Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 221622
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
922 AM MST Thu Feb 22 2018

.UPDATE...

Another very cold start to the day with all locations below zero
at daybreak with just some slight improvement at this hour. Skies
will be mostly sunny for the first half of the day. High level
clouds will be increasing this afternoon as a cold front drops
into the area. The front will be mainly dry with just a slight
chance for a few snow showers along the Beartooth/Absaroka
Mountains. Temperatures will moderate slightly from yesterday with
most areas in the teens for this afternoon. No updates planned
this morning. Hooley

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tdy and Fri...

A deepening trof to the west of the area will induce divergent
flow over the area today, helping to pull a surface front with
reinforcing cold air into the area this afternoon. Developing
upslope easterly winds behind the front will increase cloud cover
and bring a chance for a few light snow showers to the western
foothills, and a few inches of snow to the mountains.

The ECMWF is going very cold with temperatures this afternoon
wanting to hold in the single digits and low teens due to a
combination of cloud cover locking in overnight cold and a mid
morning frontal arrival. The American model consensus is mid to
upper teens and lower 20s. Split the difference about 60/40 toward
the American models which puts temperatures 3 to 5 degrees cooler
than previous forecast. The aforementioned front is through Cut
Bank so arrival into our area looks to be around noon.

Another cold night tonight with skies clearing late and surface
high sitting over the area. Lows range from zero west to -15
degrees in sheltered river valley locations east.

Upper trof to the west today, slides east into the area Friday.
This will begin to bring gusty westerly winds to the area as
pressures fall along the front range. Gap wind areas will begin to
pick up late in the day with gusts in the 50 to 60 mph range
expected Friday night. Expect some areas of blowing and drifting
snow from Billings west into the foothills and drifting could make
rural travel difficult into Saturday. Probabilities of wind
advisory criteria winds are borderline in the latest guidance for
Livingston, so will hold off on highlites for now. With the
downslope winds increasing temperatures should be on the rise as
well with mid 20s west to upper teens east. Lows Friday night
should be above zero in most locations. Chambers

.LONG TERM...valid for Sat...Sun...Mon...Tue...Wed...

Only made some minor tweaks to the extended. Saturday night into
Sunday models are still in good agreement that a weak shortwave
will cross through Montana bring a chance for some snowfall to
much of the western and central zones. Flow remains out of the
west so temperatures still look to remain near freezing for highs.
Scattered mountain showers remain possible Monday. By Tuesday the
models are still are differing with the evolution of the next West
Coast trough. The ECMWF digs a cutoff low over into the southwest
while the GFS keeps an open wave along the Pacific Northwest. The
GFS brings in a good flow of moisture and decent precip to
Montana. The EC prefers to keep most of southern Montana dry. For
now have chance PoPs across the area, with some cooler
temperatures. Reimer

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect VFR conditions to continue through the forecast. Scattered
mountain showers remain possible along with mountain obscurations.
Reimer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 018 904/023 008/030 012/031 020/032 016/028 012/027
    0/B 10/U    01/B    22/S    22/S    22/S    22/S
LVM 021 903/024 007/029 014/031 024/032 017/030 014/031
    2/J 21/N    14/S    52/S    34/S    32/S    33/S
HDN 018 908/022 002/030 010/030 017/032 013/027 009/026
    0/B 10/B    01/B    22/S    22/S    22/S    22/S
MLS 015 911/015 901/026 007/026 013/028 009/024 005/022
    0/B 00/B    01/B    11/B    12/S    11/B    21/B
4BQ 020 905/019 001/028 008/027 015/031 011/027 008/026
    0/B 00/B    10/B    11/B    11/B    11/B    21/B
BHK 020 907/017 001/025 007/025 013/029 008/024 005/024
    0/U 00/B    10/B    11/B    11/B    11/B    11/B
SHR 020 903/022 902/029 006/030 013/032 011/028 008/028
    0/B 11/B    10/B    22/S    12/S    22/S    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings


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