Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 270245 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
845 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED SOLELY FOR THE GOING HOURLY TRENDS. QUIET AND CLEAR CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE. /10/

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS TAF PERIOD. LOOK FOR A WIND SHIFT
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE AS A REINFORCING WEAK FRONT SLIPS
THROUGH THE AREA. /CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

A RATHER QUIET WEATHER REGIME WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW MAINTAINS HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURES FOR THE ARKLAMISS.
A VERY WEAK REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT...AND THIS COULD HELP TO KEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING A LITTLE
GREATER. IT APPEARS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST PERIOD - HAVE
GONE WITH A COOLER BLEND OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AS IT LOOKS LIKE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE FAVORABLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN CLIMATIC
AVERAGE...AND A SIZABLE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST GRADIENT IS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SHIFTING EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL CAUSE A WEAK COLD FRONT TO TREK THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRINGS SOME CLOUDS BACK
INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES MAINLY EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. BEHIND THIS FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
SURGE BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND EXIST AREAWIDE OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.  WITH A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT RESIDING OVER THE
COUNTRY...OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEST SOUTHWEST TO BEGIN
THE WEEKEND.  THIS IS THANKS TO LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THIS WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CAUSE PACIFIC MOISTURE
ALOFT TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.

THERE IS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW THE SOUTHERN/NORTHERN STREAMS
WILL INTERACT...BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR LOWER PRESSURES OVER THE
ARKLAMISS REGION AND PERHAPS HEAVIER RAINFALL AT SOME POINT THIS
WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR VERY CHILLY AIR TO SURGE IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT ENSEMBLE SPREAD ON HOW THIS
SCENARIO WILL UNFOLD IS SUBSTANTIAL AT THIS POINT. THE MAJORITY OF
THE GUIDANCE KEEP THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS COLD AIR LOCKED IN OVER
EASTERN CANADA WHILE SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES BIGGER ANOMALIES WILL
SHIFT FARTHER WEST AND POSE A GREATER THREAT TO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
/19/EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       39  61  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      34  60  31  57 /   0   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     38  64  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   39  64  36  61 /   0   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       40  65  38  63 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    39  58  34  58 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     37  57  32  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$





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