Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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316
FXUS64 KCRP 031121 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
621 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF FLUCTUATION BETWEEN MVFR/VFR THIS MRNG AT ALI-
CRP...BUT OVERALL TREND SHOULD KEEP VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
BKN-OVC CIGS WILL LIFT AND BECOME FEW-SCT THIS AFTN/EVNG. OVERALL
N-LY WIND 5-10KTS...WITH A PERIOD IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVNG OF WINDS
VEERING MORE OUT OF THE NE AND E.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY INTO
SOUTH TEXAS. PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL WITH COMPUTER MODELS
REPORTING LESS THAN 1 INCH BY THIS EVENING. MOISTURE TRAPPED
BETWEEN 3K-7K FEET ALONG WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CONTINUE
THE MORNING STRATUS. HOWEVER WILL EXPECT ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DEVELOPING BY THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER TODAY IN THE
UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS...TO
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY...AND EVEN WARMER WEDNESDAY
WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S AREA-WIDE. TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
EVEN DIP INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE LOW LYING AREAS BETWEEN
VICTORIA TO ALICE TO COTULLA.

FOR BEACH GOERS...TIDES CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH ALONG THE BEACHES AND
WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS. COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. FURTHER NORTH FROM
PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR...HAVE REMOVED THE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY.

IN ADDITION TO THE COASTAL FLOOD...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
REMAINS POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHERN BEACHES FROM BAFFIN BAY
TO PORT ARANSAS...WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FROM PORT
ARANSAS TO PORT O`CONNOR.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...WARMING TREND WILL
OCCUR FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATES
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW OVER THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION SUNDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
COASTAL PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MOISTURE/CLOUDS INCREASING BY
SUNDAY. POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF MEXICO
INTERACTING WITH HIGHER MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
COULD BRING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. WILL ONLY
SHOW 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE POPS THIS FAR OUT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    81  60  85  60  89  /  10  10   0   0   0
VICTORIA          79  54  84  57  86  /  10  10   0   0   0
LAREDO            83  61  90  64  94  /  10  10   0   0   0
ALICE             82  57  87  58  91  /  10  10   0   0   0
ROCKPORT          81  62  84  64  87  /  10  10   0   0   0
COTULLA           82  56  88  59  93  /  10  10   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        82  57  86  60  90  /  10  10   0   0   0
NAVY CORPUS       80  63  82  65  86  /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN PATRICIO.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

CB/85...AVIATION



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