Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 232006

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
306 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

A cold front is currently pushing its way through the FA and
stretches along a line from Plains to O`Donnell. Wind direction will
be affected very little as a pre-frontal trough has already shifted
the winds to a more northerly direction. Winds behind the front will
be out of the north-northeast and wind speeds will increase to
around 20 to 25 mph sustained. Temperatures will also drop a few
degrees once the front has passed. Wind speeds should decrease to
the 10 to 15 mph range by the evening. Continues northerly winds and
slight (not strong by any means) CAA will help keep tomorrow roughly
10 degrees cooler than today.

A surface high will push off to the south and east by Wednesday
morning bringing southwesterly surface winds back into the FA
allowing a temporary warm up ahead of another approaching cold
front. This next front will be the strongest so far this season as a
H500 ridge is progged to sit across the Pacific coast while
amplifying northward into southeastern AK. This will give a near
meridional fetch of colder air from northern Canada and the AK
interior where temps currently range from below 0 to the low 20s.
The lack of a snow pack in southern Canada and the northern CONUS
will allow for airmass modification but will still be on the cold
side nonetheless. Temps should be able to get to sub-freezing across
our northwestern zones Friday morning by way of CAA. Saturday
morning temps will be more of a challenge. Model guidance has been
up and down with lows for Saturday morning with the current runs
coming cooler than previously shown. Today`s forecast will keep lows
below raw model guidance with temps ranging from the upper 20s to 32
across the whole FA. Factors that will ultimately affect how cold or
warm temps will be are: 1) cloud cover and 2) placement of the
surface high. Previously models were going gang busters with
producing post frontal precipitation thus leaving cloud cover
lingering through at least Saturday afternoon. Models have since
dried out (as we have no pops left in the forecast) and are also
continue to decrease cloud cover run to run. The placement of the
surface ridge will be near the FA. If the ridge is overhead and
skies are mostly clear as is currently expected then temps could be
much colder than what is currently forecasted. If the ridge moves
south of the FA that would allow winds to be out of the southwest
and would make temps warmer than forecasted. More confidence in the
temp forecast should be gained as the week progresses.

The surface ridge will push south and east of the region by Sunday
bringing surface winds back to the southwest and warm temps back
into the 70s. The ridge across the west coast is progged to
deamplify ahead of another cold front by early next week.





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