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000
FXUS65 KBOI 090424
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
924 PM MST SUN DEC 8 2013

.DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY ON THEIR WAY DOWN AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH WELL BELOW ZERO OBSERVATIONS IN SE OREGON AT 04Z /A
NOTICEABLE AREA ON THE IR SATELLITE PICS OVER HARNEY COUNTY/. IN
SW IDAHO MANY LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. DEW POINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER ACROSS SE OREGON SO
DON/T EXPECT TEMPERATURES QUITE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT BUT 20 TO
25 BELOW ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF HARNEY COUNTY BY
MONDAY MORNING. AS COLD OR COLDER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT ACROSS
SW IDAHO AS ALL LOCATIONS WILL GET BELOW ZERO. WINDS STAY UP
ENOUGH ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER TO WARRANT A
WIND CHILL WARNING FOR TONIGHT AND THE ADDITION OF THE CAMAS
PRAIRIE FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 40 BELOW. THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY IS BORDERLINE...AS LOCALLY WIND CHILLS WILL
REACH 20 BELOW ZERO TOWARDS SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. HELD OFF ON
THE WARNING FOR NOW AS DON/T THINK WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT MEET
CRITERIA. UPDATE WILL BE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES IN SPOTS AND
DECREASE WINDS IN S-CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH 12Z. INCREASING
MVFR/LOW-VFR CLOUDS FROM THE NORTH AFTER 12Z. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
- GENERALLY 12 KTS OR LESS THROUGH 15Z. NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL
AVERAGE 40 KTS AT 10K FT MSL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...WEAK WAVE IN NORTHERLY FLOW BRINGS SOME CLOUDS
THROUGH OUR THIS EVENING THEN CLEARING AND ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT
..THIS TIME COLDEST IN IDAHO MOUNTAIN AREAS. WIND CHILL WILL REACH
-35F IN SOUTHERN IDAHO HIGHLANDS AND -40F IN THE CAMAS PRAIRIE.
NOT QUITE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT IN OREGON.  ANOTHER WAVE IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO IDAHO MOUNTAINS
MONDAY...WITH CLOUDINESS ELSEWHERE.  CLOUDS WILL MODERATE LOW TEMPS
MONDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER WEAK WAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS TO IDAHO MOUNTAINS AGAIN TUESDAY.  A LITTLE MILDER AGAIN
TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT CHANGES FROM STRAIGHT NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY.
NO SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WINDS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHIFTS INLAND ON
WEDNESDAY. CONCERN HAS BEEN AN INVERSION SETTING UP KEEP THE COLD
AIR TRAPPED. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING
THIS ISN/T GOING TO BE THE CASE AS THE UPPER RIDGE/INVERSION WILL
SIMPLY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE COLD AIR TRAPPED. CLOUD
COVER WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
TUESDAY. INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING TROUGH
FOR FRIDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPS IN THE VALLEY TO WARM INTO THE LOWER
30S WEDNESDAY...WARM ENOUGH FOR THE SNOW TO START MELTING. BY
THURSDAY...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KTS WHICH WILL ALLOW
PLENTY OF MIXING AND THE REMOVAL OF SNOW COVER IN THE WESTERN
SNAKE RIVER PLAIN. MODEL ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK TROUGH
MOVING TROUGH ON FRIDAY. NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH BUT HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE MOVES
INLAND SATURDAY BUT WILL WEAKEN BY SUNDAY AS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW
SETS UP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES STEADILY CLIMB ABOVE
FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY REACHING NORMAL BY SATURDAY.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...WIND CHILL WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST MONDAY IDZ015-030.
     WIND CHILL WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM MST MONDAY IDZ028.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....MT
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....JDS/WH