Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 300241
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1041 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRIER AIR CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND THEREFORE DO NOT
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP MUCH OVERNIGHT. WENT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ON SATURDAY...A H5 S/W WILL BE SWINGING E FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE S/W WILL PUSH A CDFNT TOWARDS
THE FA. CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT GETS CLOSER. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE MORNING COULD BE
RELATIVELY DRY...WITH A INCREASING CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST
POPS SHOULD BE IN THE W CNTL OHIO COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE FRONT.

STILL EXPECTING THE HIGHEST POPS SATURDAY EVENING AS THE CDFNT
DROPS DOWN INTO THE FA. CONVERGENCE AND UPPER SUPPORT WEAKENS A
LITTLE AS SATURDAY NIGHT PROGRESSES...SO PCPN COULD BECOME LESS ORGANIZED.

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SWINGING THE MAIN H5 S/W THRU ON SUNDAY.
THIS CAUSES A SFC LOW TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT...KEEPING A CHANCE
OF PCPN ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS LOOKS LIKE IT HAS A LITTLE
CONVECTIVE FEED BACK ON SUNDAY AS IT PRODUCES A QPF BULLS-EYE. PCPN
SHOULD COME TO END AS LOW PULLS AWAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY IN THE LOWER 80S SATURDAY IN THE
PERSISTENTLY WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY SATURDAY
NIGHT THE EFFECTS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE DOWN INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S...WITH SRN SECTIONS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. ON SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN INTO THE 60S NW OF I-71...WITH
LOWER TO MID 70S TO THE SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FORECAST HAS SHIFTED IN TIMING RETURN FLOW TO THE OHIO VALLEY. A
SLOWER SHIFT OF WINDS IN THE TUES-THURS TIME FRAME FROM EAST TO
EVENTUALLY SOUTH HAS HELPED KEEP A DRIER AND COOLER FORECAST FOR THE
BETTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN THE OHIO VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MEANDER EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.

WITH THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS HOLDING SWAY OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THIS TIME...HAVE REMOVED POPS UNTIL THURS AFTERNOON WHEN
SOME RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASED MOISTURE WOULD BE
EXPECTED. TEMPS THROUGH THIS TIME WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...STARTING
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY RISING TO AROUND 80
WEDNESDAY AND LOW TO MID 80S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. DRIER AIR WILL
PERMIT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE 50S MON NIGHT AND INCREASE TO AROUND 60
WED NIGHT...JUMPING TO THE MID 60S WHEN THE FLOW TURNS SOUTH AND
MOISTURE INCREASES LATE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE
LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL PICK UP
DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. HAVE A FEW HOURS OF VCTS
IN DURING THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT . MVFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/SITES
NEAR TERM...NOVAK
SHORT TERM...SITES
LONG TERM...FRANKS
AVIATION...NOVAK





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