Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 301000
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
330 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND FAIR WEATHER ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS TO PARTS OF THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...ALONG WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. HOT AND DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...
UNEXCITING 582 DM ZONAL NW FLOW OVER CALIFORNIA. BIGGER NEWS IS AT
THE SFC WHERE GRADIENTS ARE OFFSHORE BOTH FROM THE NORTH AND THE
EAST. THESE GRADIENTS HAVE KEPT ALL LOW CLOUDS AWAY EXPECT FOR A
LITTLE PATCH IN WESTERN SBA COUNTY AND THE SNS RIVER VLY. THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL GENERATE SOME MTN WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME 15 MPH
CANYON WINDS IN SOME VLY LOCATIONS SO NOT REALLY A SANTA ANA BUT
MORE IMPORTANTLY IT WILL DELAY OR ELIMINATE THE SEA BREEZE WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMED COMPARED TO YDYS READINGS.

REAL TOUGH CLOUD FCST TONIGHT AS THE COMPETING STRATUS FORCES OF
OFFSHORE FLOW AND AN EDDY GO HEAD TO HEAD. NAM INDICATES THAT EDDY
WILL BRING STRATUS TO THE VTA AND L.A. COASTS. NORTH FLOW WILL BRING
SOME NORTH SLOPE CLOUDS TO SBA STA AND LA MTNS AS WELL AS CUYAMA
VLY. THE LOMPOC VANDENBERG AREA WILL PROBABLY ALSO SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS. BUT TRUTHFULLY THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT THE SKIES
WILL JUST STAY CLEAR. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE AND THAT
WILL BRING A TOUCH OF COOLING TO THE CSTS AND VLYS WHILE THE
INTERIOR SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME.

ON WEDNESDAY EVENING A FAST MOVING TROF ZIPS THROUGH NEVADA AND A
LARGE EAST PAC UPPER HIGH MOVES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. AT THE SAME
TIME A STRONG COLD SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SETS UP
THE FIRST OFFSHORE WIND EVENT OF THE SEASON. THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
UPPER LEVEL WIND OR THERMAL SUPPORT SO NOT LOOKING FOR ANY GREAT
WIND EVENT BUT FAVORED SANTA ANA WIND AREAS WILL SEE NORTHEAST WINDS
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH AND PERHAPS 5 MPH HIGHER IN THE
MTNS. SKIES OF COURSE WILL BE CLEAR AND COAST AND VLY TEMPS WILL
SOAR. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF 90 DEGREE READINGS TO GO AROUND IN THE
VLYS AND INTERIOR COASTAL SECTIONS.


.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
NOTHING BUT HEAT AND CLEAR SKIES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE UPPER
HIGH WILL SIT ATOP OF THE STATE THROUGH SUNDAY. IT WILL PEAK WITH
592 DM HGTS SATURDAY. HGTS WILL SLOWLY FALL SUNDAY AND MONDAY UPPER
HIGH WILL BREAK DOWN INTO A RIDGE. STILL HGTS WILL BE 587DM. THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT IN THE VLYS AND THE INTERIOR OF
COASTAL SECTIONS ON SATURDAY WITH ABOUT 2 DEGREES OF COOLING EACH
DAY AFTER. MAYBE A LITTLE MORE RIGHT AT THE BEACHES. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MOLLIFIED ONLY BY THE LACK OF REAL
STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...

30/0530Z

MARINE LAYER AT KLAX AT 0325Z IS 700 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION
TOP IS 1500 FEET WITH A TEMPERATURES OF 22 DEGREES C.

OVERALL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF PACKAGE...EXCEPT FOR KSMX WHERE
THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF NO CIGS AT ALL.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF. THERE IS A 15% CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 10Z AND 17Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 06Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...

30/310 AM

ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR ALL
OUTER WATERS THROUGH LATE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ACROSS THE INNER WATERS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REMAINING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR WEAK TO LOCALLY
MODERATE OFFSHORE (NORTHEASTERLY) WINDS BETWEEN VENTURA AND MALIBU
AND POSSIBLY OUT TO THE CHANNEL ISLANDS. THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN WINDS REACHING LOW END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH NOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS. WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE ON
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

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