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000
FXUS61 KCAR 201059
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
659 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
655 AM UPDATE: ADJUSTED THE SKY CONDITIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE IR
SATL IMAGERY SHOWING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
DOWNEAST REGION. THE LATEST LAPS PICKED UP ON THIS WELL AND USED
THIS SETUP TO SHOW SOME CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE WEAK
DISTURBANCE MENTIONED BELOW MOVES EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CHALLENGE THIS PACKAGE WILL TIMING OF RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ON FRIDAY.

IN THE VERY NEAR TERM FOR TODAY, IT LOOKS PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD
W/PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER AS THE REGION GETS IN A SW FLOW BY
THE AFTERNOON. THE 06Z IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWED SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL MAINE. THE LATEST
NAM AND REGIONAL GEM PICKED UP ON THESE CLOUDS WELL AS A WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE UPPER FLOW WAS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WAS
WELL ANALYZED BY THE 00Z UA. DECIDED TO LEAN W/A NAM-GEM BLEND
FOR THE SKY CONDITIONS SHOWING SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS THIS MORNING
AND THEN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. HIGH PRES RIDGE
AT THE SFC WILL SLIDE EAST THIS AFTERNOON W/THE WINDS TURNING MORE
SW HELPING TO BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. STAYED CLOSE TO
THE DAYCREW`S ASSESSMENT FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES W/LOW TO MID 70S.
RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER(MID/UPPER 60S) DUE TO A SSW WIND OFF THE GULF OF MAINE
WATERS.

FOR TONIGHT, THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE LAST FEW
DAYS IF FCST TO MAKE ITS APCH. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
ACROSS THE FAR W AND NW AREAS. THE 00Z NAM APPEARED TO BE DOING
WELL W/THIS FEATURE PER THE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND DECIDED TO USE
IT FOR THE PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS CLOUDS. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE
ENOUGH MID LEVEL FORCING COUPLED W/LLVL CONVERGENCE OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS FOR THE W AND NW AREAS BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE NAM ALSO INDICATES SOME INSTABILITY MAINLY
BACK TO MAINE-QUEBEC BORDER(ELEVATED CAPE OF 200 JOULES). 850-700MB
LAPSE RATES HIT 6.5 C/KM IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS BY FRIDAY
MORNING AIDING IN THE INSTABILITY. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO GO
W/ISOLD TSTMS FOR THE MAINE-QUEBEC BORDER FROM 08-12Z. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL OFF INITIALLY TONIGHT, BUT WILL BEGIN TO RISE AS SOME
WEAK WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT PUSHES IN. A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND
GEM WAS USED FOR THE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRIDAY EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SET OFF BY A SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM. THE 00Z NAM AND
12Z ECMWF ARE MOST ROBUST WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE
500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE WITH THIS
SYSTEM SAGGING SOUTH EARLY IN THE DAY HOW MUCH THE ATMOSPHERE CAN
RECOVER. EXPECT A BRIEF CLEARING GOING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE AND BOUNDARY MOVE EAST.

THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO SATURDAY WHERE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT
AT YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE 18Z GFS DID LOOK TO HAVE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE LATEST 00Z GFS DOES SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER
HANDLE BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS
RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM WITH THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPING THIS SHORTWAVE
FARTHER SOUTH. PLAN ON KEEPING SOME CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THERE COULD BE SOME STORMS ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN AND
DOWNEAST AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE SOUTH BY THE START OF THE PERIOD. IT DOES
LOOK LIKE BRIEF CLEARING AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
LOOKS TO MAKE REGION UNSETTLED FOR MONDAY. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND
00Z ECMWF AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO. CHANCES BECOME LESS FOR TUESDAY
WITH MANLY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE
FOR WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS CANADA. BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE IN THE NORTH. GENERALLY UNSETTLE PATTERN
SHAPING UP FOR THE LONG TERM. HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL
AND LOW AND LOWS GENERALLY NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR RIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: VFR FOR MOST SITES WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. VFR FOR MOST SITES
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED AS A SWELL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AS WE HAVE ONE OUT ON THE WATERS ATTM W/A PERIOD OF 8-9
SECONDS. A SOUTHERLY SWELL IS FCST TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AND THE
LATEST WNAWAVE BRINGS 4-5 FOOT SWELL INTO THE WATERS BY FRIDAY
MORNING. IT IS LINING UP PRETTY WELL ATTM PER THE 06Z OBS. DECIDED
TO BRING THE WAVE HEIGHTS UP A FOOT FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST BASED
ON THE WNAWAVE AND CARRY A MENTION OF THE SWELL. WINDS WILL BE WSW AT
10-15 KTS.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SEA WILL GENERALLY BE 3 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...JORDAN
LONG TERM...JORDAN
AVIATION...HEWITT/JORDAN
MARINE...HEWITT/JORDAN