Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 291523

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1023 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.UPDATE...Visible imagery this morning showing multiple MCVs
extending from central MS into north AL. Consensus of CAM models are
indicating convective coverage in the central MS/northeast LA
corridor this afternoon in the axis of deepest moisture (PWs ~ 2 in).
Eastern sections look to have the best chance as the wind field
around the departing MCV over central MS enhances convergence. While
subsidence will limit convective potential in the wake of the MCV,
still believe isolated convection will be possible given the moist
airmass and degree of warming expected./26/


.AVIATION...A mix of VFR/MVFR conditions prevail at sites this
morning, but all sites will become VFR by 16-17Z. Scattered SHRA
with some TSRA are expected to develop again over the area later
this morning, then spread eastward through the day. VFR conditions
will prevail at TAF sites outside of any TSRA. Expect the TSRA to
dissipate by early evening with patchy MVFR/IFR conditions possible


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 355 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016/

Short Term (Today through Saturday night)...A relatively unsettled
weather pattern will continue into the weekend as subtle mid/upper
troughing remains over the region in the presence of an anomalously
moist airmass. The upper level pattern will remain mostly static
through tomorrow, but deep layer moisture will slightly and
gradually decrease.

Confidence is somewhat lower in how convection will evolve today as
there is lesser model consensus. However, there is good concordance
on the deeper pool of moisture being situated from Central MS back
across NE/Central LA today. Weak remnant MCVs moving across the area
from yesterday`s activity could help serve as a trigger. Based on
these factors, generally higher PoPs for the day were focused along
the I-20 corridor. We could again see clouds/precip serve as a
limiting factor with today`s high temps, but given less certainty
on timing/location, did not stray as far from guidance consensus
temps. Tomorrow looks to be a repeat of today, with scattered storms
redeveloping during the day. There are some hints activity may be a
bit more diurnal in nature heading through the weekend into early
next week. As a result, high temps will begin to climb again across
much of the area. /DL/

Long Term (Sunday through Friday)...Unsettled weather will continue
through the long term. An upper trough will remain north of the area
through the first half of the period. This, combined with plentiful
moisture(as characterized by 2-2.2 inch PW values), will bring
scattered storm chances to the region for much of the period. By
Monday, the upper trough will lift off to the northeast and the
region will continue to be located within a weakness in ridging.
Upper ridging will build in a little from the west which will allow
heights to rise some but the ArkLaMiss will remain on the eastern
side of this ridge. Rain/storm chances will remain in the forecast
for the region but the better rain chances may actually exist in the

Temperatures will be roughly around or a few degrees above normal
through the period. With dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s, heat
indices will be in the 100 to 105 range through much of the period,
resulting in some elevated heat stress issues. Some locations in the
western part of the CWA, closer to the impacts from the ridge, may
actually meet heat advisory thresholds later in the week. This will
be something to monitor. /28/


Jackson       89  75  93  74 /  27  20  40  17
Meridian      90  75  94  75 /  44  20  43  20
Vicksburg     91  75  93  75 /  16  18  43  15
Hattiesburg   92  75  93  74 /  38  21  41  16
Natchez       90  74  93  73 /  16  18  45  14
Greenville    92  75  93  74 /  27  27  41  26
Greenwood     90  74  93  73 /  25  26  41  25


.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

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