Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 240545
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
145 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FROM OHIO TO THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST
COAST TONIGHT...HOWEVER A RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEST ACROSS
PENNSYLVANIA TO LAKE ERIE THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
JUST MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY
FROST OVERNIGHT. HAVE NUDGED TEMPS UP A LITTLE A FEW AREAS.
CURRENT TEMPS ARE STILL RATHER WARM BUT GIVEN DEW POINTS MOST AREAS
SHOULD MAKE A RUN FOR THE FORECAST LOWS.

PREVIOUS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OVER PA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST OFF THE
EAST COAST OVERNIGHT LEAVING A RIDGE WEST INTO THE AREA. SKIES
HAVE REMAINED CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY SO FAR ACROSS THE AREA.
CONVECTIVE CU DEVELOPING SW OF A FWA-AOH LINE WILL LIKELY
DRIFT/BUILD NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT THEN DISSIPATE. OVERNIGHT EXPECT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. GOOD WARM ADVECTION TODAY AND FORECAST TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SO LOW TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING FROST EXCEPT PATCHY VARIETY POSSIBLY NWRN PA
INLAND IN THE ELEVATED VALLEYS OR TRUMBULL CO. WENT CLOSE TO MAV
NUMBERS BUT DID DROP A DEGREE OR SO GIVEN DEW POINTS STILL IN THE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY SHOULD BEGIN CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH THE RIDGE ACROSS
EASTERN COUNTIES BUT AS IT BREAKS DOWN EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE
FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. ON BALANCE EXPECTING PARTLY CLOUDY
BUT THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON LIKELY BE MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN. BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE AND ENERGY COMING ACROSS THE
TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO PUT A LOW CHANCE POP IN THE WEST. THIS
ACTIVITY IF IT DEVELOPS WOULD LIKELY TRACK EAST AFFECTING NRN
COUNTIES AS WELL AS LAKE ERIE SO WEST WITH A LOW CHANCE POP
OVERNIGHT ON THE LAKE AND INTO NWRN PA AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IN
OHIO. MONDAY MODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL LAKES WITH ENERGY INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS SHOULD SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SOUPY AIR MASS THAT WILL BE GETTING INTO THE
AREA WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT MOST OF THIS SHOULD BE IN THE
EAST EARLY...THEN MOVING OUT. TUESDAY MODELS BRING ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVING THIS TIME ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY. WILL HAVE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS
ACROSS THE REGION LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. SLOWLY DECREASE
POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A
LONG WAVE TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES WHILE IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. IT
APPEARS THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE DOWNSTREAM OF THE AREA
AS THE GLFMX TAP SHUTS OFF...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH
WED NIGHT TO CARRY SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON.
ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPS FOR WED DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN RESPONSE TO THE
LATEST DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL GUIDANCE. WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR
THROUGH SAT WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDER.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SAT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING...BUT MODELS VARY ON TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AND EVENTUALLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN FRO
THE WEST BUT DRY AND VFR THRU EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE WATERS REMAIN CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN LAKESHORE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST BY SUNDAY.
MON AFTERNOON THE WIND WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH IN EXCESS OF
15 KNOTS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS...THOUGH WAVES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
2 FEET OR LESS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THU.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...MAYERS





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