Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 301720
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1220 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1110 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TN RIVER AS THE MCV MOVES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AL.

AFTER THIS MORNINGS BATCH OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LOCATIONS
COULD SEE A DRY PERIOD INTO THIS AFTERNOON WHEN MORE STORMS DEVELOPS.
HOWEVER...STORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL TN AHEAD OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY OFF OF DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IN THE CLEARING. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ALONG WITH A SFC BOUNDARY TO OUR NW AND ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE SOURCE OF LIFT.
WILL SEE HOW WELL THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS FROM THIS MORNINGS
CONVECTION AND HOW MUCH ITS ABLE TO DESTABILIZE UNDERNEATH THE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.

LOW WET BULB LEVELS AROUND 9-1O,000 FT ALLOWED FOR SEVERE HAIL IN
THIS MORNINGS STORMS. THIS AFTERNOON...SHORT TERM MODELS SHOW WET
BULB LEVELS REMAIN AROUND THAT HEIGHT...BUT WITH DRY AIR FILTERING
IN THE MID LEVELS WHICH MAY KEEP THE COVERAGE AT BAY. WITH HOW MANY
LINGERING BOUNDARIES THERE ARE EXACT COVERAGE MAY VARY...ESPECIALLY
DEPENDING ON IF WE REACH THE ~2000 J/KG CAPE THE MODELS PROJECT.

AS FOR THE GRIDS...MADE UPDATES TO THE POP AND CLOUD COVER FOR THIS
MORNING INTO THIS EARLY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR ON GOING CONVECTION
AND SATELLITE TRENDS. WILL MONITOR TEMPS DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER
TRENDS.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE COVERAGE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WILL CONTINUE THE -TSRA AT KHSV AND KMSL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN SCT AND BKN AT
2500-3500 FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE SHOWER COVERAGE
AND HOW MUCH WE CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD BE DRY OVERNIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WED AFT WITH A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING IN.

LN

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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