Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KKEY 301816
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
216 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016
KBYX detects scattered showers throughout the forecast area. Skies
over the island chain are cloudy. Winds over land are south near 20
mph. C-MAN winds, on average, are south to southwest at 20 to 25
knots, with gusts near 30 knots. Temperatures range from the upper
70s in rain cooled areas to the lower 80s elsewhere.
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday night)...
Tropical Depression Nine is centered about 340 miles west of Key
West. This tropical depression will likely strength into a tropical
storm later today as it progresses to the west-northwest. The
tropical cyclone will turn to the north-northwest tonight, followed by
a turn to the north-northeast Wednesday. An Atlantic ridge of high
pressure will build across the Florida Straits Wednesday night
through Thursday night. Rain chances in the short term portion of the
forecast will be highest tonight and Wednesday when the
aforementioned tropical cyclone is at its closest proximity to the
.LONG TERM (Friday through Tuesday)...
An Atlantic ridge of high pressure will extend across the Florida
Straits Friday and Friday night, before retreating eastward Saturday.
A trough of low pressure may develop just off the southeast coast of
the United States late this weekend into early next week. No
discernible low level disturbances are expected to impact the Florida
Keys Friday through Tuesday. As a result, the long term portion of
the forecast will be based on climatology
A small craft advisory will be in effect for all Keys coastal waters
tonight due to sustained south surface winds of 20 to 25 knots. A
small craft advisory will likely be required for the coastal waters
of the offshore Gulf of Mexico and the western portions of Hawk
Channel and the Florida Straits Wednesday and Wednesday night. A
small craft advisory may be required for the coastal waters of the
offshore Gulf of Mexico Thursday. No advisories expected Thursday
night through Sunday night.
Short period MVFR to IFR conditions are expected near fast-moving
showers this afternoon and tonight. Sustained south winds between
170-200 degrees will average 12-14 knots, with gusts to between 20
and 25 knots, but some convective gusts between 30 and 35 knots are
possible within the fast-moving showers.
On this date in Florida Keys weather history, in 1891, 3.76 inches of
rain fell in Key West. This set the daily record for maximum rainfall
measured in Key West on August 30th, a record which still stands 125
years later. Rainfall records at Key West date back to 1871.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West 78 86 80 88 / 50 50 40 40
Marathon 78 89 81 90 / 50 50 40 40
GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.
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