Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV
FXUS65 KLKN 301102
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
402 AM PDT Thu Mar 30 2017
.SYNOPSIS...A strong storm system and accompanying cold front will
move through the Great Basin today and tonight bringing very
strong winds and snow to Nevada. Rain and thunderstorms with an
eventual transition to snow will occur throughout today. This
system will exit the state Friday with dry, quiet conditions
expected for the weekend.
.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday. Strong, dynamic trough and
cold front will move through the state today with rapid changes in
conditions expected in some areas. Pre-frontal convergence zone
generating a line of showers in northern Nevada will continue to
move east through the morning hours reaching Elko by sunrise.
Pockets of strong winds aloft near 55 kts could be brought down by
showers as observed earlier this morning before the official Wind
advisory begins for the northern part of the state. Severe wind
gusts to 60 mph are not out the question even prior to the frontal
passage later this morning. Winds will increase rapidly across
the state this morning as low deepens and surface gradient ramps
up, especially behind the cold front. High wind warnings continue
for Nye county while advisory level winds will exist across the
remainder of the CWA today. Winds will remain elevated even
through Friday so issued wind advisory following the expected
expiration of the high wind warnings in northern Nye county to
cover this scenario. Potentially damaging winds of 35 to 45 mph
with gusts to 60 to 70 mph in some locations in northern Nye
county are not out of the question, especially on leeward slopes.
Additional threats of blowing dust and snow will also exist.
Transition from rain to snow across the state will be rapid with
steadily falling snow levels in the post frontal environment.
Convective development will increase ahead of and near the cold
front later this morning beginning in Humboldt county around
sunrise reaching White Pine county by early afternoon.
Thunderstorms are probable with the FROPA as models continue to
show good agreement regarding the convective environment.
Sufficient CAPE values of 400 to 700 along with steepening mid-
level lapse rates throughout the day will support thunderstorms.
The quicker movement of the trough/frontal system will is expected
to translate into less snow accumulation overall. Generally 1 to 3
inches in valleys across the CWA are expected with up to 10 inches
in the Ruby Mountains and the Jarbidge higher terrain area. Winter
weather advisories remain for northern Elko and the Ruby
Friday and Saturday. Lingering light snow will shove eastward
exiting White Pine county by Friday afternoon. Ridging will build
over the region allowing for rebounding temperatures and dry
conditions with highs in the 50s and 60s in valley locations for
.LONG TERM...Saturday night through Thursday. A dirty ridge will
quickly build into the Silver State bringing warmer and dry
weather for Saturday/Sunday. Daytime highs will be near to
slightly above average.
By late Sunday and into Monday morning, the ridge will be
weakening as another trof begins to impact the CWA. Forecast
models continue to come into better agreement tonight. The spread
has lessened, but there is a clustering of H5 closed circulations
west of the Sierras. This is an outlier, but cannot be ruled out
at this time. We have seen this in the past, where a system
continues to dig/close off, and then drops south through Cali. So
even though forecast models are generally in better agreement
tonight, that clustering is of concern.
This system appears to be on the colder side with rain
quickly changing to snow across many of the valleys around
4500-5000ft. There could be light valley snow amounts with
moderate amounts of snow in the mtns. The storm is forecast to
exit the region by Monday night, being replaced by breezy winds
and below average temps.
Tuesday through Thursday, another ridge will quickly build into
the region with a bump in daytime highs. This will remain, until
another storm potentially impacts the region beyond Thursday.
Confidence is quite low at this time beyond Thursday, but an
active pattern is possible.
.AVIATION...Potent storm with impressive upper dynamics digging
southeastward across Nevada today. Convective precipitation and
high winds will accompany the passage of a very strong cold front
which will impact aviation at all TAF sites. Showers &
thunderstorms with rain changing to snow (along and just behind
the cold front) will develop and impact KWMC between 13z and 17z
followed by KEKO between 14z and 18z. VCTS and VCSH will push
southeast to KELY and KTPH after 17z. Strong gusty winds are
possible with any of the heavier showers and storms as well as in
the NW/N flow following the FROPA. Of particular concern, wind
gusts up to 60kts (70mph) along with blowing dust will be
possible at KTPH throughout the afternoon and early evening
between 17z and 0300z. En route turbulence in addition to mountain
waves and obscurations will exist across the state today.
.HYDROLOGY...A strong storm system will bring valley rain early
this morning before changing over to snow throughout today. Up to
a foot of snow is possible to accumulate on the Independence and
Ruby Mountain ranges. Rivers and creeks will likely continue to
run strong as this will be additional runoff through the weekend
and early next week. Total liquid equivalent precipitaion of
around 0.25 to 0.50 is expected across northern Nevada through
Thursday night. Valley snow melt over the weekend will cause
streams and rivers to respond upward next week.
Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT
Friday for Northern Elko County.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening
for Northern Elko County-Ruby Mountains/East Humboldt Range-
South Central Elko County-Southeastern Elko County-Southern
Lander County and Southern Eureka County-Southwestern Elko
County-White Pine County.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening
for Humboldt County-Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT
Friday for Ruby Mountains/East Humboldt Range.
High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this
evening for Northeastern Nye County-Northwestern Nye County.
Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Friday for
Northeastern Nye County-Northwestern Nye County.
Flood warnings are in effect for the following areas:
Humboldt River - Battle Mountain and Comus: Moderate flooding
Marys River: Minor flooding continues.
All other monitored creeks and rivers are below minor flood stage.
River Statements have been issued for the following areas:
Bruneau River - near Charleston
Humboldt River - Carlin
Humboldt River - Palisade