Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 141136
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
636 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AND
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES LATE THIS
WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH FROM CANADA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. WEAK BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW...CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA...WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOMEWHAT IN NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND MAY
CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH THE
MORNING...THOUGH HAVE CUT BACK ON EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION GIVEN
RELATIVELY MINIMAL PRECIPITATION ONGOING ATTM. CAA WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE DAY AND HAVE KEPT TEMPS NEAR GOING...WITH NEAR RECORD
LOW MAX VALUES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA FOR THE DAY. HOWEVER...IF
CLOUDS CLEAR MAY BE TOO COOL. AS LOW PUSHES SE INTO GREAT LAKES
REGION WRAP AROUND ENERGY/MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NE TODAY...AND HAVE LEFT
MENTION IN FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

VERY COOL AIR FOR MID JULY WILL SETTLE INTO THE STATE WITH NEAR
RECORD LOW TEMPS BOTH TUE AND WED MORNING. ACTUALLY...MAX TEMPS
TODAY IN THE NORTH...AND FOR BOTH TUE AND WED WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
FAR FROM THE COOLEST DAYTIMES HIGHS ON RECORD FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR AS WELL. SLOW MODERATION AFTER WEDNESDAY AS COOL SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST.

UPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED. IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS IS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FEEL THE ECMWF FORECAST IS BETTER
AND OPTED THAT WAY...LEAVING PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST WITH IS
PASSAGE.

THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BEGIN FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG THETA-E
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
LEFT POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY...BUT WOUND NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT THEY WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED WITH LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...14/12Z
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2014

SHRA WILL AFFECT KOTM THROUGH MORNING HOURS BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL SHRA MAY AFFECT NORTHERN SITES KMCW/KALO IN THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION ATTM DUE TO
ANTICIPATED SCATTERED NATURE OF PRECIPITATION. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AFTER 00Z. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS JUL 14
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...MS JUL 14
AVIATION...AWB



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