Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 272229
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
629 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region Friday afternoon. High
pressure will briefly build into the area, followed by a
secondary cold front on Saturday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
630 PM Update...
Hrly temps/dewpoints were adjusted to fit the latest conditions
showing mild & damp conditions across the region. Satl imagery
had lots of low clouds hanging over the region w/strong
inversion in place. Some fog showing up especially across the
St. John Valley and now along the coast as BHB(Bar Harbor) down
to 1/4SM. Kept the fog in the forecast through the night. Radar
loop showing some light returns moving n w/deep sse flow in
place through 10k ft. Stayed w/the daycrew`s thinking of light
rain and drizzle for tonight into Friday morning.

Previous Discussion...
A moist maritime low level flow under a strong subsidence
inversion will continue to dominate area weather with low clouds
this evening. The weakening cut-off low spinning well south of
the Gulf of Maine is continuing to stream Atlantic moisture
northward with light rain and drizzle...mostly in upslope areas
and along the coast. Drizzle and fog will become more widespread
tonight as temperatures cool towards the relatively high dew
points over the area. Expect lows to drop towards 50F with some
mid to upper 40s on the coast due to the onshore flow. Fog,
light rain and drizzle remain the predominant conditions under
the persistent inversion during Friday morning, but a weakening
cold front will cross during the afternoon and finally break up
the inversion with drier continental air by Friday evening.
Changed the type of precipitation to showers for the afternoon,
but do not expect any thunderstorm activity as SB-CAPE doesn`t
make it into the forecast area and elevated CAPE looks weak.
Furthermore, fog and stratus will tend to linger towards the
coast all day as the inversion won`t break there until later
Friday night. Highs on Friday look warmer for most locations
except the coastal zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The models are in good agreement through the period. A weak
high pressure ridge will build into the area behind a cold
frontal system that moved over New Brunswick. A low moving
through the IN/IL will move to southwestern Maine Saturday
morning. Saturday evening the low will move east if the area and
higher pressure will briefly build back in across the area. A
warm front will move into southwest Maine early Sunday
afternoon, then into central Maine by the end of the period.

Loaded a blend of the GFS/GEM/NAM/ECMWF to smooth out the minor
differences in the models. Loaded NAWAVE4 for seas in the
coastal waters. Loaded windgust by factor tool. For QPF used
GFS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The extended models are in good agreement. An active period of
weather with lows and fronts tracking through the area every 12
hrs or so. A warm frontal system moves into southwest Maine at
the start of the period, and spread across the state by Monday
morning. The warm front will clear the area Monday evening, and
the associated cold front will move into northwest Maine. The
cold front will move east of the area Tuesday morning, Higher
pressure will build into southern Maine. A filling low over
southwestern Quebec, will move east across northern Maine
Tuesday evening through Thursday morning bringing showers to the
area. High pressure will build into the area, but will be moved
east by the end of the period as another frontal system pushes
into southwest Maine by the end of the period.

Loaded a blend to smooth out the differences in the models,
however the solution leans more towards the GFS solution. Used
NAWAVE4 for seas in the coastal waters. Used windgust by factor
tool.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: LIFR to VLIFR will continue at higher terrain
terminals such as GNR and FVE through Friday morning. Other
terminals that are currently MVFR will slowly return to IFR and
LIFR this evening. By morning, all sites are expected to be LIFR
to VLIFR due to fog and low clouds, but will recover to MVFR by
afternoon.

SHORT TERM: MVFR early in HUL as a few scatter shower clear the
area, otherwise VFR all sites. VFR conditions over night,
increasing clouds and decreasing ceilings as a low moves into
the area Saturday morning. MVFR conditions in rain late morning
Sunday through early evening, then clearing. VFR conditions
Saturday evening through early afternoon Sunday. A warm front
will move into central Maine bringing conditons down to MVFR by
afternoon, the frontal system will stall over central Maine then
move north as a warm front. MVFR conditions will remain in BHB,
BGR, and HUL, PQI, CAR, and FVE will fall to IFR in rain Monday
afternoon. IFR conditions will spread to all sites early
Tuesday morning as the cold front moves through the state. MVFR
BHB, and BGR Tuesday morning, then to other sites Tuesday
afternoon. Wrap around precipitation around a filling low
pressure system over eastern Quebec will affect the area through
the end of the period keeping Maine in MVFR to IFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Fog and long period south swell continue to be the
big issues on the waters tonight into Friday. The long period
swell should diminish enough to cancel the Small Craft Advisory
for Hazardous Seas by the advertised timeframe.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA
criteria through the period.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 AM EDT Friday
     for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

Near Term...Hewitt/MCW
Short Term...Norton
Long Term...Norton
Aviation...Hewitt/MCW/Norton
Marine...Hewitt/MCW/Norton



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