Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35
000
FXUS65 KLKN 281102
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
402 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THIS WEEK. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
NORTHWARD TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK. AS THIS EPISODE OF MONSOON MOISTURE UNFOLDS IT WILL
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY RESULT
IN FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY TUESDAY OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
IS SHOWING A PRONOUNCED SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN FROM ARIZONA ATTM. THE 00Z
GFS/NAM12 MODELS WERE BOTH INDICATING PWATS 0.90 TO 1.00 INCHES
INTO NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY AT 00Z MONDAY WHILE THE 00Z LKN SOUNDING
INDICATED ONLY 0.69 INCHES. AGAIN IT APPEARS THE MODELS ARE OVER
DOING THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT BASIN LAST
NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING.

TODAY...DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR-CORNER STATES TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TUESDAY. SUBTLE PIECES OF ENERGY /THE FIRST OF WHICH
OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/ LIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND INTERACTS WITH THE NORTHWARD MOISTURE
PUSH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PRODUCTION ACROSS THE CWA
/ESPECIALLY EASTERN NEVADA/ THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS PWATS
APPROACH AN INCH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST CELLS. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE CELLS SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY BE ENCOUNTER OVER EASTERN NEVADA.

TONIGHT...NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST HOWEVER
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN INSTABILITY...NOT EXPECTING THE ACTIVITY
TO BE AS ROBUST LATE TONIGHT AS IT WAS EARLIER IN THE DAY.

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...CONVECTION BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS
DYNAMICS INCREASE TO ENHANCE AND SUPPORT AN INCREASE THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. ANOTHER SURGE OF ENERGY /STRONGER THAN
MONDAY`S/ LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND HAS UPPER LEVEL JET
SUPPORT /LFQ/ ENHANCING THE DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT /CONVECTIVE
EXHAUST/. THE UPPER LEVEL DYMANICS NOW WILL WORK ON PWATS RANGING
FROM 1.00 TO 1.20 INCHES AND ALSO INTERACTS WITH A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY INDICATED BY THE SURFACE AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER
NORTHERN NEVADA. LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
CONVECTION. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FOR THE CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. CURRENT SLUG OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. DIFFERENCES CROP UP IN THE MODELS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
IN REGARDS TO HANDLING THE MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE HERNAN OFF THE
COAST OF MEXICO. THE GFS TAKES SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM THIS
HURRICANE AND MOVES IT ACROSS SOUTHERN CA INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NV
WHILE THE ECMWF TAKES THIS MOISTURE ON ON MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY CONFINED TO CENTRAL NV WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WHILE THE ECMWF WOULD HAVE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NV. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO CURRENT
FORECAST WHICH HAVE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV.
MODELS COME BACK INTO GOOD AGREEMENT FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SHOWING
ANOTHER SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NV FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE UP FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS
MAINLY EASTERN NV TODAY FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY AFFECTING THE KELY AND KEKO TERMINALS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT AND AROUND THE KWMC AND KTPH
TERMINALS. HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR
AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AS MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTHWARD...
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD TO ALL ZONES TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE WET AND SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
DURING TUESDAY AND BURN AREAS WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DEBRIS
FLOWS DUE TO FLASH FLOODING.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
HUMBOLDT COUNTY...NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO
COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...
NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...
SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO
COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

89/91/91/89





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.