Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 290706
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
306 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR REGION THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A STRONG UPPER LOW IS CENTERED ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC...WITH
A DEEP TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS LOCATED ACROSS THE PLAINS AND A SURFACE LOW IS LIFTING NORTH
OUT OF NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING. WITH THESE FEATURES IN
PLACE...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY
WITH A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROVIDING ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
DIURNAL SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE SUPPLY WILL BE
LOCATED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S. HOWEVER...AS WE SAW
YESTERDAY...LACK OF CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO JUMP INTO THE UPPER 70S IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A DISTURBANCE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING TO HELP PRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF ANY FORCING SHOULD
KEEP THE AREA DRY ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DIP INTO THE 50S
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
A H5 LOW...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ENERGY
KICKS OFF INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON
WEDNESDAY.

THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO FILL AND ROTATE NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. FA IS IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT AND THE SRN STREAM H5 FLOW RUNS THRU THE DEEP
SOUTH. CANT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...BUT FEEL
THE CHANCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY.

ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS INTO THE ERN U.S. MEAN TROF OVER
THE WEEKEND. THIS DEEPENS AND SHARPENS THE TROF OVER THE FA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF HAVE SWAPPED SCENARIOS OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF NOW
LINGERS THE H5 TROF DEEPER AND LONGER THAN THE GFS. THIS RESULTS IN
A LITTLE MORE PCPN PRODUCED BY THE ECMWF. THERE SHOULD BE ENUF LIFT
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WILL
CARRY CHANCE POPS IN THE E AND SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE W ON SATURDAY
AND CHANCE POPS ALL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AS THE TROFS LIFTS E.

BY MONDAY...THE S/W TROF HAS LIFTED NE OF THE REGION...SO LEFT
MONDAY DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK...BUT THEY WILL GRADUALLY WARM. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
ON WEDNESDAY WILL WARM TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY FRIDAY. THE
HIGHS WILL REMAIN STAGNANT EITHER SIDE OF 80 THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OUTSIDE OF SOME SC ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO...SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR
THIS MORNING ACROSS OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT DOES
LOOK LIKE SOME OF THE VFR SC ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO IS TRYING TO FILL IN A LITTLE. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PRE DAWN HOURS SO WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCT CLOUDS AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID MORNING. AS WE GET SOME DAYTIME
HEATING...WE SHOULD START TO CU UP THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL PUSH DOWN ACROSS THE
AREA IN THE 18Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS BUT EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. CU SHOULD SCT BACK OUT
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LATTO
NEAR TERM...LATTO
SHORT TERM...LATTO
LONG TERM...SITES
AVIATION...JGL






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