Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 310330
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
830 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT EXCEPT FEWER HIGH
CLOUDS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL IDAHO.  LIGHT WINDS AND ONLY LIMITED LOW
LEVEL MIXING AND/OR DRYING TODAY WILL AGAIN ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO
FORM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...BUT PINPOINTING
EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN IS DIFFICULT.  AREAL EXTENT...HOWEVER...
SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AS ALREADY FORECAST.  ON THE LARGER
SCALE LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE WRN U.S. AND ERN PACIFIC.
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH IT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND
SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  MORE PCPN MID-WEEK AS WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ADVECTS PACIFIC MOISTURE INLAND...ALSO ALREADY IN FORECAST.
NO UPDATES FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG AND STRATUS BELOW 4500 FT MSL
06Z-18Z IN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...AND
EASTERN OREGON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS...VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KTS. WINDS ALOFT...NORTH 10-20 KTS UP THROUGH 10K FT MSL.

OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY...LATE NIGHT AND MORNING VALLEY FOG AND STRATUS
WILL DISSIPATE BY AROUND 18Z. INCREASING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WILL
LEAD TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND THE WEST
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR
4500 FT MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...STRATUS IS FOUND IN MUCH OF
SRN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES AND ALSO OWYHEE COUNTY. THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY HAS ITS SHARE AS WELL. THIS WILL CONTINUE
RECEDING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE EXPANDING AGAIN
OVERNIGHT. MODELS INDICATE MORE DRYING TOMORROW AFTERNOON THAN
TODAY...SO WE ARE FORECASTING LESS STRATUS SAT AFTERNOON. ALOFT...
WE ARE IN THE COL AT THE NRN EDGE OF A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR
LAS VEGAS. AS THIS LOW MOVES SOUTH AND THEN EAST...NW FLOW WILL
BUILD INTO THE PAC NW. THERE IS AN ABOVE-AVERAGE AMOUNT OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IN THIS FLOW...WHICH MEANS WE WILL SEE MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE...AND A WEAK
SYSTEM...MOVE OVER THE RIDGE ON SUNDAY THAT WE HAVE MAINTAINED
POPS IN THE NRN PART OF THE CWA...AND ALSO MUCH OF SE OREGON...FOR
SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...GUSTING 15 TO 20
MPH IN THE UPPER TREASURE VALLEY.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE REGION AS A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS MOVES EAST OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING A MOIST WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR A
CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
BUT WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MODELS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD THE RIDGE REDEVELOPING ALONG THE WEST COST AS LOW
PRESSURE DIGS SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREE ON THE WEATHER PATTERN BUT DIFFER ON TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW WILL TREND POPS TOWARDS
CLIMATOLOGY AND MAKE CHANGES WHEN CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JT
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....JA/DD


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