Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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FXUS64 KHUN 191952

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
252 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Quiet weather across the southern Tennessee Valley this afternoon
with an upper level ridge of high pressure building in from the east.
A weak area of convergence in and along the bankhead National Forest
has triggered some isolated convection -- though it is quickly
dropping ESE into Central Alabama. Thus, with drier air filtering
into the region, dewpoints should drop into the mid to upper 60s by
this evening, resulting in a slightly more comfortable night.
Afternoon Cu will dissipate with the loss of heating and another
mostly clear night is anticipated. Good radiational cooling will take
place after sunset and temperatures will fall into the upper 60s to
lower 70s by early Sunday morning. Given the calm conditions, some
patchy fog is possible in the usual sheltered valleys (Paint Rock,
Flint) and along area lakes and rivers around daybreak.

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

This upper ridge will continue to be the predominant weather feature
across the forecast area for early next week. Strong subsidence will
result in another mostly clear and dry day for Sunday, with even
fewer clouds in the forecast. Have noted some increased thickness
values and temperatures aloft in the model guidance and have
increased temperatures slightly. Think most locations will reach the
low to perhaps mid 90s in a few areas. For Monday, the main concern
will deal with cloud cover with respect to the big Total Solar
Eclipse event early that afternoon. The latest model trends indicate
a fairly typical and dry late August day. There may be a little more
moisture in the atmosphere (thanks to a weak southerly fetch off the
Gulf), but it should generally be a mostly clear day. The only
concern will be some scattered bands of Cu that will develop during
the peak heating of the late morning through mid afternoon which may
obscure the view at a very localized level. Have adjusted the
temperature curve to account for a 3-5 degree cooling during the
event. Still, most locations should reach the low 90s due to ample
heating the rest of the day.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

On Tuesday, as trough digs into the Great Lakes, a sfc low will lift
through sending a cold front into the OH Valley. With this pattern
change weakening the ridge across the Southeast, temps in the lower
90s and moisture returning to the area, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are possible across the TN Valley. Chances will
increase with the approaching front, and are expected to move into
the forecast area Wednesday afternoon/evening. A few strong storms
are possible with the main hazards being heavy rainfall and gusty

Precip will taper off as the front pushes through and drier air
filters in behind it Wednesday night. Sfc high pressure anchored over
Northern MS Valley/Great Lakes will build into the region Thursday
and Friday reinforcing the drier air with dewpoints in the 60s and
even some in the upper 50s in southern middle TN! Daytime temps will
finally be below 90 on Wednesday and to the lower/mid 80s on
Thursday thanks to the front!


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at each terminal through the afternoon
and evening with a few passing clouds as high pressure remains in
place across the area. Late tonight, some light VFR fog is expected
at each terminal, before dissipating after sunrise.





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