Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 251526 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...Update
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1025 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...Morning low clouds and mugginess are a definite sign that
a summer-like air mass has gradually migrated into the region as low
level flow has recently increased. Fortunately there are a fair
amount of clouds around (even high level convective debris) that
will help mitigate temperatures a bit. Still could see maximums in
the afternoon hit the 90 degree mark in a few spots, especially
across eastern Mississippi where cloud cover will be less.
Otherwise, a critical variable for today`s forecast picture is
whether or not the pattern supportive for lots of recent convection
to our northwest will finally creep into at least portions of our
region. The very "ridgy" mid to upper height field over our region
gives impression a passing shortwave to our northwest will have its
impact confined mostly away from our forecast area. However, models
also prog the left-exit region of an impressive upper jet streak
coming over my northwest Arklamiss Delta zones. Thinking this latter
influence, juxtaposed with instability and incoming weak outflow
boundaries, should be enough to get isolated to scattered showers
and storms going in northwest zones in the afternoon and diminishing
in the late evening. The forecast was tweaked to reflect this
thinking. There is the chance for a potent storm or two, with gusty
winds the main risk, in these northwestern zones, but at this point
the risk of more than a stray severe storm is too low to warrant
including highlight in the HWO or graphics.

Of course we will continue monitoring the forecast for needed
updates. Latest update into will be posted shortly. /BB/


.AVIATION...At 15z generally mvfr conditions was noted across the
west...while vfr was elsewhere. Expect VFR flight categories to
prevail at TAF sites over the area this afternoon and evening. There
may be some vcts at kglh and kgwo for this afternoon. Winds today
will be southerly between 5-10 knots. These will subside a bit this
evening, remaining southerly from 3-8 knots overnight. Some patchy
low stratus is possible first thing Thursday morning, perhaps
briefly reducing flight categories to MVFR status. Low stratus will
dissipate by mid-morning./17/


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 341 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night...The forecast area will
remain positioned along the western periphery of a surface high
wedged into the region from the east and ridging aloft throughout
the forecast period.  This will continue to basically equate to warm
and increasingly humid conditions as persistent southerly flow
continues to subtly increase moisture across the region.  Highs both
today and Thursday will range from the middle 80s to around 90. Lows
tonight will range from the middle 60s to middle 70s, and from the
middle 60s to lower 70s Thursday night.

The aforementioned surface high and mid/upper level ridge will work
together to try and keep rain chances scarce across the majority of
the CWA. Still, just as we observed Tuesday night, ongoing complexes
of convection moving east from the Southern Plains towards the Mid
South region could spawn an outflow boundary that brings some showers
and storms to the Delta region later today.  Then Thursday into
Thursday night, a stronger disturbance is progged to lift northeast
while brushing the western half of the CWA.  This looks to
spark some scattered showers and storms across western portions of
the forecast area, primarily in locales along and west of the
Interstate 55 corridor. /19/

LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...Mid level southwest flow
regime, albeit weak, will be in place over the region at the
beginning of the period and looks to become weaker with time
according to a consensus of the models as central Plains wave ejects
out into the upper MS river valley.  Meanwhile, at the surface, flow
looks to remain weak southerly for the most part as dewpoints remain
in the 60s and lower 70s.  An increasingly summerish feel as
maximums continue to push 90.

Diurnal airmass convection looks like a good bet each day, but warm
air in the lower levels should play an inhibiting role for much of
each day leaving development possibilities for mid to late
afternoon, nearest time of maximum heating.  Coverage looks best in
the west in better CAPEs and surface dewpoints./26/


Jackson       89  69  88  69 /   6  13  13  18
Meridian      89  63  89  67 /   2   7   8   9
Vicksburg     87  71  87  71 /  18  19  20  27
Hattiesburg   89  67  90  68 /   2   4   8   8
Natchez       88  71  86  71 /  13  14  18  23
Greenville    89  71  87  71 /  27  28  23  41
Greenwood     89  70  87  70 /  21  30  19  30


.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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