Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
FXUS62 KILM 230614
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
114 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017
An upper disturbance will bring a heavy rainfall threat this
evening. Monday and Tuesday will be breezy but mild in the wake
of this system. A cold front Thursday will bring slight rain
chances and usher in some more seasonable weather over the
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 840 PM Sunday...Risk for severe weather has greatly
diminished for the remainder of the near term. Have updated
forecast accordingly. Risk for severe weather has not completely
ended however, so will continue to monitor until precip moves
offshore in the early morning hours. Previous discussion from
earlier this afternoon follows:
Primary focus is pending severe weather potential. The storms
on radar moving into NE SC are not the main players, but farther
upstream organizing from the FL panhandle into southern GA.
This activity will undergo/sustain squall like organization into
NE SC around 7 PM and across SE NC 10-11 PM, then off the coast
around or just after midnight. 50 KT winds at 925 MB may
readily be brought to the surface by a TSTM during squall
passage, enhanced by outflow winds, raising the odds of
straight-line damaging winds. 0-3 KM helicity fields migrate
across the area 00-04z. This will overlap with elevated boundary
layer instability, upping the prospects of isolated tornadoes
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...No significant hazards this period but
showers can be expected Monday as column instability beneath a
cold pool aloft remains high. As the nearly stacked low pulls
away, low-level winds will shift to WNW with strong mid-level
drying into Tuesday. Partial sun later on Monday will be
followed by more sunshine minutes Tuesday with maximums in the
60s both days.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Upper level ridge axis moves offshore on
Wednesday yielding deep layer SW to WSW flow. Expecting a mostly
sunny and unseasonably warm afternoon. Cold front comes through late
Wednesday night driven by very low amplitude and confluent upper
system keeping rain chances minimal. Cold air advection Thursday is
weak initially allowing for highs in the low to mid 60s early before
temperatures possibly start a non-diurnal decline. The remainder of
the period will bring cool and dry advection. The southern branch of
the upper jet splits off and gets hung up as a positively tilted
trough over the SWrn U.S. The northern branch will end up a broad
and positively tilted trough over the Eastern U.S. Daytime highs
will be stuck below climatology in the cold advection regime whereas
breezy well-mixed nights will be seasonably cool.
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 06Z...High confidence of at least OCNL MVFR/IFR cigs
through 09Z, then should gradually improve such that VFR will
be the predominant condition by and after 12Z. However, there
is a small chance for MVFR conditions in low topped showers
from mid daytime Mon morning thru late afternoon as the
vertically stacked cold core low moves overhead. Once nightfall
occurs, the chc for pcpn decreases but clouds should persist
with the upper low still in the vicinity.
As for winds...the occluded front will lift north of the FA
during the next several hours as the dry punch in the mid-
levels pushes overhead. Winds will shift from the East to
South-Southwest at 10 kt or less. By sunrise thru early aftn
winds will generally be from the SW at 10 to 15 kt. The cold
front should push thru during the aftn with winds becoming WNW
to NW around 10 kt. Could see isolated to scattered -shra with
this cfp otherwise will just mention VCSH thruout the day.
Extended outlook...Expect mainly VFR. A dry CFP slated for
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 840 PM Sunday...No changes to the forecast with the latest
update. Previous discussion follows:
SSE-SSW winds will ramp up tonight with gusts of up to 30 KT.
Seas will respond, building to 5-9 feet in the 0-20 NM waters.
Severe TSTMS overnight will be capable of producing localized
gusts up to 60 KT. It will be dangerous on the waters tonight
and navigation even on the ICW will be dangerous and highly
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Rough conditions expected on the waters
this period as strong SW and W winds prevail so Advisory flags
will fly both Monday and much of Tuesday. Offshore wave heights
will be notably higher than inshore as winds tend more from the
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sunday...Coast-parallel southwesterly flow on
Wednesday ahead of a cold front. Though the winds will increase
to the 15 to 20kt range any headline or advisory-worthy seas
will remain outside of the 20nm forecast zone. With the approach
of the boundary Wed night into Thursday we may add some
gustiness and possibly introduce some 5 ft waves. A sharp late
morning veer to NW Thursday will give way to abating wind
speeds. Wave faces will steepen and a cautionary headline may be
appropriate for a narrow span of time. A broad and weakening
band of NW flow will be found across the eastern U.S on Friday.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254-