Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 230459
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1259 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A
SMALL RISK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 PM FRIDAY...VERY LITTLE TO SAY TONIGHT EXCEPT THAT IT WILL
FEEL MORE LIKE MID-SPRING THAN EARLY SUMMER OUT THERE. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AND THE 630 PM DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS:

AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...JUST A BEAUTIFUL EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. COLD
FRONT IS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND DIURNAL CU WHICH DEVELOPED
ALONG A WEAK SEA BREEZE IS MELTING AWAY. THIS WILL LEAVE A CLEAR AND
COOL NIGHT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS EAST FROM
THE MS VLY. THE COOL DRY ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING...AND HAVE SIDED ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH LOWS A
LITTLE ABOVE 50 IN THE NW ZONES...TO AROUND 55 ALONG THE SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...H5 TROUGH EXITING NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY WILL
ALLOW HEIGHTS TO INCREASE DURING SUNDAY AS THE H5 RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES EAST FROM THE MS VALLEY. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE PATTERN
WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING OFF THE COAST OF
DELMARVA. ONSHORE WIND EACH DAY WILL HOLD MAX TEMPERATURES BACK
EACH DAY...WHILE INLAND AREAS WARM INTO THE 80S. SUNDAY WILL BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MIN TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL EACH NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INLAND STATIONS. NO POPS WITH LITTLE TO NO
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH IN THE H85-5 LAYER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY... MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME
INDICATIONS OF THE FEATURE BREAKING DOWN VERY LATE BUT WITH WEAK
TROUGHING UPSTREAM...IT APPEARS THE PROCESS WILL BE SLOW. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AS WELL. WE CONTINUE TO CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON A DIURNAL BASIS FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
BUT EVEN THIS SEEMS A STRETCH. WARMING WILL BE SLOW ALTHOUGH
PERSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING HIGHS NEAR 90 INLAND AND THE
MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH
OF 65 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. 1-3 DEGREE TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS WITH
DRIER AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SUGGEST
LITTLE IF ANY POTENTIAL BR ISSUES. HOWEVER...CAN NOT DISCOUNT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF BOUT OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS ESPECIALLY AT KLBT
AND KCRE THROUGH SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW HOWEVER.

VFR AFTER SUNRISE WITH NE WINDS BECOMING E-SE IN THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR. MORNING FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS IF 930 PM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 630 PM BELOW:

AS OF 630 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE WATERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE CALM MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED WINDS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL
FADE QUICKLY WITH NIGHTFALL...AND WINDS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE ON A
N/NE DIRECTION WITH 5-10 KT SPEEDS. THIS WILL DRIVE WAVE HEIGHTS OF
2-3 FT...SLIGHTLY LESS IN THE SHADOWED REGION SW OF BRUNSWICK COUNTY.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST SUNDAY
WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ADJACENT WATERS OF NORTHEAST
SC AND SOUTHEAST SC. THE HIGH WILL PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE DURING
SUNDAY ALLOWING EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TO PREVAIL. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 2-3 FT INSHORE TO 3-4 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE EACH DAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM FRIDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A FULL
FLEDGED SUMMERTIME PATTERN TO THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES
OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOONS COURTESY OF THE SEA BREEZE
ACCELERATION. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL GENERALLY MATCH THE WINDS WITH 2-
3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JDW
SHORT TERM...SRP
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...RJD/MRR


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