Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 190915
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
415 AM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)...

Looks like rain prospects for the inland areas remain little to
none, and that is what will be forecast rain-wise for the next two
days. Looking at the moisture advection in the boundary layer and
the shorter-range models (mainly TTU and NSSL), any convection will
be very light and isolated. Could put a mention of rain around
Calhoun County where any precip may occur today, but prefer to hold
off and let it be handled with short-term forecasts since activity
will be light and limited. Drier mid level air comes in tonight so
not expecting much even in the gulfmex. For Sunday, moisture does
get a bit better offshore and have kept the 20 POP offshore;
otherwise better moisture advection is farther south and NE so
prefer to again keep it dry (could add rain on the day shift or on
my next mid shift but unlikely POPS will be 20 percent at this
time). Until then, will keep Sunday dry.

Temperature-wise am expecting maybe a degree or two cooler today
most areas away from the coast as per model 2 meter and 850mb
temperatures. Maybe a few more clouds on Sunday will knock another
degree or two off the maximum temperatures, but it will still be
warm and humid. Looks like the heat indices will be 105 to 109 many
areas today and Sunday with 110 degrees again around Kingsville and
isolated locations near the coast (like NAS Corpus). Once again,
will handle with SPS which worked out nicely on Friday. Lows Sunday
morning close to Superblend values (model has been doing good for
the last couple of days).

BOY020 is reporting 2 foot swells with 6 second periods. Models
indicating these swell periods will go to 9 or 10 seconds this
afternoon, although it appears swell heights may only be a foot or
so. However, with winds 120-140 degrees and 10 to 15 knots, along
with approach of new moon, this may be just enough to bring the rip
current risk to moderate (borderline). With it being the weekend and
already have called for moderate rip current risk, will maintain the
moderate risk (and continue it through Sunday).

&&

.MARINE (Today through Sunday)...

Should have no significant issues on the waters, with weak to
moderate southerly flow continuing and seas 2 to 3 feet. Isolated
showers this morning and perhaps a bit more activity offshore
Sunday morning with a bit better moisture available.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...

A change will finally occur in the pattern over the region with the
upcoming week. A TUTT low currently across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico will gradually progress westward towards the region early
next week.  Moisture will increase across the region, with PWAT
values climbing back to around 2.0 inches over the coastal area
on Monday. Models have slightly slowed down the westward
progression of the the TUTT low, but it will still approach the
coastal zones by Monday, lingering offshore. This will provide a
favorable pattern for isolated to scattered convection to develop
Monday through the middle of the week. Further increases of
moisture and better rain chances may develop during the mid to
late week with the potential progression of Tropical Storm Harvey
after it passes the Yucatan Peninsula. Based on the considerable
uncertainty with where this system may track late in the period,
have kept PoPs more of a broad brushed slight chance to low end
chance for showers and storms over the mid to late week.

The upcoming week will also bring lower afternoon temperatures than
the region has seen over the past week.  However, afternoon
temperatures will only "cool" to near normal values (as opposed to
the above normal temps that have been ongoing) during the early to
mid week.  If rain coverage increases more late in the week, could
certainly see more below normal (though still warm) temperatures
late in the week. Heat index values between 105 and 109 will
continue to be possible across portions of the region each
day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    97  78  97  77  95  /  10  10  10  10  30
Victoria          99  77  99  76  96  /  10   0  10  10  40
Laredo           104  79 103  78 101  /   0   0   0  10  10
Alice            101  76 101  75  98  /  10   0  10  10  20
Rockport          94  82  94  80  92  /  10  10  10  20  40
Cotulla          103  77 102  76 100  /   0   0   0  10  10
Kingsville       100  77 100  77  97  /  10   0  10  10  20
Navy Corpus       95  83  95  81  92  /  10  10  10  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

GW/86...SHORT TERM
LB/84...LONG TERM



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