Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 021629
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 AM PDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY THEN WARMING A FEW DEGREES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  COOL AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.  OVERNIGHT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...VERY QUIET THIS WEEK, ASIDE FROM THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME INCREASING SOUTHERLY SWELL AND SURF LATER IN THE
WEEK. MARINE LYR UP TO ABOUT 2600` IN THE LA BASIN AND AROUND 1500`
N OF PT CONCEPTION. THERE SHOULD BE SOME DEEPENING EACH NIGHT
THROUGH THU AS THE WEST COAST TROF CONTINUES TO FORCE THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SW FURTHER EAST. AS A RESULT, LOOK FOR
TEMPS TO COOL A COUPLE DEGREES EACH DAY WHILE LOW CLOUDS PUSH
FURTHER AND FURTHER INLAND. BY THU HIGHS WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
ALL EXTENDED MDLS AGREE THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD AND BUMP UP THE HGTS AND SMOOSH THE MARINE LAYER SOME. LOOK
FOR A SMALL INCREASE IN TEMPS AND A SMALL DECREASE IN MARINE LAYER
EACH DAY.

XTND MDLS DO DEVELOP ANOTHER HURRICANE NEAR BAJA AND MOVE IT ALONG A
PATH SIMILAR TO MARIE (A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE NORTH) NEXT SUNDAY.
GFS AND EC THEN DISAGREE ABOUTS ITS FATE BUT NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS
IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL AFFECT SO CAL WEATHER ALTHOUGH IT
MIGHT AFFECT THE SURF.

&&

.AVIATION...02/1130Z...

OVERALL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF PACKAGE. LATEST AMDAR
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MARINE INVERSION BASED AROUND 1500 FEET...AND
STRATUS/FOG HAS FILLED INTO THE COASTAL VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THRU LATE MORNING...IFR/MVFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL SOUTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST. CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON (AT THE LATEST) BUT WILL RETURN
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. TIMING OF DISSIPATION OF MVFR
CONDS COULD BE AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THAN CURRENT 18Z FORECAST. FOR
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STRATUS RETURN...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

KBUR...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 12Z TAF. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF
STRATUS TONIGHT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

&&

.MARINE...02/900 AM...

OVERALL...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CURRENT FORECAST. THROUGH
THE WEEK...WEAK TO LOCALLY MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME LOCAL
GUSTS REACHING SMALL CRAFT LEVELS AROUND POINT CONCEPTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THE GUSTS TO BE WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR ANY ADVISORIES.

&&

.BEACHES...02/900 AM...

A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL (18-20 SECONDS) ORIGINATING FROM THE
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN PEAK FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. ELEVATED SURF AND HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH FACING BEACHES OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME. WHILE THE SURF HEIGHTS WILL NOT BE NEARLY
AS HIGH AS WE SAW WITH HURRICANE MARIE...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT HIGH
SURF ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OF 7 FEET OR GREATER WILL OCCUR ACROSS
FAVORED SOUTH FACING SHORES.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...RAT/SWEET
SYNOPSIS...KJ

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