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000
FXUS65 KBOI 231539
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
939 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
IT ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO AREAS NORTH OF THE TREASURE VALLEY
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN LOW AND ONLY RISE TO AROUND 4000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING MCCALL. THERE IS A MINIMAL CHANCE
OF SHOWERS TODAY GENERALLY SOUTH OF A BURNS-BOISE-FAIRFIELD LINE.
FORECAST IS ON TRACK...NO UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTH OF A KBNO-KBOI-KSUN LINE SCATTERED MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN SNOW ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. SOUTH OF THE
KBNO-KBOI-KSUN LINE VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
LEVEL CEILINGS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING BECOMING
SOUTH TO WEST 5-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL GUSTS NEAR 25
KNOTS. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 30 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K
FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH NRN ZONES TODAY
WITH MORE LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...THEN A STRONGER PACIFIC
TROUGH WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PCPN INLAND IN A WARM-ADVECTION PATTERN
THURSDAY...SNOW LEVEL RISING TO 6500 FEET MSL NORTH TO 7500 FEET
SOUTH LATE THURSDAY.  WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG WSWLY FLOW ALOFT AND
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX WE CONTINUE TO FORECAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE IDAHO SIDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY
WSWLY WINDS TODAY IN THE CENTRAL SNAKE BASIN...ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO
MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS...DECREASING TONIGHT...THEN GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALL THE MODELS
CONTINUE THE COOL AND WET PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND THAT THEY HAVE
BEEN ADVERTISING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. ONLY CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WERE TO INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
ALONG WITH ADDING SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS ALL THE IDAHO ZONES DUE TO EXITING JET TO THE NORTH ACROSS
BAKER AND VALLEY COUNTIES...ALONG WITH A SECONDARY JET MOVING
NORTHWARD FROM NEVADA INTO IDAHO. SREF SHOWING 10-20 PROBS OF
THUNDER ACROSS THIS SAME AREA WITH SMALL PROBS OF 100-200 CAPE.

ECM AND GFS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGING BY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE AMPLIFIES INTO THE WEST
COAST AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST AREA. DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED AT THAT TIME.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....CR