Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 242322

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
420 PM MST WED AUG 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms each day
through Saturday, especially over the higher elevations. A drying
and warming trend is expected late in the weekend and into early
next week.


.DISCUSSION...An active day developed today, especially along and
south of the Mogollon Rim. Cold air aloft and significant increased
surface heating was able to overcome the factors that we thought
would hamper convection. Farther to the north and east, drier and
more subsident air kept most activity on the light side.

A deepening trough to our north will turn flow more southwesterly
Thursday and Friday. This will allow moisture to move back north,
especially over the eastern zones. Cold air aloft, dynamics, and
some shear, may keep the area more active than was previously
thought. We have raised pops to cover this.

By Saturday and Sunday, high pressure begins to build into Arizona
from the west. Expect much drier and warmer conditions by late in
the weekend and into early next week.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Mainly VFR conditions are forecast
over northern Arizona through the TAF period. TEMPO MVFR conditions
near any thunderstorms are possible. Scattered thunderstorms should
taper off by 02z Thursday, then redevelop again after 18z Thursday.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.






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