Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 051018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
518 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

Issued at 340 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

Benign weather to continue through the remainder of the work week as
large-scale ridging seen over the Rockies this morning shifts east
with time. Meanwhile along the surface...high pressure expected to
drift over the area today with winds largely remaining light and
variable through the day. The combination of building heights along
with increasing 850-mb temps should allow highs to reach into the
lower to middle 70s across much of the area. Even warmer temps likely
Friday as southerly flow returns as high pressure settles well to
our southeast. The combination of good mixing and a modest downslope
component will likely allow for low 80s across many areas Friday

Another warm day likely on Saturday however this will be the start of
a fairly long period of unsettled weather as a frontal boundary
drifts south from the Central Plains/upper Miss Rvr Vly and stalls
across the Lwr Missouri Vly. Models appear to be in favorable
agreement that this boundary will settle across northern
Missouri...with this feature acting as a focus for developing
convection as early as Saturday afternoon. From this vantage
point...most likely areas for convection Saturday afternoon will be
along and north of Route 36...with this activity gradually settling
south Saturday night as high pressure nosing in from the north
pushes the front further south overnight. While modest elevated
instability will likely limit updraft strength...we cannot rule out a
few stray marginally severe hail reports at this time.

Better forcing for ascent set to arrive Sunday and Sunday night as
large-scale upper low ejects east from the Central Rockies. As this
occurs...strengthening southerly flow ahead of a leeside low
pressure center dropping into the Plains should lift the stalled
front north of our area Sunday afternoon. This will allow developing
warm sector instability to fuel ongoing convection from Sunday night
into Monday morning. Main trough then expected to pivot through the
area Monday afternoon/evening with severe storms possible as pseudo
dryline/cold front marches east. Beyond this...front will once again
lift back north as a warm front by midweek as yet another strong
system slides out of the Rockies. With high pressure off the
Southeast coast...ample moisture advection north from the Gulf will
keep the threat for shwrs/storms ongoing through the end of the fcst


.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 517 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR conditions to dominate through the period as high pressure
settles over the region. Winds will remain light and
variable...generally from the northeast today before shifting to the
south overnight.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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