Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 230810
AFDGYX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
410 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT OFF INTO THE
MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION BY
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. LONG CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP RAINFALL INTO OUR
NECK OF THE WOODS TODAY.

AS OF 0730Z...THE MAIN BAND OF RAINFALL ALONG WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDER IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS BAND WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AND AFFECT MUCH OF THE CWA WITH A
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL. ANOTHER AREA OF RAINFALL
OFF THE MID COAST OF MAINE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WRAP BACK
WESTWARD ONTO THE MAINLAND THIS MORNING AS WELL. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH THE BEST POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION. ISOLATED THUNDER APPEARS
LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES AS MARGINAL INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS AS DEEP THETA-E MAX IMPINGES ON THE AREA...MAINLY THIS
MORNING.

THEREAFTER...THE PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY BECOME LIGHTER AND
MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE. WE EXPECT ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL TODAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH THE RAINFALL FROM THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED RIVER FLOODING ISSUES.
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...SERIOUS FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT
FORESEEN AT THIS TIME.

IT WILL REMAIN WINDY TODAY. CURRENT WIND SPEEDS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MIXING HEIGHTS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND MAY DECIDE TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA
IF IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL MIX BETTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE WELL EAST OF CAPE COD TONIGHT. IT
WILL REMAIN WINDY AND SHOWERY...BUT THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION
WILL HAVE ENDED BY EVENING. OVERALL...NOT REALLY A PLEASANT NIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND A RAW NORTH WIND.

A BETTER DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER
AWAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ONLY CHANCY...BUT CLOUDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE PLENTIFUL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRI NIGHT WILL SEE UPPER LOW PRES TRANSITIONING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. S/WV RIDGING BRIEFLY CROSSES THE AREA EARLY
SAT...ALLOWING FOR SOME DRYING AND PERHAPS PARTIAL CLEARING. THIS
IS SHORT LIVED THOUGH...AS A NRN STREAM S/WV TROF RACES OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA AND DRIVES A COLD FNT ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. THIS
WILL BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS EARLY SUN...BEFORE DOWNSLOPING FLOW
DRIES OUT THE COASTAL PLAIN. COOL...MOIST...CYCLONIC FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW WILL KEEP THE MTNS LOCKED IN NW UPSLOPE INTO MON
HOWEVER. EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO LINGER THRU SUN THERE...WITH
SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

TROF FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT OUT MON...WITH RIDGING SETTING UP IN
ITS WAKE. THE REGION WILL TRANSITION TO SW RETURN FLOW...AND SEE
SOME SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM...ELY LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO PUMP SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND...WITH RNFL HEAVY AT TIMES MOVING S TO N
THRU THE TERMINALS ALONG THE COAST. FARTHER INLAND AND KHIE AND
KLEB RNFL WILL BE LIGHTER...AND SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF IFR ARE NOT
EXPECTED. THAT LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO LEAD TO LLWS ALONG THE
COAST AND IMMEDIATELY INLAND THRU THE MID MORNING HOURS. IN
ADDITION SOME NELY SFC GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AS HEAVY SHRA
LIFT NWD. AS BAND OF PCPN LIFTS NWD THIS AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY IFR
WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR CIGS.

LONG TERM...SHOULD SEE A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT SAT TO VFR
CONDITIONS...EXCEPT FOR THE MTNS WHERE SOME LINGERING MVFR IS
POSSIBLE. LATE SAT INTO SUN A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A COLD
FNT THRU NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF MVFR WITH
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE MTNS. UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES MVFR
CIGS IN THE MTNS THRU SUN. HIGH PRES TAKES CONTROL OF THE REGION
MON...WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STORM WARNINGS FOR THE OCEAN WATERS UNTIL MIDDAY AS
LOW LEVEL JET ALLOW FOR NORTHERLY GUSTS AROUND 50 KT. GALES FOR
THE BAYS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY WANE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SAT INTO SUN AS A
QUICK MOVING LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FNT CROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
LOCATIONS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES. WHILE THIS RAIN WILL NOT FALL
QUICKLY ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING... THE CUMULATIVE EFFECT OF
THIS MUCH RAIN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING
SOME STREAMS AND SMALLER RIVERS INTO FLOOD. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY...WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR. WE DO EXPECT URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING TODAY WITH
THE ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES THAT ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POCKETS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASHOVER WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY AROUND THE TIME OF THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDE. TIDES ARE
ASTRONOMICALLY LOW AND MAJOR PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
     018>028.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NHZ004-006-008>010-013-
     014.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-153.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-152-154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...LEGRO
AVIATION...EKSTER/LEGRO
MARINE...EKSTER/LEGRO



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