Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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000
FXUS66 KEKA 051204
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
504 AM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE TO
OUR EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW HAS ABOUT BOTTOMED OUT NEAR 34N/126W
IN THE BASE OF A LARGE SCALE TROF. VORTICITY MAXIMA CONTINUE TO
PIVOT N AROUND THE LOW AND BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED N INTO
TRINITY COUNTY EARLIER IN THE NIGHT...AND A FEW MORE STORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT IN THAT AREA THRU THE MORNING HOURS.

AS THE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE PLAINS AND THE UPPER
LOW REMAINS NEAR THE REGION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
TODAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OVER THE E 1/2 OF THE AREA.
LIFTED INDICES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND -4 C THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH MUCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. DUE TO THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT STRONGER TODAY WITH
MORE LIGHTNING. STORMS MAY ALSO BE A BIT LONGER LASTING. SHOWER
AND STORM MOTION WILL BE GENERALLY TO THE N...BUT A MORE NW DRIFT
IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO MAKE IT INTO THE COASTAL ZONES
LATER TODAY. AS MENTIONED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER...STORMS WILL
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

ONE MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM DAY IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...WITH THE
MAIN FOCUS FROM THE TRINITY HORN TO THE YOLLA BOLLYS.
HOWEVER...STORM MOTION WILL BE FROM E TO W...AND STORMS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO REACH THE COAST LATER IN THE DAY. DRIER AIR WILL START
TOINFILTRATE ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW TIGHTENS
OVER S CA AND UPPER WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE NE DIRECTION. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOK POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR...BUT OVERALL
PRECIP COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE WANE AND CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE
AS WELL.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BECOME ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE REGION. MAX TEMPS
IN THE MID 80S ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR BY TUE
OF NEXT WEEK. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV
TODAY. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITIES AS SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT TIMES AND
DUE TO PATCHY FOG OCCURRING AT SOME LOCATIONS. LIGHT WINDS TO CALM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KCEC AND KACV THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
MODERATE AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT KCEC AND KACV LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS TO CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KUKI THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING. THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE DUE TO REDUCED CEILINGS. VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR AT KUKI LATE THIS MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...A STRONG OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTERACTING WITH AN
INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN NEAR SHORE
WATERS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS AND/OR SEAS. A
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO ELEVATED SHORT PERIOD SEAS. A
GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO WIND GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE OCCURRING.
THE SEAS WILL DIMINISH THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WEAKENING AND THE INLAND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROPAGATING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM SAT FOR PZZ450.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM FRI FOR PZZ470.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM SAT FOR PZZ475.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 3 AM SAT FOR PZZ475.

$$

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