Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 062053
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
253 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AGAIN SHOWS DIFFUSE SMOKE CONTINUING TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH COULD STILL BE A HEALTH HAZARD TO SOME.
ALSO SEEN ON THE IMAGERY IS MUCH THICKER SMOKE MOVING FROM
WASHINGTON STATE AND BRITISH COLUMBIA. SO WILL MAINTAIN SMOKE IN
THE WX GRIDS FOR TONIGHT TO REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH OUR NEIGHBORS
IN THE TEXT WORDING.

THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN TONIGHT IS NORTHWESTERLY WITH A TROUGH TO
THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THERE IS A CLOSED LOW
SPINNING OFF THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA THAT WILL DRIFT ONSHORE
LATE WEDNESDAY...EJECTING MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.

DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD THE STRONG CANADIAN LOW CENTERED OVER
HUDSON BAY WILL HANG TOUGH WITH THE COOL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA. THIS WILL PREVENT THE HOT AIR OF THE WESTERN RIDGE FROM
CREEPING IN AND SENDING OUR TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD BKN CU DEVELOPED BY LATE MORNING. THESE
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING. THEREFORE EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CANADIAN LOW SENDS A COUPLE OF
BACK TO BACK COLD FRONTS SOUTH OVER THE REGION. MODELS ARE SHOWING
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS. ALSO SURFACE
WIND AGAIN TURNS NORTHERLY. MODELS SHOW ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY AND
SPC ONLY HAS GENERAL TS COVERAGE. SO DO NOT EXPECT STRONG STORMS.

WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER COOL MORNING...TMAX SHOULD ONLY REACH
AROUND NORMAL AGAIN. WITH A SURFACE HIGH SLIDING SOUTH OVER THE
AREA...EXPECT THE DAY TO BE DRY.

SCT


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. ADJUSTED POPS A LITTLE
BIT FOR THE SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHICH LOOKS TO BE
THE BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ALSO UPDATED THE
WINDS IN THE EXTENDED WITH EMPHASIS ON THIS WEEKEND WHERE THERE
WILL BE ABOUT 600 PEOPLE ON FORT PECK LAKE ASSOCIATED WITH GOV
CUP...NOT TO MENTION ALL THE OTHER RECREATIONAL USERS.

THINGS LOOK PRETTY HOT AND DRY ON THE FIRE WEATHER SIDE OF THINGS
AS WELL AND THERE COULD BE FIRE WEATHER WATCHES/RED FLAG WARNINGS
BY LATER THIS WEEK AS IT HEATS UP AGAIN. FRANSEN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BETWEEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
NIGHT...NORTHEAST MONTANA TRANSITIONS FROM NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
IN THE NORTHERN STREAM TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM OF A SPLIT FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS POINT...THE ECMWF IS
SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE GFS IN THIS TRANSITION. IT OCCURS WITHIN
A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER RIDGE WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND WARM
SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES.

IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER
CALIFORNIA DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE LOW WEAKENS INTO AN
UPPER TROUGH ON THURSDAY AND MOISTURE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT STARTS
MOVING TOWARDS MONTANA. THIS MOISTURE ALONG SHORTWAVES IN THE SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL START IMPACTING NORTHEAST MONTANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGEST OF THESE WAVES WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER MONTANA ON SUNDAY AND REMAINS IN PLACE
FOR MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE
SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE RIDGE. WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FORRESTER

&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MAINLY VFR...BUT SOME MVFR MIXED IN AT TIMES DUE TO
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES.

SKY: SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT.

WINDS: LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY TURNING TO THE
EAST THIS EVENING.


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




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