Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 260027
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
827 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST WILL KEEP A WARM AND INCREASINGLY
HUMID AIRFLOW IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR
NIGHT...USHERING IN COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A COUPLE OF VERY SMALL SHOWERS CAN BE SEEN OVER ERIE
COUNTY...OTHERWISE THE FIRST EVENING OF THE TRADITIONAL SUMMER IS
A PERFECT ONE FOR COOKING OUT WITH MILD TEMPS AND STILL TOLERABLE
HUMIDITY.

PWATS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN THE HUMIDITY.
THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVER
ABOUT THE NWRN 1/3 OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL REMAIN FAIR AND DRY OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...OR SOME 10 TO
NEARLY 20 DEG ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND WILL GET ABOVE
1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT REMNANT MCV/S AND CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/SCTD TSRA FROM THE
VERY ACTIVE SRN PLAINS STATES AND LOWER MISS VALLEY CONVECTION.

THESE WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO CAPTURE FEATURES WILL TRIGGER
SOME SHRA/TSRA AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CAPTURING/TIMING THE IMPACTS OF SUCH WEAK SHORTWAVES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...WHILE FORECASTS OF PEAK INSTABILITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS PROVIDE MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE IN AT
LEAST SCTD SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 17Z-01Z.

SPC CONTINUES TO PAINT A MARGINAL RISK UP AND OVER THE WRN HALF TO
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA FOR DAY 2 - TUES AFTERNOON AND TUES NIGHT.
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO.

MEAN SREF CAPES TOP OUT BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG 18-23Z
TUESDAY...AND 0-3KM SHEAR IS WEAK-MDT WITH A GENERALLY LINEAR
PROFILE. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE MULTI-CELL TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY BE A DEG OR TWO COOLER ON TUES WITH MORE
CLOUDS THAN WE HAD DURING THE DAY TODAY /MONDAY/.

HIGH CHC POPS WILL BE PAINTED TUESDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD 40-50 PCT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WILL KEEP THEM LOWER IN THE SE - WHERE THEY
WILL BE FARTHER FROM THE FORCING AND UNDER WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND
MORE SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE FROM THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE AXIS .

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MID TO LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AGREEMENT IN
POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. EXPECT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

 THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE THROUGHOUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE SHOULD BE A BOUNDARY THAT COULD
PERSIST ACROSS THE NEW YORK BORDER...WHICH COULD BRING DAILY
CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HAVE ADJUSTED MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES AS
SUCH...BUT EXPECT TEMPS TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED INTO WRN NY WITH NO IMPACT TO
BFD. VFR SHOULD CONTINUE AT MOST SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN BRIEF 1-3HR PERIOD OF 3-6SM VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN BR/HZ IS AT MDT/LNS AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW PROBABILITY/EXPECTED COVERAGE...DECIDED NOT
TO EXPLICITLY MENTION TSTMS IN TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. LATER
ISSUANCES SHOULD INTRODUCE A VCTS FM GROUP WITH EITHER THE 06 OR
12Z ISSUANCE.

A SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK WITH REPLAY OF
PATCHY MORNING FOG GIVING WAY TO VFR AND AFTN ISOLD-SCT TSTMS. A
MORE DEFINED TSTM RISK SHOULD ARRIVE BY NEXT WEEKEND AS A COLD
FRONT PRESSES SEWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-FRI...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. TSTMS.

SAT-SUN...PATCHY A.M. MVFR FOG/BR. SCT-NMRS P.M TSTMS W/COLD
FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/MARTIN
AVIATION...STEINBUGL



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