Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 271942
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
342 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUING TO SHIFT OFF THE COAST. MUCH
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. A WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT MONDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BY MID WEEK
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...THE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS THE FA CAN NOW BE TRACKED VIA A FINE LINE THRU THE KLTX 88D
REFLECTIVITY/VELOCITY PRODUCTS AT THE 0.5 DEGREE SLICE. ATTM...THE
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM BALD HEAD ISLAND SW TO WINYAH BAY. THIS
LEAVES LESS THAN 10 % OF THE ILM CWA LEFT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
PUSH THRU AND FURTHER OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS. AS FOR TIMING...THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE OFF THE REMAINDER OF THE ILM COAST BY 5
PM...AND THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE ILM ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS BY
630 PM. STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO PRODUCE
POST COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ENHANCED CONVECTION. AT THIS POINT DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE TSTORM ACTION...IF ANYTHING...SMALL HAIL
AND/OR WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. BY SUNSET...THE PCPN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE FA WILL CONSIST OF WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THAT
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TO OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT SAT. THIS DUE TO
WEAK S/W TROFS/VORTS CONTINUING TO ROTATE THRU THE AMPLIFIED UPPER
TROF...AND ACROSS THE ILM CWA. THE FA WILL BE WELL INTO THE CAA
UNDER GUSTY NNW-N WINDS OVERNIGHT BUT THE THINKING CONTINUES THAT
PCPN WILL SHUT OFF PRIOR TO THE COLDEST AIR REACHING THE ILM CWA
TOWARD DAYBREAK SAT. THEREFORE...CONTINUE WITH NO MENTION OF
FROZEN PCPN. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY LOWER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...A COOL DOWN IS IN STORE WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THIS LATE SEASON COLD FRONT. IN THE MID-LEVELS THE SHARP 500
MILLIBAR TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SURFACE. THIS COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE SPILLING INTO THE REGION WITH 850 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURE FALLING TO -6 TO -8 DEGREES CELSIUS. AT THE SURFACE
LOW TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTING TO REACH 27
DEGREES F INLAND TO AROUND FREEZE ON THE BEACH STRANDS. THUS A
FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CHANCES FOR A
HARD FREEZE APPEAR LIKELY FOR OUR INLAND AREAS LATE NIGHT SATURDAY
INTO THE 1ST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S AND THE
LOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 30 TO
LOW 40S ALONG THE BEACH STRANDS OF NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...SPRING-LIKE PATTERN
UPCOMING FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS THE NORTHERN STREAM REMAINS
ACTIVE...DRIVING COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE AREA...SEPARATED BY WARM
TEMPERATURES.

BROAD TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MID-WEEK
WITH A SHORTWAVE DIVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS...BUT ONLY LIMITED POST-FRONTAL CAA. THUS...TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BE WARMER THAN MONDAY EVEN THOUGH THE AREA WILL BE BEHIND THE
FRONT. THEREAFTER...A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND LOOKS TO BEGIN AS
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH GETS DISPLACED BY RIDGING...AND EVEN A WEAK
SHORTWAVE THURSDAY WILL DO LITTLE TO IMPEDE THE WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TUESDAY...AND THEN PARKS OFFSHORE WED-FRI. INCREASING AIR-MASS
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR THU/FRI AHEAD OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
FRONT AS AN EARLY-SUMMER PATTERN SETS UP...FOR AT LEAST A FEW DAYS.
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD...BUT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST BEYOND THE EXTENDED...AND
WILL MAINTAIN THE WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...A NICE BROKEN LINE AND/OR CLUSTER OF CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG AND BEHIND A POTENT COLD FRONT...THAT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED THUNDER FOR THE
FLO AND COASTAL TERMINALS THRU MID-AFTERNOON. FOR THE MOST
PART...THE THUNDER IS EAST OF THE LBT TERMINAL. VISIBILITIES IN
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD DROP TO IFR. POST FRONTAL...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST 10-15 KT...GUSTING OCCASIONALLY OVER
20 KTS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO IFR...HOWEVER RATHER LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THE START AND END TIME OF THE LOW CEILINGS SINCE MOS
GUIDANCE DIFFERS QUITE A BIT FROM ONE ANOTHER. OVERNIGHT...LOOK
FOR A SLOW IMPROVEMENT...WITH VFR EMERGING MAINLY DURING THE PRE-
DAWN SAT HOURS. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A TIGHTENED SFC PG WILL
COMBINE TO KEEP WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KT...WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 15 KT
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN AFTER
DAYBREAK WITH NO LOW CEILINGS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MONDAY...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ILM NC
WATERS...AND A SCEC FOR THE ILM SC WATERS.

AT THE MOMENT...THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM BALD HEAD ISLAND
SOUTHWEST TO WINYA BAY...AND CONTINUES TO DROP TO THE SE. THIS
ILLUSTRATED BY A FINE LINE BY THE KLTX 88D 0.5 DEGREE REFLECTIVITY
AND VELOCITY PRODUCTS. BY NIGHTFALL...THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO HAVE
DROPPED THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS...AND SHOULD NOW BE LOCATED OVER
THE OFFSHORE ATL WATERS. PCPN VIA LIGHT RAIN WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY THUNDER...WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY
AFTER THE CFP DURING THIS EVENING. PCPN WILL BECOME SPOTTY IN NATURE
BY THE PRE-DAWN SAT HRS. AS FOR WINDS...INITIAL CAA SURGE AND
TIGHTENED SFC PG TO YIELD WINDS BECOMING NNW-N AFTER FROPA AT SPEEDS
OF 15 TO 20 KT FOR THE ILM SC WATERS...AND 15 TO 25 KT FOR THE ILM
NC WATERS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS UTILIZED FROM WAVEWATCH3...WITH LOCAL
SWAN MODEL CONTINUING TO UNDER-PREFORM OF LATE.
OVERALL...SIGNIFICANT SEAS TO RUN 3 TO 5 FT ILM SC WATERS...AND 3
TO 6 FT ILM NC WATERS. AVERAGE PERIODS WILL RANGE FROM 4.5 TO 5.5
SECONDS.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE SHIFTED WELL OFF
THE COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING AND NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS WILL BE BLOWING OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE NORTH AND CONTINUE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY WITH A DECREASE IN SPEEDS TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
FALL FROM 3 TO 5 FEET ON SATURDAY TO AROUND 2 FEET BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 340 PM FRIDAY...GUSTY SW WINDS GREET MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT. SPEEDS OF 15-20
KTS WILL BE COMMON...DRIVING WAVE HEIGHTS TO 3-4 FT THROUGH MONDAY
EVE. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY
NIGHT TURNING WINDS QUICKLY TO THE NORTH AT 15-20 KTS...BEFORE
EASING QUICKLY TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
SEAS WILL REMAIN CHOPPY JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THE OFFSHORE
WINDS WILL PUSH SEAS DOWN TO 2-3 FT EARLY TUESDAY...AND THEN THESE
WILL FALL FURTHER ON THE LIGHT WINDS DURING THE DAY. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...AND AS
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...WINDS WILL RISE TO 10-15 KTS LATE
IN THE PERIOD WITH SEAS INCREASING AGAIN TO 2-4 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056.
NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR NCZ087-096-099-105>110.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...HAWKINS
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH/DL


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