Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 292100
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE
REGION. BY SUNDAY TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE DURING
NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PAC NW COAST HAS
BROUGHT LOWERING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES TO OUR AREA ALONG WITH
MODERATE WIND GUSTS BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES IN KERN COUNTY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD SEVERAL DEGREES FROM YDAY.
VISIBLE IMAGERY IS INDICATING SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
ACROSS CENTRAL CA. ALSO OF NOTE IS SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE IN
EASTERN FRESNO COUNTY WHICH IS BEING TRANSPORTED TO THE NORTHEAST
AND AWAY FROM THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY.

12Z WRF IS INDICATING A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
OUR CWFA THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE PAC NW.
THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS TONIGHT ALONG THE WEST
SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND BELOW THE PASSES IN KERN
COUNTY ALONG WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE ONGOING COOLING TREND
ACROSS OUR AREA WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE 5-10
DEG F BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. AS THIS IS A DRY SYSTEM...AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN UP AS P-GRADS RELAX AND TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS AS OUR AREA REMAINS UNDER A DRY
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN A TROUGHY PATTERN.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEEPENING THE
UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN CONUS COAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY THEN PUSH THE TROUGH EAST OF CA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW ALONG WITH
LOWERING HEIGHTS WILL BRING ANOTHER WELCOME COOLING TREND TO OUR
AREA. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RECOVERY TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR CLIMO AS HEIGHTS AND DIURNAL
THICKNESSES REBOUND. RH PROGS ARE SHOWING NO SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IMPACTING OUR AREA FOR THE NEXT WEEK SO NO PRECIPITATION
IS ANTICIPATED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR VISIBILITIES CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA DUE TO SMOKE. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AFTER 08Z SUNDAY.

LOCAL GUSTS AROUND 35-40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PASSES AND
CANYONS IN THE KERN COUNTY MTNS/DESERT AND AROUND 30 KTS ALONG THE
WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING. BLDU WITH
LOCAL VIS AROUND 1 MILE OR LESS ALSO POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN THESE
AREAS.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA
INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 08-29      109:1915     79:2010     76:1915     52:1895
KFAT 08-30      109:1988     80:1957     81:2007     49:1966
KFAT 08-31      107:2007     69:1964     75:2007     50:1887

KBFL 08-29      109:1915     77:1911     85:1909     45:1903
KBFL 08-30      108:1988     80:1957     85:1909     45:1912
KBFL 08-31      111:1967     79:1966     80:2007     45:1912
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...BSO
SYNOPSIS...ROWE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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