Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 030930
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
230 AM PDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA
TODAY...OTHERWISE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AREA IS WEDGED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
TODAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER CALIFORNIA. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SIERRA HOWEVER THE NAM
IS THE MOST BULLISH. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS FOR AFTERNOON
THUNDER JUST IN CASE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER STRONG
PACIFIC SYSTEM SWING TO THE EAST OUT ALONG 32N/130W AND THIS
FEATURE WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER PRODUCER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEEPENING THIS LOW AND MOVING IT
TO A POSITION JUST WEST OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST BY
THURSDAY AND THEN MOVING IT ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY.
MOISTURE LOOK PLENTIFUL WITH THIS SYSTEM AND GIVEN THE SPRING TIME
FRAME THE AREA SHOULD GET SOME DECENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS GENERATE QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY OVER THE SIERRA AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT REALLY CRANK OUT SOME IMPRESSIVE
AND WIDESPREAD CAPE VALUE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LIFT AND
AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINE FOR A PRETTY GOOD POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE
EVENT. THIS LOOKS TO BE A MULTIPLE DAY EVENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS
ON FRIDAY THE LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS COLDER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CENTER MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.

BY SATURDAY THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHERN NEVADA HOWEVER RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND A SECONDARY
VORTICITY CENTER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
PER THE GFS MODEL FOR WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AND YOU GUESSED IT,
THUNDERSTORMS. BY LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST. ALL IN ALL A SHOWERY AND THUNDERY PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH
BENEFICIAL BUT LATE SEASON PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AN/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DUDLEY
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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