Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 251122

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
722 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

Low pressure across southern new england will move northeast of
the region this morning. A cold front will approach from Quebec
this afternoon and cross the area tonight bringing the potential
for thunderstorms. High pressure is expected to move across the
region on Thursday.


707 AM Update: Needed to keep fog around for the downeast region
this morning as well as the low clouds across the CWA. Cloud deck
is not all that thick but light southerly wind keeping deep llvl
moisture in longer. Hrly temps were adjusted to fit the current
conditions. Still expecting clouds/fog to lift by mid-morning
w/some sun returning.

Previous Discussion...
Main focus today will be the potential for some organized
convection, mainly this afternoon into early evening.

Low pres spinning off the Maine coast will lift ne today. Latest
obs and satellite imagery showed llvl clouds w/some fog across
the downeast and coastal areas. Patchy drizzle or a light rain
shower is possible this morning across the eastern areas northward
into Aroostook County. The low clouds/fog will lift and burn off
by mid morning w/some sunshine to return. This will help to warm
things up rather quickly by late afternoon before clouds move in
ahead of a cold front coming out of Quebec. The atmosphere will
destabilize w/an inverted V type sounding as depicted by the NAM
and GFS. SB/MU CAPES forecast to hit 1000+ joules across portions
of northern and central areas by the afternoon. 850-500mb lapse
rates of 6.5-7.0c/km are forecast to be in place w/pwats of 1.00+
inches. Other parameters worth noting are the K index around 35
w/total totals of 50+. Showalter index is forecast to be around
-2. A nice mid level jet streak of 35 kt is shown to move across
northern and western areas. Dewpoints rising into the upper 50s
look possible in a narrow corridor across Aroostook County down
into north-central Piscataquis County by late afternoon
w/moisture loading from 850-700mbs. All this would point to the
potential for an active afternoon/early evening. The NAM/GFS and
HRRR 3KM show a broken line of tstms developing in nw Maine and
then move ese. There is potential for some storms to show
supercell characteristics. Therefore, after coordinating w/GYX,
decided to add enhanced wording in the forecast for hail and
strong wind gusts for this afternoon across northern and western
areas including the Millinocket and Greenville area. This setup
looks similar to a setup back in May 24th,2014 where severe storms
and some rotating cells affected the northern 1/2 of the CWA. The
Downeast region will see a south wind throughout the day keeping
the llvls stable and inhibiting tstms.

For tonight, the cold front is forecast to slide quickly se this
evening and the airmass cooling down and tstms diminishing.
Followed a consensus apch and began clearing things out from w to
e after midnight. Temps will be quite cool across portions of
northern and western areas by morning w/some low lying areas
seeing low 40s.


High pressure is expected to build across the region during the
day Thursday into Thursday Evening then slowly move to the east. A
warm front is then expected to move across the region during the
day Friday resulting in showers. Will use the Bias corrected
consensus raw for temperatures Thursday and Friday.


A frontal system is expected to move southward across the region
Friday Night. This system may produce some thunderstorms during
the evening Friday as it becomes stationary across the State. The
showers will likely continue into the day Saturday. High pressure
is then expected to build to the northeast Sunday. Low pressure
will then move to the north of the region Monday and Tuesday
resulting in more showers. High pressure will then build across
the Northeast Wednesday.


NEAR TERM: IFR/MVFR Conditions this morning w/fog for KBGR and KBHB.
Conditions will improve to VFR by mid morning. Some TSRAS are
possible in the vicinity of the northern terminals later this
afternoon into early evening w/strong wind gusts possibe. For
tonight, MVFR later in the evening through Thursday morning.

SHORT TERM: Expect VFR Thursday. MVFR conditions Friday and
Saturday. VFR conditions are expected Sunday. MVFR conditions are
expected Monday.


NEAR TERM: No headlines expected. 2-3 foot waves attm will build
to 3-4 by the afternoon. Using a blend of the NAM12 and GFS20
brought sustained winds to 15 kts tonight the passage of the cold

SHORT TERM: Have used the GFS20 for sustained winds Thursday and
Friday then transition to the Super Blend winds late Friday. For
Waves: Local wind wave (1-2 feet/5-6 seconds) is expected to be
primary wave system through the Weekend with a secondary longer
period swell from the southeast averaging around 1 foot/7-8





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