700
FXUS65 KBOI 140310
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
910 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.DISCUSSION...A few cumulus clouds are present across the area
this evening, especially over southeast Oregon, as mid-level
moisture gradually increases. A few thunderstorms developed
earlier across northwest Nevada and south-central Oregon,
associated with a weak shortwave moving through the Sierra
Nevada Mountains. Despite a few new fire starts observed on
satellite, smoke remains limited across the area. The largest of
these new fires is the Coyote Fire, located about 18 miles
south of Jordan Valley.

Hot temperatures will persist on Monday, with lower elevation
highs reaching around 100 degrees once again. Overnight lows
tonight will remain warm, cooling only to around 70 degrees
across lower elevations. The Lower Treasure Valley continues to
be the hottest area, with temperatures expected to reach up to
104 degrees. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the Lower
Treasure Valley through 9 PM MDT (8 PM PDT).

As mentioned, the mid-level moisture associated with the weak
shortwave will linger near the Nevada border by Monday
afternoon. This will bring a 10 to 15 percent chance of
thunderstorms across the higher terrain near the Nevada border.
A few high-based thunderstorms are possible, and may produce
outflow wind gusts up to 50 miles per hour.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Localized smoke near wildfires. High density
altitude during afternoon hours due to hot temperatures.
Isolated thunderstorms near the Nevada border Monday afternoon.
Surface winds: light and variable tonight, becoming NW 5-15 kt
Monday morning, increasing to 10-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt
Monday afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: NW around 15 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: light and variable tonight, then NW
7-12 kt with gusts to 20 kt Monday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Tuesday night...Hot temperature
are still on tap today and Monday with lower elevation high
temperatures reaching around 100 degrees both days. In addition
to the hot daytime highs, the overnight lows tonight will
remain on the warm side, cooling to around 70 degrees across
lower elevations. The Lower Treasure Valley still is looking to
be the hottest with temperatures up reaching up to 104. All of
that being said... The heat advisory continues for the Lower
Treasure Valley until 9pm MDT (8pm PDT). Monday afternoon, some
mid-level pacific moisture will set up near the NV border. This
leads to a slight chance of showers (15-20%) and thunderstorms
(10-15%) across the higher terrain near the NV border.
Thunderstorms that develop will be high based and limited to the
higher terrain.

A dry cold front will cross our area overnight Monday, ahead of
a trough digging down from British Columbia. Gradient winds
increase ahead of this front, with gusts to 25-30MPH expected
for the western Magic Valley. Winds remain gusty on Tuesday with
temperatures dropping to near normal following the frontal
passage. Tuesday afternoon, the trough digging down from
British Columbia will graze over our area. This leads to a
slight chance of showers (15-25%) and thunderstorms (10-20%)
over northeastern Valley county and southern Twin Falls county.
Hazards associated with storms that develop are lightning and
localized wind gusts.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...Dry northwest flow aloft
sets in across our area on Wednesday. This helps maintain near
normal temperatures for the mid-week. While deterministic models
diverge on solutions beyond Wednesday, model ensemble are in
general agreement of a ridge building in over the Great
Basin/Four Corners. Climatologically, the ensemble solutions
make sense for mid-July. While we stay on the northern periphery
of this ridge, temperatures warm to 5-10 degrees normal by
Friday as it builds. Chances of precipitation remain under 15%
area-wide through Friday. Uncertainty remains regarding whether
or not our area will get pushes of monsoonal moisture out of
this pattern.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Monday IDZ012.
     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday
     evening IDZ424-426.
OR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT /8 PM PDT/ Monday ORZ064.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....JDS
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM....NF