Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 220950

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
350 AM MDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...Morning satellite pics
showing a well defined upper level low centered north of the
Treasure Valley. The circulation is expected to drift
southwestward into Malheur county by midday with precipitation
development focusing to the north and west of the low center. By
afternoon, instability will further increase shower development
over higher terrain of southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho. A
surface low over eastern ID will continue to drive a northwest
wind, with the strongest winds along I-84 corridor from Baker
county into the Western Magic Valley. Similar to yesterday, high
temperatures today will run about 20 degrees below normal (closer
to normal highs for early November). Drier conditions develop
tonight into Saturday as the upper low fills in and gradually
moves eastward. Other than isolated showers over the far eastern
Boise mountains, Saturday is dry with high temperatures warming
3-6 degrees from today.

.LONG TERM...Saturday night through Thursday...Models all move the
upper level trough east of our area Saturday night and Sunday, and
by Monday the Intermountain Region will be under northerly flow
aloft between the trough and an offshore upper level ridge. This
pattern will provide dry and slightly warmer weather, but
temperatures will still be 5 to 10 below normal. The warming trend
will continue Tuesday and Wednesday as the ridge moves inland, and
by Thursday temperatures will be close to normal.


.AVIATION...Mostly VFR. Expect scattered to numerous showers over
the Idaho mountains through this evening, with areas of terrain
obscuration and local MVFR/IFR conditions in the mountain valleys.
Showers will be isolated at lower elevations of southwest Idaho and
eastern Oregon. Snow levels 5500-6000 feet MSL. Surface winds
northwest 5-15 kts. Winds aloft near 10k feet MSL variable 5-15 kts.

weekend outlook...VFR. Isolated showers over the central Idaho
mountains through Saturday evening. Mostly clear skies on Sunday.





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