Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 291925
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
325 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL WORK INTO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONCERNS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...STARTING OUT CLEAR AND COOL, BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW
SETTING UP LATER ON WILL BEGIN TO BRING A HUMID AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION. ALONG W/THIS HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE(NAM AND THE HRRR 3KM) HINTED AT
SOME LIGHT PRECIP IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE PUSHING
IN FROM THE GULF OF MAINE WATERS LATER TONIGHT. SINCE THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW APPEARS TO TO BE RESTRICTED BELOW 925MBS AND VERY
DRY ABOVE THE THAT LAYER, THINKING HERE IS THAT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE
WILL BE LIMITED/SPOTTY AT BEST. ATTM, DECIDED TO HIT THE FOG
HARDER FOR THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION AND THE COAST OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WILL SEE
PATCHY FOG W/THAT LOW CLOUD DECK PUSHING NORTHWARD.

FOR SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE REGION
FROM QUEBEC. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND BURN OFF BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. SOME HEATING WILL TAKE PLACE ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA W/THIS AREA DESTABILIZING
QUICKLY BY THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST, CLOUDS COULD HANG ON FOR
A WHILE KEEPING LLVLS STABLE FOR A TIME, BEFORE THINGS BREAKOUT
AND DESTABILIZATION TAKES PLACE. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO SHOOT
THROUGH THE 50S AND GO WELL INTO MID 60S BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE
NAM12 AND GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW SB CAPES HITTING 700-1200 JOULES BY
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND LIS DROPPING TO -2 OR SO AND 0-6KM
SHEAR OF 40 KTS. FLOW TURNS TO THE SW THROUGH THE COLUMN W/SOME
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR NOTED IN THE LLVLS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR N
AND W. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD MID LEVEL JET OF 50 KTS FORECAST TO
BE HITTING THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY WHICH WOULD ENHANCE THE
FORCING. FREEZING LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 12K FT. SO HAIL
IS A POSSIBILITY. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE CWA, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS.
THE BEST LAPSE RATES RUN THROUGH QUEBEC AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT. AFTER COLLABORATING W/GYX, DECIDED TO ADD ENHANCED WORDING
FOR TSTMS MAINLY WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. SPC HAS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 80S ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST WHILE THE DOWNEAST AND COAST WILL BE COOLER W/A SSW FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL MENTION POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO
THE DOWN EAST COAST OF MAINE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. EXPECT A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING SUNDAY. EXPECT THE BEST WEATHER TO BE
FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN MOST MAINE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE HIGH.
HOWEVER, CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS
DOWN EAST MAINE. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. THERE IS EVEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN AND
NORTHWEST MAINE BUT WONT MENTION QUITE YET. MONDAY IS SHAPING UP
AS A MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING
UP FROM THE SOUTH COULD BRING SOME RAIN INTO THE REGION LATER
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER AND
EASTERLY FLOW. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY DURING
WEDNESDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR INTO EARLY TONIGHT AND THEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO GO DOWN TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING ON
SATURDAY. KBGR AND KBHB WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR OUT DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SATURDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY DOWN EAST AREAS. EXPECT VFR
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EARLY SUNDAY IMPROVING TO
VFR ALL AREAS LATER SUNDAY. VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK IN RAIN
AND LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
MIDDAY SATURDAY. THINGS WILL CHANGE HOWEVER BY LATE AFTERNOON AS
THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DECIDED
TO INCREASE THE WIND SPEEDS TO 25 KTS ESPECIALLY W/THE GUSTS.
SEAS WILL COME UP AS WELL APPROACHING  5-6 FT ESPECIALLY OVER THE
OUTER ZONES BY 6 PM OR SO. FOG TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO TRICKY NAVIGATION AS VSBYS COULD GO DOWN
BELOW 1 NM.

SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS MAY THEN INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS BY MID
WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
 ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA



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