Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 250015

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
715 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...Note aviation discussion below.


.AVIATION...A transition to predominate MVFR ceilings expected
overnight. This condition is expected to continue through the late
morning/early afternoon hours Wednesday. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated near the end of the TAF period
generally west of State Road 16. Generally onshore flow expected
during the period.



SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...

Water vapory imagery shows the extent of the mid and upper-level
ridging moving into our region with deep southwesterly flow in
place. Continued moderate southeasterly winds have pumped dewpoints
into the mid to upper-70s across a better part of our region and
even being under the influence of the large scale ridging there a
few extremely isolated pop-up showers being shown just across our
northern tier counties. Expecting only trace amounts out of these
showers so we will continue with the mostly dry forecast this
evening. Otherwise stratus will once again develop over the interior
parts of the CWA late tonight as continued onshore flow keeps us
moist beneath the inversion. Overnight lows once again on the muggy
side with mid to upper-70s expected.

Ridging continues to move through the region so a majority of the day
remains dry. One exception may be across the Rio Grande Plains with
a bit of a weakness in the ridge as an embedded mid-level vort max
slides through during the afternoon hours. We continue to carry the
slight chance POPs given the strength of the cap we should have in
place but it is rather hard to ignore the strength of the vort max
and the amount of instability. If the skies can break out quicker
during the afternoon hours the better the chances will be for
isolated to scattered convection. Highs once again upper-80s east to
into the upper-90s west. Heat index values will continue to be an
issue with values reaching into the 105 to 109 degrees range across
the west to around 100 degrees over the east.

Unfortunately another round of heavier rain is expected to commence
late Wednesday night into Thursday morning from west to east as a
more potent mid-level shortwave trough nears. We have increased POPs
into the likely range Thursday morning given the anomaly of the
PWATs and the amount of elevated instability to work with. The
longterm section will have more detail on Thursday`s event, which
looks to be the brunt of the action.

Tides and Coastal Flooding...At this time we are not expecting highs
on Wednesday morning to be an issue, however current departures are
still running around 1.1 to 1.3 feet above astronomical. If these
anomalies hold we could come close to clipping the 2 feet mean sea
level/minor thresholds along the Gulf facing beaches. We will
continue to monitor the situation.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...Active weather is to begin
the period with an upper lvl storm system generating convection
across much of the region during the late week.  Thursday the upper
lvl low will shift east from the Baja Peninsula into the desert
southwest, with numerous embedded disturbances passing aloft across
the region. Upper low/trough will continue moving further to the
east Friday.  An upper jet will also nose closer to the region with
divergent flow aloft. Thursday to early Friday PWAT values will be
near +2SD again across portions of the region. Concern is increasing
for the potential of another heavy rain event Thursday, continuing
into Friday.  With areas that have already received several inches
of rain lately, it would not take much more to see flash flooding
quickly develop.  Some model guidance is indicating potentially
higher QPF amounts of 2-3 inches across the northern tier of
counties. Leaned on WPC QPF for forecast, which is not quite as high
at this time. There is still some uncertainty in the possibility of
heavy rain forecast, but a flash flood watch may be needed as this
event approaches. In addition to the heavy rain threat, strong
storms may develop with high CAPE values and support aloft.  POPS
will decrease from west to east on Friday as trough passes, with
lingering slight chance to low end chance PoPs by Friday night. The
next shortwave trough begins swinging into the western CONUS over
the weekend into early next week, and with residual moisture across
the region, lower end POPs have been maintained over the weekend.
Slightly higher chance POPs are called for by the end of the period
as the next system digs into northern Mexico.


Tonight - Wednesday Night...Moderate onshore flow continues
tonight into Wednesday as the pressure gradient continues to
tighten. Will continue the SCEC conditions over the southern bays
and Gulf waters tonight and more than likely again by Wednesday
afternoon. Seas will continue to remain elevated around 5 to
possible 6 feet through Wednesday night.


Corpus Christi    79  88  78  87  78  /  10  10  30  40  40
Victoria          75  89  75  86  75  /  10  10  30  60  40
Laredo            78  96  77  93  76  /  10  20  60  40  50
Alice             77  92  77  88  76  /  10  10  30  50  40
Rockport          79  87  78  85  79  /  10  10  20  40  40
Cotulla           76  95  75  89  74  /  10  20  60  50  50
Kingsville        78  92  77  89  77  /  10  10  30  40  40
Navy Corpus       79  88  79  85  79  /  10  10  20  40  40





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