Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 212341 AAA
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service BROWNSVILLE TX
541 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.
&&

.AVIATION...Full VFR is anticpated through the next 24 hours. The
passage of a strong cold front will bring windy conditions, mainly
during the afternoon hours of Sunday.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 305 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017/

SHORT TERM (Now through Sunday Night): Temperature have risen well
into the lower 90s across the Rio Grande Plains this afternoon
thanks to downsloping winds and mixing down of dry air. In
fact...all three climate sites have broken their all-time daily
records. Meanwhile...some gusty winds and low HR values have been
observed across the Northern Ranchlands which will lead to the the
drying out of already cured fuels that will play a part in the fire
weather conditions for tomorrow.

Winds will lay a bit late this afternoon and evening with a brief
switch back to the SSE in tech wake of pre-frontal trough. For
tonight...as strong front will get dragged through Deep South Texas
by a deepening H5 low that is expected to swing across the Red River
Valley and into the ArkLaTex by daybreak. Strong low and mid level
jets of 50+ kts to 70+ kts respectively will surge across the
region. Very dry air is also going to be in place...and with strong
winds mixing down to the surface...have upgraded the Red Flag Watch
to Warning. Additionally...have issued a Wind Advisory for winds of
25-35mph...withs gust to around 45 mph expected. It is possible that
even higher gust may occur. The likely timing for these conditions
will be form late morning to mid/late afternoon...as models have
hinted that the best jet dynamics will be a few hours on with side
of noon. Winds will die off near or just before sunset.

Despite this being a strong cold front...there will not be any
significantly cold air with it. In fact...temperatures will still be
in the 70s to 80s on Sunday...with low only dropping in the Mid 40s
to lower 50s.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday): Monday should be a chamber of
commerce day with sunny skies, light winds and dry, mild weather,
even if with slightly above avg. temperatures in the upper 70s to
lower 80s. The next plains storm system will begin to deepen late
Monday, resulting in local winds switching back to the south and
strengthening Monday night into Tuesday. Overnight low temps in the
50s and 60s will give way to another sunny day and more warm and
still relatively dry weather on Tuesday, this time with high temps
nudging into the 80s across the CWA. Moderate winds should diminish
Tuesday night as a cold front punches into North Texas. The front
will make it to the lower Tex. coast by dawn Wednesday with a switch
to north winds. A few showers may develop over the marine areas as
the front moves offshore, but for the most part it will be a dry
passage. Conditions will again quickly become chamber of commerce
like, with high temps in the 70s, upper 70s Wednesday and lower 70s
Thursday and Friday.  Reinforcing, cooler cP air will arrive Friday
night however, bringing cloudy weather with a chance of rain and
lower temps on Saturday, in the 60s.

MARINE (Now through Sunday Night): Light south winds of around 10
kts and 3 ft seas are occurring at Buoy 42020 this afternoon.
Hazardous marine conditons will develop overnight as a strong cold
front sweep across the Lower Texas Coastal Waters by daybreak.
Strong NW winds will increase through mid morning through early
evening Sunday. Gale warnings remain in effect for expected winds of
25-35kts...with gusts to 45kts. However...it is possible that a few
Storm Force gusts will be possible. Meanwhile...seas will build to
12 to 14 feet. Winds will lessen and seas will begin to relax Sunday
evening...however SCA conditions will continued to be met
overnight.

Monday through Thursday: Light winds and low to moderate seas will
prevail Monday in the wake of the Sunday cold front. By Monday night
south winds will be on the increase, however, as a plains storm
system deepens, with exercise caution conditions possible on the
Gulf. Strong south winds will prevail on Tuesday as inflow to the
plains storm system continues, and seas will build to seven feet.
Small craft advisory conditions will be possible. Winds will switch
to north and northeast and strengthen on Wednesday behind a cold
front, persisting into Thursday. Wave heights will build to between
5 and 8 feet Wednesday through Thursday, necessitating small craft
advisory conditions.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for TXZ248>257.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for TXZ248>257.

GM...Gale Warning from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ130-132-135-150-
     155-170-175.
&&

$$

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