Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 300556

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1256 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...Note Aviation Discussion below.


.AVIATION...Mixture of MVFR/VFR conditions early this morning with
MVFR conditions ownig to ceilings and/or visibility restrictions
from isolated/scattered showers/thunderstorms (with precipitation
mainly east of U.S. 281.) MVFR conditions owing to scattered
showers/thunderstorms expected areawide this afternoon/early
evening. VFR conditions early Tonight followed by a transition to
MVFR ceilings toward the end of the TAF period.




Overall, the forecast is doing fairly well. However, tide levels
at Bob Hall Pier are showing between 1.2 and 1.4 feet higher than
predicted tides over the last couple of hours. Current predicted
astronomical high tide at Port Aransas is 416 AM (Bob Hall Pier
about the same), with a predicted level around 0.8 feet MSL.
Combine this with the above normal values will be somewhere near
or above 2 feet. Considering that the high tide is occurring
overnight, will issue the Coastal Flood Advisory for the coastal
areas near and South of Port Aransas (San Patricio, Nueces, and
Kleberg Counties). Since rest of forecast overall is doing fine
(POPs out west may be a bit high but for now will let that go),
have issued updates already. No notable changes to the marine
forecast expected at this time (if that changes will issue another
forecast discussion).



See 00Z Aviation discussion.


Main forecast challenge is putting in the showers/possible thunder
with as much accuracy as possible without having an extra-long
terminal forecast for each location. Based on some of the model
output as well as rainfall climatology with a tropical airmass,
think that there will be a brief lull in the activity by this
evening over the terminals, then will begin to see some showers
offshore mainly tonight/overnight and some of these could get into
the KCRP and KVCT terminal before 12Z. As a result, will have
TEMPO groups (SHRA) for each after 08Z (thunder not as likely).
There were some MVFR/near IFR ceilings earlier this morning, and
we could have that again if the winds back to the north again
(which is being forecast). Think IFR is less likely due to the
fact that the winds will not be north which probably caused those
lower clouds to develop. After sunrise, begin putting tempo/prob30
in the forecast starting at the eastern-most terminals AOA 14Z and
spreading the rain chances east. MVFR conditions will go more VFR
(but will have ceilings) AOA 16Z outside of convection. Think most
of the convection will be showers in the morning (do not want to
put too much thunder in, as believe thunder will be more likely
later in the terminal period). Generally have thunder in the
terminals (except KCRP) in the afternoon when daytime heating can
help generate. Winds back to the NE tonight and generally light,
become more east during the day on Tuesday.


SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday night)...

Isolated to scattered showers will continue this afternoon and
early evening across South Texas. There may be a brief lull in
activity later this evening, but rain chances will persist during
the short term.

Weak upper level low will approach the Middle Texas coast later
tonight into Tuesday. Increased lift along with deep tropical
moisture (PWs at or above 2 inches) will result in additional
chances for convection across the area. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms may redevelop later tonight over the Gulf Waters and
then move inland during the day. Pops were kept at 50 percent for
Tuesday. Some of the showers and storms will be capable of
producing moderate to brief heavy downpours. Cloud cover and rain
chances will keep temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Rain chances will continue Tuesday night, with favored locations
across the southern and western parts of the area. Will keep 20
pops across the north to the 40 percent across the southern and
western areas. Slightly drier air may filter in from the north
which will begin to diminish rain chances towards the latter part
of the short term.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...

Mid level low continues to shift south-southeast along the Texas
coast Wednesday as mid level ridging builds in from the northwest.
Mid level heights do not increase much, but overall, drier air moves
into the region with the beginnings of downsloping. As a result,
kept lower rain chances beginning Wednesday. Most activity should
remain as thick cloud coverage with showers or light rain through
Thursday, but due to lingering midlevel energy, maintained the
thunder wording. At the surface, models continue to slide high
pressure in from the northeast late in the week. Recent model runs
have now pooled more moisture along the southern extent of the front
which should be enough to at least mention a slight chance for rain
Friday and Saturday as it approaches the region. With the lack of
ideal northerly flow aloft, this front is not expected to bring
cooler temperatures nor northerly winds. In fact, generally east-
northeasterly winds early in the week will return out of the
southeast as the boundary moves closer to the area. Lingering
moisture available will keep slight rain chances through Monday.
Temperatures overall will warm through period into the mid to upper

Tropical Depression 9...approx 170 miles west-southwest of Key West currently expected to have minimal impacts across South
Texas. At this increase in long period swell may enhance
the rip current risk late this week along Gulf-facing beaches.
Please see National Hurricane Center products for the latest
forecast information on Tropical Depression 9.


Corpus Christi    90  76  95  77  95  /  50  30  20  10  20
Victoria          88  74  95  74  95  /  50  20  20  10  20
Laredo            91  75  96  77  96  /  50  40  20  10  20
Alice             90  73  95  74  96  /  50  30  20  10  20
Rockport          89  77  93  78  93  /  50  30  20  10  20
Cotulla           90  76  95  75  96  /  50  30  20  10  20
Kingsville        90  74  95  75  96  /  50  30  30  10  20
Navy Corpus       87  78  91  78  93  /  50  30  20  10  20


TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon For the
     following zones: Kleberg...Nueces...San Patricio.




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