Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 291729
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
129 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO SKY GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE BLENDING BACK INTO THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TODAY WITH A PIECE OF
ENERGY ROTATING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THIS SHOULD MEAN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

IT WILL BE A COOL START TO THE DAY...ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES WERE
ABLE TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THE INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND EXPECTED
EXPANSION OF THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP HIGHS AT MOST LOCATIONS
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF 70. THIS IS 10 TO 14 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. THIS
PIECE OF ENERGY MAY BE A BIT STRONGER AND COULD GENERATE A BETTER
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SINCE THE
MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE SO COOL THERE WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP. THE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES MAY ALSO HELP TO GENERATE A
FEW FUNNEL CLOUD REPORTS. THESE TYPICALLY DO NOT REACH THE SURFACE
BUT NEED TO BE RESPECTED AND TAKE COVER IF ONE IS OBSERVED.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSES OVERNIGHT ON WEDNESDAY WE WILL THEN SEE
HOW MANY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM CLEVELAND TO ERIE.
THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE FROM ASHTABULA COUNTY INTO NW PA AS A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY FRIDAY. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BE ABLE TO TOUCH 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AND EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WITH BETTER
CHANCES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
DEEPER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALREADY BE SHIFTING EAST SO EXPECTING
SKIES TO BE PARTLY SUNNY. LOWERED POPS FOR SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD. THERE COULD STILL BE A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE EAST BUT ONLY A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE.
DESPITE THE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...THE AIRMASS IS NOT OVERLY COOL
WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 13-14C. TEMPERATURES WILL TYPICALLY BE
NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEPT VALUES IN THE MID 70S IN THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A LITTLE
MORE CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...WARMING TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGELY A VFR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS
LOWER MI WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN OH/NW PA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THIS MAY SPARK A SHOWER. HAVE REMOVED THE TS
MENTION. A STRONGER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH
BETTER SHOWER CHANCES AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER. WATERSPOUTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE LAKE STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS OF
035 TO 045 WILL COME AND GO WITH EACH TROUGH. CHANCES LOW FOR ANY
MVFR CEILINGS OR VSBY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT
SUBTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST WITH EACH TROUGH.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT THEN
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED AT 4 AM SINCE NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS HAVE ALLOWED WAVES TO DECREASE TO 1 TO 3
FEET. WINDS WILL BACK TO MORE WESTERLY TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH...DROPPING OFF BRIEFLY THIS
MORNING THEN INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AGAIN LATER TODAY. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

WAVES WILL INCREASE TO 1 TO 3 FEET ON WEDNESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL 4
FOOTERS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS AGAIN STARTING LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH TOMORROW. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN DECREASE WITH JUST ISOLATED
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KEC






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