Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 250330
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1030 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.UPDATE...
FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FM JUST NORTH OF RUSTON SW TO NEAR COLLEGE
STATION. CONVECTION OCCURRING ON THE FORWARD FLANK OF A POTENT
MID/UPPER TROF NOW WELL NE OF THE AREA...WHILE A FEW SHOWERS WERE
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACRS NRN LA. FRONT
STILL EXPECTED TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...REACHING
THE COAST BY EARLY FRI MORNING. CURRENT FCST IN PRETTY GOOD
SHAPE...BUT ADJUSTED POP/WX GRIDS FOR TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING
WITH RAIN CHANCES NOT EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE ACRS OUR AREA UNTIL
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO TWEAKED TEMP...DEWPOINT AND WIND GRIDS TO
BLEND WITH RECENT OBS/TRENDS. 24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BREAKDOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN UPPER
GULF COAST STATES...ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE ON THROUGH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY...AS
POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS KEEP THE NOCTURNAL LAYER SOMEWHAT MIXED.

JT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX/

DISCUSSION...
LINE OF SHOWERS OVER SETX WEAKENED QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY
MOVED INTO THE WESTERN CWA. GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S. COLD FRONT IN TX MOVES SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD DRAPE OUT
OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM AND THEN REACH
THE COAST BY 6-9AM WITH DRYING IN THE WAKE. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BUT
INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING AND CAP INTENSIFYING. MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO POPS FOR TONIGHT GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE FROPA AND ADDED
SOME PATCHY FOG TO THE AREAS FROM LAKE CHARLES TO WASHINGTON IN
ST. LANDRY PARISH SOUTHEASTWARD MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOG MIGHT
GET A LITTLE THICK BUT SHOULD WAIT TO SEE HOW THE CLOUD COVER
PLAYS OUT THIS EVENING. FRONT STALLS FRIDAY AND THEN LIFTS BACK
NORTH EARLY SATURDAY AND MAY HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF FOG FRIDAY
NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST SUNDAY AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS
LLJ MOVES OVERHEAD AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION
ON MONDAY. HAVE EXTENDED POPS INTO TUESDAY AS GFS IS SLOWER WITH
THE EVENTUAL CF PASSAGE AND SLOWER WITH RAINFALL AS WELL VS THE
FASTER ECMWF. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT RAINFALL SHOULD BE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
IMPRESSIVE DIFFLUENCE AND PW INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5-1.8" WITH
ONLY LIMITED CINH. COOLER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND COOLER STILL ON
THURSDAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIRMASS OVERHEAD.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  63  82  63  81 /  20  20  10  10
KBPT  65  82  66  79 /  20  20  10  10
KAEX  61  82  61  83 /  20  10  10  10
KLFT  66  82  65  82 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$






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