Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 261950

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
350 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017

Issued at 345 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017

A period of showers and thunderstorms is expected mainly this
evening across the area along and north of a warm front and area
of low pressure area tracking east. Severe storms are possible
south of US 30 this evening with locally heavy rainfall expected
with the stronger storms. Precipitation should exit by Saturday
morning with warm conditions in store Saturday as highs reach the
mid to upper 70s. A cold front will move through by Sunday
bringing another round of showers and storms followed by cooler
and less humid conditions into Memorial Day.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017

No changes to Flash Flood headlines as convection evolution
underway upstream. Hi res models show mcv working east and warm
front slowly working north to set the stage for at least a period
of showers and storms across much of the area. SWODY1 also
upgraded SW sections to slight risk and TOR watch recently issued
in far SW areas given strong localized shear potential with the
MCV. Greater threat may be damaging winds and hail but will need
to watch discrete cells as well and bowing segments. Pops have
been increased and expanded through the evening with faster
departure overnight.

Rain chances should stay away for the day Saturday with an
increasingly unstable environment working north as temperatures
soar well into the 70s and maybe near 80 in a few spots.


.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 345 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017

No major changes with focus on short term forecast. An unstable
airmass should reside across parts of the area Sat ngt into early
Sunday as a cold front sweeps through. Chance to likely pops
warranted in the period followed by cooler and less humid

Upper low will settle across the Great Lakes and linger through at
least mid week. Series of impulses will bring sporadic chances for
showers. Timing will be tricky so rode with blend of models for
the time being. Airmass will not be overly cold with near to
slightly below normal temps in store.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 123 PM EDT Fri May 26 2017

An area of low pressure and attendant warm front will be
approaching later this afternoon with increasing moisture and
instability especially towards central Indiana. This leaves the
best chance for thunderstorms around evening time and into the
overnight at FWA, but can`t rule SBN out. Winds will adjust to be
out of the southeast during the afternoon before swinging around
to the north and west after the front moves through. Next, we`ll
have to watch for decreasing conditions into IFR especially at FWA
behind the thunderstorm chances tonight as moisture and cool air
come in, subsidence occurs and winds remain around or below 5 kts.


IN...Flash Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Saturday
     morning for INZ018-026-027-032>034.

OH...Flash Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Saturday
     morning for OHZ015-024.



LONG TERM...Fisher

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