Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 282000
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
300 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MARITIME TROPICAL AIR HAS RETURNED TO FLORIDA KEYS ISLAND COMMUNITIES
IN EARNEST TODAY AFTER ONLY A BRIEF RESPITE. CURRENTLY...AIR
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 70S. SUNSHINE IS PLENTIFUL WITH SUMMER-LIKE CUMULUS CLOUDS
EMANATING OFF THE HEATED ISLANDS. THE ATMOSPHERE IS SUFFICIENTLY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...A LACK OF
SURFACE FORCING PRECLUDES SUCH DEVELOPMENT LOCALLY. THE SITUATION IS
DIFFERENT OVER MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE THE PRESENCE OF AN OLD
FRONTAL/SHEAR ZONE AND SEA/LAKE BREEZES ARE FACILITATING SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. MEANWHILE...A LARGE AREA OF
DENSE FOG WHICH HAD ENSHROUDED DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING HAS GRADUALLY BECOME LESS DENSE WHILE MOVING WESTWARD.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE FOG HAS SHIFTED WEST OF
THE SERVICE AREA...SO THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE CELL IS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AND MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD. UNIFORM
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID/UPPER
TROPOSPHERE OVER THE GULF BASIN AND FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE JUST EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA.

FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS -- THE PRIMARY POLAR FRONT AND STORM TRACK
WILL REMAIN FAR NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
GOVERNING ALOFT...AND EASTERLIES PREVAILING AT LOW LEVELS. WARMER-
THAN AVERAGE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...WITH NIL TO SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS HAWK CHANNEL AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT FOR EAST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS. SEAS UP TO 6
FEET WILL BE PRESENT IN THE GULF STREAM. AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS EVENING WILL
MOVE SWIFTLY EASTWARD AND ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR
PATH MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
TONIGHT...VFR COND WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE KEY INTL AND MTH FL KEYS
TERMINALS. EXPECT SFC WINDS TO AVG FRM 100 DEG AOA 10-12 KNOTS WITH
GSTS BET 16 TO 20 KTS WILL CONTINUE TILL AFT SUNSET..ABOUT
0100Z...THEN SFC WINDS INCR TO BET 12-14 KNOTS WITH GSTS BET 20-25
KTS. EXPECT FEW-SCT CUM CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA FL015- 025 & A MID DECK
AOA FL080-100 RESPECTIVELY. ANY MVFR CIGS WILL BE VERY BRIEF.
&&

.CLIMATE...IN 1935...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 50F WAS
RECORDED. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....FUTTERMAN
DATA COLLECTION.......PARKE

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