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000
FXUS64 KLCH 240117
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
817 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...WILL BE UPDATING POPS THROUGH 06Z AS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO DECREASE ACROSS LOWER ACADIANA. AFTER
THIS...ATTENTION TURNS TO FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. CURRENT
PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. NO OTHER UPDATES
PLANNED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA ERUPTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER C AND SC LA ALONG A
WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE ARKLATEX...AFTERNOON
HEATING...AND PVA AHEAD OF THE REMNANT VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS EARLIER MCS OVER THE ARKLATEX. THESE SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE
TO REFORM ALONG ITS OWN GENERATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THRU SUNSET.
THUS...KEPT VCTS AND TEMPO GROUP FOR AEX/LFT/ARA THRU 02Z FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 02Z...BECOMING
MORE PREDOMINATE OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES. POSSIBLE IFR/LIFR VSBY
FOR LCH/LFT/ARA BETWEEN 09-13Z.

DML

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA ARE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT. NOTHING SIGNIFICANT DISPLAYED
ON RADAR, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
STATE. THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING FEATURED DRY AIR ALOFT, AND
MOISTURE BELOW. A VEERING WIND PROFILE, IDENTIFIED BY CLOCKWISE
WINDS, EXISTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL PUSH A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE WITH
THIS FRONT IF DAYTIME HEATING IS SUFFICIENT DURING THE AFTERNOON,
PAIRED WITH THE DRIER AIR EXISTING IN THE UPPER LEVELS. BEHIND THE
FRONT, SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE FELT, BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.

FOLLOWING THE GFS MODEL GUIDANCE, MEMORIAL DAY, AS WELL AS THE
REST OF EARLY NEXT WEEK, APPEARS TO BE WARM AND DRY AS A RESULT OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDING BUILDING OVER EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN
LOUISIANA.

STACKHOUSE

MARINE...FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING LOCALLY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW TO NEAR
20 KTS BY WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  72  89  69  87  67 /  10  20  10  10  10
KBPT  73  89  70  86  69 /  10  20  10  10  10
KAEX  70  87  62  87  64 /  30  20  10  20  10
KLFT  70  90  68  88  66 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$