Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 261428
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1028 AM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A long wave trough over the the Great Lakes and eastern Canada
will deepen across the region today into Tuesday. This feature
will keep it cooler than normal into Wednesday. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be across the region today and
Tuesday, especially across the northern part of the Keystone
state during the afternoon hours. A warm up and return of
higher humidity levels will occur on Thursday, as high pressure
moves off the east coast. While temperatures will average
near to above normal for the second half of the week, there
will be occasional showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
Those hot LE water temps are again bubbling convection as any
December day would, but the June temps and moisture are leading
to much taller showers and thunderstorms. These storms should
continue to drift inland but may decrease in coverage slightly
as they hit the temporarily stable land. Cu already popping up
at 10am and destabilization should form additional/numerous
showers and a few thunderstorms through the afternoon. The
heating may pop them first off the higher ground and where
moisture is highest - mainly where it may have rained
yesterday. Dewpoints will dip back to the 40s in lots of places
this afternoon, so the brief showers may barely make the ground
wet as they move along steadily. Coverage will be greatest in
the nrn mtns where 70-80 POPs have been painted. Timing will be
centered around 22Z in the NC/Cent mtns with a bell curve
around then earlier in the NW and later in the NE/EC counties.
Temps will be a little cooler than Sun and certainly below
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Showers should diminish with loss of heating but they could
linger a few hours after sunset in the NE/Poconos. Another
round of nocturnal-mid-lake-convergence-driven-convection could
POP up. But, guidance also whips a strong short wave trough
through the upper Great Lakes and pushes showers and
thunderstorms over the second half of the night into wrn PA.
These may reach into the Laurels/Alleghenies by morning and have
placed low chc POPs there. But, most of the area will be clear
and cool off well. It will likely be cooler tonight and Mon AM.

Tuesday may hold a few less showers in the aftn with the
negative influence of the rising heights behind the strong short
wave passing overhead in the morning. But, we could have
showers during a longer period (earlier) in the day than the
last few days. The afternoon heating and cool air aloft will
still generate showers in the nrn tier. Max temps will be
similar to Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The trough will lift out and leave a more zonal pattern by
Wed. As the high moves off the east coast by Thursday, a
southwest flow of warmer air will work into the area.

Expect max/min temps to rise above normal levels for the
weekend along with an increase in convective activity -
especially over NW half of CWA. Convection will be more
scattered over the SE.

Still a tendency to have an abnormally strong jet across
the northwest states so far this warm season. While this
may allow a warm up at times, the weather pattern is very
active for late June.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR will dominate the pattern today with winds picking up by
late morning, early afternoon. Showers will also develop
this afternoon, mainly across the north. I have included
categorical SHRA during the mid/late day hours though conditions
should predominately remain VFR with perhaps short periods of
MVFR in showers.

.OUTLOOK...
Tue...Mainly VFR, but scattered afternoon SHRA/TSRA north.
Wed...VFR.
Thu-Fri...Mainly VFR, but isolated/scattered afternoon SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KCCX radar work should be wrapping up later today - which would
be slightly ahead of schedule. There will be outages today as
alignments are completed after the installation of the first of
4 major service-life extension upgrades. Complete return to
regular service may be late today if all goes well with the
checks/alignments.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Martin/RXR
AVIATION...Dangelo/Ceru
EQUIPMENT...



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