Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 250052
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
752 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...BASED ON SURROUNDING RADARS...CONVECTION HAS PUSHED
WEST AND DIMINISHED ACROSS THE CWA. UPPER DISTURBANCE AS SEEN ON
WV SATELLITE...IS CONTINUING TO MOVE SW WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER MID
LEVELS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE NE CWA. THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING
SHOWED SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS STILL IN PLACE AND MODELS PROG
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. AM EXPECTING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DVLP
OVER THE GULF WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRI MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE MID TX COAST AND A SHEAR AXIS ALOFT COMBINING WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE. OVERALL FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO
REMOVE MENTION OF EVENING PRECIP...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW

AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY ENDING WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TAF SITES THIS
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS AND A BLANKET OF HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS. ONLY EXCEPTION IS
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL
PLAINS FROM KALI-KBEA-KVCT AROUND DAYBREAK WITH VISIBILITIES
BRIEFLY DIPPING INTO THE MVFR RANGE. EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FRI AFTN AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE REMAINS OVERHEAD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...IDEAL SETUP TODAY FOR
DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS S TX AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...MID
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM...AND AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY/SURFACE
CONVERGENCE HAVE ALL COMBINED TO RESULT IN A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN HALF
OF CWA SHOULD DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE ACTIVITY MAY
PERSIST A COUPLE OF HOURS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE BRUSH
COUNTRY BEFORE EFFECTS FROM NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKE EFFECT. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OVERNIGHT ACROSS FAR NW ZONES. A WEAK TUTT LOW WILL SLIDE WEST
ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY. INTERACTION OF TUTT LOW WITH
MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES OF CONVECTION BEING ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY. MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH MAX
TEMPS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
CONDITIONS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZIER FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT OVERALL STILL NOT TOO STRONG.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A SUBTROPICAL RDG AXIS WL
REMAIN ANCHORED TO OUR NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY.  THE RESULT WL BE
TO MAINTAIN A DRY SUBSIDENT AIRMASS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MOST OF
THE FCST PD. THE RDG AXIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BEGIN
RETROGRADING BY WED AND THU. THIS WL BE IN RESPONSE TO A SEWD MOVING
S/WV ROUNDING THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH AXIS ANCHORED ACROSS THE
EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY.  A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSCTD WITH THIS
S/WV WL BEGIN APPROACHING THE CWA BY THURSDAY. FORCING WITH THIS
FEATURE AND POOLING OF HIGHER MOISTURE WL BEGIN TO INCREASE RAIN
CHANCES BY THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED FCST PD.
IN THE MEANTIME...TEMPS WL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL GIVEN
THE DRY AIRMASS.  BASICALLY WENT CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE WITH TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    74  97  76  95  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74  98  75  97  76  /  10  20  10  10  10
LAREDO            79 103  80 104  79  /  30  20  10  10  10
ALICE             74 101  75  99  77  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          78  92  80  90  80  /  10  20  10  10  10
COTULLA           75 101  76 102  77  /  20  20  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        75  99  77  97  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       79  91  80  90  80  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM




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