Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KGGW 011547
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
947 AM MDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL HANGING TOUGH NEAR FT PECK LAKE AT 9AM...BUT
ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF DISSIPATING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE NW FLOW. KEPT
SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING DOWNSTREAM OF THE SHOWERS FOR THE MORNING
HOURS...LOWER POPS ELSEWHERE. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD
MAKE IT INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. LAKE WIND ADVISORY
STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. REST OF
FORECAST SEEMS TO BE IN CHECK. TFJ

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ONE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TODAY. THE
NEXT TROUGH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE YUKON TODAY AND BRING A
STRONG COLD FRONT INTO MONTANA THURSDAY MORNING.

THE FIRST UPPER TROUGH HAS SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES ACROSS
NORTHEAST MONTANA TODAY AS NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

LOOK FOR A LULL TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT DIVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING. TIGHT SURFACE
GRADIENT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE THE NORTHWEST WINDS
STRONGER THAN TODAY. WILL KEEP A LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SOME AREAS WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS WITH
THE COLD FRONT. WHILE 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO -2C THURSDAY MORNING...
GOOD MIXING WILL KEEP SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND MOIST
LAYER STRUGGLES TO REACH AS COLD AS -10C WHICH IS NEEDED FOR ICE
CRYSTALS. GIVEN THE LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS... WILL KEEP PRECIP TYPE
AS RAIN IN MOST AREAS. WILL ALLOW FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LITTLE ROCKIES.

HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES. WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING... MANY AREAS WILL FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S.
WARMER AIR QUICKLY RETURNS ON FRIDAY WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
FROM THE WEST. FORRESTER

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

SYNOPTIC SET UP... A LARGE TROUGH RUNS FROM NUNAVUT THROUGH
MANITOBA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A LARGE RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER
CALIFORNIA AND ITS INFLUENCE SPREADS OUT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. NORTHEAST MONTANA SETS BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. UP STREAM THE FLOW BENDS BACK OVER BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY AND WARM SLIGHTLY
AND THE WARMER... STABLE SIDE OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW MAINTAINS
CONTROL OVER THE AREA.

SUNDAY NIGHT ONWARD... MODEL CONFIDENCE BREAKS DOWN AND GOES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR MESOSCALE FEATURES. AFTER A WEAK RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA ROUGHLY MONDAY MORE CHAOS SNEAKS INTO THE FLOW.
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS FROM SHORTWAVES OCCUR FROM HERE ON. FLOW
MAY GAIN A SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL PATTERN WHICH FARTHER INCREASES THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS FROM FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES AND THE
LIKELIHOOD FOR CHANGE IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. GAH


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CATEGORY: MAINLY VFR... HIGH MVFR POSSIBLE.

SYNOPSIS: GUSTY POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
CYCLE. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT TO ALL VFR WITH MVFR
POSSIBLE. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AEC


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PHILLIPS...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY...GARFIELD...
MCCONE...PETROLEUM.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.