Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 230318
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
918 PM MDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE...JUST WANTED TO ADD THAT WE ARE DROPPING THE
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR
FLOODING RAIN IN THE WATCH AREA HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

VERY ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. LARGE HAIL WAS REPORTED IN OR NEAR
FAIRFIELD...JEROME...AND TWIN FALLS...AND CERTAINLY OCCURRED AT MANY
POINTS IN-BETWEEN. AS OF 830 PM MDT...WEAKENING STORMS WERE MOVING
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS TWIN FALLS AND JEROME COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS INTO SE
IDAHO. POPS AND ASSOCIATED GRIDS WILL BE ADJUSTED TO OUR LATEST
EXPECTATIONS AND AN UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED MVFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND BAKER COUNTY OREGON THROUGH 12Z. STORMS
MAY PRODUCE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS. SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE W/NW...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL AVERAGE 15 KTS THROUGH
10K FT MSL. EXPECT SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MTNS AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER NE OREGON WILL DIG ACROSS SW IDAHO DUE TO A 100-130KT JET
STREAM LEVEL SPEED MAX ON ITS W FLANK OVER OREGON. STRONG MID
LEVELS WINDS THERE ARE BRINGING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH ACROSS
BAKER COUNTY. AS THE LOW SHIFTS OVER SW IDAHO EXPECT 15-25 MPH NW
WINDS ACROSS SE OREGON AS WELL AS THE WEST END OF THE TREASURE
VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE UPPER WEISER BASIN. THIS WIND PATTERN WILL
SETTLE OVER THE AREA AGAIN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR A FALL-LIKE
DAY.

THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVY RAIN AND LOCAL
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL IDAHO ZONES WHILE
FASTER STORM MOVEMENT...SHEAR TO 30 KTS AND 500-100 J/KG
BUOYANCY ACROSS THE SRN ZONES CONTINUE A HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG WIND GUST THREAT. FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS
CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH 6Z MIDNIGHT MDT.

COOL NW FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
LITTLE MOISTURE ACROSS MAINLY THE WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MODELS RESULTED IN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST THEN EITHER.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL PROVIDE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR
MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...THE WARMING TREND WILL COME TO A
HALT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE GETS ERODED OUT OF OUR AREA BY
FRIDAY. LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL ENSUE BRINGING OUR AREA BACK INTO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RANGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....MT
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....KA/AB



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