Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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232
FXUS61 KCLE 132051
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
351 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
MIDWEST TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH PASSES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL
ALLOW A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY ON MONDAY AND MOVE TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TO FLOW ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NW PA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST MOST PERSISTENT BANDS WERE WOBBLING
NEAR THE OH/PA BORDER. HAVE KEPT THE LAKE EFFECT WARNING GOING FOR
ASHTABULA...ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES SINCE PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL STILL GETTING SOME LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS FROM THE CONNECTION
TO LAKE HURON.

ELSEWHERE THE SNOW HAS BECOME VERY CONVECTIVE LOOKING AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HAVE ALLOWED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR LAKE AND GEAUGA COUNTIES TO EXPIRE. WORST
CASE IN HIS REGION OR UNDER ANY OF THE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE AN INCH OR OR SO.

TI WILL BE COLD TONIGHT BUT THE WINDS WILL DECREASE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HAVE CANCELED THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA SINCE WINDS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
EASTERN AREAS WILL HAVE ENOUGH WIND THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
TO ALL WIND CHILLS TO DIP TO MINUS 10 OR COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ON SUNDAY. CANT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES ACROSS NW PA THROUGH MID MORNING.
ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WE THEN WILL
AWAIT A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY MONDAY NIGHT MAY
REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE MAIN INFLUENCE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TOT EH SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.

GRADUAL WARMING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGHS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE MARINE PACKAGE THIS MORNING. WINDS CONTINUE
TO BLOW TO AROUND 30 KNOTS ON THE LAKE. SPEEDS SHOULD BE PEAKING
AND EXPECT THE FLOW TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY. BY LATE TONIGHT
THE FLOW WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS AND THE THREAT FOR ICING WILL BE
OVER. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL BE
OVER OHIO AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST OF
THE LAKE DURING THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. A PAIR OF
LOWS WILL IMPACT THE REGION THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS
BECOMING WESTERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THESE SYSTEMS. IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE SPEEDS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE ANY HEADLINES.
GIVEN THE COLD WEATHER EXPECTED THE NEXT 36 HOURS EXPECT THERE TO
BE A LOT OF ICE ON THE LAKE AGAIN BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT...BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BY DAYBREAK. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BAND
OF LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE SHIFTING EAST
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND WILL MERGE WITH THE
ONGOING LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS IN THE SNOWBELT...BUT MOST OF THIS
SHOULD BE VFR OR HIGH END MVFR LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IN LIGHT SNOW
ESPECIALLY NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO LATE TONIGHT ALONG
WITH THE THREAT FOR FREEZING SPRAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO
THE LAKE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SUN MORNING WILL TURN OUT OF THE
SE THEN SOUTH LATER SUN AND SUN NIGHT. A LOW CROSSING THE AREA TUE
WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NW FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED BUT WINDS
SPEEDS SHOULD MAINLY STAY 20 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ010>014-
     020>023-029>033-038-089.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     OHZ014-089.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ001>003.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ061-
     146>149-166>169.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS



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