Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 251602

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
1002 AM MDT MON JUL 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...A dry shortwave is moving across the region today,
with little impacts to the sensible weather other than increasing
winds aloft and warming temperatures, and cumulus build ups over
the central Idaho mountains this afternoon. Temperatures on track
to reach 100F in the lower valleys today. Smoke layers and haze
will continue to impact the region from area wildfires. Another
shortwave will move through the region on Tuesday afternoon,
coupled with surface heating, will provide a slight chance of
thunderstorms mainly north and east of McCall. No updates to the


.AVIATION...VFR with mostly clear skies. Smoke layers from a
wildfire in the Lowman area. Surface winds variable 10 kts or
less. Winds aloft through 10k ft msl west to northwest around
10 kts.


SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...Hot and dry conditions will
continue through the short term with dry southwest flow aloft. A
weak short wave will dampen as it moves in Tuesday, but it will
not bring many changes. Temperatures will cool a few degrees in
western Baker and Harney Counties, but that`s about all. Low
elevation temperatures will be +- a few degrees of 100 both today
and tomorrow, which will be 7-10 degrees above normal. Overnight
lows tonight will be around 5 degrees above normal. Haines values
are still expected to be high in fire weather zone 421 this
afternoon. The Pioneer fire has remained active this morning, and
smoke from that fire will continue to be an issue in southwest

LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Sunday...High Pressure will
remain centered over the southwestern states through Wednesday
before expanding northward Thursday. The ridge reaches peak
amplitude on Saturday which looks to be the warmest day of the
period. Warm and dry conditions will prevail through Friday under
west-northwesterly flow aloft. Still a lot of uncertainty remains
with monsoonal moisture pushing north Saturday and Sunday. Winds
aloft over the region remain west-northwest over the weekend which
should keep this moisture to our south. Models continue to show
moisture along the Nevada border Saturday and into South-Central
Idaho though it is much less in the 00z/06z runs. Added a slight
chance of thunderstorms along the Nevada border in the higher
terrain on Saturday. Temperatures will be about 5-10 degrees above
normal with daytime highs in the upper 90s to 100F in the lower
valleys. An upper level trough moves through the region Saturday
night which will help weaken the ridge and drop temperatures back
to normal by Sunday.





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