Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 291145
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
645 AM EST MON DEC 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NATIONS MID SECTION
AND EXTEND INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER FOR THE DAY. SKIES CLEAR INLAND BUT
STRATUS CONTINUES TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL AND EAST
LAKESHORE INTO NWRN PA AS WINDS BRING IN MOISTURE OFF THE LAKE.
THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO/THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME
BREAKS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING SCT-BKN CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH HEATING. ALSO
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS. WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR...READINGS HAVE
DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 20S WHILE CLOUDY AREAS ARE CLOSER TO 30.


ORIGINAL...HIGH CLOUDS DRIFTING EAST OVERNIGHT HOWEVER SATELLITE
SHOWS STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST LAKESHORE
COUNTIES AND A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS LOWER MI AND NORTH OF
LAKE ERIE DRIFTING SOUTH. ELSEWHERE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR. FOR THE
EARLY MORNING AM EXPECTING STRATUS TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND AS LOW
LEVEL LOW COMES OFF THE LAKE. THE STRATUS ACROSS LOWER MI AND
CANADA NORTH OF LAKE ERIE HAS TENDED TO DISSIPATE ON THE SOUTHERN
SIDE SLOWING ITS PROGRESSION. FOLLOWING THE NAM 925MB RH ONE WOULD
EXPECT THE STRATUS TO EITHER MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OR DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA HOWEVER THERE ARE PLENTY OF HOLES AND WITH DRY AIR
ABOVE...ANY MIXING WOULD TEND TO ALLOW MORE HOLES TO DEVELOP. FOR
NOW AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WILL BEGIN WITH PC AND THEN TRANSITION TO
MC OR PS. GUIDANCE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S LOOK FINE WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS IT DROPS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GIVEN ITS TRACK
HOWEVER COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING -16 TO -18C BY WEDNESDAY 12Z. OUTSIDE OF
ANY LAKE EFFECT THE AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. GIVEN THE TEMP FALL HOWEVER WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
POPS ALL ALONG THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES FROM LORAIN CO EAST
BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO LIKELY ASHTABULA ERIE
CRAWFORD TUESDAY NIGHT AS LAKE-850MB TEMP DIFFERENCE BECOMES
ENOUGH FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY AS SHOWN ON BUFKIT KERI FORECAST
SOUNDING. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY. WINDS BACK
TO SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT TAKING ANY BANDS OFFSHORE. THURSDAY
NIGHT THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER TROF DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES
BRINGING MOISTURE TO THE AREA. WILL BRING CHANCE POPS BACK TO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES WITH HIGHEST POPS IN THE SNOWBELT. TEMPS
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS HAD SOME DIFFERENCES TO THEIR SOLUTIONS ON
SATURDAY WITH THE EUROPEAN BEING THE DRIEST COMPARED TO THE WET GFS
MODEL. LATEST RUN OF THE EUROPEAN AT 00Z IS NOW INDICATING A WETTER
SOLUTION IN LINE WITH THE GFS SO WILL BE LEANING IN THE DIRECTION OF
SPREADING PRECIPITATION INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. I
GUESS UNTIL I SEE SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS FOR WARMING THINGS
UP ON SATURDAY...I WILL NOT GET TOO CRAZY IN RAISING TEMPERATURES
FOR HIGHS. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FAIRLY BRISK SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY INDICATING TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN WE HAVE CURRENTLY FORECAST. SO...I GUESS I WOULD EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TRENDING UPWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IF MODELS ARE
PERSISTENT.

ONCE SURFACE LOW GOES BY ON SUNDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL RETURN
TO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY SET UP SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE LOW
PASSAGE...SOME COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

COLD AIR ADVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A GLANCING BLOW AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATUS BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500 FEET CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EAST LAKESHORE COUNTIES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING THIS CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SO NO REAL LONG STRETCH OF CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR CEILINGS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUIET TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK UP SPEED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INCREASE EVEN FURTHER. I WOULD IMAGINE THAT AT SOME POINT WE ARE
GOING TO NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY GALES BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF GALE POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. WINDS STAY PRETTY GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST
SOUTHWEST INTO THURSDAY WHEN THEY EVENTUALLY DIMINISH.
UNFORTUNATELY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED GOING
INTO FRIDAY AS WINDS DO NOT DIMINISH ENOUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY







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