Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 272311 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
315 PM PST THU NOV 27 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD WILL SLOWLY FLATTEN AND OFFSHORE BREEZES
WILL GRADUALLY TURN ONSHORE...BEGINNING A COOLING TREND ON FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON THE
CENTRAL COAST ON SUNDAY...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...
IF YOU LIKE IT SUNNY AND WARM THEN THIS IS A HAPPY THANKSGIVING FOR
YOU.  TEMPS STARTED OFF EVEN WARMER THAN YESTERDAY THROUGHOUT THE
REGION AND SEVERAL RECORD HIGH TEMPS HAVE ALREADY BEEN GOBBLED UP.
WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT HAVE TURNED ONSHORE AT THE COAST SO NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH MORE WARMING TODAY ALONG THE COASTLINE.  VALLEY AND
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS COULD STILL GO UP A FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE THE
DAY IS DONE.  A LITTLE CLOUDIER ON FRIDAY...MOSTLY OVER THE WATER
AND NEAR THE SHORE BUT PREDOMINANTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE.  A LITTLE EDDY AND A GENERAL ONSHORE PUSH SHOULD BRING
BACK THE MARINE LAYER ON SATURDAY MORNING.  BY THE AFTERNOON WE
SHOULD BE SEEING SOME CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT
WILL DRIVE THE NARRATIVE FOR NEXT WEEK.  THE ONSHORE WINDS AND CLOUD
COVER SHOULD HAVE US BACK DOWN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY IS SOMETHING OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
LOW PRESSURE WAVES ENTERS THE AREA.  EVERYWHERE IN THE AREA WILL BE
CLOUDIER AND THE TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP.  MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT NORTHWEST SLO COUNTY SHOULD GET SOME MEASURABLE RAIN
BY MONDAY MORNING BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A TENTH TO A QUARTER
INCH.  THE REST OF THE AREA COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN SO HAVE SOME
POPS IN THE FORECAST BUT REALLY NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A TENTH
ANYWHERE IF EVEN THAT MUCH.

.LONG TERM (MON-THUR)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL AGREEMENT?  ITS JUST NOT THERE FROM MONDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.  AS DISCUSSED IN EARLIER AFDS...THE
PROBLEM IS THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF AN UPPER LOW THAT FORMS OVER
THE ALEUTIANS FRIDAY EVENING AND THEN TAKES A SSE TRACK TO A POINT
ABOUT 1200 MILES WEST OF PT CONCEPTION. AFTER IT GETS THERE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS NO AGREEMENT ON HOW FAR OR FAST THIS LOW WILL
TRACK TO THE EAST NOR ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IT WILL ENTRAIN ON ITS
EASTWARD JOURNEY. THE GFS REMAINS FAST AND WET WITH GOOD RAINFALL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE EC IS MUCH SLOWER AND BRINGS IN A STORM
WITH LESS RAINFALL WEDNESDAY THAT LINGERS TO FRIDAY.

KEEPING A GENERALIZED CLOUDY FORECAST WITH A CHANCE RAIN GOING EACH
DAY IN THE EXTENDED UNTIL THERE IS MORE AGREEMENT.  IN EITHER
SOLUTION WE SHOULD GET AT LEAST SOME RAIN NEXT WEEK AND ANY IS
WELCOME...BUT IT WILL TAKE MANY MANY RAIN EVENTS TO ULTIMATELY GIVE
CALIFORNIA THE DROUGHT RELIEF IT NEEDS.

&&

.AVIATION...27/2315Z...
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
FRI.

AT LAX AT 2230Z THERE WAS A SURFACE BASED INVERSION...WITH AN
INVERSION TOP IS OF 1400 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 27 DEGREES C.

KLAX...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH CAVU CONDS THROUGH
THE PD.

KBUR...VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z TAF WITH CAVU CONDS THROUGH
THE PD.

&&

.MARINE...27/200 PM...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE EAST WHILE WEAKENING THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL THEN PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY WHILE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SOUTH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY CREATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHERN CHANNEL ISLANDS TO POINT PIEDRAS
BLANCAS. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST AND APPROACHES THE
COAST NEXT WEEK MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SEAS GENERATED SOUTH OF THE
LOW CENTER WITHIN A LIMITED FETCH AREA AND ORIENTED BETWEEN 240-270
DEGREES RELATIVE TO THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ARRIVE LATE
TUESDAY AND BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SMALL CRAFT FOR HAZARDOUS
SEA CONDITIONS AREA POSSIBLE.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JLD
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

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