Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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628
FXUS64 KCRP 241726
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1226 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.DISCUSSION... Update for 18z aviation section.

&&

.AVIATION... Isolated showers are noted over from ALI eastward
this afternoon, but mainly north of CRP. Could still see a brief
shower at both ALI and CRP, however best chance at showers and
storms will be closer to VCT terminal. Think thunder chances are
minimal for both ALI and CRP though will not remove mention of
VCTS for CRP completely. Will have mainly VFR conditions for ALI
and LRD while MVFR conditions will continue at least at times for
other sites. Fog is then likely to develop overnight, being most
impactful at ALI and VCT with IFR to LIFR conditions possible.
MVFR to IFR conditions possible at CRP. Gusty southerly winds will
continue, especially at CRP TAF site. Winds for all sites should
decrease this evening. Winds at LRD will shift to the north this
afternoon while other sites will remain south until early Saturday
morning. Improving conditions are expected Saturday with VFR
conditions from mid- morning on.



&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 1109 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Forecast remains pretty well on track with showers developing over
northeastern zones this morning. Monitoring LAPS soundings for
CAP strength. Still have quite strong CAP at CRP with somewhat
weaker CAP at VCT. Convective temperature from LAPS sounding
matches current high temperatures forecast, so wouldn`t be
surprised to see a few thunderstorms develop northeast this
afternoon. The CRP CAP is looking like it will be difficult to
break, thus expect mainly shower activity. Frontal boundary
remains west of the area, but likely sink into western zones this
afternoon. Additionally, strong winds above the surface continue
to mix down through the coastal bend with gusts around 35 mph.
This will continue through the early afternoon before the
strongest winds shift off to the east.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 414 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...

Satellite imagery shows the mid to upper level low over southeast
Colorado. This system is expected to move east-southeast to north
central Oklahoma by 00Z Saturday. The southern extension of the
associated cold front was located east of the Permian Basin to the
Big Bend early this morning. Appears the cold front will be
slower to move into the region and will stall over the coastal
plains this afternoon. This will allow stronger winds/breezy
conditions to continue for the coastal plains today. Strong
inversion will remain in place through the morning hours, so kept
thunder out of the forecast. Low level jet of 50 knots over the
coastal areas early this morning will move to the east and weaken
some with the approach of the boundary. Amount of cloud cover over
the region leads to uncertainty on amount of instability that can
be realized later today. Hi-res models/CAMs are not too excited
on convective potential this afternoon with a weak broken line of
storms pushing through mainly the northeast part of the forecast
area. But latest HRRR/RAP models indicate there could be a window
of opportunity for strong storms to occur this afternoon from the
northern Coastal Bend to the Victoria Crossroads. Mixed layer CAPE
values are forecast to be around 1500 J/kg along with 50 knots of
0-6 km shear. Both models show weakening CIN from Beeville to
Victoria from 20-00Z. Even though SPC moved Marginal risk of
severe to the northeast, will mention possibility of storms with
gusty wind potential for areas northeast of Interstate 37 this
afternoon. Kept PoPs similar to previous forecast with likely PoPs
in the Victoria area for today.

The upper low will move to the Ozarks by Saturday morning. Mid
level subsidence and drying will move across the region tonight
into Saturday. Enough boundary layer moisture will remain over the
coastal plains and eastern Brush Country for fog to develop late
tonight and continue through early Saturday morning. Weak front
pushes through the northern part of the area Saturday morning
before becoming diffuse. Onshore flow will develop by the
afternoon for the coastal plains.

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...

Active pattern across the lower 48 through the medium range with a
series of fast moving systems rippling across the country.  First
short wave Sunday has little to no moisture to work with so other
than an isolated shower in our northeast areas expect no rain.  Weak
surface boundary trailing this system will wash out over the area
Monday with strong southerly flow returning Tuesday as stronger short
wave digs into the southern Rockies.  This second wave has more
moisture to work with along with better forcing for lift so rain
chances will be better. Highest rain chances, capped at 40% for now,
over the northeast in the deepest moisture.  PoPs then tapered back
to 20 further south.  The Wednesday system has a chance to
overachieve rain-wise if it digs just a little further southeast
which would increase chances of a more solid convective line to
affect the area. Another wave then digs into the southwest late in
the week with another increase in moisture and southerly flow ahead
of it.  As for temperatures it looks like no end in sight to the
unseasonably warm to hot conditions.  WPC temperatures remain in
line with blended guidance and made only minor changes.

MARINE...

With slower movement of the frontal boundary, moderate to strong
onshore flow will persist through the day. Extended SCA for the
bays and nearshore waters through 00Z Saturday, and extended SCA
for offshore waters to 06Z Saturday. Winds will weaken overnight
with seas slowly subsiding. A weak onshore flow will develop by
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    64  86  67  85  69  /  10  10  10  10  10
Victoria          61  83  64  85  68  /  20  10  10  10  10
Laredo            60  92  67  96  68  /   0   0   0  10   0
Alice             60  90  65  91  67  /  10   0   0  10  10
Rockport          69  82  70  81  71  /  20  10  10  10  10
Cotulla           55  89  63  94  65  /   0   0   0   0  10
Kingsville        62  89  66  89  68  /  10  10  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       68  83  69  80  71  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening For the
     following zones: Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port
     Aransas...Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas
     out 20 NM...Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda
     Ship Channel out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday For the following
     zones: Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60
     NM...Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel
     from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

PZ/83...AVIATION



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