Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 280033 AAA
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
533 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AIR QUALITY SECTION.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY BRING INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND ISOLATED MOUNTAIN AND DESERT THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE GOLDEN STATE IS BASKING UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO A DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THAT IS CURRENTLY UNDERCUTTING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. SJ VLY RESIDENTS HAVE BEEN COMFORTED BY SHALLOW
MARINE PUSHES SINCE LAST THURSDAY BUT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THIS IS
ABOUT TO CHANGE. THAT ONSHORE FLOW IS WEAKER TODAY AND IT WILL
CONTINUE TO DWINDLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE STATE AND A SURFACE THERMAL
TROUGH SETS UP NEAR THE COAST. THE MARINE LAYER WILL TAKE ANOTHER
DAY TO COMPLETELY MIX OUT OF THE SJ VLY. BUT AFTER TUESDAY THE
SIZZLE OF SUMMER WILL BE BACK...AND IT WILL RETURN WITH A
VENGEANCE. WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IS LIKELY IN THE SJ
VLY...LOWER FOOTHILLS AND THE KERN COUNTY DESERT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

ONCE THE HOTTER WEATHER RETURNS...THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL
GRADUALLY FOLLOW AS WINDS ALOFT BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY. SOME OF THE
MODELS FORECAST THIS TO HAPPEN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
ALL AGREE THAT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR WILL BE FULLY ENTRENCHED
IN THE MONSOON BY FRIDAY. DURING THE TRANSITIONAL PERIOD...NAMELY
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT POP UP MIGHT
PRODUCE DRY LIGHTNING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERT. AS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE DEEPENS LATE IN THE WEEK...THE CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE...AND SO WILL THE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

ONCE HERE...THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY BE SLOW TO LEAVE. HOWEVER
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS DO HINT THAT THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
MORE WESTERLY AGAIN BY DAYS 6 AND 7 AND HELP DRY OUT THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND DIMINISH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THAT
IS SOMETHING THAT IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS CENTRAL CA
WILL BE CLOUDIER AND NOTICEABLY MORE HUMID TOWARD THE END OF THIS
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON TUESDAY JULY 28 2015... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO AND MADERA COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-27      114:1933     83:1941     79:1933     52:1897
KFAT 07-28      110:1980     89:1941     82:1980     55:1892
KFAT 07-29      113:1898     87:1896     78:2003     57:1950

KBFL 07-27      117:1933     85:1965     83:1980     52:1914
KBFL 07-28      118:1908     85:1941     84:1931     50:1914
KBFL 07-29      114:1908     87:1965     86:2003     52:1914
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...WP

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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