Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 202207
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
607 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
KANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD OUT OF QUEBEC THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 71 THROUGH 7 OR 8 PM. THEN
IT SHOULD BE QUIET AS WE WAIT FOR SOME MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST OHIO LATE. ONLY CHANGES MADE
WITH THIS EARLY EVENING UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST THE EVENING SKY
COVERAGE AND TEMPERATURES. EVERYTHING ELSE ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR RIGHT NOW WHICH AREA WILL
NEED IT. IT SEEMS TO BE SOUTH OF A TOLEDO TO MANSFIELD TO
YOUNGSTOWN LINE. FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING A
THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FLOOD AND SEVERE POTENTIAL
MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING A DOMINANT UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT EXTENDS NORTH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT DRIFTS NORTH TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ANY POP UP
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS AS WELL AS ANY CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS
DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE. FOR NOW REALLY
DIFFICULT TO PICK UP ON ANYTHING CONCRETE SO FOR NOW WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OR LOWER OTHERWISE.  TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY CENTRAL
AND WEST.  NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL OHIO AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WENT
WITH VCTS MOST AREAS EAST. IN THE WEST CIGS EITHER LOW VFR OR MVFR
LEVELS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH
CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH SUBSIDENCE SHOWING UP IN THE
LOW/MID LEVELS OF THE FORECAST SOUNDING. OVERNIGHT EXPECTING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO WRN OHIO...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH WEAK WAVE ACROSS WARM FRONT TO OUR WEST. OTHERWISE
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. THURSDAY EXPECTING INCREASING
MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AIRMASS WILL BE VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AND MODELS SHOW ENERGY ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY. A WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS OHIO
THURSDAY AND ONTO THE LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT.  WAVES AS A RESULT SHOULD CONTINUE AT 2 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK






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