Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 021651
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
950 AM MST WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. DRIER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO NW ARIZONA...WITH
FLAGSTAFF PW VALUES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...MUCH HIGHER PW VALUES EXIST TO OUR SOUTH. ADVECTION OF
MOISTURE AND STORM MOTION FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD ENGENDER
THUNDERSTORM FORMATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOCUSED
GENERALLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SEDONA TO THE FOUR
CORNERS WHERE GREATER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT.
WE`VE INCREASED THE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /418 AM MST/...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO BE MOST FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THOUGH STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE AS
WELL. THIS IS THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC SCENARIO UNDER THE MOIST
SOUTHERLY THAT REMAINS IN PLACE. AS WE ENTER THE WEEKEND...FLOW WILL
TURN MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THIS MAY LEAD TO A BIT OF A DOWNTURN IN
ACTIVITY FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY...BUT DON`T EXPECT A
COMPLETE SHUT-OFF IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY ANY MEANS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHER ARIZONA TODAY WITH MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE
STRONGEST STORMS WITH HAIL AND ERRATIC GUSTY SURFACE WINDS FROM 30
TO 40 MPH. SCT -TSRA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TIL 05Z GENERALLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KSEZ-KINW-KRQE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BAK/KD
AVIATION...BAK/RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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