Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 310033
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
833 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
SATURDAY...ANOTHER FRONT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI EXTENDS INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ALONG A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE DRY AIRMASS AND
ANTICYCLONIC SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL KEEP MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ILN AREA TONIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE
LESS HUMID AIRMASS WILL ALLOW LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WHEN HIGH
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. A WEAK FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTHEAST TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS INDICATE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF INCREASING MOISTURE...WIND FLOW AND MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT. THOUGH ALL MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT...THE
NAM MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ARE MOST FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. WENT WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ENDING BY SATURDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY.

FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START OUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING
HOWEVER A DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
NEAR THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  THERE ARE SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCES ON THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE AND THE LENGTH OF TIME
THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

MODELS YESTERDAY WERE INDICATING A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  GFS IS
STILL INDICATING THIS WHILE THE ECMWF IS NOW TRYING TO BRING A LARGE
SURGE OF MOISTURE TO THE AREA.  AT THIS TIME KEPT THE DRY SOLUTION
AND WENT WITH THE GFS FOR THIS TIME.  CONTINUED THE DRY CONDITIONS
INTO THURSDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR SKC FOR MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. MAY BE SOME VERY LIGHT MVFR
BR AT MORE PRONE LOCATIONS SUCH AS KLUK/LILN. VFR THROUGH THE
DAYTIME WITH LIGHT WINDS...THOUGH WINDS AT KDAY/KCMH/KLCK MAY
INCREASE IN THE TIGHTER GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH
AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO WORK IN AFTER 00Z. WITH SOME
INCREASING MOISTURE...A FEW MORE VFR LEVEL CU DURING FRIDAY THAN
WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED THURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM FOR FRIDAY NIGHT POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN TAF
LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...JDR


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