Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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853
FXUS66 KLOX 251604
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
904 AM PDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Low pressure will move across the area today, resulting in cool
weather and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for the
mountains and interior areas. Warming is expected for the end of
the week and into the weekend as the main upper low moves east,
with near normal temperatures for the weekend and early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-FRI)

Latest satellite shows a broad swatch of stratocumulus across the
area this morning, especially across inland areas, while radar
indicates some very light showers moving across interior SBA
county. Upper low is currently spinning over the bight and will
move eastward/inland today. With deep moist layer in place
(around 6000 feet) and lift associated with the upper low, inland
areas will likely remain partly/mostly cloudy through the
afternoon while coastal areas get some sunshine. Current soundings
indicate 500 mb temperatures around -21 degrees Celsius, so there
is a bit of instability across interior sections. However cloud
cover will likely limit surface heating. So, there is a low
probability of thunderstorms developing this afternoon. So
overall, think the current slight chance showers/thunderstorms
over interior sections today handles this very well.

Overall, current forecast looks pretty good with slight chance
pops over interior sections of the district today and continued
cool afternoon high temperatures. One point of focus with the
afternoon forecast will be the potential for some low-end advisory
level sundowner winds across southern Santa Barbara county.

*** From previous discussion ***

The upper low exits the area quickly later in the afternoon and
should take the convective threat along with it leaving the
evening rain free. Clouds will diminish overnight except for the
central coast where the marine inversion will reform and lead to a
well developed stratus layer.

Partly cloudy at worst on Thursday. Hgts rise through the day and
max temps will bump up a few degrees but max temps will still
remain blo normals.

Ridging moves into the area Thursday night and this will
reestablish the marine inversion. Small craft advisory winds
across the outer waters will spin up an eddy and low clouds will
cover most of the coasts and vlys by sunrise.

Neither the eddy or the onshore flow will be strong enough to keep
the low clouds in and skies will be mostly clear by the afternoon.
the marine layer will keep the coasts cool and the vly to a less
degree...inland temps however will jump nicely.

.LONG TERM...(SAT-TUE)

Extended models showing weak upper level trough across California
over the weekend, with continued strong onshore flow near the
surface. This will maintain mild temperatures, along with night
and morning marine layer clouds, and gusty onshore winds in the
mountains and deserts. Some weak upper level ridging expected to
follow Monday into Tuesday, leading to a few degrees of warming
across interior areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
25/1200Z

At 1145Z at KLAX...There was a 6500 foot deep marine layer. There
was a weak inversion above the marine layer or moist layer with a
top of 7500 feet and a temperature of 3 degrees celsius,

There will continue to be low confidence with the 12z tafs. The
combination of a deep moist layer, weak inversion and an upper low
moving overhead today, makes it difficult to pin point how many
cloud layers there will be. There will be higher confidence that
there will not be lower than mvfr cigs over the next 24 hours.
There is a 30 percent chance that coastal cigs could clear out
later today. Some LLWS and UDDF will be possible around KSBA from
21z-8z this evening into Thu morning.

KLAX...Low confidence in 12z TAF. There is a good chance there
will be an equal possibility through the next 24 hours that there
will be no cigs under MVFR But it will vary from low MVFR to VFR.
There is a 20 % chance for no cigs after 18z.

KBUR...Low confidence in 12z TAF. Cigs of 015 025 and 035 are equally
possible over the next 24 hours. Or a 30 percent chance that no
cigs will develop after 02z this evening through the overnight
hours. There is a 30 percent chc of BKN025 aft 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...25/900 AM

Mainly light winds and small seas are expected through Wednesday
morning, with no SCA concerns. Small Craft Advisories have been
issued for all coastal waters beginning this afternoon. The outer
waters SCA will continue through at least mid morning on Friday,
while the inner waters will expire overnight. Confidence is 70%
that another SCA will be needed for the northern and western
portion of the outer waters Friday afternoon through the weekend
with reduced confidence on Sunday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Thursday For zones 645-650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9
      PM PDT this evening For zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9
      AM PDT Friday For zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RAT/ASR
AVIATION...CK
MARINE...Sweet
SYNOPSIS...Munroe

weather.gov/losangeles



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