Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 232013
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
313 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night...At the beginning of
the period, mid/upper level ridge looks to become centered over
northern portions of the forecast area. This will result in
subsidence/warming/drying in the column. PWs of around 2 inches of
late over the forecast area should begin to lessen somewhat over the
majority of the forecast area the next couple of days. The exception
will be over the south and west portions of the forecast area where
the best moisture looks to hang on. With these areas maintaining the
best moisture, look for the best convective coverage.

Compressional warming will allow surface temperatures to be on the
increase the next few days. Given the moist soils from recent rains,
dewpoints will hang on in the mid 70s. These dewpoints with max
temperatures moving back into the mid 90s will result in heat
indices back around 105 for the majority of the area and from 105-110
over the ArkLaMiss delta region. Already today, with the slow
convective development, heat indices have reached to near 105 over
western portions. With heat indices pushing 110 in the delta, will
issue a Heat Advisory for this area for mainly tomorrow afternoon./26/

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday night...Models remain in good
agreement that warmer than normal temperatures and lower rain chances
will occur through the long term period. Normal afternoon highs run
near 90F and normal morning lows run near 70F. Thursday a 594dam mid
level high will be centered over the central Gulf coast states and
sitting atop of a >1020mb ridge nosing southwest from the southern
Appalachians. Together these ridges will work to limit convection and
allow for warmer afternoon highs. Wl still have a very moist air mass
over our CWA Thursday with PWATs near two inches. Daytime heating
will lead to convection that will be greatest around the periphery of
the mid level ridge, over our western zones. The high temperatures
will combine with high humidity to result in peak heat index values
of 100-104. The mid level high will shift east Friday becoming
centered over the Carolinas Saturday but still looks to remain the
dominant feature in our weather through Monday. It`s worth noting
that this is the second run in a row that the ECMWF brings a tropical
feature across the Florida peninsula Monday and into the eastern Gulf
Tuesday. This feature remains absent in the GFS. As the mid level
high becomes centered over the Carolinas drier air from the east will
move into our CWA and lower PWATs below and inch and a half. Model
consensus suggests this will only affect out southeast zones Friday
then spread across more of our CWA Saturday with a drier air mass
remaining in place through Monday. This will result in greatest rain
chances being carried in the west through Saturday with very low rain
chances expected areawide Sunday and Monday. /22/


&&

.AVIATION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue across
portions of the forecast area through early this evening, with the
greatest chances for impacts to TAF sites being KJAN, KHKS, KMEI,
and KHBG. Locally gusty winds to around 25 kts and brief periods of
reduced visibility are possible near heavy showers and storms this
afternoon. Otherwise VFR conditions and light winds are expected to
prevail through this evening. Light winds early Wednesday morning
and residual moisture from any rain today will likely produce patchy
fog, with mention of BR around 12Z included in TAFS./NF/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       75  94  75  94 /   4  26  10  35
Meridian      75  96  75  96 /  13  30  13  25
Vicksburg     75  95  75  94 /   1  24  10  38
Hattiesburg   75  95  75  93 /  24  46  19  33
Natchez       74  93  74  93 /   2  34  12  48
Greenville    75  96  75  94 /   1  14  10  35
Greenwood     74  94  74  94 /   1  19  10  27

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ018-019-
     025-034>036-040>042-047-053-059.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ007>009-
     015-016-023-025.

AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$



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