Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCTP 261424
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
924 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A QUIET WEATHER DAY TO THE AREA AND
AGAIN SATURDAY. A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS BY SUNDAY. COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS...WHICH WILL FEEL QUITE COLD CONSIDERING HOW WARM
IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SOME LOW CLOUDS REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION ACROSS THE
NW HALF OF FCST AREA. FINALLY THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE THAT MOST
OF NOT ALL OF THESE CLOUDS WILL SUCCUMB TO SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING
AND WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO THE BRIGHTEST DAY MOST AREAS HAVE SEEN
IN NEARLY 2 WEEKS.

WITH MOST AREAS SEEING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
WITH CLEAR SKIES WILL SEE RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...BUT EVEN
WITH THE LONG NIGHTS AND NEARLY CALM WINDS...LOWS WILL STRUGGLE
TO EVEN FALL MUCH BELOW FREEZING IN SOME AREAS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. QUITE MILD 850 MB TEMPS ON SATURDAY COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN RISE 20+ DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS
THE WEST AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LATE SAT
NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTH OF CWA LATE
IN THE DAY WITH COLDER AIR ADVECTING IN. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SUN
NIGHT AS SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK S STREAM WAVE RIDING ALONG THE
FRONT WHICH COULD BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION TO THE SE
ZONES SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. WITH 850 TEMPS COOLING A MIX OF
R/S IS POSSIBLE IF THIS WAVE DOES INDEED DEVELOP AND TRACK FAR
ENOUGH NORTH. OTHERWISE WILL SEE COLDER AIR SLOWLY ADVECT INTO THE
CWA IN A FEW WAVES NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A RETURN TO TEMPERATURES
WE WOULD EXPECT FOR THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER...WHICH WILL FEEL
COLD AFTER THE MILD WEATHER WE HAVE SEEN THIS MONTH...BUT REALLY
NOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY. NO ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEMS EXPECTED
AS S STREAM ENERGY STAYS SOUTH OF THE STATE. GUIDANCE SHOWING A
MORE ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE
TRACK UNCERTAIN AT THE TIME GIVEN THAT IT IS STILL OVER A WEEK
OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

SATELLITE SHOWS THE LAST OF THE LOW CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE WESTERN
1/3 OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE CEILINGS ARE IN THE
1500-3000` RANGE. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...WITH ALL TERMINALS EITHER
REMAINING OR BECOMING VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. BRADFORD WILL
LIKELY IMPROVE LAST AS THEY ARE PRETTY MUCH IN THE MIDDLE OF WHAT
IS LEFT OF THE SMALL AREA OF LOW CLOUDS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR REDUCED CONDITIONS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA..

OUTLOOK...

SAT...VFR.

SAT NITE-SUN...MVFR/IFR WITH SCATTERED RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.

MON-TUE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROSS/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...ROSS/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...ROSS
AVIATION...DANGELO/LA CORTE/CERU


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.