Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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765
FXUS65 KBYZ 120422
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
922 PM MST Mon Dec 11 2017

.UPDATE...
Temperatures cooled off quickly tonight as winds calmed and a few
spots fell below forecasted minimums. Expect winds to begin
increasing as pressures fall over Alberta so temperatures should
not fall much more. Updated temperatures and humidity and sent
update. borsum

&&

.SHORT TERM...valid for Tue and Wed...

A few updates made to the short term forecast, mostly involving
an active weather pattern on Tuesday. The ridge of high pressure
to our west will keep strong surface pressure anchored west of the
divide as a disturbance (currently just off the northwest coast
of WA) rounds this ridge and drops southeast through northern
Montana Tuesday evening. Pressure falls ahead of this disturbance
late tonight into Tuesday afternoon will strengthen pressure
gradients across our western foothills tonight. Appears winds will
stay just below advisory criteria but folks should expect 45 to
55 mph gusts in locations like Big Timber, Livingston, Nye, and
Harlowton tonight into Tuesday afternoon. These gusty winds could
cause hazardous travel at times for high-profile vehicles. These
strong wind gusts will spread eastward into the Plains through the
day Tuesday as daytime heating allows most locations to tap into
the stronger midlevel winds. Away from the mountain foothills,
we`re expecting wind gusts around 30 to 40 mph. Further east in
Rosebud county, and eastward, the front will come in later so wind
gusts will be less and around 30 to 35 mph. Mid-level winds from
the west will keep our region warm Tuesday afternoon with
temperatures climbing into the mid 50s. Given the stronger winds,
the culmination of many afternoons with above normal
temperatures, and minimal precipitation over the last 8 to 10
days, fire danger will be increased in the afternoon from Golden
Valley and Stillwater county east towards Rosebud counties. Please
see the Rangeland Fire Danger Statement on our website for more
information. In summary, tomorrow will not be a good day for
fires so please use caution with any activities that could cause a
spark during the warmest time of the day.

The aforementioned disturbance will continue SE through Montana
overnight which will keep the winds elevated from Billings and
Roundup eastwards overnight. As for our foothills, winds will
begin to lessen into WEdnesday morning as pressure gradients
begin to decrease across these zones. Expect cooler conditions
Wednesday afternoon with highs generally in the upper 40s to
around 50. Winds will be much less as well in addition to lower
fire dangers as relative humidities will be higher. A weak
shortwave could bring a brief period of mountain snow showers on
Wednesday night, but besides that no precipitation is anticipated
through the short term period. Dobbs

.LONG TERM...valid for Thu...Fri...Sat...Sun...Mon...


The extended continues to look mostly dry and breezy. No
significant changes in the extended. However, did increase PoPs
slightly for Thursday as the ridge starts to weaken. The 12z runs
of the models showed a fairly consistent area of QPF across
Carter and Fallon counties extending into the Dakotas. Saturday
another trough will completely disrupt the ridge over the western
US bringing much of the area a chance for precip. However there
is still a significant spread in the solutions. Sunday and Sunday
night as the trough departs winds still look to be strong across
the area. Have kept winds pretty much the same. Reimer

&&

.AVIATION...


Some high clouds will move across the forecast area tonight with
VFR conditions prevailing. Winds will pick up again tonight
through the day Tuesday from KLVM to Big Timber where gusts of
35kts will be likely tonight with gusts around 45kts on Tuesday.
Windy conditions can be expected across the entire forecast area
on Tuesday. Hooley


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 034/055 034/049 028/047 033/053 033/043 029/048 032/044
    00/N    00/B    10/U    01/B    22/W    11/N    22/J
LVM 032/050 031/046 026/045 032/048 031/040 030/045 033/042
    00/N    01/E    10/N    01/N    43/W    22/W    22/W
HDN 027/059 030/049 026/047 028/055 030/044 026/048 029/046
    00/N    00/B    11/U    01/B    22/W    11/B    23/J
MLS 024/055 030/046 026/041 026/052 030/042 026/046 028/044
    00/U    00/B    21/B    01/B    22/W    11/N    22/J
4BQ 024/057 032/047 026/041 027/053 030/042 025/047 028/043
    00/U    00/B    41/B    00/B    22/W    11/B    23/J
BHK 021/051 027/042 023/036 022/048 026/039 022/043 025/042
    00/U    01/B    33/J    01/B    21/N    12/J    12/J
SHR 023/062 030/048 025/045 026/055 028/042 022/048 027/043
    00/U    00/B    11/U    00/B    33/W    11/B    22/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings



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