Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KCRP 280134
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
834 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The 00Z CRP sounding profile indicated a slightly drier airmass
than previous 12hrs, but PWAT is still 2 inches. Model soundings
prog 2 inch PWAT through tonight. Due to the high pressure aloft,
am not expecting any significant precip across the CWA except for
over the coastal waters where isol...at times sct...convection has
been ongoing all evening due to low level moisture convergence.
Will continue with the slight chance along the coast and chc pops
across the offshore waters. Otherwise, cloud cover will continue
to slowly decrease, but will remain mostly cloudy much of the
night along with mild and cool temps. Overall, forecast looks on
track with no major changes at this time.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 613 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...

See aviation discussion below for the 00Z TAFs.

AVIATION...

A few very weak showers continue across the Coastal Bend but are
expected to diminish and not have any aviation impacts. CIGS
across S TX have begun to lift to VFR levels except for LRD where
MVFR CIGS are expected to linger until around 06Z. VFR conditions
are expected for all of S TX late tonight and through Wed. Light
northerly winds are expected to persist through much of the TAF
period.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 247 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday night)...

Guidance PoPs continue to be elevated due to the proximity of
higher moisture near the region. Deeper moisture will remain over
the coastal waters where isolated to scattered shwoers will be
possible tonight into Wednesday. Only kept slight chance PoPs over
the Coastal Bend for possible weak showers. The mid to upper level
ridge will be over the region through the forecast period. Weak
isentropic downglide in the 300-310K layer Wednesday will lead to
diminishing clouds in the afternoon. With partly cloudy skies and
light winds Wednesday night...lows could be in the mid 60s over
northern portions of the forecast area.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...

Max temps try to increase Thursday as mid level ridging strengthens
slightly. However..another push of stronger surface high pressure is
prog to build into S TX by late in the day and late week. Breezy
conditions are expected along the coast and offshore Thursday
evening as drier air from the sfc to H8 filters into the region
from the north. Only cirrus is expected late this week /possibly
dense at times/. Surface high moves ESE across Texas over the
weekend resulting in significantly cooler min temps /60s most areas
with isolated pockets of upper 50s inland/ and pleasant daytime
conditions /highs in the 80s and low humidity/. High pressure shifts
east early next week resulting in modest low level moisture
advection...and increase in cumulus...and warmer temperatures. No
rain chances currently expected late this week through early next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    70  88  73  91  68  /  20  10  10   0   0
Victoria          67  89  67  90  60  /  10  10  10   0   0
Laredo            69  87  72  91  67  /  10  10  10   0   0
Alice             69  89  70  93  64  /  10  10  10   0   0
Rockport          70  86  73  89  69  /  20  10  10   0   0
Cotulla           68  88  68  90  62  /  10  10  10   0   0
Kingsville        70  89  71  93  67  /  20  10  10   0   0
Navy Corpus       72  86  75  89  71  /  20  10  10   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.