Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLUB 292338
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
638 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.AVIATION...
CONTINUED VFR THRU 31/00Z WITH NO THREAT FOR TSRA. DECAYING
COLD FRONT NEAR THE TERMINALS WILL WASH OUT OVERNIGHT KEEPING
WINDS LIGHT/VRB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE UA LOW THAT BROUGHT PERIODS OF BENEFICIAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SMALL TO SEVERE HAIL TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS YESTERDAY...HAS SINCE OPENED UP AND SHEARED OUT A BIT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN AND IS PROGGED TO GET SWEPT UP BY
THE WRLY FLOW ALOFT TO ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT.
AS SUCH...LARGE SCALE ASCENT HAS BEEN FLEETING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MANAGED TO
CONTINUALLY DEVELOP JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...NEAREST TO THE
THE BASE OF THE UA TROUGH AND BEST MOISTURE AXIS.
NONETHELESS...PRECIP DEVELOPMENT NEARING THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS IS
NOT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT BRIEFLY OCCURRED EARLIER
THIS AFTN. AS THE UA TROUGH MOVES FARTHER AWAY TONIGHT...SO WILL THE
PRECIP ACTIVITY.

A COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SINCE
EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT HAS SINCE STALLED THIS AFTN FROM A
MEMPHIS TO FLOYDADA TO TAHOKA LINE. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
THIS BOUNDARY AND SEE IF IT AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH MOST SOLUTIONS ARE PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THAT
PLAUSIBILITY DUE TO THE BOUNDARY BEING SO WEAK. ATTENTION QUICKLY
TURNS TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL PRECIP OPPORTUNITY COURTESY OF NW FLOW
ALOFT AND EMBEDDED IMPULSES. STORMS ARE SHOWN TO DEVELOP ACROSS SRN
CO/NORTHERN NM TONIGHT...AND WITH FAVORABLE NW FLOW ALOFT...IT WILL
TRANSLATE SE TO ACROSS THE WRN AND SWRN TX PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY
IS SHOWN TO WANE A BIT BUT WILL RE-DEVELOP AND MOVE NEAR/ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS TOMORROW
AFTN/EVENING PER THE NAM AND ECMWF /THE GFS IS MUCH LESS BULLISH/.
WILL HOLD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NRN ZONES GIVEN
THE ENSUING EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE...PWATS OF AOA 1.00 INCH AND S-SE
SFC WINDS WORKING IN FAVOR OF THIS SCENARIO.

ON THE HEELS OF THE UA TROUGH IS INVADING DRY AIR ALOFT IMPINGING ON
THE REGION...WHICH WILL SLOWLY TRICKLE DOWN TO THE MID-LEVELS BY
TONIGHT PER PROGGED MODEL SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...LOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY MOIST AS DEWPOINTS PER 20Z METARS RANGED FROM THE
30S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE 70S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS /PWATS IN THE 0.75-1.60 RANGE/...AND WILL INCREASE INTO THE
50S AND 60S BY TONIGHT /PWATS IN THE 1.00-1.20 INCH RANGE/.
HENCE...IT IS NO WONDER THAT PRECIP WILL POTENTIALLY BE ABLE TO
LINGER INTO TONIGHT.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR SW TX
PANHANDLE TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. HIGHS
TOMORROW MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY /LOWER TO UPPER 90S/
THANKS TO RECENT RAINFALL BECOME LESS INFLUENTIAL. /29

LONG TERM...
LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING
WEEK. SOLUTIONS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT FOLLOWING THE WEAK
IMPULSE LATE SUNDAY...THE NEXT WAVE LATE MONDAY WILL BE WEAKER STILL.
SLIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SET IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY LEADING TO
ENHANCED DRY AND WARM WESTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS OUR AREA. TRENDS
SUPPORT FURTHER MID LEVEL WARMING WHICH LEANS TOWARDS MORE OF A
LID AS WELL. AND THICKNESS VALUES CONTINUE TO PEAK SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN LINE WITH EARLIER TRENDS AND CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWING
THOSE TWO AS THE WARMEST UPCOMING DAYS. AN ELONGATED WEST TO EAST
UPPER RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH A RIDGE
CENTER CLOSE...CONTINUING DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH...
PERHAPS AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. PATTERN SHOULD SHIFT EAST LATE IN THE WEEK AS NEXT
ROUND OF AMPLIFICATION DEVELOPS WITH A WESTERN TROUGH AND EASTERN
RIDGE. EARLY TRENDS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY THE MONSOONAL TAP TO OUR
WEST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        60  91  64  94  63 /   0  20  10  10  10
TULIA         64  92  66  95  67 /   0  20  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     65  92  67  94  67 /   0  20  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     65  91  66  94  66 /   0  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       66  94  69  96  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   64  92  67  95  66 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    66  93  67  95  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     68  96  72  98  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          71  95  69  97  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     72  97  73  98  74 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

93




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.