Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT
FXUS65 KGGW 281513 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service GLASGOW MT
913 AM MDT Fri Oct 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...today through Sun...
Sent an update this morning to more accurately represent
conditions across the CWA today. Precipitation actually reaching
the ground is a bit more than was expected although not well-
represented in the model data recently. Went ahead and increased
PoPs to cover these isolated rain showers and surrounded them with
isolated sprinkles. Best guess is that this west-east oriented band
of isolated precipitation will slowly translated southward through
the CWA over the course of the day. Expecting significant cloud
cover to inhibit day time surface heating much above the mid-50s
today except over our southeastern zones where it may just creep
up above 60 this afternoon. Breezy northwest winds will set up
behind this weak cold front, but do not think it will be much more
than a 2 to 4 hours of 15G25 mph type winds. Probably just
borderline for Lake Wind Advisory criteria.
Previous short term discussion: A cold front moved through
Northeast Montana early this morning. Shortwave trough is
currently moving east across Southern Saskatchewan and bringing
rain showers to areas along the MT/SK border. The showers will
move to the east early this morning. It will breezy and cooler
behind the surface front today. Northwest winds will most likely
stay below 20 mph which is lake wind advisory criteria. Most areas
will have dry weather with Northeast Montana between systems.
The next shortwave trough will move northeast from California
today and along the MT/WY border late tonight and Saturday
morning where the cold front will be at that time. A surface high
building into Northeast Montana from Canada tonight and Saturday
will keep most of the showers associated with this wave south of
the forecast area.
The wave moves to the east by Saturday afternoon and a shortwave
ridge builds into Eastern Montana for Saturday Night with dry
While the ridge moves to the east on Sunday and flow aloft turns
to the southwest. Waves within the SW flow aloft generally stay to
the west of the forecast during the day. Expect dry weather for
the most part although a few showers may occur in the western
.LONG TERM...Sun night through Fri...
The latest 00z models continue to indicate rain chances across
the area as a shortwave passes through Sunday night. Thermal
profiles may cool enough for a few wet snowflakes to mix in near
the Canadian border as the precipitation ends late Sunday night or
Mild and dry weather will largely be the story for the midweek as
an upper level ridge develops over the region. A shortwave trough
may pass close enough to the area to produce an increase in clouds
or a shower on Thursday, however, at this time the best forcing
for ascent appears to stay north into Canada.
Model consensus presently points toward a more dominant ridge
building across the central U.S. and extending into eastern
Montana for the end of the week with warming temperatures and
continued dry weather conditions. As is usual with these larger
time scales, some uncertainty exists, but highs in the mid 50s in
the north to low 60s in the south are a possibility by Friday,
generally above average compared with climatology.
Expect conditions today to generally be in the VFR category. Winds
will increase throughout the day to around 15 mph across much of
the region with gusts as high as 25 mph at times this afternoon.
Isolated showers may pass over the sites today as a small
disturbance moves through the region. Ceilings will gradually
lower through the day and into tonight, and could reach MVFR
levels by early tomorrow morning at most sites.