Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 152010

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
310 PM EST Fri Dec 15 2017

A cold front will shift off the coast this evening and high
pressure will build in over the Carolinas for the weekend.
With a southerly wind temperatures will rebound and move above
average by Monday and Tuesday. A cold front pushes across the
region late Tuesday to drop temperatures back again as high
pressure returns through mid to late week.


As of 300 PM Friday...Frontal wave moving up into the Outer Banks.
This has dragged the trailing front back to the north of the region
and allowed the mid level cloud deck to fill in. Forecast soundings
continue to show dry air outside of this layer so still not expecting
any rain. The front will push back through to the south this evening
leading to a fairly deep layer veer to NW flow. This should lead to
a rapid clearing trend from NW to SE. Lows tonight will bottom out
in the low 30s NW to upper 30s far southern zones. Highs tomorrow
will have trouble exceeding 55 in the new, cooler airmass behind the

As of 3 PM Friday...A short-wave, in a deamplifying phase, will
eject across the Red River Valley of Texas Saturday night,
gradually becoming absorbed in WSW flow on approach to the
Appalachian Virginias Sunday night. At the surface, high
pressure centered over the Carolinas Saturday night, will slip
offshore by Sunday evening. These features will team, to produce
a sensible weather trend of warm air advection Sunday,
potentially resulting in 16-19 degree F minimum temperature
differences Sunday daybreak versus daybreak Monday, along with a
slight chance of a light rain shower very late Sunday into
early Monday. Moisture associated with the weakening short-wave,
will nearly saturate the 925-700 l and bringing the upper-
level energy across the region.ayer late Sunday night and a few
sprinkles or light rain showers generated by weak support aloft
cannot be ruled out entirely into early Monday.

As of 300 PM Friday...on Monday the 12 UTC runs of the ECMWF
and GFS are showing a trough/cutoff low south of the 4 corners
area of the great southwest. The models begin to diverge and by
Tuesday the GFS is faster pulling the cutoff low to the east.
By Wednesday morning the GFS has dissipated this wave and it
has this feature accelerating to the east coast in the zonal
flow. The ECMWF still has a cutoff over the Oklahoma and
Arkansas border and the model weakens and dissipates this
features as if has moves off the east coast. Therefore
confidence in the extended forecast is not high.

The GFS models continue to show a warming trend through Tuesday
before moving a cold front through the area between Tuesday and
Wednesday and bringing down a shot of cooler temperatures, but
the ECMWF keeps the shot of colder air farther north. So the
forecast will side with the model blend and this will bring in
cooler temperatures for Wednesday.

Rainfall chances looks to be the best on Monday into Tuesday
with the favoring of the GFS solution stronger southern energy
out of the southwest and pulling the cutoff low out quicker.
With the the west-southwest flow remaining over the region
expect to see small chances of rain Wednesday through Thursday.


As of 18Z...VFR through the TAF period. A deep westerly flow
will continue to stream mid to high clouds across the area.
Surface winds will be SW-W around 10 kts. Winds will veer to the
WNW as a weak front drops south through the terminals late this
afternoon and early evening. As the front moves farther south
and high pressure builds in, winds will become light north aob 3
kt with mid clouds decreasing. After sunrise winds will be
light NW-NE becoming SW by the end of the TAF valid period.

Extended Outlook...VFR. VFR tempo MVFR/SHRA Monday through Tuesday


As of 300 PM Friday...W to SW prefrontal flow regime has
relaxed near shore as the front has retrograded. This boundary
will push back through this evening turning winds to the NW and
adding some gustiness but expect wind and seas to remain below
any advisory or headline thresholds. Such winds will last into
Saturday morning but the remainder of Saturday will see high
pressure build in and much lighter if not variable wind flow.

As of 3 PM Friday...A welcoming and pleasant marine environment for
this period, with high pressure nearly overhead of the waters
Saturday night, slipping offshore of the 0-20 NM zones by Sunday
evening. As a result, winds will become light and variable Saturday
night, then S-SW Sunday, 12 kt or less. Sunday night as the high
offshore slips farther SE, winds will trend to W early Monday up to
15 KT, as the pressure gradient tightens a bit. Still, with offshore
flow, seas will not be problematic. Light to glass conditions
Saturday night will see perhaps a lazy 10 second E swell around a
foot. Into Sunday night, SW-W wind chop will pick up a little bit.
Dry this period, except perhaps a sprinkle late Sunday and early
Monday, but no visibility restrictions are expected.


As of 3 PM unsettle period for the marine forecast
with west to southwest flow on Monday into Tuesday with a cold
front pushing across the waters later Tuesday into Wednesday.
Will have to watch if small craft develop after the cold frontal
passage but otherwise seas 2 to 4 feet.





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