Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 031944
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
344 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN LOWER MI INTO NRN INDIANA MOVING EAST AND
IS FORECAST TO BE FROM NEAR ERIE PA TO NRN KY BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AS UPPER
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FRONT NEAR A LINE FROM THE THUMB OF MI SSW TO NEAR FORT WAYNE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CAN BE SEE IN DEWPOINTS WHICH DROP INTO THE 50S
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. SATELLITE SHOWS A GOOD CONVECTIVE CU FIELD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA WITH MIXED LAYER
CAPES ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3DS OF THE AREA NOW ARE BETWEEN 1000
AND 1500 J/KG. RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS DEVELOPING OFFSHORE ERIE PA AS
WELL AS IN STARK COUNTY AND POINTS SE. DEEPER INSTABILITY ALONG
WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS HELPED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR
KMIE. EXPECTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST WITH A
GENERAL EAST-SOUTHEAST MOTION. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON ROUGHLY EAST OF A KMNN-KCLE
LINE. POPS WILL BE LOWERED EACH HOUR THROUGH ABOUT 04Z FOLLOWING
DIURNAL TRENDS. AFTER MIDNIGHT HOWEVER MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE
ACROSS FAR NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW
ROTATING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WILL NEED TO BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TO NWRN PA AND ASHTABULA COUNTY TO COVER THREAT. OVERNIGHT
LOWS FROM 55 TO NEAR 60 LOOK FINE GIVEN THE COOL DOWN IN TEMPS
ACROSS THE AREA.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL NEED TO CONTEND WITH HIGH RH AS
WELL AS PERTURBATIONS WRAPPING AROUND THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. ENOUGH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR TO KEEP
SKIES PC WEST AND SOUTH OF ROUGHLY A KLPR TO KYNG LINE BUT ACROSS
NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA BELIEVE ENOUGH MOISTURE GETS IN TO GO WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL
ALSO KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT FAR
NORTHEAST. WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS EAST. BY EVENING HOWEVER MOISTURE
WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MODELS SHOW LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE IN THE
THE MODELS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS THE FURTHEST NORTH
WITH THE HIGH RH VS THE NAM/ECMWF. WILL FOLLOW MORE OF A NAM/ECMWF
BLEND BRINGING THE MOISTURE/POPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WSW AFTER
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY MORNING...WILL HAVE LOW
PRESSURE IN SRN IL WITH CHANCE POPS INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
THURSDAY DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE ECMWF FAVORING PRECIP
MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE THE NAM IS FURTHER NORTH ACROSS
MUCH OF NRN OHIO AS WELL AS THE SOUTH. WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS.
INSTABILITY LIMITED SO WILL HAVE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
03Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS IN THE 2-3K RANGE WILL AFFECT
FDY/MFD/CAK/YNG/ERI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE SCATTERING
AND LIFTING. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS...MAINLY AT
MFD/CAK/YNG BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH IT IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST. WILL UPDATE AS NEEDED IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS BUT BETTER
CHANCES ARE BETTER SOUTH OF THE AREA. OTHERWISE WESTERLY WIND
WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE TOWARDS 00Z AND BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY MOST
AREAS OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AGAIN BY 16Z TUES.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC


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