Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FXUS61 KGYX 170955
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
555 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the west this morning then
hold south of New England through Wednesday. A cold front will
approach from the west Thursday then cross the region Thursday
night. High pressure will build in from the west on Friday and
will hold over the region through the upcoming weekend. A slow
moving area of low pressure will approach from the west next
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

600 AM...For this ESTF update...only minor adjustments to near
term grids that reflect satellite low cloud trend and latest
mesonet.

Prev disc...
At 06z...a 1028 millibar high was centered over Ohio. Outside of
some patchy low clouds trapped below the subsidence
inversion...skies were clear across the area on GOES composite
imagery. After a chilly but sunny start...temperatures should
rebound into the 50s by afternoon across the forecast area. We
should see a few warm air advection clouds arrive by
afternoon...mainly over northern and mountain sections...as a
shortwave impulse and associated surface system move into
Quebec.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
We`ll continue to see a few clouds mainly over northern and
mountain sections tonight with the weak system over Quebec as
a trailing cold front drops into the area. Lows should be
similar to this morning in most locations. On Wednesday...we`ll
see sunshine mixed with a few clouds at times as the weak cold
front returns to our north as a warm front. It`ll turn milder
with temperatures averaging a good ten degrees above normal for
the date. Highs will range from the lower 60s along the
international border to near 70 over southern and coastal
sections.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The long dry and mild weather pattern to continue through this
weekend. There is the potential for beneficial shower activity
early next week.

A large dome of high pressure will dominate the region with
mainly clear skies and dry conditions Wednesday night. It will
not be as chilly as previous nights with lows mainly in the
lower to mid 40s in most communities.

Yet another moisture starved cold front will approach from the
northwest on Thursday. Ahead of this system, a brisk southwest
flow will allow for H8 temperatures to reach +8C. With mainly
sunny conditions and good mixing, this should allow readings
into the upper 60s and lower 70s across Maine and New Hampshire
which is well above normal for this time of the year.

An increasing northwest flow behind the departing front will
allow for a brief cool off period on Friday. However, strong
downsloping will still send temperatures well into the 60s over
southern areas, a good 10 degrees above normal.

The large area of high pressure will be situated over New
England on Saturday. A further moderating trend will begin as
the flow switches to the southwest with the surface ridge moving
off the coastline. The onshore flow may lead to some low
cloudiness, especially along and near the coastline late in the
weekend. By early next week, models continue to slowly come in
better agreement with a slow moving trough approaching the east
coast. Plenty of moisture will potentially move poleward from
the tropical Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico to bring well
needed precipitation to the region next week.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /through Wednesday/...VFR.

Long Term...VFR conditions expected. However, low clouds off the
Gulf of Maine may lead to lowering ceilings, mainly along the
coast next Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Wednesday/...Winds and seas expected to
remain below small craft for the period. However...southwest
flow will develop tonight with a few gusts to near 20 kt
expected over the outer waters.

Long Term...SCAs may be needed Thursday along and ahead
approaching front as a southwesterly gradient increases over
the waters. Northwesterly winds may reach SCA thresholds behind
the departing front as well on Friday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

ES


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