Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 132228
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
628 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO QUEBEC FROM CENTRAL CANADA TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS WEEK FOLLOWED BY A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE
IN THE WEEK.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
620 PM UPDATE...
UPDATE TO TWEAK TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS
COMING THROUGH NOW, WITH THEN A LITTLE BREAK, AND THEN AN INCREASE
IN SHOWERS AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND MIDNIGHT. HASN`T BEEN
ANY LIGHTNING IN A WHILE AS ATMOSPHERE IS QUITE STABLE. REDUCED
TSTORM COVERAGE FROM SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AND LIMITED TO NORTH OF
BANGOR THIS EVENING, AND REMOVED THUNDER ALLTOGETHER AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
STATE TONIGHT. UPPER LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES MONDAY. HAVE USED THE GFS TO INITIALIZE THE POP...SKY
COVER AND QPF GRIDS. WILL MAKE SOME MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO POP
GRIDS. FOR SUSTAINED WINDS WILL USE THE MOSG25. EXPECT SOME
THUNDER FOR REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. WILL
INCLUDE SCATTERED THUNDER SHOWERS AND TIME THIS WITH TROUGH AND
HIGHEST POP AREA. FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAVE USED
THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL. FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE USED THE
BIAS CORRECTED MOSG25.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST TRENDS FROM TDYS 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER
WITH THE RETURN OF CLDNSS AND SHWRS FROM S TO N BACK INTO THE FA
MON NGT. DESPITE THIS...MOST LCTNS...EVEN ACROSS THE FAR N SHOULD
BE EXPERIENCING SHWRS BY MIDDAY TUE. PROJECTED MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW A LITTLE MLCAPE IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG MID
TO UPPER LVL WIND SHEAR TUE AFTN. SO FOR NOW...WE WILL MENTION A
CHC OF THUNDER TUE AFTN/EVE...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ENHANCED
WORDING FOR NOW GIVEN HOW SKINNY THE FCST CAPE IS FOR THESE PDS.

OTHERWISE...SHWRS WILL CONT OVRNGT TUE INTO WED MORN AS THE COLD
FRONT CONTS IT SLOW MARCH WELL AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROF ADVCG EWRD
FROM CNTRL CAN AND THE GREAT LKS. WITH FAIRLY HI PWS...CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POTENTIAL OF LCLZD HVY RNFL...BUT TO PIN POINT THIS NOW
WITH FCST 6HRLY QPF FCSTS WOULD BE DIFFICULT AT BEST...SO FOR NOW
WILL CONT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS 6 HRLY QPF...WHICH WILL TRUNCATE
LOCALIZED QPF BULLSEYE MAXS...BUT SHOULD GIVE A BETTER CHC OF
GETTING RELATIVE TMG OF HIGHER POPS.

BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS...WE BEGIN SLOWLY ENDING SHWRS W
TO E ACROSS THE FA MIDDAY WED THRU THE AFTN...WITH SCT SHWRS
PERHAPS HOLDING ON ACROSS THE SE ME BOOT HEEL INTO WED NGT. WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FCST CAPE FOR WED FROM MODELS ATTM...WE WILL
HOLD OFF ANY MENTION OF THUNDER FOR WED THIS UPDATE.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS THIS PD WILL FEATURE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS AND ABV NORMAL LOWS...TYPICAL OF A TROP SRLY WIND
FLOW REGIME ARRIVING FROM THE GULF OF ME.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WED NGT AND THU WILL FEATURE SLOW CLRG FROM WNW TO ESE ACROSS THE
FA. BOTH HI AND LOW TEMPS WED NGT THRU THU NGT WILL BE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HI TEMPS RECOVERING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS ON
FRI AND ABV NORMS MOST LCTNS ON SAT UNDER MCLR SKIES AS HIGH
PERES ALF BEGINS TO BUILD OVR THE NE U.S. LONGER RANGE MODELS THEN
INDICATE INCREASING CLDNSS ACROSS THE SW TWO THIRDS OF THE FA SAT
NGT AND PERHAPS A CHC OF SHWRS AND A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS OVR THESE
PTNS OF THE FA ON SUN AS A S/WV FROM THE OH VLY TRIES TO UNDERCUT
THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE SW.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT
THEN IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER DAWN MONDAY AND PERSISTING WITH VFR
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR ALL TAF SITES XPCTD MON EVE...THEN
CONDITIONS LOWERING FROM S TO N IN NS/SHWRS TO MVFR LATE MON NGT
INTO TUE MORN...THEN LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR IN CONTD SHWRS AND PATCHY
FOG TUE NGT. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM W TO E TO VFR
BEHIND A SLOW MOVG COLD FRONT ON WED THEN REMAIN VFR INTO THE LATE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 TO INITIALIZE THE SUSTAINED WIND
GRIDS. WILL LOWER MODEL WINDS BY 30 PERCENT. FOR WAVES: EXPECT
HIGH BIAS FOR WAVE MODEL WINDS IN THE GULF OF MAINE RESULTING IN
HIGH WAVE FORECAST. HAVE RUN THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL ON FORECAST
WIND GRIDS. THIS SHOULD ELIMINATE PART OF THE BIAS ISSUE HOWEVER
SOME OF COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEYOND THE BOUNDARY OF
NEAR SHORE MODEL. BASED ON CURRENT SPECTRAL INFORMATION FROM 44027
AND WNA/SPECTRAL...LONG PERIOD WAVES APPEAR TO BE 1 FOOT OR LOWER
SO THIS IS NOT BIG FACTOR AND GULF OF MAINE WIND PRIMARY SYSTEM...
AT LEAST UNTIL FETCH LENGTHENS TO SOUTH BEYOND THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.


SHORT TO TERM: WITH A SSW 10 TO 20 KT WIND FETCH AHEAD OF A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT...WE STILL THINK THERE WILL BE A PD OF HAZ
SCA WV HTS OVR OUR OUTER MZS050-051 TUE AND TUE NGT. ONSET
HOWEVER...WILL BE ABOUT 12 TO 18 HRS SLOWER THAN WW3 GUIDANCE...
WHICH CONTS TO EXHIBIT ITS WARM SEASON SFC WIND SPEED HI BIAS. TO
CORRECT FOR THIS...WE LEANED MORE TOWARD SWAN GUIDANCE...OR ABOUT
65 TO 80 PERCENT OF WW3 WV GUIDANCE HTS. WV HTS SHOULD FALL BLO SCA
THRESHOLD (5 FT) DURING THE DAY WED AND THEN REMAIN SO FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...FOISY/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...FOISY/MIGNONE/VJN
MARINE...MIGNONE/VJN





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