Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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027
FXUS63 KDMX 261120
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
620 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...Updated for 12z Aviation Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Currently have a large area of showers and thunderstorms
in place across the southeastern half of the CWA. As the LLJ
shifts eastward and weakens toward sunrise expect this area of
precip to diminish with time as it moves east slowly. Sfc front
that was in place across the area will push south into Missouri
today with drier air moving into the state. An area of sfc high
pressure will briefly build into the state today, with return flow
setting up across the west into tonight/Monday. Western portion of
the frontal boundary ties into a developing area of low pressure
in lee of the Rockies which will lift northward across NE late
today into Monday.

A stronger cold front to drop through the CWA late Monday into
Tuesday, with another chance of showers and storms with that
front. Overall expect any development to move through the CWA
quickly...with a large area of cool Canadian high pressure to
skirt the state late Tuesday. Baroclinic zone aloft gets hung up
to the west as northwest upper level flow pattern develops aloft.
This zone slowly shifts eastward as weak energy aloft continues to
dive southeastward through the state Wednesday into Thursday.
Another cold front to push south through the CWA Friday. Otherwise
the west coast upper ridge quickly build back eastward into the
weekend with northwest flow pattern continuing to shove energy
dropping through the region.

Overall intermittent precip chances expected throughout the week,
with more seasonal temperatures expected as h85 temps fall into
the low to mid teens Celsius aloft. No one system looking to bring
any widespread chances of a soaking rain, but more chances for
scattered showers and storms through the period.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning/
Issued at 616 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Precipitation waning at TAF sites. Confidence high in skies
gradually clearing this morning and afternoon. KOTM only non-VFR
site. Timing on clearing at KOTM may vary by an hour or two.
Slight chance of BR tomorrow morning, but as of now, confidence in
and BR/FG not high enough to warrant FM group.

&&

.DMX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Beerends
LONG TERM...Beerends
AVIATION...Kotenberg



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