Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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000
FXUS64 KCRP 312018
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
318 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...CONCUR WITH
DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT WITH REGARD TO THE UPPER PATTERN WHICH DEPICT
A QUASI-STATIONARY RIDGE OVER THE SWRN/WRN CONUS AND AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS...WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING ACRS THE
PLAINS/ERN TX. THIS PATTERN WL ALLOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY (CURRENTLY
OVER CNTRL TX PER MSAS MSLP/THETA-E PATTERN) TO ENTER THE CWA BY
EARLY FRIDAY THEN EVENTUALLY STALL/MEANDER OVR THE CWA DRG THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. GOES SOUNDER DATA REVEAL COPIOUS
MSTR/HIGH PWAT VALUES ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT. LATEST LAPS
ANALYSIS-BASED SOUNDINGS DEPICT PWAT VALUES GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF
1.75-2 INCHES OVER THE NRN CWA. EXPECT THE FOREGOING UPPER
SHORTWAVES TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA/MSA DRG THE PERIOD. HWR...THE
COMBINATION OF COPIOUS MSTR/SFC FRONTAL FORCING AND ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY WL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTION. ANTICIPATE ISOLD
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE NRN CWA THIS EVENING/EARLY TNGT.
ADDITIONAL ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
DESPITE COPIOUS MSTR/QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY/SLOW EXPECTED
STORM MOTIONS...THE NAM SOUNDINGS DONT QUITE DEPICT A SATURATED
VERTICAL COLUMN IN THE 0-4KM WARM LAYER (SUFFICIENT FOR COLLISION
COALESCENCE) AND CAPE VALUE COULD EXCEED 2000 J/KG (SIGNIFICANT
PORTION OF PCPN POTENTIALLY IN SOLID FORM) AND THUS WL NOT CERTAIN
REGARDING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL. SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER MAX TEMPS
EXPECTED FRIDAY OWING TO GREATER MSTR/PCPN.

&&

.MARINE...THERMALLY-GENERATED SCEC WIND ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
EVENING OVER THE SRN BAYS/SRN NEARSHORE WATERS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A QUASI-STATIONARY WEAK
FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS S TX ON SAT. MODEL SOLNS VARY ON
PLACEMENT OF THE BDRY BUT ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH IT NEAR OR
ACROSS S TX. PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES ARE ALSO PROGD TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH SAT. MODELS ALSO SHOW MOD INSTABILITY. THE
MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION IS THAT THE MODELS PROG THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY E PLACING IT MORE DIRECTLY OVER S
TX. THINK THAT DESPITE THE HIGH ALOFT...THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTY FOR SCT CONVECTION
ON SAT AND COULD STILL SEE ISOLATED HVY RAIN ALONG THE BDRY WITH ANY
TRAINING/SLOW MOVG STORMS. BY SUN THE FCST BECOMES INCREASINGLY
UNCERTAIN. LATEST RUNS SHOW THAT AN INVERTED SFC TROF IS DRAPED
ACROSS S TX WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BDRY JUST N OF THE AREA.
REGARDLESS IF IT IS THE FRONT OR AN INVERTED TROF...SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO ISOL/SCT CONVECTION ON SUN. AN ONSHORE FLOW
BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED MON-WED WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING ACROSS S TX FOR ISOL SEA BREEZE CONVECTION. COOLER TEMPS
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE INCREASED
MOISTURE/PRECIP THEN A WARMING TREND RESUMES NEXT WEEK AS A DRIER
AIRMASS DVLPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    77  93  76  93  74  /  10  20  30  30  20
VICTORIA          76  92  74  91  71  /  40  30  30  30  20
LAREDO            79 100  79  99  78  /  10  40  30  30  20
ALICE             76  96  75  94  73  /  10  30  30  30  20
ROCKPORT          80  86  78  89  78  /  20  30  30  30  20
COTULLA           77  96  77  95  73  /  20  30  30  30  20
KINGSVILLE        76  96  76  94  74  /  10  20  30  30  20
NAVY CORPUS       80  87  79  88  78  /  10  20  30  30  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM




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