Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 031841
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1030 AM PST TUE MAR 3 2015

...NEW AVIATION/MARINE DISCUSSIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY AND KICK OFF A PERIOD OF
CLEAR WEATHER WITH A WARMING TREND THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND.
AFTERNOON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL LATER THIS WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)..SUNNY SKIES TODAY EXCEPT FOR SOME LINGERING
BACK SIDE LOW CLOUDS SPILLING OVER FROM THE CENTRAL VALLEY THIS
MORNING. A QUIET DAY OVERALL WITH A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING.

MODELS SHOWING INCREASING SANTA ANA WINDS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THIS SHOULD BE A SUB-ADVISORY EVENT WITH WINDS
PEAKING AROUND 40-45 IN THE LA/VENTURA MTNS AND 30 OR SO IN THE
VALLEYS. DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LIMIT THE ADIABATIC WARMING
TO THE LEE OF THE MTNS BUT LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD STILL CLIMB TO
THE LOWER 70S IN MOST AREAS.

MORE WARMING THU WITH SLIGHTLY LESS WIND.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
LONG RANGE MDLS DONT EXACTLY MATCH UP THROUGH THE XTND PERIOD BUT
THEY ARE NOT RADICALLY DIFFERENT. ALL FORECAST SOME DEGREE OF
RIDGING. THERE WILL BE OFFSHORE FLOW ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
MDLS DISAGREE ON WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE OFFSHORE FLOW ON
SUNDAY AND ALL AGREE THAT THE SFC FLOW WILL BE ONSHORE MONDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL MAX
TEMPS WITH THE WARMEST LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE LOWER 80S. RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY.

A LITTLE COOLER SUNDAY (OR A LITTLE MORE COOLER IF THE MORE ONSHORE
FORECAST WORKS OUT) AND THE COOLER STILL ON MONDAY. CANT RULE OUT
SOME MARINE LAYER CLOUDS MONDAY BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THEM
OUT...OTHERWISE SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR (PARTLY CLOUDY AT
WORST) THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...03/1800Z.

AT 1728Z...THERE WAS NO MARINE INVERSION AT KLAX.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. VFR CONDS ANTICIPATED THRU THE
PERIOD.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. VFR CONDS ANTICIPATED THRU THE
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...03/900 AM...

FOR THE OUTER WATERS...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...AND
THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR
THE SOUTHERN TWO OUTER WATERS ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH
A CHANCE OF WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS ZONE. BY WEDNESDAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

FOR THE INNER WATERS...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS
REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN
SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL. FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE
SOME WEAK NORTHEASTERLY WINDS NEAR SHORE EACH NIGHT AND MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
AVIATION/MARINE...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...SUKUP

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