Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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000
FXUS61 KILN 251732
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
132 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will bring dry weather today along with
below normal temperatures. An upper level trough swinging
through the Great Lakes will bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms late Monday afternoon into early Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Highly amplified mid/upper level flow with ridge centered over
the west coast and a mean trof over the Great Lakes and eastern
US. Westerly flow across the Ohio Valley with an embedded s/w
evident on water vapor imagery tracking through southern lower
Michigan. Weak associated surface front over northern Indiana to
slide east across the area today. This system has very limited
moisture so only expect an increase in cumulus clouds this
afternoon.

High temperatures will be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal,
ranging from the lower 70s northwest to the upper 70s southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
The diurnal cu will diminish with sunset, but a isolated cloud
or two could drop through the region tonight in the fast upper
flow. With mostly clear skies, temperatures will cool into the
lower and mid 50s.

Monday into Monday night a H5 s/w will swing through the base of
the upper trof over the Great Lakes. The consensus of the models
is for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop Monday
afternoon and then move east Monday night. Upped PoPs to chance
for Monday and Monday night. Temperatures will remain about 10
degrees below normals with highs ranging from 70-75.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure builds back in for Tuesday bringing dry weather.
Highs will be a little warmer on Tuesday, reaching the mid 70s.

With a turning of winds to the south on Wednesday, a more
appreciable warmup will begin, with temperatures returning to
the 80s.

As a more progressive pattern begins to set up for Thursday and
beyond, model differences become more pronounced, leading to lower
confidence -- especially in precipitation timing through the rest of
the week. There is agreement that a frontal zone will set up east-to-
west across the southern Great Lakes, with the ILN CWA in the warm
sector within solid deep-layer southwesterly flow. As convection
develops at the north end of this warm sector, and along the frontal
area, there will eventually be some propagation downstream which may
impact the ILN CWA -- perhaps on Thursday afternoon, and then again
as additional waves of precipitation occur going into Friday. How
much of the CWA remains capped is a question, as is the exact
position of the front. Because of this, PoPs will be kept on the
lower side of things for now, with a model blend suggesting higher
precipitation chances north of the ILN CWA. Differences in the
evolution of an upstream trough going into the weekend will preclude
more than very low confidence in the forecast late Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail over the Ohio Valley through the
period. Scattered cu deck around 5kft will continue to develop
across the TAF sites this afternoon ahead of a weak cold front.
This cold front has very limited moisture so only expect this
increase in clouds.

Due to the diurnal nature of these clouds, expect these clouds
to diminish this evening with the loss of daytime heating.

Expect to see an increase in VFR clouds Monday ahead of next
mid level shortwave and associated front which may bring a few
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm Monday night.

West winds at 10 to 15 kts will gust up to 25 kts this afternoon
and then diminish to less than 10 kts overnight.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR/Sites
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Hatzos/Sites
AVIATION...AR


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