Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 192007
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
107 PM PDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY. A COOLING TREND WILL OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
BREEZY WINDS LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE
NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 DEGREES WARMER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...WITH THE WARMING TREND RIGHT
ON TRACK. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO
THE MID 80S...BETWEEN 6 AND 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE
OF OCTOBER.

TONIGHT THE REGION WILL SEE A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN
AS 500 MB HEIGHTS FALL AS AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COASTLINE MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO A COOLING TREND AND BREEZY NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM TO 80 DEGREES...WHILE ON TUESDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AT THE SAME
TIME SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING
BREEZY NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS MAINLY TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
VALLEY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT WIND GUSTS BETWEEN
20 AND 25 MPH.

LASTLY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR FAR NORTHERN MERCED AND MARIPOSA
COUNTIES...WITH LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE IN YOSEMITE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE HIGH RES ARW...NMM...AS
WELL AS THE SREF ALL INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF DRIZZLE FOR
WESTERN KERN COUNTY.

WITH ALL OF THIS SAID...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MEDIUM WITH
ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS ACTUALLY OBSERVING ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. THE SREF IS ONLY INDICATING LESS THAN A 10 % CHANCE
OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...SO IF RAIN DOES FALL...SPRINKLES MAY
BE ALL WE GET.

OTHERWISE...AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OUT OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS STILL ONLY
MEDIUM WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE NCEP ENSEMBLE 500 MB
HEIGHTS INDICATE LOW PREDICTABILITY WITH DAYS 4 THROUGH 7. ALL
THIS MEANS IS THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DISAGREEMENT
WITH REGARDS TO THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 10-19       92:1921     59:1949     61:1979     30:1949
KFAT 10-20       94:1927     56:1941     59:2012     35:1949
KFAT 10-21       93:2003     58:1941     60:1992     34:1949

KBFL 10-19       96:1973     60:1949     67:1979     35:1908
KBFL 10-20       97:1927     60:1910     63:1978     33:1908
KBFL 10-21       94:2003     62:2004     65:1976     32:1906
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...RILEY
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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