Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 171650
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
950 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
INCREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN AND NEAR THE SOUTH END OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY TODAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DISTRICT TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND BE FOLLOWED BY
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE SIERRA. EASTER SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER.
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH END OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY HAVE BEEN
RUNNING AS MUCH AS 6 DEGREES AHEAD OF PERSISTENCE FOR THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG
134W...AND THE HANFORD WARNING/FORECAST AREA IS WARMING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE WARMED THE SOUTH END OF THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS
A COUPLE OF DEGREES TODAY.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS FORECAST LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH QPF WITH
THIS STORM...AND THIS MORNING/S 14Z RFC QPF FOLLOWS THIS TREND.

THE GLOBAL-COMPOSITE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR
44N/166W...SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. THIS LOW WILL BRING A
BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 317 AM PDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...TEMPS ARE TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE CWA COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING EXCEPTIONALLY WARM
WEATHER TO THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A PREVAILING SW FLOW
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT CARRIES IN SOME HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF CIRRUS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS RATHER INNOCENTLY THROUGH THE CWA
TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY BREEZES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
SJ VLY AND THROUGH AND BELOW THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAIN PASSES.
OTHERWISE...THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED ON MOISTURE WITH LITTLE
MORE THAN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE DISTRICT THRU
FRIDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA FRIDAY FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING TSTMS. A REPEAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA CREST ON SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. OTHERWISE...
A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL RESIDE OVER CA SATURDAY. TEMP TRENDS
WILL REMAIN STATIC FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BUT STILL AVERAGE
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH AFTERNOON WHILE OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL FINALLY BE MORE SEASONABLE.

EASTER SUNDAY WILL WARM BACK UP AGAIN AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REBUILDS OVER CENTRAL CA. THIS RIDGE WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND
GET NUDGED EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY THE APPROACH OF A
MUCH DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MONDAY. ALTHOUGH AN INCREASE
IN ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN BY THEN AND SEND SHALLOW MARINE
AIR INTO MERCED COUNTY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAX TEMPS THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE SJ VLY ON MONDAY WILL BE AS WARM IF NOT WARMER THAN
EASTER SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES.

THE GFS AND ECM HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUT KID YOU NOT WITH ITS ORIGINS IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA...ITS ARRIVAL WILL BE MARKED BY A DRAMATIC
CHANGE TO COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE SJ VLY AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...ESP
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH TUE EVENING. QPF WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
BUT NONETHELESS A WELCOME CHANGE AND A SMALL ACCUMULATION OF
SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SIERRA ABOVE 6K FEET BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH A DUSTING POSSIBLE DOWN TO ABOUT 5K FEET. ADDITIONALLY...
BLUSTERY WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH AND BELOW THE MOUNTAIN PASSES
OF KERN COUNTY AND ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SJ VLY...TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPS TUESDAY AND WED WILL AVERAGE A
GOOD 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY.

BY NEXT THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE EXITING INTO
THE GREAT BASIN AND A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESIDE OVER
CA. WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR WED NIGHT...PREDAWN TEMPS THURSDAY IN
THE CHILLIEST LOCATIONS OF THE SJ VLY COULD DIP BRIEFLY INTO THE
UPPER 30S. OTHERWISE...TEMPS THURSDAY WILL WARM BACK TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON THURSDAY APRIL 17 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
KERN COUNTY.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 04-17       94:1980     58:1933     58:1992     34:1896
KFAT 04-18       95:1910     51:1955     62:1939     36:1941
KFAT 04-19       93:2009     54:1967     64:1938     35:1955

KBFL 04-17       95:1954     60:1975     61:1954     34:1922
KBFL 04-18       98:1910     55:1923     63:1954     35:1922
KBFL 04-19       98:1910     54:1967     62:1938     38:1996

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SANGER
AVN/FW...JEB
PREV DISCUSSION...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD







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