Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
FXUS66 KHNX 032230
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
230 PM PST Sat Dec 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will keep dry conditions and seasonable
temperatures through early next week. A colder airmass will push
into the region by midweek. A low pressure system moving to the
north of our area will bring a chance for some precipitation
mainly from Fresno County northward by Friday.
.DISCUSSION...Sunny skies prevailing across our area with the
usual hazy conditions in the San Joaquin Valley after a frosty
morning with several locations in the valley reporting lows
between 28 and 32 DEG F. SREF indicating high pressure will
continue to push inland tonight and Sunday resulting in decreased
northerly flow. This will allow for some temperature recovery in
the valley and as a result a freeze is not expected tonight
although patchy frost will still be possible on Sunday morning.
Height rises, clear skies and light winds will provide for more
favorable conditions for fog to form in the valley tonight;
however, with patches of dense fog possible by daybreak.
12Z WRF indicating an upper low pushes into the PAC NW on Monday
which will result in more of a westerly flow over our area and
bring increased high clouds as RH progs are showing increased
high level moisture on Monday. The low is progged to drop into
the Great Basin on Tuesday pushing a dry cold front through
Central CA. This would bring another surge of cooler air to our
area and provide for the potential for a freeze in the San Joaquin
Valley on Wednesday morning as several locations in the valley are
progged to drop to the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Some moderation in temepratures is expected to take place later
next week as a shortwave ridge builds into CA. A strong upper low
is progged to push into the PAC NW by Friday spreading increased
clouds southward into our area and a slight chance to low chance
of precipitation mainly from Fresno County northward. The GFS,
GEM, ECMWF and their ensemble means are still not in agreement
with how far south the deeper moisture will become situated so
confidence remains marginal at best. Ridging is then progged to
return to Central CA by next weekend as this system moves into
the intermountain west region.
.AVIATION...Areas of MVFR visibilities due to haze and mist
across the San Joaquin Valley, with mountain obscuration possible
through 17z. Otherwise,VFR conditions can be expected across the
central California interior during the next 24 hours.
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...On Sunday December 4 2016... Fireplace/Wood
Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno...
Kern... Kings... Madera and Tulare Counties. Further information
is available at Valleyair.org
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.