Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 231603

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
1003 AM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast through Sun...

Update: Minor changes were made to cloud cover this morning to
indicated the partly cloudy to clear skies over portions of
Sheridan, Roosevelt, and Richland counties. Extended the period of
light rain showers over Phillips and Valley counties into the late
morning and early afternoon. There also is 20-30% chance of light
rain showers over eastern portions of Prairie and Dawson Wibaux
counties with showers expected to increase this afternoon as a
weather system heads NE across that area later today into Sunday
morning. TEC

Previous Discussion:
Upper trof over the region will shift slightly eastward over the
next few days. Cool conditions will continue with diurnal change
dependent on amount of cloud cover.

Light showers moving out of south central Montana will lift across
the western zones this morning before the focus shifts toward the
North Dakota border as upper trof axis moves across the divide.
Heaviest rain is expected to remain in the Dakotas but will 700mb
low lifting across southeast Montana tonight could get some higher
qpf amounts on the east side of the Yellowstone River overnight.

.LONG TERM...Sun night through Sat...

Beginning Sunday night, the slow-moving, main low pressure trough
axis will finally be moving through eastern Montana, which will push
the chances for any remaining organized rain showers further
east, in that SW flow aloft, which will have been impacting our
SE zones for a few days.

Monday evening through Tuesday night, the trough closes off a bit
into a weak upper low center up and through our CWA. But, due to
the lack of available moisture and any significant forcing for
ascent, any precipitation will be scattered and light at best -
hardly impactful.

Beginning late Tuesday night, general NW aloft returns to the
region, with some minor model precip discrepancies appearing,
which in turn, lower overall forecast confidence.

Thursday night and beyond, another ridge of high pressure builds
into the region from the west, with higher confidence in a warmer
and drier forecast through the early part of next weekend.



VFR to MVFR conditions expected with ceilings between 1000 and
6500 feet. Light rain showers are possible across the region
during the taf period, mainly west of KGGW thru early afternoon
and from KSDY and KGDV east this afternoon and overnight into
Sunday morning.




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