Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 130946

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
346 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

A progressive pattern setting up over the next five days will
begin rather benignly today as high pressure over the northern
gulf gradually slides east beneath increasing high clouds brought
on by a cut off low centered over the Baja peninsula. The
combination of these features will moisten the entire column over
the next 24 hours in advance of an upper trough and weak frontal
boundary progged to dig south out of the midwest and push through
the region late Thursday into early Friday. At present guidance is
in very good agreement in keeping the best rain chances offshore,
but isolated to scattered showers will be possible inland
especially along and south of the I-10 corridor.

The front then stalls just off the coast Friday evening where a
deepening upper trough over old Mexico will induce a surface low
across the western gulf. This feature will eject northeast
Saturday into early Sunday bringing widespread showers and
thunderstorms across the entire area and pushing another frontal
boundary through the region during the day Sunday. Given the
somewhat complex nature of this solution, guidance is in very
good agreement. This has necessitated a considerable increase in
POP`s during the Saturday afternoon/Sunday morning timeframe
compared to the previous forecast. Confidence is high with regards
to the evolution although some tweaking to timing may still be
necessary based on future model runs.

Its from here that the longer range guidance begins to diverge and
forecast confidence is considerably lower. The Euro quickly
swings another, dry, reinforcing front through the area Monday
while the GFS indicates a slower, more moisture laden frontal
system moving through Tuesday. For the time being, low end POPs
will be carried Tuesday until guidance becomes more reliable.
Temperatures during this period have also been blended between the
two solutions.



High pressure will move across the northern gulf today turning
offshore flow this morning back onshore by this afternoon. A weak
cold front will move through the region Thursday night into early
Friday bringing scattered showers through the coastal waters and
turning increasing winds back out of the north Friday. Winds
behind the front will approach small craft advisory criteria. This
front will then recede back to the north as warm front as a
surface low develops across the western gulf and tracks northeast
through the area bringing numerous showers and thunderstorms
across the coastal waters Saturday into Sunday.


AEX  62  38  62  37 /   0   0   0  10
LCH  62  44  69  42 /   0   0   0  20
LFT  62  44  69  42 /   0   0   0  20
BPT  62  44  69  44 /   0   0   0  20




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