Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
000
FXUS64 KJAN 012144
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
444 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...LEANED HEAVILY ON THE HI-RES MODELS IN THE SHORT TERM.
THEY SEEMED TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON WHAT WAS HAPPENING AROUND THE
CWA. THE BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...WHERE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRED THIS AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY
GENERALLY MISSED US...GENERALLY MOVING NORTHEAST. THERE ALSO SEEMS
TO BE AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS/BOUNDARY/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO THE
OVER CENTRAL/WEST LOUISIANA...WHERE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE GOING. ACTIVITY WAS GENERALLY DISSIPATING AS
IT MOVED EAST INTO THE CWA...WHERE SOME MID LEVEL DRYING MIXED DOWN
AND AIR WAS A LITTLE MORE STABLE. FORECAST MAY BE TOTALLY OFF FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY...BUT OPTED TO LEAVE SOME CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND LEAVE RAIN OUT FOR MOST OF THE EVENING. RIGHT NOW
IT LOOKS LIKE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM/FRONT WILL FINALLY START TO
MOVE EAST EARLY MONDAY. THE NEXT CUT OFF LOW MOVES INTO THE WEST
COAST FORCING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO MOVE EAST. A
FEW LOW LEVEL WAVES MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
RAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. BROUGHT RAIN BACK
INTO THE NORTHWEST BEFORE DAYBREAK...HI- RES AND NAM BOTH SUGGEST
THERE COULD WIDESPREAD CONVECTION GOING IN THE 9-12Z TIME FRAME. NOT
RULING OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH FORCING AVAILABLE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AND SOME MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF IT. WILL LIKELY
SEE DOWNPOURS OF HEAVY RAIN ALSO...BUT LOOKS LIKE THINGS WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE TOMORROW AND PASSING IN WAVES...SO WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING
IN THE POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THE HWO WAS CLEAR FOR NOW...WITH IMPACTS
LOOKING ISOLATED AT BEST AT THIS POINT.

THE EURO SHOWS SOME SHOWERS LINGERING EARLY TUESDAY...BUT
GENERALLY DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE LATEST NAM SUGGESTS
THERE MAY BE SOME CONVECTION WEDNESDAY...WHERE THERE APPEAR TO BE A
SERIES OF UPPER WAVES THAT PASS TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
LEANED TOWARD THE EURO FOR THE MID AND LONG TERM. LOOKS LIKE RIDGING
IN THE WEST SETS UP AN OMEGA BLOCK...KEEPING THE AREA COOL AND DRY
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...EVEN WITH A FEW PASSING WAVES. SHOULD SEE
UNSEASONABLY COOLER VALUES FOR HIGHS AND LOWS BY MID WEEK...RIDGING
WILL ALLOW SOME CANADIAN AIR TO REACH THE ARKLAMISS TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE WARMING TREND SHOULD DEVELOP BY THE
WEEKEND...MAYBE A LITTLE EARLIER...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO
RETURN. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A NICE WEEK ONCE THE RAIN MOVES OUT
TUESDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BOUNCE FROM
VFR TO AT LEAST MVFR STATUS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING DUE TO VARYING
CEILINGS HEIGHTS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM SCATTERED CONVECTION.
SOME IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING DUE TO LOW STRATUS.  RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AT
TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GUSTS WINDS POSSIBLE AS WELL AT
SITES WHERE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO
AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT...BUT WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE REGION. /19/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       63  77  58  74 /  60  88  39  12
MERIDIAN      63  79  59  75 /  63  84  58  16
VICKSBURG     64  77  56  74 /  77  85  39  11
HATTIESBURG   65  82  63  78 /  41  79  64  22
NATCHEZ       65  78  58  72 /  64  83  39   9
GREENVILLE    64  74  54  72 /  78  84  33  10
GREENWOOD     66  75  54  72 /  79  86  40  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

07/19



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.