Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 011143
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
443 AM MST SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE ABOVE 6500
FEET THIS MORNING WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 7500 FEET BY THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WILL BRING DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW FORECAST TO BRING A SECOND ROUND OF
WET AND COOL WEATHER STARTING FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...COLD LOW PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AZ THIS MORNING. A MODERATE BAND OF PRECIPITATION HAS SET
UP ON THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW CENTER COINCIDENT WITH
A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AZ. THIS BAND
HAS RESULTED IN SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL DOWN TO AROUND 6500
FEET THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MOGOLLON RIM AND LIKELY NORTHEAST
TOWARD WINDOW ROCK. REPORTS OF UP TO AN INCH IN GRASSY AREAS
AROUND THE FLAGSTAFF AREA WITH MORE LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF FLAGSTAFF
TOWARD LAKE MARY WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN MORE PERSISTENT.
THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AFFECTING AREAS FROM NEAR FLAGSTAFF NORTHEAST
THROUGH BLACK MESA AND THE CHINLE VALLEY. AREAS ABOVE 6500 CAN
GENERALLY EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW THROUGH MID
MORNING...PERHAPS MORE FROM LAKE MARY TOWARD MORMON LAKE.

INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING WITH SNOW LEVELS RISING ABOVE 7500 FEET BY THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF AZ. A WEAKER DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH AZ
ON MONDAY KEEPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A BRIEF WARM UP AND DRY CONDITIONS. BY THURSDAY A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST RESULTING IN
INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR NORTHERN AZ. THE LOW MARCHES EAST
THROUGH AZ ON FRIDAY AND NORTHEAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER MAKES A RETURN WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM -SHRA/-SHSN
WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF KRQE-KFLG LINE THROUGH 16Z-18Z...ESPECIALLY
OVER HIGHER EAST-FACING TERRAIN. CIGS IN THIS AREA WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 2-4KFT AGL IN ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY...OTHERWISE...4-6KFT
AGL. LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 7000 FEET WILL PRODUCE IFR
CONDITIONS. AFTER 18Z-20Z...EXPECT SCT-BKN SKY COVER WITH CIGS FROM
5-8KFT AGL. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE -SHRA/-SHRASN SHOWERS
THROUGH 02Z-04Z MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXPECT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH FREQUENT
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
I-40 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION FROM STRATIFORM THIS
MORNING...TO LESS COVERAGE AND MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. A WEAKER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR LIGHT CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ON
MONDAY...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING DRY AND
MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE DISTRICT ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR
THURSDAY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. HOWEVER...A STRONG AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC WILL BRING INCREASED
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCS
AVIATION...PETERSON
FIRE WEATHER...PETERSON


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF



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