Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 020454
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1254 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED AND HUMID CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH A
GOOD CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN. A COLD UPPER LOW WILL DIP ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS LATE IN THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
A FEW SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRYING AND WARMING WILL FOLLOW
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH THE EARLY MORNING UPDATES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE JUST UPSTREAM OF OUR
WESTERNMOST COUNTIES. THE ACTIVITY WAS MOVING TO THE ENE. THERE
WAS ALSO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO OUR SW AND S.

WILL SHOW POPS INCREASING OVERNIGHT...FIRST ACROSS THE PEE DEE
REGION AND I-95 CORRIDOR AND THEN EASTWARD TO THE COAST TOWARD
MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT THERE WILL BE ANY SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...A HEAVY DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

DEEP SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ACROSS GEORGIA WILL DAMPEN AS IT REACHES THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AROUND DAWN. WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE TO SMALL POPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ELEVATED DEWPOINTS...CLOUDS...AND 25 TO 35 KT LOW-LEVEL JETTING
WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL NIGHT. TEMPS WILL NOT STRAY TOO
FAR FROM WHERE THEY ARE EARLY THIS EVE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID
AND UPPER 60S. MIXING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT
FOG DEVELOPMENT...EVEN WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SE ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AND AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN CONUS.
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION
WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SERIES OF FACTORS COME
IN TO PLAY...INCLUDING FAVORABLE UPPER WINDS...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH...AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT...IN ADDITION TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE. COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE POSITIONED MORE OR LESS ALONG THE COAST BY DAYBREAK ON
WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT THAT BULK OF PRECIP WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT ON TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...SURFACE SYSTEM EXITS AS THE PERIOD BEGINS
WHILE ALOFT A MID LEVEL BLOCK WILL START SETTING UP. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA THU...DRIVEN WELL OFF THE COAST BY LARGE 5H
EAST COAST TROUGH/CUTOFF. THIS CUTOFF WILL FORM THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE BLOCK AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SLIDING
OFF TO THE EAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER LOWER MS VALLEY EXPANDS
EAST. MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE LIMITED FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH DEEP WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST FLOW PREVENT ANY MOISTURE
RETURN. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING MOISTURE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...AND AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WED-FRI CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE VERY
LIMITED.

IN ADDITION TO DEEP DRY AIR LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW...AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST SLOWLY EXPANDS EAST...WILL DROP NEAR CLIMO
TEMPS WED BELOW TO WELL BELOW CLIMO THU THROUGH SAT. MID LEVEL
RIDGING AND MIGRATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH EAST WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
RETURNING NEAR CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. INITIALLY VFR PREVAILS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS AND OVC300. POTENTIAL
FOR LOW CIGS TOWARDS DAYBREAK...THUS HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP
FOR MARGINAL MVFR/IFR. AFTER DAYBREAK...VFR WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR IN ANY CONVECTION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AOB 10 KTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 18KT IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE FROM CONVECTION THROUGH
TUESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH THE MORNING UPDATES.

S TO SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. MODEST LOW-LEVEL JETTING
WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT. MAINLY 3 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT WILL NOT LIKELY MAKE IT OFFSHORE BEFORE
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL STAY SW THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE...ALTHOUGH A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT ON TUESDAY MAY SEE WINDS BUMPED UP TO 15 TO 20 KT FOR A
TIME IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR UP TO 5 FT SHOULD WINDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND.
PERIOD BEGINS WITH LOW/FRONT COMBO MOVING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
WITH WESTERLY FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT. SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE ON THU WITH STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING IN
ITS WAKE. PINCHED GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION THU NIGHT AND FRI
WILL PUSH WEST WINDS INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. GRADIENT AND
ADVECTION RELAX ON FRI AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND WINDS
DROP TO 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT WED BUILD TO
3 TO 4 FT THU IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED WIND SPEEDS. REDUCTION IN
SPEEDS LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL LEAD TO SEAS FALLING TO 2 TO 3 FT
FRI.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COLBY
NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...SGL/MJC



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