS COUNTIES AT 9 AM.  THE AREA OF SHOWERS WAS
MOVING EAST BUT THE SHOWERS THEMSELVES WERE MOVING NNE.  THIS
ACTIVITY WAS NOT WITH THE COLD FRONT.  THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATER.
LATEST ESTIMATE HAS IT PASSING THROUGH ERN OREGON THIS AFTERNOON...
THE IDAHO TREASURE VALLEY 6-8 PM MDT...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO 10
PM TO MIDNIGHT.  FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AND
COOLING...WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND
IT...ESPECIALLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE.  CLOUDS AND LINGERING WINDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS MILD OVERNIGHT BUT SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY
IN ALL AREAS.  A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL STAY OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S.
ALL NEXT WEEK KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.   A REINFORCEMENT OF THE
TROUGH IS SEEN ABOUT NEXT FRIDAY WHICH WOULD LOWER TEMPS EVEN MORE.
NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. WILDFIRE SMOKE NORTH OF KBNO-KMYL. SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY 10-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT...EXCEPT GUSTS TO
40KT THIS AFTERNOON IN SE OREGON. FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED BTWN
21Z/SAT-06Z/SUN. ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED NORTH OF KLKV-KREO-KAWH
LINE. WINDS ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...SW 45-60KT IN OREGON AND SW 20-
45KT IN IDAHO THIS MORNING BECOMING SW 25-35KT BY 06Z/SUN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UNUSUALLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET ACROSS OREGON THIS MORNING WILL LIFT TOWARDS THE ID PANHANDLE
THIS EVENING...CENTERED WEST OF OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH SE OREGON THEN FAR SW IDAHO LATER TODAY. THESE FEATURES
WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS SE OREGON TODAY...BREEZY SOUTH
TO SW FLOW THROUGH THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/WEISER BASIN LATER
TODAY...AND SW TO WEST FLOW ACROSS THE TREASURE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE JET WILL ALSO LIFT MOISTURE N ACROSS CENTRAL IDAHO
THIS MORNING FOR LOW POPS. MOISTURE ACROSS THE SIERRA NV AND
OREGON WILL INCREASE WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW WILL FORM ON THE FRONT ACROSS
S-CENTRAL IDAHO THIS AFTERNOON SO JUST GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH FOR THE
MAGIC VALLEY AREA...EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. BY THIS EVENING
EXPECT THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FRONT TO STRENGTHEN AND
THE SURFACE LOW TO FOCUS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS /WITH GUSTY WINDS/ ACROSS IDAHO ZONES.

MILD TONIGHT AS CLOUDS CONTINUE AND WINDS SLOWLY WEAKEN. THEN AN
UPPER IMPULSE /WITHIN THE BROAD WESTERN UPPER TROUGH/ WILL DIG
THROUGH THE PACNW SUNDAY AND BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE NORTHERN TIER ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM UP TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE MAGIC VALLEY
TODAY...TO AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY ACROSS BAKER AND
HARNEY COUNTIES. LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY BUT SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES...SO PATCHY SMOKE IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA
FROM THE GRANT/BAKER COUNTY BORDER TO ADAMS/VALLEY COUNTIES
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ON MONDAY WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST. THIS TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS IT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY
INLAND. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL IDAHO. MODELS SHOW ONLY
MARGINAL INSTABILITY...SO THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. LOWS WILL
AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....KA
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JT


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