Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 061100
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
345 AM MST MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY. DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
WESTERN ZONES STARTING WEDNESDAY. THIS DRIER AIR TO PUSH EASTWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION... VERY MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF ARIZONA
THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE FINALLY
WINDING DOWN ACROSS YAVAPAI COUNTY AT 3 AM AFTER RAINING FOR MOST OF
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA IS LIKELY WORKED OVER FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
CHANCES WERE LOWERED TO SLIGHT CHANCE PER HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE.

ELSEWHERE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD
DELAY THE ONSET OF CONVECTION TO AFTER 11 AM...WITH STORMS MOST
LIKELY FORMING OVER THE WHITE MTNS AND EASTERN RIM FIRST...AND
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. TUESDAY IS LOOKING
SIMILAR TO TODAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.
DRIER AIR IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SWRN AZ.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WE SHOULD BE SEEING DRY WEATHER WITH
MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER ACROSS AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM PAGE TO
PAYSON. WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED EAST OF THIS LINE. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOONS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETS UP
ALONG THE WEST COAST. FORECAST HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WERE
LOWERED SEVERAL DEGREES PER MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH VALUES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MODELS SHOW THE MONSOON PLUME TO PUSH WESTWARD STARTING SATURDAY AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOLLOW SUIT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE..ISOLD-SCT TSRA/-SHRA WILL CONTINUE
THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY AND PORTIONS OF COCONINO
COUNTY THIS MORNING. SCT TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED BTWN 17-04Z
TODAY WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS. &&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
CIRCULATION PATTERN GOING TODAY FOR A GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL DECREASE MOISTURE LEVELS
RESULTING IN LESS STORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A GRADUAL DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN CLOSE TO AVERAGE...WITH DECREASING AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. && &&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DL
AVIATION & FIRE WEATHER...TEC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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