Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 100005
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
605 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DEALT WITH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
INCREASING CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE WEST. LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER
RUC FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. TIMING OF THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE BRINGING IN CLOUD
COVER WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WEST. THINK THERE WILL BE A LONG ENOUGH WINDOW OVER THE NORTHEAST
TO ALLOW TEMPS TO PLUMMET BELOW ZERO...EVEN WITH THE WINDS
REMAINING AROUND 5-10 KNOTS. MAY SEE SEE A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND
ACROSS THE WEST BUT TIMING OF THE CLOUD COVER TO ENTER THE WEST
LOOKS MORE LIKELY BY 09Z.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS PASSING THROUGH THE
FLOW EVERY 36-48 HRS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS FLOW WILL FINALLY BREAK OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HUDSON BAY
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY DEPARTS ALLOWING A GRADUAL TRANSITION
TO MORE WESTERLY FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES (POSSIBLY MUCH
WARMER) TOWARDS NEXT TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY IN THE 7-10 DAY
RANGE.

THE FIRST SHORT WAVE ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING LIGHT
SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE HALF TO ONE AND
ONE HALF INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WITH ABOVE CLIMO SNOW RATIOS
A DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER AND A PERIOD OF MODERATE FORCING. THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AND ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH
EXPECTED. FORTUNATELY THE WIND DURING THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO
BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. BREEZIER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT COULD CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW PROBLEMS IN REGARDS TO CAUSING
SNOW COVERED ROADS BUT CERTAINLY NOT A HEADLINE CRITERIA EVENT.

ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRANSITION FLOW.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE THAN THE TWO
PREDECESSORS...THEREFORE MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR 2+ INCHES OF
SNOW. THE TRANSITION TO SFC SOUTHERLY FLOW BY MONDAY WILL BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OTHERWISE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...10/00Z
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS ACROSS
TAF SITES. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO EARLY WED
MORNING HOWEVER AS SYSTEM APPROACHES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. ERN TAF
SITES WILL REMAIN VFR /KMCW/KALO/KOTM/ LATER IN THE DAY BUT OTHER
SITES /KFOD/KDSM/ WILL LIKELY SEE IFR/MVFR REDUCTIONS DUE TO
VSBYS AND/OR CIGS IN SNOW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...SMALL


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