Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 300457 AAB
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1157 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 253 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015/
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROF/CDFNT. ATTM THE CDFNT EXTENDED FROM A SFC LOW OVER NRN TX
THRU NW MO AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE TRICKY PART IS WHAT TO DO
WITH POPS THIS EVENING. ALL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE BEST CHC OF PCPN
OVER MY CWA WILL BE ARND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS WILL GO WITH A LOW POP
FOR MY WRN ZONES BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY
TONIGHT BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME ELEVATED TSRA MAY BE
POSSIBLE...AIDED BY A 50KT 8H JET. THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY SVR WX
OVERNIGHT...ONLY SOME GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL. TIME SECTIONS ARE ONLY
SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...BUT STILL MAY
SEE SOME BRIEF HVY RAIN IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

THE CDFNT SHOULD BE PUSHING OUT OF THE CWA ARND 12Z MONDAY WITH ONLY
SOME LINGERING -SHRA FOR THE MRNG HOURS. THE SUN SHOULD COME OUT BY
MONDAY AFTN WITH CLR SKIES MONDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK HIGH BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.

TUESDAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MOST OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY.
HOWEVER DUE TO RETURN FLOW MAY HAVE SOME WAA PCPN ESPECIALLY BY THE
AFTN/EVENING. WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT LOW POPS.

WEDNESDAY THRU THURSDAY...LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES MAY MOVE
ACROSS OUR CWA. TIMING OF THESE WAVES...AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
...IS STILL FAIRLY TRICKY THIS FAR OUT IN THE FCST. ATTM THE BLENDED
MODELS ARE BROAD BRUSHING THIS PERIOD WITH CHC POPS.

FRIDAY...GFS SHOWS A STALLED CDFNT OVER KY/TN BY 12Z. BY FRIDAY NIGHT
A SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO RIDE ALONG THE CDFNT WHICH WILL DRAG THE
CDFNT THRU THE TN VALLEY BY SATURDAY MRNG AS IT MOVES EAST.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME SCT -SHRA SATURDAY MRNG...SKIES
SHOULD CLR OUT BY SATURDAY AFTN WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A LITTLE COOLER TEMPS.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 06Z TAFS...AN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL PROVIDE
FOR ONGOING TSRA CHANCES UNTIL AROUND 09Z AT MSL AND FROM 07Z-10Z AT
HSV. MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY DUE TO LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 15Z AT MSL AND 16Z AT HSV. VFR AND GENERALLY SKC
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE 15Z-16Z TIME FRAME AT BOTH
TERMINALS.

TT

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.



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