Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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360
FXUS61 KILN 272040
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
440 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions will continue through the
weekend...keeping heat index values near 100 in some areas.
afternoon showers and thunderstorms will again be possible through
the early part of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Focus of thunderstorm activity will diminish as large gust front
outruns the main thunderstorm activity...so both coverage and
intensity of storms will diminish through the evening...with the
least chance of storms in the far southeast where moisture and
instability not as robust as was in the western forecast area.

Continuing short term heat advisory across the far south and
southeast...where heat index values will come down shortly with
the increasing clouds and rain cooled air. may have to cancel
before 6pm...will continue to monitor.

Overnight lows to remain quite warm overnight...with lows in the
lower 70s in the far southeast and in the metro areas of
especially Columbus and Cincinnati. Kept overnight lows a little
warmer than short term guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The mid/upper level ridge again dominates the weather for
Sunday in especially the southeast...with the expectation that
daytime heat index values could approach 100 again in the
southeast forecast area with afternoon thunderstorm development
again...with the potential for gusty winds and heavy rain again.

A weak shortwave will skirt to the south of the area on the back
side of the ridge on Monday...which will again serve as a focus
of thunderstorm development in the afternoon. Temperatures will
moderate some with the ridge beginning to retreat.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short wave over Hudson Bay at the beginning of the period will dig
southeast and carve out a trough across the northeast United States.
This will push a cold front through the region on Wednesday. There
is not much moisture with this front and forcing looks weak...
although cannot rule out some showers and thunderstorms in northern
counties. Warm and humid conditions will persist ahead of the front.
But a cooler and drier airmass will spread in for the rest of the
week...with temperatures at or slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A line of convection will continue to progress northeastward over
the next few hours and is expected to affect mainly the western
terminals. MVFR to IFR vsbys and ceilings will be possible with
the stronger storms along with a wind shift to the W/NW. There is
lower confidence on whether the storms will hold together to reach
the Columbus terminals later this afternoon, as models remain
split on this possibility. Regardless, expect the convection to
diminish by early evening as instability wanes.

With plenty of low level moisture in place, light winds, and
skies becoming partly cloudy to mostly clear, br will be possible
overnight, especially at KCVG/KLUK/KILN. Weak high pressure over
the region will cause winds to become more northerly overnight
into Sunday. A weak boundary dropping down from the north will
allow for another chance of showers and storms Sunday afternoon,
but being so late in the period have not included this in the
TAFs.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible through Wednesday...mainly in
the afternoon and evening.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for OHZ073-077>082-
     088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for KYZ090>100.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDR
NEAR TERM...JDR
SHORT TERM...JDR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Kurz



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