Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 260950
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
250 AM PDT Fri May 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure trough moves across northern Nevada
and brings scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. A warming
trend occurs next week as strong high pressure covers the western
states.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday.
A closed low over southwest Idaho drives a cold front through
northern Nevada this morning. The closed low stays over southern
Idaho as it tracks eastward, but some mid level cold advection
filters into Elko county for scattered showers and possible
thunderstorms. The surface front cuts across northern Nye into
southern White Pine county this afternoon. The HRRR/RAP hints of
spotty convection along the front late in the day, including
Great Basin National Park.

The closed low weakens and becomes an open wave as it moves
downstream into the central Rockies. High pressure builds over
northern California Saturday and expands into Nevada on Sunday.
This results in warmer drier conditions over the Memorial Day
weekend.

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through Friday.

West Coast upper ridge shifts east over the interior West and
Great Basin Sunday night into Memorial Day which will provide
mostly clear skies and increasingly warmer temperatures across
Nevada through Tuesday. Normally warm spots like Winnemucca,
Gabbs, and Denio should easily be back up around or a little
above 90 while most other locations warm into the 80s. Model
differences arise again toward midweek as ridging breaks down and
elongated Pacific trough with a slightly negative tilt forces
shortwave energy and some moisture into the region Wednesday into
Thursday. Specific details remain unclear at this time, as both
the GFS and ECMWF models over the past few days have struggled
between developing a weak cut-off low or keeping the flow more
open and progressive. As has been the case this entire spring, the
duration of ridging over the Great Basin does not last nearly as
long as the models initially forecast. There will be a small
chance of a few showers and isolated thunderstorms (mainly of the
dry variety) Wednesday and Thursday. Somewhat breezy conditions
may develop on Wednesday across northern Nye, southern Eureka, and
White Pine counties where south to southwest winds could gust up
to 30 mph during the afternoon and early evening. Otherwise, above
normal temperatures are likely through the bulk of next week with
most locations remaining dry.

&&

.AVIATION...Closed upper-level low over Idaho will cause a couple
of upper level disturbances to pivot south/southeast across
Nevada early and later today. Scattered rain and high elevation
mountain snow showers will remain north and northeast of KEKO
early this morning prior to 12Z. A second, stronger upper level
disturbance will move across the region this afternoon and evening.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop with
the daytime heating, but should remain confined to Elko County
mainly north and east of KEKO where a little better moisture and
instability will exist. For now, expect VFR conditions to hold
through this evening at all four stations...KWMC, KEKO, KELY, and
KTPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Cooler afternoon temperatures will serve to slow
snowmelt over the next couple of days, however nighttime
temperatures have not been dropping to freezing so snowmelt
will continue to add flow to the streams around the clock. Also,
much warmer temperatures will return next week. All creeks that
flow out of mountainous areas will see significant rises over the
next several days.

The lower Humboldt River from Comus downstream through Winnemucca
to the Humboldt/Pershing County border will experience minor to
moderate flooding through the weekend. A Flood Warning is in
effect.

The Jarbidge River is expected to experience fluctuating water levels
around minor flood stage over the next several days. A Flood
Warning is in effect.

Lamoille Creek is expected to fluctuate around minor flood stage
into the weekend. A Flood Warning is in effect.

The Humboldt River at Battle Mountain has dropped below flood
stage. The Flood Warning has been cancelled.

The Bruneau River is rising and could reach minor flood stage
over the weekend.

Wildhorse Reservoir is still above the spillway. There is no
threat for flooding at this time downstream along the Owyhee
River.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

88/95/95


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