Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KFGZ 230355
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
855 PM MST FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HELPED PRODUCE STORMS OVER
ARIZONA THIS WEEK HAS PUSHED INTO NEW MEXICO. DRIER AIR BEHIND
THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO ARIZONA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A
GRADUAL DOWN TURN IN STORM ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE MAY
INCREASE AGAIN OVER ARIZONA BY TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED INTO NEW MEXICO WITH A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE WESTERLY FLOW FILTERING INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS CAN BE
SEEN ON THIS EVENING`S SOUNDING WITH A DECREASE IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER TO JUST UNDER SIX TENTHS OF AN INCH AND A WARM CAPPING
INVERSION ALOFT. CONVECTION WAS QUICK TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
WITH NO ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
LEAD TO COOLER THAN AVERAGE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. HAVE MADE
MINOR TWEAKS TO THE EVENING FORECAST BUT ALL IN ALL LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /315 PM MST/...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...DRIER WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING A
DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE
CHANCE OF PRECIP SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
EASTERN ARIZONA.

BY TUESDAY...THE GFS AND EC SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD
OVER ARIZONA AGAIN. THE EC INDICATES MORE MOISTURE THAN THE GFS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF INCREASING POPS ON TUESDAY...THEN TAPERING OFF
SLIGHTLY WED/THU LOOKS GOOD. THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY NEXT WEEK...SO STAY TUNED FOR
UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT
ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. A MINIMAL POSSIBILITY OF MVFR
CIG/VSBY EXISTS OVERNIGHT UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. AN ISOLATED -TSRA IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN AZ. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS/MAS
AVIATION.......MCS/AT

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.