Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 292156
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
556 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY TODAY
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
KEYSTONE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY TO CLOSE OUT JULY
2015.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HAZY HOT AND HUMID FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. STARTING TO SEE
ISOLATE CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ACROSS PA/MD BORDER MAINLY IN
SOMERSET COUNTY. WITH WARM MID LEVELS EXPECT CONVECTION TO HAVE A
HARD TIME GETTING GOING AND WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST
THIS EVENING. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND MID-HI CLOUDS TONIGHT
LOWS WILL BE VERY WARM. COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE WITH POPS
INCREASING OVER WESTERN CWA LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL CROSS THE CWA THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SPC OUTLOOK SHIFTS MARGINAL
LINE EASTWARD...OUTSIDE OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME STRONGER STORMS FOR OUR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. WITH DRYING CONDITIONS AND SOME
DOWNSLOPING...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE QUITE WARM DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH A
MEAN RIDGE IN THE WEST AND BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD
FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE NORTHEAST.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE RATHER SPARSE AND FOCUSED ALONG
WEAKENING NRN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS PROGRESSING SEWD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES ABOUT EVERY 1-2 DAYS STARTING ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS LOW ESPECIALLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN INCREASING
MODEL SPREAD. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN ZONES APPEAR TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WITH LESS PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR IN MOST AREAS THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL START TO ADVANCE
LATER TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
THEN SPREADING EASTWARD AS SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT MAY
NUDGE INTO BFD BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THURSDAY BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.


OUTLOOK...

FRI...MAINLY VFR.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...PM TSRA POSS W.
SUN...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...ROSS
SHORT TERM...ROSS
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...ROSS/DEVOIR


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