Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KKEY 021856
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
256 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE FLORID PENINSULA HAS A ROBUST AREA OF LOW LEVEL
VORTICITY IN APALACHEE BAY IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE TUTT CELL
OVER THE BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE TROUGH AND TRAPPED
BY AN ATLANTIC AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM
KEY WEST TO KEY LARGO...VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AROUND 5 KNOTS FROM
SMITH PULASKI SHOALS...AND VARIABLE AROUND 5 KNOTS AT THE ISLAND
TERMINALS.

.FORECAST...
SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY IS NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OF THE
TUTT AND WILL DRIFT SOUTHWEST AS A MID LATITUDE TROUGH CROSSES THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH
DIGS THROUGH THE EAST COAST...THE TUTT WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST...WHILE
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE TUTT
HAS AN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT THAT WILL PASS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE THIS FEATURE MOVES OUT OF THE REACH OF THE
KEYS. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE LOW END CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH THE TUTT MOVING
AWAY THE RIDGE WILL SET UP EASTERLY BREEZES WHICH WILL PEAK AND LULL
DUE TO DIURNAL EFFECTS AND WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE PRESSURE FIELD
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE
OVER THE KEYS ONCE AGAIN WITH GENTLE TO LIGHT WINDS. THIS TIME FRAME
FITS IN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT SAHARAN DUST EVENT THAT WILL
ALSO BRING OUR RAIN CHANCES DOWN TO THE LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL SLIDE TO THE NORTH THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...WHICH WILL
INCREASE BREEZES TO GENTLE TO MODERATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE CURRENT GULF STREAM ANALYSIS PRODUCT IS FIVE DAYS OLD.
THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT HAS DELAYED THE PRODUCTION OF A MORE CURRENT ANALYSIS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS.
SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT...FLOWING AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
AS OF 200 PM TODAY...THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AT KEY WEST WAS 84
DEGREES. IF THE TEMPERATURE DOES NOT GO BELOW THAT BEFORE THE END OF
THE DAY...IT WILL TIED THE DAILY RECORD WARM LOW SET BACK IN 2010.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  83  90  82  91 / 10 20 30 30
MARATHON  83  92  82  93 / 10 20 30 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.................BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS/CLIMATE.....KN
DATA COLLECTION...............CHESSER

VISIT US ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/KEY

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT...

WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSKEYWEST
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSKEYWEST


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.