Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Elko, NV

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FXUS65 KLKN 220940
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
240 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT IN MUCH DRIER
WEATHER TODAY WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MORE SUNSHINE. RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE WARM AND DRY WEATHER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WINDY WEATHER WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WITH COOLER WEATHER AND SHOWERS TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THIS HOUR THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WHICH BROUGHT PLENTY OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS
OF THE STATE YESTERDAY IS NOW IN CENTRAL IDAHO AND HEADING
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM US. A FEW SHOWERS LINGER IN THE FAR NORTH AND
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY AS INSTABILITY GROWS ONCE THE SUN COMES
UP. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST...BUT
GENERALLY SPEAKING FORCING ALOFT IS DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY AS A
RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD...WARM AIR MOVES IN ALOFT AND MOISTURE LEVELS
FALL ON WESTERLY WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS. TODAY WILL BE WARMER
THANKS TO THE WARMER AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND
GREATER SUNSHINE...BUT NOT FAR FROM NORMAL FOR MID-LATE SEPTEMBER.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND JET STREAK WILL BRUSH NORTHWESTERN NEVADA
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT RIGHT NOW FEEL THE ODDS ARE
AGAINST IT SO HAVE A DRY FORECAST TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMING AIR ALOFT.

RIDGE WILL SIT TO OUR SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF US
ON WEDNESDAY. DUE TO A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...THIS
WILL MEAN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION BOTH
DAYS...WITH CONTINUED WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND CONSEQUENTLY
AT THE SURFACE. A BIT OF MOISTURE APPEARS LIKELY TO BRING SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WEDNESDAY LOOKS JUST
ABOUT CRYSTAL CLEAR RIGHT NOW. BOTH DAYS SHOULD ALSO BE QUITE DRY
AND AS MENTIONED...WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S IN MOST VALLEYS.
WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
TO THE WEST APPROACHES BUT STILL NOT TOO BAD YET.

GREAT UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE EXTENT OF SMOKE THE NEXT FEW DAYS
GIVEN THE ONGOING FIRES IN CALIFORNIA. FOR NOW HAVE PUT AREAS OF
SMOKE ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES BUT KEPT IT OUT OF THE EAST. BEST
CHANCE FOR SMOKE FURTHER EAST IS PROBABLY TUESDAY...WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY AND POTENTIALLY BLOWING WHATEVER
SMOKE MAKES IT EAST ON TUESDAY OFF TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. RCM

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. MODELS AGREE
WELL ON UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CLOSED UPPER LOW
OFFSHORE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS WITH DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER MOST
OF NEVADA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. PACIFIC LOW WRAPS UP
FAIRLY INSIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INTO ITS FLOW SO THAT SOME LOW POPS
ARE PLACED OVER MAINLY NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN NEVADA THURSDAY.
THESE POPS GRADUALLY OVERTAKE CENTRAL...EASTERN...AND NORTHERN
NEVADA BY FRIDAY AND BEYOND...BUT ARE ON THE LOW SIDE. GFS TENDS
TO TRY AND BRING A VERY WEEK TROPICAL CONNECTION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST BUT CAN`T QUITE MAKE THE CONNECTION THIS FAR NORTH. EURO
AND DGEX DO MAKE A STRONGER CONNECTION BUT TEND TO DRAG THE
MOISTURE PLUME EAST MORE INTO UTAH AND ROCKIES. HENCE...WITH THESE
DIFFERENCES WILL KEEP POPS LOW IN THE ENTIRE PERIOD. FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY AND WINDS SHIFT AND BECOME GUSTY INTO FRIDAY
BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE FIRST TASTE OF FALL.
WILL NEED TO WATCH WIND SPEEDS IN SELECT AREA FOR DOWNSLOPE
STRENGTHENING DUE TO THERMAL PACKING ALOFT AND TIGHT THICKNESS
GRADIENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CIGS AND VIS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. SMOKE MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT KWMC THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT TO LESS THAN 6SM...AND AFFECT SLANT VISIBILITY AT KTPH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER WEATHER TODAY AS UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST. JUST ENOUGH INFLUENCE REMAINING IN THE FAR NORTHEAST TO
CAUSE A STRAY THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE VERY
ISOLATED. NO THUNDERSTORMS OR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH WARM
WEATHER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS. WINDY
WEATHER EXPECTED THURSDAY AHEAD OF A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WITH
COOLER WEATHER AND SHOWERS BEHIND IT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

93/98/98/93



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