Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Glasgow, MT

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FXUS65 KGGW 042103
AFDGGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT
203 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE LATEST BOUGHT OF ARCTIC AIR PUSHES
EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL TURN
FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST. MILD PACIFIC AIR MOVING INTO
ALBERTA AND PARTS OF MONTANA TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST AS A
SURFACE LEE-SIDE TROUGH PUSHES EAST. THEN ON FRIDAY...A CLIPPER
SYSTEM CROSSES SASK AND PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE NE ZONES
LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE
IN FROM THE NW. IT WILL BE THE LAST COLD NIGHT IN THIS STRETCH FOR
MOST.

THURSDAY...THE LEE-SIDE TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH THE AREA WITH WEST
WINDS ADVECTING IN THE WARMER AIR.

THURSDAY NIGHT...THE CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND HELP TO
HOLD TEMPERATURES UP. EXPECT TEMPS ONLY TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
20S MOST LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER AND THICKEN BUT CONTINUED
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE 40S TO AROUND 50.
PRECIPITATION WITH A CLIPPER LATE IN THE DAY SHOULD STAY TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST. TFJ

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY UNTOUCHED AS IT WILL REMAIN
DOMINATED BY WARM AND DRY UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A LARGE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW FRIDAY
NIGHT MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SNOW SHOWER BUT OTHERWISE
THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES...AND THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK.
WILL EXPECT HIGHS IN MAY AREAS TO REACH THE 50S PERHAPS AS SOON AS
SUNDAY. MALIAWCO

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS DOMINATED BY A WARM AND
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THANKS TO AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN STATES. A FEW MINOR DISTURBANCES SLIDE THROUGH THE
FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT BUT THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
SO LIMITED THAT ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK...A CHANGE IN PATTERN MIGHT BRING A MORE
ORGANIZED CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTH...BUT MODEL
CAMPS ARE DIVIDED ON THIS. EVEN THOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR THIS WOULD
BE RELATIVELY LOW...STARTED TO TREND POPS AND TEMPERATURES A BIT
IN THAT DIRECTION TO SHOW THIS CHANCE...EVEN IF IT IS REMOTE. GFS
AND DGEX CUT A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH THROUGH THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
AND HIGH PLAINS...WHILE THE EC AND CMC KEEP US IN A DRY RIDGE.

OVERALL...EXPECTING A VERY PLEASANT EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
BMICKELSON


&&

.AVIATION...
FLIGHT CONDITIONS: VFR. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY.

WINDS: LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME WEST AT 5 TO 15 KTS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TFJ

&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW




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