Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 280100
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
800 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UNLIKE LAST NIGHT BEGINNINGS OF AN MCS OVER NORTH TEXAS HEADING
DOWN INTO OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...TONIGHT LOOKS PROMISING
FOR A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.
WHILE NORTH TEXAS IS NOT WITHOUT CONVECTION...IT IS MORE SCATTERED
IN NATURE AND DOES NOT HAVE THE SAME ORGANIZATION AS LAST NIGHT.
LATEST HRR MODEL WHICH HAD A GOOD HANDLE LAST NIGHT...IS NOT
FORESHADOWING ANY PROBLEMS FOR US AND CONFIRMS OUR FORECAST FOR A
PEACEFUL SLEEP TONIGHT. FINGERS CROSSED.

TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM THIS
WITHIN 1 TO 2 DEGREES. NO CHANGES AND WILL LET THE FORECAST
PACKAGE RIDE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

AVIATION...VFR ONGOING AT ALL TERMINALS WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED
ALTOCU AND CIRRUS ABOUT THE AREA. THIS SHOULD REMAIN THE THEME
THROUGH THE NIGHT. DAYTIME HEATING WITH BRING THE ONSET OF CU
DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY MORNING...AND SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME ACTIVITY LOOKS TO HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT
AT AEX AND CARRYING A TEMPO GROUP ACCORDINGLY. FURTHER SOUTH AT
ALL REMAINING TERMINALS...BELIEVE VCTS WILL SUFFICE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A GENERALLY WARM AND PLEASANT DAY UNFOLDED IN THE WAKE OF THE
QLCS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH PLENTY OF
SUN ALLOWING TEMPERATURES AT MOST SITES TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER/MID 80S. WITH CLOUD COVER TAKING LONGER TO CLEAR SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA...READINGS HERE ARE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S...THOUGH THERE ARE A FEW MORE HRS OF WARMING SUNLIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT IS FCST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROF THAT HELPED GENERATE THE MORNING
CONVECTION...AND DO NOT SEE ANOTHER FEATURE UPSTREAM THAT WOULD
RESULT IN A SIMILAR SCENARIO. FLOW ALOFT BECOMES A BIT DIVERGENT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND WITH PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
DIURNAL INSTABILITY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED.

THE SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
PUSHING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS PROGGED TO REACH
EASTERN TEXAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT OVER THE NW GULF COAST REGION. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE PAC NW WILL PHASE
WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN MORE SUBSTANTIAL
LIFT SAT/SUN...BEFORE THE TROF AXIS SLOWLY BEGINS TO PIVOT EAST
OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS...GREATEST PROBABILITY OF
WIDESPREAD AND/OR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH CHANCES SUBSIDING A BIT HEADING THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION...NO
MAJOR DAILY CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH AFTERNOON
READINGS NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...AND OVERNIGHT/MORNING LOWS
RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE.

13

MARINE...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH END OF THE WEEK...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT COLLAPSING
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPS INTO THE REGION. UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES MIXED WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  70  87  70  86 /  20  50  20  50
LCH  73  86  73  86 /  10  40  20  40
LFT  72  87  72  86 /  20  40  20  40
BPT  74  86  74  85 /  10  40  20  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...06


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