Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 050126 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
826 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
OVERALL SIMILAR FORECAST TO LAST NIGHT. AIRMASS HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH
OVERALL IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AS PW`S ARE IN THE 1.7 INCH RANGE WITH
MORE MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE N/E.
THEREFORE...WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS IN S/SE MS
OVERNIGHT AS WE HAD THIS MORNING. HRRR ISN`T HINTING AS MUCH FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD PATCHY FOG SO KEPT IT OUT OF THE GRIDS OVERNIGHT. OVERALL
ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN CENTRAL/SE MS FOR
NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL 03Z. BASED ON LOWS LAST NIGHT AND CURRENT
DEWPOINT TRENDS...ADJUSTED LOWS SLIGHTLY. QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE
WITH HIGH CLOUDS THINNING OVERNIGHT. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT EXPECT A REPEAT OF PATCHY MVFR CATEGORY FOG IN THE
09- 14Z TIME FRAME GIVEN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AIRMASS CHANGE DURING
THE PAST 24 HRS. PER LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE...THE LIFR STRATUS/FOG
POTENTIAL IN THE HBG AREA DOESN`T LOOK QUITE AS GREAT AS IT WAS
EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT IT WILL STILL BE SOMETHING TO CONSIDER.
OTHERWISE...AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY SPARSE AGAIN
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HBG AND HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION IN THE
TAFS. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. THE PATTERN DOES NOT
APPEAR TO CHANGE UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
STUCK WITH GUIDANCE TEMPS. WENT WITH A BLEND FOR POPS. THE GFS
KEPT THE BEST POPS IN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...BUT BASED ON TODAY AND THE
VERY LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THINKING CENTRAL
AND EAST MISSISSIPPI MAY GET A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO.
WHILE THERE WILL BE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH
DAY...INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA...SO THE HWO WILL
REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

MODELS WERE CONSISTENT...KEEPING SUMMER GOING FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHEAST WINDS BRING IN SOME MOISTURE...BUT AFTERNOON MIXING AND A
LIGHT BREEZE ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A FEW PLACES WERE NEAR 100 THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AREA SEEMS TO BE TRAPPED AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. AS THE SYSTEMS SHIFT BACK AND FORTH...MOVE
EAST AND RETROGRADE A TIME OR TWO...OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...CONVECTION WILL INCREASE. BY MID WEEK...RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THE UPPER LOW FINALLY GETS
PICKED UP THE FRONT AT THE END OF THE WEEK...BRINGING A COOLER/DRIER
AIR.

MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH SUPPORTS THE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION GOING
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. LEFT SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN ACROSS THE AREA FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  95  72  94 /  13  24  19  31
MERIDIAN      71  94  69  91 /  11  22  19  25
VICKSBURG     72  96  69  94 /  10  23  19  27
HATTIESBURG   73  95  72  93 /  14  29  19  50
NATCHEZ       73  92  72  92 /  11  31  19  50
GREENVILLE    72  98  71  96 /  10  17  11   9
GREENWOOD     72  95  69  93 /  10  15  10  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/EC



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