426
FXUS65 KFGZ 090545
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1045 PM MST Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Below normal temperatures will continue through the
end of the week, with near/above afternoon highs returning over
the weekend. Typical spring-like breezes will remain through the
forecast period, with slight chances for showers and thunderstorms
across some areas Friday through Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...A mostly quiet night is on tap for northern Arizona.
Gusty northeast winds will develop along portions of the high
terrain and locations immediately downslope. Smoke from the
prescribed fire near Flagstaff Airport may drain into Oak Creek
Canyon and travel as far south as Sedona. Tonight`s sky cover,
smoke, haze, and wind forecasts were updated with the latest high
resolution guidance. The rest of the forecast is in good shape.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /437 PM MST/...The large area of low pressure that
brought the strong winds to northern Arizona on Monday is now
over the Great Plains. There is also a large area of high pressure
off the West Coast. Arizona is between these two atmospheric
features...in a zonal or westerly flow. The low will slowly fill
as it moves southwest and over Utah by Thursday afternoon. Even
though the low pressure approaches Arizona, our pressure will
increase and will slowly increase our temperatures through the end
of the week. Most of northern Arizona have afternoon highs
staying a few degrees below-normal for this time of year. Will
will see afternoon seasonal southwest breezes for the next few
days as well.

By late Thursday, enough moisture and instability returns to
northeast Arizona for a few showers and/or thunderstorms. The low
remains over the area through the weekend with low chances for
showers and thunderstorms remaining into next week...with the best
chances along our Utah and New Mexico border. Again, even with the
low over the area, the surface pressure will increase with
temperatures warming to above average by Sunday for many area.

There will also be areas of smoke from prescribed burns and wild
fires that could reduce the visibility at times this week.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 09/06Z through Friday 10/06Z...Widespread VFR
conditions and mainly light winds from variable directions are
forecast. However, northeast winds tonight could become gusty
along and downslope of the high terrain. And, visibility
reductions are possible at KFLG, mainly overnight, due to smoke
from a nearby prescribed fire.

OUTLOOK...Friday 10/06Z through Sunday 12/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions and light winds are forecast. A few showers and
thunderstorms are possible northeast of a KGCN-KRQE line each
day. Areas of smoke and haze are also possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Friday...Dry and cool conditions
with breezy afternoon winds are expected for Thursday and Friday.
Anticipate minimum humidity of 10 to 20% each afternoon with
moderate to good overnight recoveries. Elevated northeast winds, 10
to 20 mph, are likely tonight across the High Country, followed by
west-southwest winds, 15 to 25 mph, for Thursday and Friday
afternoons.

Saturday through Monday...Slight chances (10 to 20%) for isolated
showers and thunderstorms are forecast along the UT and NM borders
on Saturday afternoon, extending along the higher terrain of
northern Arizona for Sunday and Monday. Temperatures warm to above
average for Sunday and Monday with afternoon humidity of 15 to 20%.
West-northwest winds, 15 to 25 mph, are forecast each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Benji/MAS
AVIATION...Benji
FIRE WEATHER...Benji/LaGuardia

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff