Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 280135 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
835 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...FORECAST WAS GOOD. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
DIMINISHED AND THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET. SOME DRIER AIR
MIXED DOWN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE EAST BUT DEWPOINTS ARE RISING AGAIN
WITH SUNSET. TONIGHT SHOULD BE ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT. REMOVED
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND ADJUSTED
VALUES BASED ON HOURLY TRENDS. /28/

&&
.AVIATION...ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS EVENING AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT A FEW
TERMINALS TUESDAY AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT MAINLY AROUND GTR/MEI/HBG.
ALSO...VERY ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN MAINLY AT GTR/MEI/HBG. /BB/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL LAPS DATA IS CONTINUING TO SHOW WHAT HAS BEEN
THE TREND THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA MIXING
OUT WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE MID 60S RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES AT
OR BELOW 100. BUT THE WESTERN AREAS CONTINUE TO BE OPPRESSIVE AS MID
70S DEWPOINTS AND UPPER 90S TEMPS RESULT IN HEAT INDICES FIRMLY IN
THE 106-110 RANGE. BELIEVE THIS SCENARIO WILL BE ACTED OUT ONE MORE
DAY BEFORE SOME CHANGES BEGIN TO OCCUR.

UPPER RIDGE APPEARS TO BE LOSING SOME OF ITS GRIP ON THE AREA AS A
FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE WE
WILL SEE THIS AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AS RIDGE SLOWLY BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE.

CURRENT WV IMAGERY HAS A RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
MID MS VALLEY AT PRESENT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE...DIVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE TN VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS IT DOES SO...EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT.

MEANWHILE...AN EVEN STRONGER WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS AND FLATTENING THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS
WAVE WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT THAT LOOKS AS THOUGH
WILL MAKE A RUN FOR THE REGION BY THURSDAY. A GOOD SCATTERING OF
STORMS LOOKS PROMISING FOR THURSDAY AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES IN...BUT
EVEN BETTER WILL BE THE DRIER AIRMASS THAT MOVES IN BEHIND. THE RAW
GFS IS SHOWING DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR THE WEEKEND. WHILE
THE 90 DEGREE HEAT WILL CONTINUE...A DRY HEAT WILL BE MUCH PREFERRED
TO THE HUMID AIRMASS WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  99  74  97 /   7  15  15  34
MERIDIAN      72  97  74  97 /   7  18  19  36
VICKSBURG     75  98  75  98 /   7  15  13  24
HATTIESBURG   73  98  74  97 /   7  17  18  32
NATCHEZ       73  95  74  95 /   7  15  11  22
GREENVILLE    75  98  75  99 /   7  15  12  22
GREENWOOD     74  97  74  97 /   7  15  12  26

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-035-
     040-041.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023>026.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

28/JAN/BB/26



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