Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 280555
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1155 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

.AVIATION...
Ceilings have been dropping with this trend expected to cont thru
the overnight hours... MVFR/IFR dropping to LIFR before sunrise.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1003 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...Forecast looks good. No update coming.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 758 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017/

AVIATION...
Clouds lowering thru the eve hrs. Looking for BR/FG late tnght.
most TAF lctns currently running running MVFR/VFR. Overnight clds
falling w/ decks running from 006 to 013. Conditions to improve
aftr sr.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 200 PM CST Mon Feb 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...A cold front is stalled from roughly Dallas to
Alexandria to Mobile this afternoon. Temperatures in central LA
just north of the front are in the 60s while across the East TX
Lakes and South LA temps are in the low 80s to mid 70s. A weak
disturbance aloft is pushing across East TX and LA with a few
storms ahead of the short wave and in the vicinity of the front.
With the frontal boundary, the short wave, and a warm and moist
air mass being pulled north there is a marginal to slight risk of
severe weather over portions of East TX and LA through the
remainder of the day.

Tonight into tomorrow a stronger short wave will move across the
Rockies allowing low pressure to form in the plains. This will
lift the front back north. A few shower will be possible Tuesday
while the warm and moist air mass remains in place.

Tuesday Night and Wednesday the plains low will move toward the
Great Lakes while the short wave moves across the central sections
of the country. This will swing a cold front through our region
Wednesday. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected
as this occurs. With the warm and moist air mass in place an
isolated strong to severe storm can not be ruled out, however the
best dynamics look just removed to the north and east.

A cooler and more seasonable air mass will move in behind the
boundary and linger into the weekend, but by Sunday the above
normal temperatures are expected to return as high pressure
departs the region and the return flow begins again.

MARINE...A few showers and patchy fog can be expected ahead of
the front through Wednesday Morning. Thunderstorms may accompany
the front Wednesday Afternoon. A moderate to strong offshore flow
is expected behind the front into Thursday. A moderate to strong
easterly flow is then expected into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  67  84  69  78 /  30  20  20  60
LCH  69  82  69  80 /  20  10  20  50
LFT  69  82  70  79 /  20  10  10  50
BPT  70  82  70  81 /  10  10  20  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...19



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