Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 280341
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ...UPDATED FOR WIND ADVISORY
845 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO NORTHERN ARIZONA
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A SLOW INCREASE IN  LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING. A LINE OF SHOWERS IS
DEVELOPING BETWEEN THE GRAND CANYON...TUBA CITY...AND CHINLE.
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...FILL IN...AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD FOR LATER TONIGHT. MADE MINOR
CHANGES TO SNOW LEVELS...QPF...AND SNOW AMOUNTS.

ON SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA PULLING PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MOGOLLON RIM...LITTLE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY ...AND THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS 11 AM TO 7 PM SATURDAY. THE LOW
ITSELF WILL STILL BE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...SO PRECIPITATION WILL
PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC LIFT AND UPSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT
EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS WITH SOME EMBEDDED MODERATE SHOWERS POSSIBLE
OVER SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERN FACING SLOPES. SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST
TO RANGE FROM JUST BELOW 6000 FEET AROUND THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU...INCREASING TO AROUND 7000 TO 8000 FEET IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 40 TO
50 MPH ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.

ON SUNDAY...AS THE LOW APPROACHES ARIZONA...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A
MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WHILE CONTINUING TO PULL VERY MOIST AIR
INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA CAUSING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW. SLIGHTLY
WARMER AIR MAY WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE SOUTH INCREASING SNOW
LEVELS TEMPORARILY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW LEVELS ARE
GOING TO BE HOVERING AROUND 7000 FEET ALONG THE CENTRAL RIM...SO
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE
FLAGSTAFF AREA.

ON MONDAY...THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSS THE STATE FROM
WEST TO EAST. EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE
FRONTAL BAND WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING BELOW 6000 FEET BEHIND THE
FRONT.

THE GREATEST FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THE SNOW LEVELS AND
THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. THE MAJORITY OF
YESTERDAYS MODELS WERE COOLER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURRING LATE SUNDAY AND
INTO MONDAY. THE MAJORITY OF TODAYS MODELS ARE WARMER AND FAVOR A
FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER MIDDAY MONDAY. WITH THAT SAID...TRAVEL IN
THE HIGH COUNTY WILL BE CHALLENGING THIS WEEKEND DUE TO ICY
ROADWAYS AND PERIODS OF VERY LOW VISIBILITY. PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA
TO GET YOUR WINTER TRAVEL KIT REPLENISHED...AND MAKE SURE THE
CAR/TRUCK HAS A FULL TANK OF GAS.

BEYOND TUESDAY...THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DWINDLE WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF
SHSN/SHRA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A KP23-KRQE LINE TO NEAR
THE UT BORDER THRU 10Z...THEN EXPANDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE MVFR/IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. NIGHTTIME WINDS SW5-15G25KTS DOWNWIND FROM HIGH TERRAIN
FEATURES...DAYTIME SFC WINDS SW15-25G25-45KTS MAINLY FROM THE
MOGOLLON RIM NORTH 18Z-02Z SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1100 AM TO 700
PM MST FOR ZONES AZZ011>016-040.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS/RR
AVIATION.......MAS/TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF










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