Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 180356
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 PM MST WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE FROM WHAT REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS AREAS. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF
PINE/STRAWBERRY THROUGH THURSDAY. CHANCES FOR DAYTIME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE LINGERS
OVER THE REGION.

&&
.DISCUSSION...THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF WHAT WAS ONCE ODILE IS
NEAR NOGALES THIS EVENING AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO NEW
MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE KFGZ 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED
SIGNIFICANT DRYING FROM THIS MORNING ABOVE 500 MB. THERE WAS ALSO A
RAPID DECREASE IN SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS
EVENING. THESE FACTORS LEAD TO THE DOWNSIZING OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TO JUST FIVE ZONE IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR
CWA--NORTHERN GILA COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NAVAJO AND
APACHE COUNTIES. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /321 PM MST/...ODILE IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AS ITS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS INCREASINGLY LOSING
DEFINITION OVER NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO. THE MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY. BY THURSDAY MORNING...THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS REGION.

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA...DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE ACROSS OUR WESTERN
ZONES...AS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION. SO THE GREATEST THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE IN NORTHERN GILA COUNTY...THE FAR EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM...AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE
IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS LIKELY.

ON THURSDAY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REINVIGORATE
AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN NORTHERN GILA
COUNTY...THE FAR EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM...AND WHITE MOUNTAINS AREAS.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT AREAS NEAREST THE
ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL MOVE INTO NEW MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. BY FRIDAY...A CUT OFF LOW WILL SETUP OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS FEATURE...COUPLED WITH LINGERING MOISTURE...WILL
BE CAPABLE OF KICKING OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER..HAVE CHOSEN TO DECREASE CHANCES A BIT ON
FRIDAY. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...LIKELY OWING TO A FORECAST INTRUSION OF DRY MID
LEVEL AIR. BY THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK A DRIER WEST
TO NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO SETTLE IN BRINGING A DRIER WEATHER
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WITH PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT 24HRS SOUTH OF A KPAN-KRQE LINE.
LESS CLOUD COVER AND FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SCATTERED
IFR CONDITIONS IN MOD/HVY SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF MVFR CLOUD CEILINGS
AND OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG AT A FEW OF THE HIGH ELEVATION AIRFIELDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE AGAIN BY MID MORNING ON
THURSDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KRQE-KGCN. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. &&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR AZZ014-016>018
&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS/RR
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF











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