Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
FXUS64 KHUN 301113 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
613 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016
For 12Z TAFs.
(Issued 254 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016)
A frontal boundary can be observed in analysis stretching
from the Ohio Valley southwest into northwestern Arkansas, well north
of the area. Convection that pushed east towards I-65 earlier this
evening has dissipated. This was produced by one of the many
shortwaves that are developing and moving northeast ahead of the
front. Dewpoint depressions in most locations are already only 0 to
3 degrees. With mainly high clouds expected and possibly some breaks
in cloud cover through daybreak, could see patchy fog developing.
Thus, included patchy fog in grids until around 8 AM.
Models develop additional shower/storm activity toward noon and into
the afternoon hours with yet another disturbance ahead of the front,
mainly near and south of the Tennessee River. The upper level pattern
and surface patterns do not change much in mesoscale models until
around Wednesday. Until then, a weak longwave trough axis will
remain over the Ohio Valley. However, the southern portion of this
trough axis will shift further east from northern Arkansas to
Southern Middle Tennessee early next week. The end result will be
scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing through Tuesday night.
This should keep highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s, a bit warmer
than the past few days, as upper level ridging builds back into
northern Alabama on Tuesday night into Wednesday night. With less
cloud cover progged by models and a stronger upper level ridge in
place, warmer temperatures climbing back into the mid 90s on
Wednesday (and possibly Thursday) seems reasonable. This will also
allow heat index values to climb to between 100 and 105 degrees
Tuesday through Thursday. Some storms could be strong, but the main
threats with stronger storms will be frequent lightning and heavy
Synoptic models hint at a slightly stronger front pushing into
Southern Middle Tennessee Wednesday night into next weekend again.
This will likely raise rain chances again and weaken upper level
ridging over the area, but not sure coverage will be more than
between 30 and 50 percent. More cloud cover and a higher coverage of
precipitation will likely keep high temperatures in the upper 80s to
lower 90s again. Some stronger storms are possible producing gusty
winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours.
For 12Z TAFs: Cluster of +shra moving ewd into parts of ne AL will
remain e of the two main terminals into the daylight hrs. VFR conds
are otherwise xpcted through the period, as mid/high clouds increase
out of the w. Sct shra/tsra are possible this afternoon into the
early evening hrs, but the prob remains fairly low enough to limit
inclusion in the TAFs attm.
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