Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 300447
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1247 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
COMBINE WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTH OF THE REGION TO BRING
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF RAIN EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
TO MID 20S NORTH...TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S DOWNEAST. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.

CURRENT PATTERN: DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
REGION. HEADING THROUGH THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD...A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS REMAINING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...ENSURING
A QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE THROUGH THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD AS EAST COAST TROUGHING BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY.  SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES FROM SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST MONDAY MORNING TO A LOCATION IN THE OUTER GULF OF
MAINE WATERS BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND
GIVEN THE VERY DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS...DO EXPECT THAT WE/LL MAKE IT
THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE DAY DRY WITH INCREASING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WILL
COME TO AND END...AS A SERIES OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES PUSH INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES.  INITIAL PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS SUNDAY NIGHT IN
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION.
PWATS ARE NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE /0.5-0.75"/ AND WITH SYNOPTIC
FORCING INITIALLY ALSO NOT STRONG...EXPECT IT WILL TAKE MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT TO SATURATE THE COLUMN WITH SHOWERS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT.  CERTAINLY A MUCH WARMER NIGHT
GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA.  AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH SOME
DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO IT/S EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH /ECMWF
STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS/. FEEL THAT THIS IS THE BEST
THREAT OF BONA-FIDE RAINFALL DURING THE PERIOD...PRIMARILY FOR
DOWNEAST AREAS...WITH AT LEAST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH OF THIS.

A MORE ECMWF-LIKE SOLUTION WOULD SPELL A SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER QPF
SCENARIO /0.5-0.75"/...AND THE EC DOES HAVE GOOD ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO BOOST POPS FOR MONDAY /AND INTO MONDAY
NIGHT/.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN AN ALL RAIN
SCENARIO /EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS/...BUT IT WILL BE SOMEWHAT CLOSE
WITH T8S BELOW FREEZING AWAY FROM THE COAST. CERTAINLY A RAW/DAMP
DAY.
&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SUMMARY: EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA IN THE
FORM OF A REX BLOCK CENTERED CLOSE TO THE AXIS OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS...WHICH IS HELPING TO HALT ANY ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
PACIFIC. THIS CURRENT THEME IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS GOOD
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE FORECAST AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
ANCHORING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REX BLOCK WILL FILL AND LIFT
NORTHEAST...WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING SETTING UP ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA WITH SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING STRENGTHENING ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM AND POLAR AIRMASSES THROUGH THE
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...GENERALLY SPELLING A PERIOD WITH AT OR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

MODEL AGREEMENT/CONFIDENCE:   STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN EXISTS THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DISAGREEMENT QUICKLY
ENSUES WITH REGARDS TO HOW STRONG THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA WILL BE AND WHETHER IT WILL CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW ALOFT.
THIS DISPARITY ISN`T THAT SURPRISING IN POTENTIAL CUT OFF LOW
SCENARIOS....BUT DOES SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...THE IDEA OF
TROUGHING IN THE EAST IS WELL-AGREED UPON.

THE DETAILS...

LOW PRESSURE PULLS EAST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
ONLY WEAK RIDGING BUILDING IN IN ITS WAKE. OTHER THAN A FEW
RESIDUAL SHOWERS...EXPECT A DRYING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 50S.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE TO HIGH IN ANOTHER UNSETTLED PERIOD OF
WEATHER FOR THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY AS EASTERN TROUGH DEEPENS
FURTHER WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT.
DETAILS ON SPECIFICS LIKE QPF ARE CERTAINLY NOT CLEAR AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL BOOST POPS INTO THE HIGH CHANCE CATEGORY.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SPELL AT OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY WHEN THE AGREEMENT ON
PRECIPITATION IS HIGHEST.

CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES GREATLY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
FRIDAY. CERTAINLY AN ABOVE-CLIMO POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WITH
TROUGHING /AND PERHAPS A CUTOFF LOW/ REMAINING OVERHEAD. WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A TAD BELOW SEASONAL NORMS GIVEN THE TROUGH LOCATION
AND THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM:  VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY DETERIORATING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR /AND POTENTIALLY IFR/ RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT BGR/BHB.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM: THE NEXT THREAT OF SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL COME
ON MONDAY DUE TO STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/VJN
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...NORCROSS/VJN
MARINE...NORCROSS/VJN



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