Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 221136
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
735 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER...IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
MILD AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM WEDNESDAY...LOCAL RADAR WIND PROFILE CLOCKING 30 TO
40 KT N WIND BARBS 1-2 KFT OFF THE SURFACE RESPECTIVELY...AS A
SPOKE OF CYCLONIC ENERGY ROTATES FARTHER OFF THE COAST AND STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NW. ADJUSTMENTS BEFORE DAYBREAK
INCLUDE TRIMMING MAXIMUMS A DEGREE BASED ON RECENT GFS LAMP
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FROM N TO S IS STILL
ANTICIPATED TODAY. WILL ALSO REDUCE CLOUD COVER A FEW TICKS WITH
LITTLE AFTERNOON CU EXPECTED IN THE DRY DOWNSLOPE WIND FLOW. NO
OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME...THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

SUNNY COOL AND BREEZY DAY TO KICK OFF WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A DRY
COLD FRONT THAT HAS SWEPT OFFSHORE AND HAS ALLOWED STRONG CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO BARGE INTO THE AREA. A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM
BREWING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE N OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

BRISK AND DEEP NW FLOW TO ENVELOP THE REGION WITH DRYING IN MID
AND LOWER LEVELS. ENOUGH H8 MOISTURE MAY LINGER INTO DIURNAL SFC
HEATING TO COOK A FEW CUMULUS AT 5-6 KFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NC
INTERIOR...BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED IN SCOPE.

MAXIMUMS AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WITH A
SLIGHT WIND-CHILL TO BOOT THIS MORNING. FULL SUNSHINE AND DOWN
SLOPE WIND TRAJECTORIES HOWEVER SHOULD PROVIDE A DECENT WARM-UP
DESPITE THE ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION...AND GENERALLY A 68-72
DEGREE RANGE IS EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS. WARM ICW WATERS IN NW
WIND COULD WARM PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL STRIPS A LITTLE HIGHER.

TONIGHT A CHILLY ONE UNDER CLEAR SKY AND DRY AIR...BUT NOT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO THE NW WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OVERNIGHT. DAYBREAK TEMPERATURES OF 40-45 DEGREES EXPECTED...WITH
WIND CHILLS AT FIRST LIGHT IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...STACKED LOW SOUTH OF CAPE COD THU MORNING
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST...LEAVING DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
CAROLINAS. MID LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED FRI AND TROUGHING TO
THE EAST ALONG WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST ENSURES DEEP WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP THE REGION
PRECIP FREE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. HIGHS BELOW CLIMO
THU AS COLD ADVECTION MORE THAN OFFSETS INSOLATION AND WEAK MID
LEVEL WARMING. MAY HAVE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING COMPONENT THU NIGHT
BUT CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH REMAINS TO THE WEST SO BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY CALM. LOWS END UP A FEW DEGREES BELOW
CLIMO. COLD ADVECTION WEAKENS FRI WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AIR MASS
MODIFICATION...AND WEAK MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HELPING PUSH HIGHS
ABOVE CLIMO. LITTLE CHANGE FROM THU NIGHT TO FRI NIGHT AND LOWS WILL
ONCE AGAIN END UP BELOW CLIMO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW LOCALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
KEEP MID LEVELS VERY DRY BUT ALSO ALLOW FOR OCCASIONAL SHOTS OF
COOLER AIR FROM TIME TO TIME...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF WHICH APPEARS
TO BE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. EXCEEDINGLY DRY AIR RULES OUT THE CHANCE
OF PRECIP AND SEVERELY LIMITS CLOUD COVER THROUGH TUE. MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFTS OVER HEAD MON AND OFF THE COAST FOR TUE. AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIMIC RIDGING ALOFT WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING IN ERNEST FOR TUE. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AS MID
LEVEL PATTERN DE-AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES PROGRESSIVE. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT HELP OFFSET ANY COOL AIR
INTRUSIONS WITH HIGHS RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SAT NIGHT CLEAR SKIES...DEEP DRY AIR...AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOW
FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS WILL RUN BELOW CLIMO. ELEVATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SUN NIGHT MAY KEEP LOWS CLOSE TO CLIMO.
DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW WILL PUSH LOWS ABOVE CLIMO FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE ONLY
ISSUE WILL BE WINDS...PARTICULARLY DURING THE 12Z-22Z WINDOW WHEN NW
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS AOA 20 KT...PERHAPS EVEN 25 KT...ARE
EXPECTED.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO ABOUT 5 KT AFTER SUNSET.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 555 AM WEDNESDAY...CAUTION STATEMENTS RAISED FOR NC WATERS.
20 KT SHOULD BE EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW INSHORE WITH A NW WIND...BUT SEAS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY BUMPY FARTHER OUT. SEAS PRIMARILY 2-5 FEET AND
HIGHEST OUTER WATERS. THE BULK OF WAVE ENERGY WILL BE TIED WITH
WINDS...SO SHORT WAVELENGTHS AND STEEP SEAS WILL BE THE RULE
OFFSHORE TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY ARE
EXPECTED ON THE 0-20 NM WATERS. WINDS SPEEDS FROM THE NW SHOULD
EASE TO 15 HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS THE GUSTY NW SURGE WEARS
OFF A LITTLE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...SOLID 15 KT NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO WEST AS LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE
COD EXITS AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. GRADIENT IS PINCHED
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH SPEEDS STAYING AROUND 15 KT INTO EARLY FRI
MORNING. GRADIENT RELAXES FRI WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW DROPPING
TO 10 KT OR LESS BY MIDDAY. WINDS REMAIN OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT BUT
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK COLD SURGE WILL PUSH SPEEDS OVER 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. REMAINS OF COLD FRONT
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT INTO SUN BRINGING ABOUT A SLIGHT BUMP
IN NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 15 KT BUT SOLID 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL RUN 2 TO 3 FT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...XXXI
MARINE...8/3








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