Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 290856
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
356 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

.SHORT TERM (Now through Friday): The most recent KBRO upper air
sounding from Wednesday evening indicated a precipitable water
content of 2.13 inches, a decrease from 2.47 inches Wednesday
morning. As available atmospheric moisture continues to decline
while elongated 500 mb troughiness over the northwest Gulf of
Mexico retreats to the northeast, convection will be much more
limited today and tonight, confined to the adjacent coastal waters
and/or the central and eastern inland portions of the BRO CWFA.
The short term portion of the forecast will be convection-free
beginning on Friday as 500 mb high pressure resumes control. With
limited rain chances and cloud cover, no reason to believe that
temperatures won`t prevail at above normal levels.

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday): The weakness in the
500mb ridge across the Texas coast Friday will erode Saturday as
the 500mb subtropical ridge across the eastern Gulf of Mexico
builds westward across the western Gulf and south TX. Low to mid
level moisture will be limited across most of the state through
the weekend into early next week. The 500mb ridge across the
northern Gulf coast Monday will dominate the weather across the
western Gulf and south TX through the rest of the forecast period.
Rain chances will be limited through the weekend into next week with
temperatures near normal through Wednesday.
&&

.MARINE (Now through Friday): Buoy 42020 reported south winds around
18 knots gusting to around 19 knots with seas slightly over 4.5 feet
with a period of 6 seconds at 03 CDT/08 UTC. Stronger winds and
higher seas are expected along the Lower Texas Coast during the
forecast period due to high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico
interacting with low pressure that will drop into the panhandle of
Texas. Winds will be strong enough and seas high enough to warrant a
Small Craft Exercise Caution for portions or all of the Lower Texas
coastal waters. Small Craft Advisory is not expected to be needed at
this time.

Friday night through Monday...Moderate to strong southeast winds
will prevail across the coastal waters Fri night into Saturday
with low pressure across west Texas and high pressure across the
northeast Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient will weaken across
the lower TX coast Sunday. Light to moderate southeast winds
should prevail across the western Gulf Sunday through Monday.
Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the lower
Texas coastal waters Fri night through Sat night.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  94  80  93  81 /  20   0   0  10
BROWNSVILLE          96  80  95  80 /  20   0   0  10
HARLINGEN            98  79  97  80 /  20   0   0  10
MCALLEN              99  79  99  80 /  20   0   0  10
RIO GRANDE CITY     102  79 101  80 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   89  81  91  82 /  20  20   0  10
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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