Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 110348 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
948 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Updated for evening discussion.


Made a few minor adjustments to the short-term forecast. Lowered
min temps a little for tonight, especially around the Pine Belt
region where snow lingered into the day and ground temps will be
chillier in addition to light winds. Also adjusted dew points
downward by a few degrees across the forecast area for the
daytime on Monday, per trends in latest short-term guidance. /NF/

Prior discussion below:

Tonight through tomorrow...

Another clear, cool night is expected throughout the ArkLaMiss
tonight. The best chances for subfreezing temperatures will exist
in counties east of the I-55 corridor. All other locations will
remain in the mid 30`s.Temperatures will be significantly warmer
tomorrow, finally eclipsing average high temperature values at
most locations. Highs could even push 70 degrees in some western
locations. Fire weather concerns will be relegated to the Delta
region where drier air and stronger winds will be present. Weak
moisture advection and recent precipitation should be enough to
lessen fire weather conditions in other areas.

Monday night through Saturday:

Overall a quiet and progressive pattern is in store as a few dry
cold fronts move through the region. At the start of the period, our
area will be focused synoptically under broad scale northwest flow &
troughing while the strong mid-level ridging will persist out across
the Great Basin/Desert Southwest. This will help drive a few dry
cold fronts through the area, with the first one coming through by
Tuesday morning. Overall expect dry & cooler conditions with high
temperatures slightly below normal in the wake on Tuesday. Expect a
cold night Tuesday night as strong surface ridging to our west &
around quarter of an inch PWs help us fall below freezing, in the
mid 20s-low 30s. As another shortwave dives down into the central
Plains to mid-Mississippi Valley Tuesday night through Wednesday,
expect a warming trend as low dewpoints & pressure gradient should
help efficient mixing to occur. This will help the region warm to
near normal temperatures. Right now it doesn`t look dry enough to
really warrant mentioning anything in the HWO for any fire weather
concerns but will have to keep an eye on it for areas north of I-
20 if it trends drier.

Another frontal passage is possible later in the week around
Thursday as the shortwave dives through & deep troughing & surge of
colder air dive down south. The latest Euro has trended slower than
the previous trending back some rain showers along the coastal areas
to closer to the weekend. It seems to be slowly phasing the western
portion of longwave energy with an upper low over northern Mexico.
This is quicker than the GFS & Canadian & more phased, meaning some
colder air & quicker progression of rain chances along the coastal
areas are possible. By next weekend, models seem to diverge on the
cold front & rain chances. The GFS & Canadian seem to handle this by
developing the mean trough axis further west whereas the Euro is
less amplified & more forcing moving into the Great Lakes. The newer
Euro is drier than the other global models while better moisture
return & rain chances are possible with the other models. Right now,
this would be late in the weekend. Regardless, expect thermal
profiles & warmer than normal conditions & dry going into the start
of the weekend. /DC/


00Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.
Winds will be light tonight around 5kts or less, with a slight
increase tomorrow to 5-9kts but still mainly out of the southwest.


Jackson       33  67  38  53 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      29  63  38  53 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     32  67  39  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   30  63  38  54 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       32  67  40  54 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    34  67  39  52 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     32  67  37  51 /   0   0   0   0





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