Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 121734
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1234 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED STORMS ARE STARTING TO FORM IN AND AROUND RAPIDES PARISH
THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH WITH AEX THE FIRST
TAF LOCATION TO EXPERIENCE SOME ISSUES WITH CEILINGS AND TSTMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/

UPDATE...
SFC HIGH PRES NOW CNTRD OVER SE TX...WITH NR CALM OR LT NLY WINDS
ACRS THE AREA. LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE MOSTLY CLR
SKIES...ALTHOUGH A FEW CU ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
MEANWHILE...SCT TSTMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS CONTINUE TO MOVE SW.

ADJUSTED POPS DOWN FOR THIS AFTN. GIVEN THE LOW LVL NELY FLOW...DO
NOT EXPECT MUCH INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEABREEZE TODAY. MID LVL
HIGH PRES SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE
AFTN. HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS SUFFICIENT WITH PW VALUES BETWEEN
1.5-1.8 INCHES AND INSTABILITY AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS OR TSTMS
FROM MIDDAY TO LATE AFTN.

TEMPS AS OF 11 AM HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO NR
90...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK
TO REACH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S ACRS ALL BUT COASTAL PORTIONS OF
THE AREA SO ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS UP SLIGHTLY. UPDATES ARE OUT.  24

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/

AVIATION...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR
VCTS AROUND ALL TERMINALS TODAY ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACH AROUND
NOON. AN INVERTED TROF OR EASTERLY WAVE WILL APPROACH. OTHERWISE VFR.

SWEENEY

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014/

SYNOPSIS...

A WARM DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE...VICINITY LONGVIEW...WILL MOVE LITTLE
THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE EXITING INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY.

FURTHER UP...A TUTT LOW WILL FORM OFFSHORE PENSACOLA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS UPPER-LEVEL COLD-CORE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST...
TRAVELING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY.

DISCUSSION...

NORTHERLY IMPULSES...EMANATING OUT OF EASTERN ARKANSAS/SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...WILL TRAVEL SOUTHWARD ALONG THE OUTER EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE WARM DOME THIS AFTERNOON.

THE LIFT ATTENDING DIFFERENTIAL DAYTIME HEATING AND/OR THE SEA
BREEZE WILL PHASE IN WITH THE LIFT ATTENDING THE NORTHERLY
IMPULSES...BRINGING ABOUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE LARGEST THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE RAIN APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA (LIKELY POPS). IN GENERAL...MY FORECAST POPS
CLOSELY FOLLOW THE 00 UTC EUROPEAN MODEL SOLUTION.

OTHERWISE...THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL
BE RUNNING ABOUT SEASONAL FOR MID JULY. THE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
WILL BE RUNNING BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT SHOULD COME TO AN END BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY...AS THE
TRAVELING TUTT LOW BRINGS ADDITIONAL LIFT INTO THE PICTURE.

MARINE...

THE FULL BUCK MOON WILL BRING ABOUT A 2 TO 2.5-FOOT RANGE BETWEEN
THE LOWER LOW TIDE AND THE HIGHER HIGH TIDE. THE ACTUAL TIDE WILL
BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIDE TABLE VALUES.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  92  76  92  77 /  20  50  10  30  20
KBPT  75  90  75  91  76 /  20  50  10  30  20
KAEX  75  94  75  94  75 /  20  50  10  20  30
KLFT  76  91  75  92  76 /  20  60  10  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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&&

$$






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