Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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000
FXHW60 PHFO 250150
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING FRONT IS NEAR THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL...AND IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
ARE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH A DRIER AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GIVE WAY TO
NORTHEAST TRADES TOMORROW...WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER OR NEAR THE ISLANDS
THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT FRONTAL SYSTEM IS NEAR THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL THIS
AFTERNOON AND WE STILL EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CONTINUE TO LINGER BEHIND
IT...DESPITE PRECIPITABLE WATERS /PW/ VALUES OF JUST UNDER AN INCH
ON THE AFTERNOON LIHUE SOUNDING. THE MIMIC TOTAL PW SHOWS DRIER AIR
STILL NORTH OF KAUAI SINKING SOUTH...SO EXPECT FEWER SHOWERS LATER
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS IS MOVING TO THE
EAST...AND WILL BRING NORTHEAST WINDS BACK TO THE ISLANDS TOMORROW.
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...SO EXPECT TRADES TO GIVE WAY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LATER
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER OR NEAR THE ISLANDS THURSDAY
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. THE ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE GFS...BUT BOTH
MODELS BRING THE FRONT DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WINDS AT THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS ARE ELEVATED BUT REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AT THE SUMMITS WILL DECREASE
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...BEFORE RAMPING UP AGAIN WITH THE
NEXT SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH THE THURSDAY NIGHT EVENT...WINDS
MAY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS AT THE SUMMITS.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMETS FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
MAUI COUNTY DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE PERIODICALLY BRINGING MVFR
CONDITIONS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LARGE WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TO BRING WARNING LEVEL SURF
TO VARIOUS NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES...AND ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO
SOME WEST FACING SHORES. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE...WHICH WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO MORE CHANGES IN THE WARNING/ADVISORY MAKEUP FOR
TOMORROW. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE THROUGH MONDAY.

THE CURRENT SWELL...COMBINED WITH SOME STRONGER NORTH WINDS ARE
BRINGING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS TO ALL OF THE
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE SEAS AND WINDS DROP SOME
SUNDAY...EXPECT SOME AREAS TO DROP OUT OF THE SCA...WHILE OTHER
AREAS MAY BE EXTENDED.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-KONA-KOHALA.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SUNDAY FOR WAIANAE COAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS.

&&

$$

M BALLARD




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