Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 251446
AFDILN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1046 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Persistent southwesterly flow will keep temperatures above normal
through the weekend. The combination of the warm temperatures and
occasional upper level disturbances moving through the region will
lead to chances for showers and thunderstorms through at least the
end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Weak upper level disturbance will move across the region today.
This will initially bring a chance of showers along with an
increase in cloud cover. There could be enough instability for an
isolated thunderstorm late in the day, but that is looking
doubtful at this time considering altocumulus cloud shield. Highs
will range from the upper 70s to near 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak short wave will lift northeast into the southern Great
Lakes tonight. This will allow for the possibility of some
scattered shower and thunderstorm activity this evening into the
overnight hours, especially across our northwest, closest to the
short wave. Temperatures tonight will remain seasonably warm, with
overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.

We will remain on the western edge of the mid level ridge located over
the east coast through the end of the week. This will keep us in
south to southwest flow through the remainder of the short term
period. In the continued WAA pattern, we should push into the mid
80s for highs both Thursday and Friday, allowing for good
destabilization both days. Several weak impulses will ride up the
back side of the ridge, but the best forcing associated with these
will generally remain off to our west. With the overall lack of
forcing, will keep pops mainly in the 20-30 percent range
Thursday into Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Above normal temperatures with mainly afternoon thunderstorm chances
will be characteristic of the long term period.  With signal for
warmer pattern with the ECMWF went with a target of opportunity to
increase temperatures over the superblend.  The superblend seemed
especially low for Memorial Day.  Increased temperatures over the
blender however was somewhat conservative in case any afternoon
convection limits temperatures.  At this point limited any
thunderstorm chances on Monday to a slight chance with limited
instability.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weak mid-level disturbance will track across the area this
morning. Shower activity has been unimpressive, owing to a dry low
level airmass and weak forcing. However, will keep VCSH in the
TAFs this morning for the possibility of an isolated shower until
this disturbance passes. Cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm
this afternoon in response to daytime heating, but likelihood is
very low given weak forcing today. Models show another disturbance
tracking eastward across IL/IN this evening may trigger a broken
line of showers/storms, but this activity is expected to dissipate
before reaching the terminals tonight. Winds will remain generally
out of the south through the TAF period, increasing to 10-15 knots
this afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Thursday through Sunday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...Hickman/JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Novak
AVIATION...Kurz


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