Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 290211
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
911 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

.UPDATE...A large closed upper level low remains centered just south
of the Great Lakes with a secondary re-enforcing cold front currently
draped across the TN/MS state line. This cold front will continue to
push south through the CWA this evening. Latest model guidance is in
agreement on the front entering our northern tier of counties around
6z, pushing south into the I-20 corridor around 9z and exiting the
CWA around daybreak Thur morning. Dry air through the depth of the
column ahead of the front and a lack of forcing will keep skies
clear overnight. The only adjustment needed for this update was to
tweak the overnight min temps. Temps were lowered a degree or two
along and north of I-20 as cooler air filters in behind the frontal
passage, however stayed on the warmer side/just above MOS guidance as
conditions won`t be as ideal for radiational cooling tonight as we
saw last night. Subtle moisture pooling ahead of the frontal boundary
will result in relatively higher dewpoints, and thus when combined
with sustained surface winds behind the front will help to inhibit
radiational cooling. /TW/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds will become
northwesterly overnight as another cold front moves through the
area. Sustained winds will generally be in the 5 to 10 knots range,
but may gust up to 20 knots during the afternoon Thursday./26/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 237 PM CDT WED SEP 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Tonight and Thursday...Look for a quiet and overall cool evening. A
re-enforcing cool front will enter the far NW close to 9pm and
steadily push through the area overnight. Temperatures overnight will
be a challenge as winds in the wake of the front will help keep
readings up a bit, but also in the wake will be cooler air filtering
in. On Thursday, steady cool air advection will bring a noticeably
cooler feel to the air. Despite full sunshine, readings will range
from upper 70s to lower 80s as you go N-S. Look for a nice northerly
breeze as well with 8-13 mph winds. As for any fire danger concerns,
we will remain dry but afternoon minimum RH values will be higher on
Thursday than they were today. Due to this, no threats will be
mentioned in the HWO. /CME/

Friday through next Wednesday...Dry conditions will continue through
the remainder of the forecast period with no sensible weather impacts
anticipated. A large upper low will loiter over the Ohio Valley
through Saturday. Though slightly greater low level moisture
associated with this system may sneak into northern portions of the
CWA bringing an increase in clouds, at the mid and upper levels an
axis of drier air will rotate across the area. It is somewhat
uncertain whether or not we`ll be able to fully decouple by Friday
morning in the wake of tonight/early tomorrow`s front, however,
greater confidence exists that we will Saturday and Sunday morning
as a surface high begins to build in across the eastern CONUS. This
should provide ideal radiational cooling conditions with temps
falling well into the 50s. Given lower heights in association with
the upper low, daytime temps will struggle to reach the 80s on
Friday, though they should begin to recover Saturday as the low
begins to pull away from the area.

With the upper low lifting northward toward the Great Lakes over the
weekend, upper ridging will take its place by early next week, with
temperatures quickly recovering to above normal. Low level vectors
will be very gradual to turn back around, with return flow not
anticipated until the middle of next week. Thus, the forecast remains
rain free through the end of the period. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       59  78  53  79 /   1   0   0   0
Meridian      58  80  50  80 /   1   0   0   2
Vicksburg     59  79  52  81 /   1   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   61  82  53  80 /   1   0   0   0
Natchez       61  77  52  79 /   1   0   0   0
Greenville    55  78  54  80 /   1   0   0   2
Greenwood     54  77  52  77 /   1   0   0   3

&&

.JAN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

CME/DL


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