Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 290559
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1259 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Note Aviation Discussion below corresponding to the 06z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...

Anticipate predominate MVFR ceilings overnight generally east of
U.S. 281 while isolated showers are expected near the Coast.
Isolated to scattered convection expected over the Coastal Bend
near the Coast during the morning/early afternoon hours Thursday.
Predominate VFR Thursday evening. Generally light E to S wind
overnight transitioning to moderate onshore Thursday
afternoon/early evening.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 902 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Water vapor imagery is showing drier air moving into the region
(eventually), with upper trough axis just off the coast. However,
evening sounding still showed PWATs just above 2 inches. With
smaller scale models keeping the rain out of the inland areas
until late (and very isolated), have decided to lower POPs for the
evening and overnight, but still mentioning rainfall over inland
areas mainly over the NE areas where better chances for rainfall
reside. Other than that, rest of the forecast is fine and did not
make any changes to the remainder of the forecast.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 626 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See Aviation discussion for 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...

Except for possible and temporary MVFR CIGS and/or VSBYS at KALI
and KVCT, should see VFR through the period. With winds forecast
to be shifting more to the south later tonight, that should
preclude any persistent lower clouds (still could have some
temporary conditions). Otherwise, think any showers during the
period will be confined to KCRP and KVCT terminals with not enough
confidence to have TEMPO and/or PROB30 for these locations. Winds
start from the south after sunrise and go SSE in the afternoon
with the sea-breeze. Overall, terminal forecasts are not too
different from climatology for terminals.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 347 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday night)...

Isolated to scattered convection over the Victoria Crossroads and
northern Coastal Bend continues to slowly sink southwestward.
These showers and storms will persist through the early evening
before diminishing with the loss of daytime heating. However,
additional redevelopment is expected tonight mainly over the Gulf
Waters and immediate coastal locations. Low tonight will be in
the mid 70s inland to upper 70s to lower 80s along the coast.

Mid level weakness will remain over South Texas on Thursday. The
weakness combined with PW values between 1.7 and 1.9 inches will
lead to isolated to scattered convection again tomorrow. Favored
locations will be over the Gulf Waters with only 20 pops over the
Brush Country. Similar to today, showers and storms should wane
with the loss of daytime heating A warming trend will begin tomorrow
with highs topping 100 over the western Brush Country and Rio
Grande Plains. Heat index values will also be an issue and a heat
advisory may be needed across the southern Coastal Bend and
perhaps Webb County.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...

Much drier conditions develop heading into the weekend and into next
week. Mid level ridging begins to build in from the western Gulf
drying the mid levels further and allowing mid level temperatures to
rise. H85 temperatures are expected to rise to 20C-23C. However, in
the lower levels, moisture remains with PWATs ranging at times
between 1.5 to 1.7 inches. As a result, continue to keep silent 5-10
POPs through next week. Although the increase subsidence should
hinder much in the way of convection, a rogue shower to thunderstorm
may be possible along the sea breeze during the afternoons, more so
into early next week.

Temperatures through the week will warm back into the low to mid 90s
across the coastal region and near the 100 degree mark across areas
generally west of Highway 281. Heat index values will also be on the
rise through the period, with the highest values Friday. Heat index
values on Friday may range from 110-112 across portions of South
Texas. A Heat Advisory may be required for Friday. Otherwise, heat
index values are expected to range from 105 to 109 through early
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    97  79  95  79  94  /  30  10  20  10  10
Victoria          94  77  94  78  94  /  30  10  20  10  10
Laredo           104  78 102  78 101  /  10   0  10  10  10
Alice            100  76  98  77  98  /  20  10  10  10  10
Rockport          91  82  92  82  92  /  30  20  20  10  10
Cotulla          102  76 102  77 101  /  10   0  10  10  10
Kingsville        98  78  97  78  96  /  20  10  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       92  83  92  82  92  /  30  20  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION



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