Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 181012
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
612 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WILL DRAW A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6AM UPDATE...
MADE SLIGHT TWEAKS TO FOG EXTENT IN GRIDS THIS MORNING FOR BANGOR
AND DOWN EAST AREAS. THE LAST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOW
EXITING SOUTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT WINDS WILL BE
PERSISTENT IN MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT...WHICH WILL KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING AS MUCH AS
LOCATIONS UNDER THE HIGH.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING INTO NEW BRUNSWICK AND WILL
DRAG THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...REACHING
THE COAST BY MIDDAY AND WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT...SUFFICIENT
H850 MOISTURE EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD CUMULUS FIELDS THAT WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST TO OVER 20 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL ONLY
REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN THE CROWN OF MAINE...BUT WILL
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR BANGOR AND DOWN EAST BEFORE THE
FRONT ARRIVES. THE WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE
HIGH REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA. WHILE WINDS MAY NOT ALLOW A
DEEP RADIATION INVERSION TO FORM...EXCEPT IN THE ALLAGASH...COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS SUFFICIENT TO BRING TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE EXACT LINE BETWEEN FROST
AND FREEZE CONDITIONS REMAINS IN QUESTION...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE
THE FREEZE WATCH IN PLACE. HAVE ADDED ZONES IN NORTHERN HANCOCK
AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES TO THE FREEZE WATCH. COASTAL HANCOCK AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY FROST...BUT FREEZE
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AND WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE WATCH. THE
FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM FOR THE SEASON HAS ALREADY ENDED IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK
COUNTY. AS A RESULT...NO WATCHES OR ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR
THIS EVENT IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY.
&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TEMPERATURES REBOUND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AFTER A FROSTY START ON
FRIDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE.  TEMPERATURES WILL
BE 7 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY MORNING AND CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR LATE SEPTEMBER CLIMO ON SATURDAY. SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP LATE ON SATURDAY WELL AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES WESTERN MAINE ON SUNDAY AND MOVES ACROSS THE
STATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.  EXPECT SHOWERS TO
PERSIST ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.

A FULL LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH MORE REMINISCENT OF MID TO LATE FALL
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE SURFACE HIGH
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BEFORE PROGRESSING
EAST...THUS IT MODIFIES BEFORE REACHING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.
&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS FOR BGR/BHB TO THE SOUTH AND FVE/CAR TO
THE NORTH WILL END BY MID-MORNING. BHB/BGR WILL TRANSITION TO VFR
WHILE SITES NORTH OF HUL WILL HAVE MVFR CIGS UNTIL EARLY
AFTERNOON.  ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY DUE TO SHOWERS.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: EXTENDED THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS BY 3 HOURS TO 11AM
THIS MORNING DUE TO LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM EDOUARD. UPON
CANCELLATION OF THIS ADVISORY...A NEW SCA FOR STRONG NW WINDS WILL
BE REQUIRED FOR TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTS OVER 25 KTS AT TIME AS THE
FIRST COLD AIR OF THE SEASON SWEEPS OVER THE COMPARATIVELY WARMER WATERS.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
     MEZ005-006-010-011-015>017-031-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS
     MORNING FOR ANZ050-051.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MCW
SHORT TERM...OKULSKI
LONG TERM...OKULSKI
AVIATION...MCW/OKULSKI
MARINE...MCW/OKULSKI






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