Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 302127
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
235 PM MST WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. STARTING FRIDAY...MOISTURE AND STORM CHANCES
INCREASE AS THE WIND FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHEASTERLY.

&&

.DISCUSSION..
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE CAPPING TODAYS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
PRECIP CHANCES WERE LOWERED TO AROUND 10 PERCENT (TO COVER MY PARTS)
THROUGH 11 PM TONIGHT WITH FAIR WEATHER THEN THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. PROGS SHOW MID LEVEL WIND STREAMLINES TO REMAIN WESTERLY
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THUS THURSDAYS STORM
COVERAGE LOOKS ISOLATED FOR MOST AND SCATTERED IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS...WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING.

FRIDAY...MODELS SHOW THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO BEGIN SLOWLY
SHIFTING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. PROGS SHOW BETTER MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY FRIDAY AND THE INCREASE IN STORM CHANCES TO AROUND 30
PERCENT LOOKS GOOD FOR THE MOUNTAINS. STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS
ALOFT BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA.
DAYTIME STORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND ARE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. PROGS ARE
SUGGESTING AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY MOVE THROUGH WESTERN AZ
SATURDAY NIGHT AND PRECIP CHANCES ARE IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE FOR
AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM SUPAI TO SHOW LOW SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...PREDOMINANTLY BEFORE 02Z AND AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.
ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY DAYTIME BREEZES
OTHERWISE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........41
AVIATION.......MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF










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