Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
FXUS64 KJAN 220232 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
832 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017
Updated for evening discussion.
.DISCUSSION...The closed low was noted on satellite imagery
spinning overhead here in central Mississippi. Scattered light
showers were noted on radar moving northwest across our northeast
zones and moving southeast across our southwest zones. Very little
cloud cover was noted across our central zones so have reduced
pops across much of our CWA the remainder of the night. The closed
low is progged to track southeast tonight and be just off the
Mississippi Gulf coast by sunrise. The best chance for any
measurable rain tonight will continue east of the low. Low
stratus/fog development remains a concern towards morning. Patchy
dense fog is possible but areas of dense fog look less likely. A
Dense Fog Advisory is not currently anticipated. /22/
Prior discussion below:
00Z AVIATION...With the exception of GTR, TAF sites were VFR at
00Z. GTR was LIFR with 300ft CIGS. Scattered -SHRA was noted on
radar ne of MEI-GWO. Widespread IFR/LIFR low ceilings and
visibilities are expected to develop at all TAF sites after 08Z.
Expect these conditions to linger through 14Z Wed morning before
slowly improving to VFR by aftn. /22/
Tonight through Wednesday: Overall the upper low will gradually
slide southeast into the Gulf of Mexico as we go into the evening.
Expect a gradual dropoff in precipitation as the isentropic lift
continues to wane as the closed low dives into the Gulf of Mexico.
Due to us mixing out pretty well and warming, our crossover
temperatures tonight should be around 2-4 degrees tonight. In
addition, there could be some light rain/drizzle lingering in the
east tonight. With a good crossover temperature, some lingering
light rain/drizzle and good rainfall the last 24 hours over the
ArkLaMiss Delta, fog and low clouds looks to be widespread
overnight. Expect these low clouds and fog, some areas of patchy
dense fog, after midnight. Added a limited for patchy dense fog
areawide in the HWO/graphics to account for this but will monitor
if guidance continues to come in more aggressive on visibilities.
Expect the rain chances to linger into the night as the upper low
shifts southeast into the east-southeast Gulf of Mexico and
shortwave ridging builds in from the northwest. This will help us
dry out as we go into mid-afternoon on Wednesday. Expect highs to
top out in the mid 70s areawide, some 10-15 degrees above normal.
Wednesday night through early next week...
Upper level heights will begin to rise over the area on Wednesday
night as the cutoff low approaches the Florida Peninsula before
it crosses into the Atlantic. Southerly flow will return both
at the surface and aloft on Thursday in response to a deepening
trough over the Plains. Highs temperatures will be nearly 20
degrees above normal on Thursday and Friday, once again flirting
with near record values for each day.
A surface front associated with an upper low that will approach
the Great Lakes this weekend will sweep through the ArkLaMiss late
Friday- early Saturday. Marginal instability will exist in the
prefrontal airmass, however the better threat of severe weather
will remain well north of the region where significant height
falls will exist. Cooler, drier air will begin to filter into the
region behind the front resulting in temperatures closer to their
late February averages on Saturday and Sunday.
Southerly flow will return at the surface late on Sunday as the
surface high moves east of the area, issuing in a warming trend
starting Monday. Expect an active weather pattern through early
next week as moisture enters the region from the Gulf and a
series of shortwave troughs embedded in SW flow aloft advance
through the region.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 52 74 52 82 / 14 16 5 2
Meridian 54 75 52 81 / 26 19 7 2
Vicksburg 52 74 52 81 / 14 11 3 2
Hattiesburg 52 74 53 82 / 14 17 7 2
Natchez 54 73 53 80 / 20 12 4 2
Greenville 53 72 53 77 / 15 10 2 2
Greenwood 54 74 53 80 / 28 14 2 2