Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 182139
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
339 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE ARE OCCURRING MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE MOVING TO THE EAST. HI-RES MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE SHOWERS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
LEAVING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR
ROTATES AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OUT AHEAD
OF A STRONGER SHORT WAVE THAT WILL APPROACH THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES AND THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AS LIFT INCREASES AND MOISTURE
SPREADS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BE ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH AND LIGHTER WITH THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS AND IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE
AROUND 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL POTENTIAL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH. INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE WEAK ACROSS THE AREA...BUT ONCE AGAIN THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST EMBEDDED STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HAVE REMOVED THE LIMITED RISK OF FLOODING FROM
THE HWO AS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE RECEIVED LITTLE
RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS AND 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL SHOULD BE
WELCOMING.

THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO END FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COOL NIGHT ON TAP WITH LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LITTLE HAS CHANGED AS FAR AS
THE LONG TERM FORECAST...SO WILL ATTACH THE APPLICABLE PORTIONS OF
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
WILL BE DRY BUT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RESULT IN RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE LAST ONE AND ONLY LOW
POPS OF LIGHT QPF IS EXPECTED. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR
CWA MONDAY BUT A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CLOSED OFF
A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY RESULTING IN A DEEPENING OF
THE UPPER LEVEL  TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE DEEPENING TROUGH
WILL SUPPORT A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR
CWA TUESDAY. HIGHEST POPS OF THE LONG TERM WL BE CARRIED ACROSS THE
AREA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT SENDING TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
AND LAST THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. A RATHER PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE AND RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO MOVE BACK INTO OUR CWA CHRISTMAS
NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS FOR FRIDAY. SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED CHRISTMAS WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 50S. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS IS BRINGING OVERCAST SKIES BUT MOST SITES ARE REMAINING VFR.
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT. RAIN WILL MOVE BACK IN ON FRIDAY WHICH
SHOULD BRING SOME ADDITIONAL MVFR CEILINGS. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       44  51  39  56 /  27 100 100  18
MERIDIAN      37  52  39  57 /  15  85 100  23
VICKSBURG     45  50  38  55 /  35 100 100  13
HATTIESBURG   45  52  43  59 /  25 100  98  20
NATCHEZ       48  51  41  55 /  53 100 100  15
GREENVILLE    44  47  36  51 /  19 100  95   9
GREENWOOD     42  49  36  53 /  15  97 100  12

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

15/28




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