Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 310833
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
333 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

In the next 7 days, the main concerns are tonight`s temperatures and
the expected hard freeze, and thunderstorm chances early next week.

A surge of cold air associated with a deep trough dropping through
the Midwest is currently pushing into the CWA early this morning,
and will bring temperatures into the 30s to around 40 degrees by mid
morning. Although the deck of stratus associated with the colder air
will move out of the region by mid to late morning, little recovery
in temperatures is anticipated due to strong cold air advection and
the arrival of broad, chilly surface high pressure later in the day.
Highs today will likely top out only in the low to mid 40s, setting
the stage for an easy fall into the lower to mid 20s tonight under
clear skies and the surface ridge axis. These conditions will result
in the first hard freeze of the season tonight, and has prompted the
issuance of an area-wide freeze warning for tonight and Saturday
morning.

Temperatures will begin to rebound Saturday and especially Sunday as
the trough dives into the southeastern U.S. and then exits off to
the east, allowing ridging build over the central U.S. and southerly
flow to return at low levels. This pattern will allow moisture to
head back into the region as well, which will be important early
next week as the next system arrives.

Low pressure currently in the north Pacific will move on-shore this
weekend, and will eventually swing up into North Dakota by late
Sunday. This system will push a slow-moving cold front into the
region Sunday and the CWA by Monday, creating a potential for a few
nocturnal WAA storms Sunday night, and showers/isolated storms for
Monday through Tuesday night. Highest rainfall amounts should be
mainly southeast of the KC metro, but at least a period of showers
and storms is likely for the entire CWA as the front moves through.
The front will eventually sink south of the region on Wednesday and
gradually weaken as the parent system departs into Canada, and mild
zonal flow will fill in behind, preventing any dramatic swing in
temperatures on the back side. Temperatures next week will be near
normal in the upper 50s to lower 60s, but lows should remain mild
due to cloud cover and precipitation around the area.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

MVFR stratus will continue to push down from the north, impacting all
TAF sites between 06z and at least 10z-11z, if not a bit longer. The
cloud deck will be accompanied by strong north winds in the 15 to 20
kt range, with gusts up to 30 kts possible. After stratus clears on
Friday morning, skies will become clear and remain VFR through the
rest of the TAF period. Winds will remain sustained at around 12-15
kts with gusts up to 20 kts through the day, then will drop off
quickly around sunset Friday evening.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FREEZE WARNING from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     KSZ025-057-060-102>105.

MO...FREEZE WARNING from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin






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