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000
FXUS65 KBOI 161527
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
927 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...WE WILL LOWER POP FOR TODAY LEAVING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ONLY IN NRN-MOST MOUNTAIN ZONES.  UPPER RIDGE
STILL OUT IN THE PACIFIC 130W WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EAST AND OVER OUR
CWA BY NOON THURSDAY BRINGING IN MUCH WARMER AIR.  NEXT COLD FRONT
UPSTREAM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND COOLING LATE THU NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING...FRIDAY WILL COOL BACK DOWN TO TODAY/S TEMPS.  POPS FOR THE
COLD FRONT WILL BE ADJUSTED HIGHER IN SRN ZONES FOR THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE.  SUNDAY LOOKS A LITTLE COOLER THAN BEFORE BASED ON FLATTER
RIDGING ALOFT...BUT STILL 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MAINLY 18Z-00Z. SURFACE
WINDS...SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
ALOFT...NORTHWEST UP TO 25 KTS AT 10K FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CLOUD MASS OVER EAST OREGON
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS SE OREGON. MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
INTERACT WITH IDAHO MOUNTAINS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
TODAY AS WELL. AHEAD OF THE FEATURE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM NE-SE
THIS MORNING TO SW-W THIS AFTERNOON AS IT TRAVERSES THE AREA. AS
THE CLOUD MASS SHIFTS INTO SW IDAHO THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME LIFT
FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL DROP TOWARDS THE AREA...SO
WILL HOLD ON TO ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON OVER IDAHO
MOUNTAINS. BY EARLY THIS EVENING THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER NE
OREGON AND THEN IT WILL QUICKLY EXIT CENTRAL IDAHO AROUND MIDNIGHT.
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS...UNTIL
A SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO SE OREGON LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CALIBRATED
SREF THUNDERSTORM AND 00Z/06Z NAM HINT AT A SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN MALHEUR COUNTY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. 21Z-03Z NAM 0-3KM
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE HAS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG ACROSS THE SRN AREAS.
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL SEE HOW
MODELS EVOLVE. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN LOWER
ELEVATIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PROGRESSIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR
LIKELY POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND CHANCE POPS OVER THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  DECREASING POPS FRIDAY NIGHT THEN DRY CONDITIONS
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
REGION.  SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE
TRENDED OF DEVELOPING A LONG WAVE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WITH A
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  BUT MODELS
STILL NOT CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ALSO DIFFER ON HOW FAST IT WILL MOVE TO THE EAST.  WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS WILL TREND POPS TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH
CHANCE POPS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER LOWER
ELEVATIONS.  THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...BUT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK
FOR IDAHO FOR THE 2014 WATER YEAR PROJECTS NEAR AVERAGE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE RUNOFF VOLUMES FOR THE PANHANDLE REGION...THE
CLEARWATER...SALMON...AND PAYETTE RIVER AREAS...AS WELL AS THE
UPPER SNAKE RIVER. ELSEWHERE... THE OUTLOOK IS NOT AS
PROMISING...WITH BELOW AVERAGE RUNOFF VOLUMES EXPECTED. PORTIONS
OF THE MAGIC VALLEY...AND SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO BASINS
NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER HAVE BEEN THE DRIEST...WITH WATER SUPPLY
FORECASTS INDICATING AROUND 50 PERCENT OR LESS OF NORMAL RUNOFF.
FORECASTS ON THE SNAKE RIVER BELOW AMERICAN FALLS DAM INDICATE
ABOUT 60 TO 70 PERCENT OF NORMAL RUNOFF VOLUMES. PLEASE SEE
BOIESFBOI FGUS75KBOI FOR DETAILS OF THE LATEST STATE OF IDAHO
SPRING FLOOD AND WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK...ISSUED APRIL 15 2014.

THE OREGON WATER SUPPLY FOR THE SPRING AND SUMMER IS FORECAST TO BE
BELOW-NORMAL FOR MOST OF OREGON...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND EAST-
CENTRAL BASINS. DETAILS FOR OREGON CAN BE FOUND IN PDXESFPQR
FGUS76KPQR.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....JA
HYDROLOGY...VM