Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 250224
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1024 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the mid Atlantic coast will move offshore as
a warm from central Indiana to southern Ohio moves northeast
through the region. On Thursday the region will be in a rather
warm and humid air mass as a weak cold front approaches from the
northwest. The weak front will move through the region Thursday
evening. Weak high pressure with slightly cooler and less humid
air will overspread the region Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Storms have significantly weakened and the watch has been
canceled. Expect scattered showers/thunderstorms to march their
way across the county warning area overnight. Low level jet and
weak wave aloft should help carry things along. Moisture will
continue to be advected into the area. Mild and increasingly muggy
night. Made minor adjustments to the precip chances into
Thursday.

Previous discussion...A diffuse warm front is located from
central Indiana to southern Ohio. The front will move across the
region tonight and advect much more humid air back into the
region. Dewpoints will rise into the 70s in many locations. The
return of sultry conditions will be accompanied by a chance of
showers and thunderstorms but diurnal timing of the front is not
optimal for strengthening convection. Low LCL heights and
sufficient 0-1km shear near IND has produced some impressive
rotational signatures on radar. This could be a concern over the
next few hours as the warm frontal boundary lifts toward the
region with high surface dewpoints. Overnight low temperatures
will be elevated given the increase in humidity and cloud cover.
Convective activity that overspreads the region this evening will
diminish after midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Have adjusted the precip timing for Thursday...delay/slowing it
per latest high res guidance.

Previous discussion...The main forecast problem during this
period is assessing the likelihood of severe weather Thursday
afternoon as the cold front approaches the region from the
northwest. The region will have plenty of MLCAPE(greater than 2000
j/kg) as temperatures rise to near 90F and dewpoints reach the mid
70s. 0-6km wind shear rises to the 30-40knots which should help
organize and sustain the convection that is expected to develop
over northern Ohio by early to mid afternoon. We can expect some
bowing line segments with damaging winds being the most likely
threat.

Deep tropical moisture will again be in place in this air mass as
PW values reach near 2.0 inches. Intense convection will likely
produce torrential rainfall rates of 3-4" per hour and produce
localized flooding.

Heat Indices will reach the upper 90s making it feel quite sultry
near the end of a very warm August.

The front will drop south across the region Thursday evening and
lingering showers and thunderstorms should end near midnight.

Slightly cooler and less humid air will move into the region
behind the front but no quick drying is expected since cold
advection is weak.

For the weekend upper level ridging builds over the mid Atlantic
states which should produce dry stable conditions across the
region will a gradual increase in heat and humidity.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Little change in the extended period.  Sunday will be hot and humid
with temps in the mid to upper 80s.  But a weak frontal boundary
will move across the forecast area late Sunday into Monday.  For now
will keep low chance pops going...mainly Sunday night into Monday
morning.   High pressure builds south over the area Monday and holds
fast into the middle of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
First batch of showers and thunderstorms will cross the forecast
area tonight. There have been two super cell thunderstorms, the
first crossing Wood County and the other in Putnam County, both
moving east northeast about 25 knots. The storms should weaken
overnight as they move into more stable air. MVFR or brief IFR
likely in the vicinity of the heavier showers and thunderstorms.
MVFR and perhaps IFR fog and stratus will begin to develop later
tonight or early Thursday morning. Ceilings will lift to VFR
Thursday but additional showers and thunderstorms will develop
ahead of a cold front. There is a risk of strong to severe storms
again Thursday afternoon and evening with strong winds the biggest
threat. MVFR and local IFR likely in the vicinity of the storms
Thursday.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday
night. A chance of non-VFR late Saturday night or Sunday morning
with the next front.

&&

.MARINE...
South winds will turn to the southwest overnight as a warm front
across the Mid Mississippi Valley lifts NE of the Lake.  Better
chance for convection tomorrow afternoon and evening as capes rise
to above 2000 J/kg.   Cold front will move across the lake Thursday
night.  Small craft advisory will likely be needed at least in the
east...as winds turn to West at 15 to 20 knots.   Lake quiets down
Friday afternoon as high pressure builds over the lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LaPlante
NEAR TERM...LaPlante
SHORT TERM...LaPlante/Oudeman
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...DJB



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