Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 090032 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
632 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PASSING HIGH CIRRUS. LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...THE MOST RECENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT A COLD FRONT HAS COMPLETED ITS PASSAGE
THROUGH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST MID-LEVEL FLOW OVERHEAD...AND A FRESH INFLUX
OF DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ENSURE
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE DRY AIR AND
LIGHT OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE LOW TEMPERATURES AT WELL
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A 500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO BACK TO THE
WEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. A CANADIAN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO
SPILL INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW
TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH TX
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN AT
LEAST CLOUD COVER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUOY 42020 REPORTED NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 23 KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 29 KNOTS WITH SEAS
SLIGHTLY OVER 3.5 FEET WITH A PERIOD OF 5 SECONDS AT 13 CST/19 UTC.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT...WITH EVEN BETTER WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS AND PERSISTS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE FROM WED NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
LOWER TEXAS COAST. MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH WINDS THURSDAY SHOULD
DIMINISH FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL TX. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BACK TO THE EAST SATURDAY AS A STRONGER
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

FIRE WEATHER...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EXCEPT ZAPATA COUNTY UNTIL 6
PM CST THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT HAS COMPLETED ITS TRANSITION
THROUGH THE REGION...WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES DECREASING AND WINDS
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...INCREASING THE RISK FOR
WILDFIRE ACTIVITY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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