Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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000
FXHW60 PHFO 312006
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
ISLANDS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERY WEATHER...DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER AND MORE STABLE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FAR NORTH NORTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA REMAINS
IN PLACE TODAY. A STABLE TRADE WIND PATTERN IS BRINGING FAIRLY DRY
WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF MOISTURE
IS SEEN JUST UPSTREAM OF THE BIG ISLAND AND AS THIS DRIFTS INTO THE
WINDWARD BIG ISLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THERE. ELSEWHERE...A NORMAL MID
SUMMER TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO THIS EVENING.

EXPECT HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY ACROSS THE
STATE AS THIS MOISTURE PLUME MOVES IN. ALONG WITH THE MUGGIER
CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
CONGREGATING ALONG WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.  THE MOISTURE VALUES
WILL PEAK OUT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON THE BIG ISLAND...AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS...AND THIS TIMING
SHOULD MATCH WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE RAIN.  THERE IS
MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
PERIOD...ENOUGH TO MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR WINDWARD
AREAS...BUT NOT UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING LOOKS MINIMAL AS WELL.

AT THIS TIME HERE ARE THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WINDWARD AREAS
OF THE BIG ISLAND ARE LOOKING AT 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL SPREAD OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...MOSTLY FALLING ON FRIDAY. WINDWARD SIDES OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS ARE ANTICIPATING GENERALLY A HALF AN INCH TO
POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. OTHER AREAS...GENERALLY LESS THAN
HALF AN INCH.

DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL INVADE FROM THE EAST BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AS RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...LIMITING TRADE SHOWERS.
MODELS SHOW CONTINUED STABLE TRADE WIND PATTERN FOR THE
STATE...KEEPING TROPICAL MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
PASSING SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT MAINLY
WINDWARD SLOPES. INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE BIG ISLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. AIRMET SIERRA MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND AT THAT TIME. TYPICAL TRADE WIND CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS REMAINING CONFINED PRIMARILY TO WINDWARD
SLOPES.

DUE TO CONTINUED MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS...AIRMET
TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE REMAINS IN EFFECT...COVERING THE
AREAS OVER AND IMMEDIATELY SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOCALLY STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS...25 KNOT WINDS AND ROUGH...CHOPPY SEAS...TO THE WATERS
AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.

A SMALL TO MODERATELY LARGE SWELL FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SHOULD
ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF SMALL SOUTH SWELLS
WILL KEEP ARRIVING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. PREVAILING TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHORT-PERIOD...CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST-FACING
SHORES.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BRENCHLEY
AVIATION...FOSTER





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