Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 012356 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
656 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...A SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD SO WILL COVER IN SECTIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...THE BIG CONCERN IS THE EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORM
BAND THAT IS EASING THROUGH AND INTO MOISTURE/CAPE/ETC. RICH
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SOUTH TEXAS BRUSH COUNTRY...AND LIKE TO HOLD
TOGETHER TO SOME DEGREE OVER THE RANCHLANDS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
INCLUDING HEBBRONVILLE AND FALFURRIAS. THEREAFTER...QUICK
MESOANALYSIS HAS A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RICHER ENVIRONMENT
OF THE RANCHLANDS AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OF THE RGV. HAVING
SEEN A NUMBER OF NORTHERLY MEAN STORM MOTION EVENTS
OVERACHIEVE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. BOTTOM LINE? I CAN`T RULE OUT THE MENTION OF
THUNDER FOR KHRL AND KMFE. EVEN KBRO COULD GET INTO THE
ACTION...BUT LATER TIMING AND PROXIMITY TO MOST STABLE ENVIRONMENT
SAYS HOLD OFF...FOR NOW.

OBVIOUSLY...SHOULD THE ACTION KEEP CRANKING WELL INTO THE
RANCHLANDS BEFORE SUNSET...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ACTIVITY AT
KHRL/KMFE GOES UP AND WILL AMEND FOR ALL PARAMETERS AS NECESSARY.

AFTER THE STORMS OR WHATEVER`S LEFT FADES OUT...EXPECT RESIDUAL
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND PROBABLY A BETTER SHOT FOR MVFR CEILINGS THAN
CURRENTLY INDICATED...WHICH IS A TEMPO GROUP AROUND/JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE.

FOR SATURDAY...RIO GRANDE VALLEY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RECOVER DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...AND WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXPECT
EVEN A WEAK SEA BREEZE TO ACTIVATE BETWEEN 10 AND 11 AM TOWARD THE
COAST...AND CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR KBRO...UNCERTAINTY
IS STILL ENOUGH TO HOLD MENTION TO VCTS...WITH THUNDER HEARD AND
CUMULONIMBI AROUND BUT NOT NECESSARILY A DIRECT STRIKE. NOT SO FOR
KHRL WHICH TRADITIONALLY TAKES A HIT FROM THE SEA BREEZE
ENHANCEMENT IN THESE SITUATION. KMFE SHOULD HAVE A DECENT SHOT BUT
A BIT LATER...FOR NOW BETWEEN 1 AND 5 PM. PROB30 GROUPS COVER FOR
NOW.

OTHERWISE...LOW END VFR SCATTERED...PERHAPS BROKEN IN A FEW
SPOTS...AND LIGHT WINDS COVER IT ON SATURDAY.
52/BSG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND
WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE IT SHOULD HANG UP FOR THE
NIGHT. AS OF 19Z...CU FIELD STARTING TO DEVELOP AND PROGRESS
SOUTHWARD WITH THIS BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS TO REACH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA LATER IN THE EVENING AS THE FRONT IS MOVING
SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE POPULATED AREAS OF THE LOWER VALLEY THROUGH THE
NIGHT. EARLIER TODAY A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVED INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH SHIFTING WINDS MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST KEEPING A
PARALLEL FLOW ALONG THE COAST LIMITING ANY SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL LIMIT ANY CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ALONG
THE COAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AMPLE
SUN... CONDITIONS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN A BIT TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE
FORWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...AND WITH WINDS OVERALL WEAKENING
AND VEERING TO LIGHT EAST. LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.

SATURDAY...THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA AND WITH
THE DAYTIME INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH HIGH PWATS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL HELP STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA. LEFT THE INHERITED 30
PERCENT FOR TOMORROW. LIGHTER WINDS WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MAY DEVELOP
AND COULD PLAY INTO THE MIX BY PROVIDING A SECOND BOUNDARY TO
INTERACT WITH THE FRONT. RAIN FALL EFFICIENCY COULD BE ENHANCED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IF STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP AND WITH STORM
MOVEMENT IN GENERAL EXPECTED TO BE SLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WERE RESTRAINED A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER OVER THOSE OF TODAY BASED ON
SLIGHTLY MORE GENEROUS CLOUD COVER.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...PATTERN ACROSS THE US
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE BLOCKING
PATTERN FINALLY RELEASES UPSTREAM. THIS WILL ALLOW THE EAST COAST
TROUGH TO WEAKEN AND THE LARGE WESTERN RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE POOL OF MOISTURE REMAINING FROM WHATEVER IS LEFT OF
THE FRONTAL ZONE TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY DRIFT SOUTHWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS WINDS ALOFT SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY. THIS WILL KEEP A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DAYTIME SEABREEZE SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY. SOME DRIER AIR MIXES INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF SEABREEZE CONVECTION BUT NO
COMPLETELY SHUTTING IT DOWN. THE NEXT AGITATOR FOR THE LOCAL
WEATHER WILL BE THE MIDLEVEL LOW SPINNING IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE BEING WRAPPED INTO THE WEAKENING
RIDGE TO THE WEST. THIS WILL PULL ITS INSTABILITY AND DEEPER
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH TEXAS ROUGHLY
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WITH A BETTER SHOT FOR SEABREEZE SHOWERS. THE
TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTS WWD LATE IN THE WEEK PULLING THE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FURTHER INLAND.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW SEAS...AS A LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...BECOMING EAST...AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND HANGS UP. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR MARINE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL MAINLY AFFECT THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE
TONIGHT...BUT MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ON SATURDAY.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...TRANQUIL WINDS AND SEAS WILL BRING GREAT
BOATING WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY STAY 2 FEET OR
LESS...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAINING BELOW 15 KNOTS. THE MAIN
MARINE HAZARD WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY
EACH DAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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