Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KCRP 131431
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
931 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED ZONES TO REMOVE MENTION OF MORNING FOG. REST
OF FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF CONVECTION. AN
UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN ON WV SATELLITE JUST S OF LA MOVG SW. MODELS
PROG THIS FEATURE TO REMAIN JUST N TO NE OF THE CWA TODAY WHICH
KEEPS MOST OF THE CWA UNDER WEAK RIDGING...THUS KEEPING MOST OF
THE CWA DRY TODAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...FOG WILL BE A CONCERN AT CRP/VCT AND DENSE FOG AT ALI FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO...AND SHOULD MIX OUT BY 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING...BUT A FEW GUSTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AROUND 20 KNOTS AT ALI/CRP DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH AROUND 00Z TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
LIGHT WINDS AGAIN THIS UPCOMING TONIGHT MAY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPING
AGAIN...AND HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR VSBYS AT ALI/VCT AFTER 09Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE BEEN
A LITTLE SLOWER TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING AS OPPOSED TO
YESTERDAY. BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S OVER THE
EASTERN SECTIONS...WILL KEEP FOG IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 15Z. A
FEW STREAMER SHOWERS ARE ALL READY LOCATED JUST BEYOND THE MARINE
ZONES SO WILL CARRY 20 POPS THROUGH THE MORNING OVER THE GULF
WATERS. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES TODAY ALONG
THE COAST...AND DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE SEA BREEZE MAY
BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
CARRY ISOLATED 10 POPS WITH A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
COASTAL BEND AND FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE BRUSH COUNTRY.
OTHERWISE...YET ANOTHER WARM DAY CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 100S OUT WEST TO MIDDLE
90S OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. SIMILAR TEMPS TO
TODAY WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN CONUS...WITH AN UPPER LVL SHEAR AXIS OVER
SOUTH TEXAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. AS TROUGH MOVES FURTHER
EAST SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION. DURING THE
END OF THE WEEK AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS
TEXAS...BRINGING DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE REGION. ECMWF CONTINUES TO
BE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH
THE GFS SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT AS WELL. EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BEGINNING
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUED THEM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER TEXAS THEN IN WAKE OF THROUGH AND
ENDING RAIN CHANCES FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW HUNDREDS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND MID TO
UPPER 90S EAST. AS TROUGH APPROACHES AND MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE
REGION AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BACK BACK DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES.

ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER WEST TEXAS. SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    93  73  93  75  96  /  10  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          94  73  95  74  95  /  10  10  10  10  10
LAREDO           101  77 101  78 101  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             96  72  96  74  98  /  10  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          87  77  90  79  90  /  10  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           99  73 100  76 101  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        94  72  95  75  97  /  10  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       87  77  90  78  90  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.