296
FXUS64 KLUB 142317
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
617 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

A weak upper low remains over the southern CA coast early this
afternoon with shortwave ridging extending eastward over NM and into
West TX. Widespread terrain-focused convection has already developed
over the NM higher elevations, with some additional high-based
cumulus extending along the TX/NM state line within a weak surface
trough axis at 2 PM. Surface flow has largely failed to obtain a
westerly component thus far today, but is still expected to veer
slightly through the rest of the afternoon which will result in a
weak/diffuse dryline establishing near or just east of I-27 by this
evening. The aforementioned cumulus field should continue to expand
eastward through the rest of the day as convective temperatures are
reached, with a few isolated high-based storms still possible given
MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg as convective temperatures are
reached. We still do not expect these storms to be particularly long-
lived given the modest large-scale subsidence overhead and the
diffuse nature of the dryline, but DCAPE values in excess of 1000
J/kg will support a strong wind gust threat beneath any storms which
develop. Convection will taper off quickly after sunset with mild
temperatures expected tonight as relatively strong southerly surface
flow continues.

Another very warm day is expected Wednesday with the day starting
out quiet as modest low level moisture continues to feed northward
within strong low level southerlies. The second half of the day has
the potential to be more active as mid/upper level flow strengthens
and veers more southwesterly which will in turn gradually sharpen a
dryline over the South Plains southward into the Permian Basin.
Large scale forcing for ascent will remain relatively weak through
most of the daytime hours which casts some uncertainty on the
overall coverage of afternoon/evening storms. Most guidance places
the nose of a low level theta-e ridge axis over the South Plains and
far southern TX Panhandle, and this in addition to convective
temperatures being easily reached once again is expected to result
in at least scattered storms developing during the late afternoon
hours with the highest potential coverage over the far southern TX
Panhandle. Severe potential currently appears skewed towards a
threat for damaging wind gusts of 60-70 mph beneath the strongest
storms given DCAPE values near 1500 J/kg, but a couple of storms may
also produce hail to quarter size. However, the better potential for
more widespread storms will be during the late evening hours
Wednesday into early Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

A surface cold front will slowly slide southward across our
forecast area Wednesday evening with continued thunderstorm
development along the front. A few of these storms may produce
gusty winds, however with possible training of thunderstorms heavy
rainfall is the more likely threat into early Thursday morning
primarily across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into the
northern Rolling Plains. The cold front should clear our forecast
area to the south by Thursday morning with easterly upslope flow
hence some low clouds will be possible. This post frontal airmass
will be cooler with high temperatures remaining mostly in the 70s.
An upper-level low will approach the forecast area Thursday
afternoon which should lead to additional shower and thunderstorm
development north of the cold front. Hence we will need to closely
watch how far south the cold front makes it by Thursday afternoon
to better refine where the greatest precipitation chances will
be. Upper- level ridging will begin to build back over the
forecast area Friday and become squarely positioned over the
forecast area this weekend into early next week keeping our area
hot and dry. Above average high temperatures in the mid to upper
90s are expected Saturday through early next week for most of our
forecast area. /WI

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 617 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Few TS near LBB and PVW with gusty and erratic winds are set to
dissipate near sunset ahead of LLWS conditions at all terminals
overnight. Breezy S-SW winds then develop by mid morning and will
pull greater moisture north through the day ultimately helping
with better TS chances by late afternoon and past 00Z Thursday
ahead of a cold front. Confidence in some late-day TS is greatest
at CDS, but this may expand to the other terminals if the front
accelerates.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...93