Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 261644

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
944 AM MST MON SEP 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Mainly dry conditions are anticipated over northern
Arizona today with an increasing chance of showers and isolated
thunderstorms overnight and on Tuesday. Lingering moisture will
then lead to a continued chance of showers and isolated storms
through Friday. Drier air from the west will move in over the
weekend. Look for near normal temperatures through the period.


No significant changes to the update this morning as moisture
begins to move into the area this afternoon and will continue
through the remainder of the work week. Isolated shower activity
should be limited to the White Mountains and the higher terrain
along the Mogollon Rim this afternoon.


.PREV DISCUSSION /301 AM MST/...Low pressure aloft was centered
over the central portion of Baja California this morning, evident
on water vapor satellite imagery. At the same time, high pressure
was stationed over California and Nevada. The overall setup with
high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south will
result in generally dry conditions during the day today with
locally gusty east winds, especially along the Mogollon Rim and
locations south. Overnight, the flow will turn more southeasterly
and will be associated with increasing moisture. The addition of a
passing jet stream max and associated upward motion will result in
the development of a slight chance of showers from the Mogollon
Rim and White Mountains region southward. Otherwise, look for
seasonable temperatures and increasing clouds.

From Tuesday onward...The weak low over Baja California will
slowly wobble to a position near the California/Arizona border
before being absorbed by the general flow and moving to the
northeast. In response to the position of the low locally gusty
southeast winds will develop on Tuesday becoming south to
southwest starting Wednesday as the low moves out of the area. The
southeast flow on Tuesday will continue to draw moisture across
Arizona which will interact weak large-scale upward motion for an
increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms. Moisture will
then remain over northern Arizona from Wednesday through Friday
with at least a slight chance of showers and storms continuing.
Otherwise, seasonable temperatures will remain under partly to
mostly cloudy skies.


.AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Winds will be generally light
for most locations tonight, though locally gusty northeast winds
will continue, mainly southwest of KFLG. Breezy winds will become
easterly this afternoon. Chances for showers will develop
southeast of KSOW, with the potential for precipitation shifting
north and west Monday Night and Tuesday. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.






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