Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 041036
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
336 AM MST TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AIR ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL BRING
FAIR WEATHER THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. ANOTHER DRY PUNCH OF AIR MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN ARIZONA
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...OBSERVED DEW POINTS THIS MORNING REVEAL RELATIVELY
DRY AIR HAS OVERSPREAD NORTHERN ARIZONA. DEW POINT VALUES RANGE
FROM THE MID 30`S ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA TO THE UPPER 40`S
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA. THESE DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY LEADING TO ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE ON THURSDAY AS
A MOIST SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW DEVELOPS BETWEEN AN APPROACHING WEST
COAST TROUGH AND A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION CENTERED
OVER TEXAS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING
OF THE MOISTURE SURGE. THE ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY MORE MOIST ON
THURSDAY AS COMPARED TO THE NAM AND GFS. WITH THAT SAID, MODEL
GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT THE MOST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF
THE WEEK WILL BE ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY ALSO APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER, AS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DEEP LAYER
BULK SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ON SATURDAY, THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE GREAT
BASIN WITH DRYING CONDITIONS IN ITS WAKE. WHILE ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
ARIZONA, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHEAST.

FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...DRYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONFINE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS REGION ON SUNDAY. SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE IS FORECAST
TO LEAD TO LOW GRADE MONSOON CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION...TM


FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF


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