Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 181747
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1247 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL LEAD TO A FEW SNOW FLURRIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEADING TO PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS
AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. GOOD DEAL OF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE
THIS MORNING. 12Z ILN SOUNDING SHOWS THIS SHALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED
BELOW AN INVERSION AROUND 880 MB. EVEN WITH SOME EROSION OF THESE
LOW CLOUDS...MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
S/W WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS S/W WILL DAMPEN AND WEAKEN
AS IT PASSES THRU THE OHIO VALLEY. NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST
WEAK LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS DEVELOPING EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES OR EVEN SOME ISOLD SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH JUST A CHANCE OF FLURRIES
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THE CLOUDS AND MAINLY
NEUTRAL LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY...
EXPECT A SMALL DIURNAL RISE TO READINGS TODAY. HAVE HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 30S NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...BUT FOR THE
MOST PART EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. WITH THE BETTER FORCING GENERALLY REMAINING TO OUR
SOUTHEAST...WILL TRIM BACK POPS AND JUST ALLOW FOR A TOKEN SLIGHT
CHANCE INTO OUR FAR SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH
THIS FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTION...WE WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PCPN
TO BE ALL SNOW. FAIRLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL AIRMASS SHOULD ALLOW DRY WEATHER ON
SUNDAY. LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY EXTENDING FROM A
TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST.

WE MAY BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ON TUESDAY. HAVE LESS THAN AVERAGE AMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES FROM RUN TO RUN. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING THROUGH
OHIO TO THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. THE LOW MAY FEATURE A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SURROUNDING ITS DEEP CENTER...PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS. COPIOUS MOISTURE FEEDING FROM THE TROPICS AND FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN COULD ADVECT AROUND THE LOW. CURRENT TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ALLOWS RAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CHANGING TO SNOW LATER
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE LOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART.
HIGHS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY UNDER
NEUTRAL TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION. READINGS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE ANTICIPATED STRONG LOW.
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE LOW COULD BRING HIGHS UP INTO THE MID
40S ON TUESDAY...OR EVEN HIGHER IF THE WARMER MEX GUIDANCE
VERIFIES. HIGHS COULD SLIP TO AROUND 40 ON WEDNESDAY IN COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENT MVFR CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACRS THE
TAFS EARLY THIS AFTN. WEAKENING MID LEVEL S/W TRACKING THRU THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL RESULT IN SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE ACRS KDAY/KCMH/KLCK. MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT THESE TAF
SITES BUT SINCE PROBABILITY AND DURATION WILL BE LIMITED HAVE JUST
MENTIONED -SN. THERE MAY BE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS ESPECIALLY AT
KCVG/KLUK AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS S/W FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. HAVE
FOLLOWED SOLN CLOSER TO LATEST RAP BRINGING MVFR CIGS BACK OR A LTL
LOWER THIS EVENING. HAVE SHOWN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT KCVG/KLUK
FRIDAY AFTN WITH MVFR CIGS HOLDING AT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES.

NW TO W WINDS OF UNDER 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST
PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS MAY CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL/AR
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...CONIGLIO
AVIATION...AR






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