Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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000
FXUS63 KILX 300824
AFDILX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
324 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

08Z/3AM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTH OF CHICAGO TO NEAR KIRKSVILLE, MISSOURI.
WHILE CURRENT KILX RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
BOARD...A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED FURTHER SOUTHWEST FROM THE OZARKS
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.  MEANWHILE...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AND
INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE BOUNDARY HAVE LED TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG MAINLY ALONG/NORTHWEST OF A PITTSFIELD TO
BLOOMINGTON-NORMAL LINE.  HRRR CONTINUES TO FOCUS MUCH OF THE
WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH MID-MORNING...SO WILL NEED
TO MONITOR VISBY TRENDS FOR A POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.  FURTHER
EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...WILL ONLY MENTION
PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.  AFTER THE MORNING FOG
DISSIPATES...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PRIMARILY EAST OF THE ILLINOIS
RIVER.  AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE EXTENDED LOOKS WARM AND DRY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE APPEARS TO DEVELOP ACROSS ILLINOIS INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...POTENTIALLY TRIGGERING ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL WARMING
BENEATH THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO CAPPING AND AN OVERALL
SUPPRESSION OF CONVECTION.  AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S EACH DAY.  THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
GRADUALLY FLATTENS THE PREVAILING RIDGE AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION.  MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT CONCERNING TIMING THIS FAR
OUT...BUT TYPICAL TREND IN THIS TYPE OF SCENARIO IS USUALLY SLOWER.
AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

FOG FORMATION AND LOW CLOUDS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS OVER THE
FIRST 6-9 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT HAS
BASICALLY STALLED OUT FROM NE TO SW ROUGHLY ALONG I-55 AS A
STATIONARY FRONT. AS A RESULT OF THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT, THE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. THAT WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG
TO FORM, ESPECIALLY N-NW OF THE FRONT AROUND PIA AND BMI. FOG FOR
THE OTHER TERMINAL SITES COULD REMAIN MVFR, BUT HRRR AND RAP
OUTPUT CONTINUE TO SHOW AREAS OF DENSE FOG FARTHER SOUTH FROM SPI
TO CMI, SO WILL MONITOR DENSE FOG CLOSELY FOR POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT
VIS REDUCTION FOR THE OTHER TERMINALS.

TOMORROW MORNING WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AND REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE DAY.

CLOUDS WILL POSSIBLE DIP TO LIFR AT PIA AND BMI (OR ANY SITE THAT
EXPERIENCES DENSE FOG), WITH MVFR CLOUDS AT THE OTHER TAF SITES
FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. BY MID MORNING, LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
LIFT TO VFR LEVELS AS DIURNAL MIXING INCREASES AND RAISES THE LCL.
CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST UNTIL LATER AFTERNOON, AS A LOBE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADES INTO IL FROM THE E-SE. SHOWER CHANCES
WILL INCREASE EAST OF CMI AND DEC, BUT WE KEPT THE TAF DRY FOR
NOW.

SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT BY SUNDAY EVENING, WITH LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS THROUGH 31/06Z.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...SHIMON



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