Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KHUN 051125 AAA
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
625 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015/
QUIET WX PREVAILS ACROSS THE CNTRL TN VALLEY FOR THIS EARLY SAT
MORNING...ALBEIT CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT HUMID AS DEW PT TRENDS
HOVER CLOSE TO THE 70F FOR SOME AREAS. WITH SFC FLOW JUST ABOUT
DECOUPLED...THIS HAS ALLOWED SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG TO FORM IN SOME
LOCATIONS...AND THIS GENERAL PATTERN SHOULD HOLD GOING JUST PAST
DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE FOG PRONE VALLEY AREAS/NEAR WATER.
ONCE ANY LINGERING FOG FINALLY DIMINISHES HEADING MORE INTO THE LATE
MORNING HRS...A RETURN TO MORE OF THE SAME BASIC WX REGIME OF THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS XPCTED...AS SEASONABLY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS
ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP. THE FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE THE WELL ADVERTISED WEDGE FRONT OUT OF THE E...AS
A BIT MORE MOISTURE/LIFT TRANSLATES WWD ACROSS THE MID/SRN ATLANTIC
STATES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN ISO/SCT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE CNTRL/ERN
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING PERIOD. THIS SFC
AXIS/BOUNDARY BECOMES A LITTLE MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY
SUN...WITH ISO/SCT RAIN CHANCES BECOMING MORE AREA WIDE...ALTHOUGH
THE SLIGHTLY BETTER POPS REMAIN POSITIONED OVER THE CNTRL/ERN ZONES.
OUTSIDE OF ANY PRECIP...OVERALL CONDITIONS/TEMPS LOOK TO REMAIN
SEASONABLY WARM/HUMID THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD...AIDED BY A WEAK
RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY REGIONS.

THE INITIAL WEDGE AXIS FROM THE E LOOKS TO DIMINISH/WASH OUT GOING
INTO THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY...WHICH FOR NOW LOOKS TO MAINTAIN A DRY
WX FORECAST INTO MON NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES THEN LOOK TO SLOWLY RETURN
TO THE CNTRL TN VALLEY STARTING TUE...AS A GENERAL WEAKNESS ALOFT
LOOKS TO POSITION ITSELF ACROSS THE SRN ATLANTIC BASIN INTO THE ERN
GULF. THE LATTER HALF OF THE GLOBAL MODEL SUITES REMAIN CONSISTENT
WITH THE INFLOW OF GULF MOISTURE INTO THE SE REGION STRENGTHENING AS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK APPROACHES...AS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT
BEGINS TO DIVE SWD ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. AS THIS SFC BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO MOVE SWD OVER THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY STATES THU INTO
FRI...SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS LOOK TO INCREASE ALONG/WELL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT INTO THE MID TN VALLEY. LATEST MODEL RUNS THEN
SHOW THE COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY ON
FRI...WITH PRECIP TAPERING OFF SOME FROM THE NW BEHIND THE EXITING
BOUNDARY...AS SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR OUT OF THE N TRIES TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT WEEKEND.

09

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 12Z TAFS...

AFTER MORNING FOG LIFTS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT UNDER
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RATHER SPORADIC OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...HOWEVER...THE FOG/MIST SEEMS VERY SHALLOW
AND WILL KEEP IFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE TAFS. THIS WILL QUICKLY
LIFT AS SURFACE HEATING BEGINS...LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS OUT OF THE EAST. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ADD MENTION IN THE
TAFS. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING...REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY
MORNING.

73

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.