Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 101654 AAC
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1054 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

.UPDATE...
For 18Z TAFS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Rest of Today)
Issued at 910 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

Visible imagery indicates a clear sky over the TN valley owing to
full sunshine potential. After morning lows in the teens to lower
20s, a rather quick recovery into the upper 20s to lower 30s has
taken place as of 15Z. Few significant changes were necessary to the
forecast for today. Will go with forecast highs in the lower to
middle 40s given present conditions and a transition from weak
cold advection this morning to weak warm advection this afternoon.

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 245 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

The large sfc high will begin to move east tonight allowing for winds
to become southeast. This should keep mrng lows on Sunday a little
warmer than this mrng, mainly in the mid to upper 20s. Skies should
also continue to be mostly clr.

By Sunday aftn the sfc gradient will increase across the TN valley
as a sfc low/cdfnt moves ne across the midwest and into the Great
Lakes. This will increase southerly winds across the cwa by the aftn
along with increasing dewpoints. No pcpn is expected on Sunday mrng
or aftn. However by Sunday night and into Monday mrng, the chc of
shra will increase as the previously mentioned cdfnt approaches the
Tn valley. 8H winds will increase to 50/60 kts on Sunday night and
Monday mrng but CAPEs and lapse rates remains very weak. Thus for
now will keep all pcpn as shra, although would not surprised if there
would be a few rumbles of thunder on Sunday night and early Monday
mrng. Attm no svr wx is expected during this timeframe.

The chc of shra will begin to taper off by Monday aftn along with a
weakening low level jet, as the cdfnt moves out of the cwa by Monday
night. However models disagree on how far south the cdfnt will go
Monday night. The NAM pretty much ends the pcpn while the GFS and
ECMWF keeps the shra activity lingering on throughout much of Monday
night. For now will keep with the blended models and maintain a low
pop for Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

Tuesday through Saturday

A somewhat messy and uncertain pattern is expected for the long term
period. Models have been anything but consistent when it comes to
the synoptic pattern. This has caused some flip flopping with the
cold/warm temps and in turn, causes some uncertainty on precip type
as these systems approach.

Tuesday starts off with the remnants of a frontal boundary lingering
to our south but our southern and south eastern counties might be on
the northern fringe of this boundary and may see some light rain
through the day and into Wednesday. The continued westerly flow
aloft and southerly flow at the surface will push highs Tuesday into
the upper 50s and slightly cooler on Wednesday as the boundary moves
east, into the lower 50s. Lows Tuesday night will be in the upper
30s to lower 40s.

A deep upper low will move north of the Great Lakes on Wednesday.
There isn`t much of a surface feature with this but there will be a
colder and drier northwest flow by Wednesday night. This will drop
lows into the lower 30s. There could be some lingering precip late
Wed night but confidence is too low at this point and have removed
the pops and any mention of frozen precip.

High pressure and dry weather return for Thursday with highs in the
lower 40s. The next system to watch starts to develop as a deep
trough over the desert southwest with surface cyclogenesis over the
panhandle of Texas moves into the Great Lakes region. This could be
an interesting weather situation given the possibility of cold air
lingering as the precip approaches Thursday night (no frozen precip
in the forecast at this time). This also could be a prolonged rain
producer with pockets of heavy rain possible. It`s too far out to get
into any more details at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1054 AM CST Sat Dec 10 2016

VFR flight weather conditions are expected during the next 24 hours.
Light northeast flow will become southeast early on Sunday.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM...007
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...17


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